The College Football Thread 11/19 - 11/23

[Damaramu 0]

Remember when OU was rolling over everybody in 2003, then they met Kansas State...

 

That's true, and that was the beginning of their big game slide. And Mizzou is way better than that KSU team was. So I'm not going to count my chickens before they hatch. I'm not saying I expect them to roll everyone they play, but I'm not exactly expecting any big time chokejobs this year.

 

Didn't you think the Bedlam game could give them trouble? I mean, they put a lot of themselves into tonight's game. I could see a situation where they arrive in Stillwater burnt out. Though I do fully expect Oklahoma to win out and give us a decently exciting title game against the SEC champion.

 

I do expect Bedlam to give them trouble, and I think it's very possible that they could lose that game. What I'm saying is that I don't expect a huge chokejob in the pass. I see a difference between a 3-10 point loss and a 21-28 point blowout where you were supposed to be competitive.

[iggymcfly 0]

Once again, "Texas beat Oklahoma so they should be ranked higher" simply does not work now that we have 3 one-loss teams from the same conference who are all 1-1 against each other. The season now has to be evaluated in its totality, and I think Oklahoma, with its demolition of Texas Tech, close loss against Texas, and its two high quality OOC wins (probable Big East champion Cincinnati and Mountain West #2 TCU), has the best resume of any 1-loss team in the country.

 

TT beat Texas on a last second play and got violated on national TV by OU.

Texas beat OU by 10 and lost on a last second play to TT or they'd still be undefeated.

OU destroyed TT at home, but lost by 10 against Texas.

 

The way I see it, if you eliminate TT from the discussion at this point (which you should since they lost by 44), then I look at the head to head as being more significant than a team getting beat on a last second play. OU has the better schedule minus the Texas game, but they lost to Texas and shouldn't leapfrog them and Florida in the BCS because they beat the shit out of a team that probably falls all the way out of the top 10 tomorrow. I just don't like the idea that Alabama/Florida will all but lock up a slot in the title game and assuming they both win out Oklahoma will end up ahead of Texas despite losing to them.

 

This is possibly the dumbest argument I've ever heard. So if Oklahoma had beaten Texas Tech by 20, they'd have a fair case to be in the national championship, but since they beat them by 44, their win doesn't count for as much any more and now Texas gets the spot? Give me a fucking break.

 

The only legitimate argument for Texas is that they lost on the road and OU lost at a neutral site, but after the shellacking the Sooners put on Texas Tech tonight, they definitely deserve to go if they win out. Beat Oklahoma State, beat Missouri, you're in the national championship. Period. End of story. Lose either of those games and Texas is in.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

I wonder who goes to the Big XII game if Oklahoma loses to State, Texas or Tech? Because Texas lost to Tech, but Tech had the worst loss.

[Damaramu 0]

I wonder who goes to the Big XII game if Oklahoma loses to State, Texas or Tech? Because Texas lost to Tech, but Tech had the worst loss.

 

Tech. It's a 2-way tie between Tech and Texas and Tech has the tie-breaker.

 

Stoops just said it "If you can't put us ahead of Texas then you can't put Texas ahead of Tech because Tech beat Texas."

[iggymcfly 0]

Here's my new college football rankings with everything sorted out objectively.

 

(Previous week's ranking in parenthesis)

1. Florida 10-1 (2)

2. Oklahoma 10-1 (6)

3. Alabama 11-0 (3)

4. Texas 10-1 (4)

5. USC 9-1 (5)

6. Penn State 11-1 (7)

7. Texas Tech 10-1 (1)

8. Utah 12-0 (10)

9. Boise State 11-0 (8)

10. Ohio State 10-2 (9)

11. Oklahoma State 9-2 (11)

12. Missouri 9-2 (12)

13. TCU 10-2 (13)

14. Georgia 9-2 (14)

15. Oregon State 8-3 (15)

16. Ball State 11-0 (17)

17. Iowa 8-4 (22)

18. Oregon 8-3 (19)

19. California 7-4 (23)

20. Florida State 8-3 (NR)

21. Georgia Tech 8-3 (NR)

22. Michigan State 9-3 (16)

23. Boston College 8-3 (NR)

24. Cincinnati 9-2 (NR)

25. BYU 10-2 (18)

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Florida #1 for beating Citadel? Really? I'd put Oklahoma at #1.

[MFer 0]

In the real barnburner of the day, Abilene Christian beat West Texas A&M in a D-II playoff game by a score of 93-68.

[Psycho Penguin 0]

Texas Tech can still make the national title if OU loses next week, that's the fun part!

[iggymcfly 0]

Florida #1 for beating Citadel? Really? I'd put Oklahoma at #1.

 

Well, the 6 games before they played the Citadel, they did just beat 6 SEC teams by at least 28 points each. Oklahoma's played 3 great games in a row, but before that they gave up 35 points to Kansas and 31 to Kansas State.

 

Obviously, I'm nit-picking to criticize Oklahoma though. The Sooners and Gators look to be head and shoulders above anyone else in the country right now and if they played on a neutral field tomorrow, I'd say a fair line would be something like Florida -1.

[iggymcfly 0]

Texas Tech can still make the national title if OU loses next week, that's the fun part!

 

No, they can't. 11-1 Texas and 11-1 USC would both go over a 12-1 Texas Tech team that won the Big XII title. The pollsters just do not allow teams that were blown out in November to play for national titles under any circumstance. In the old days, they could get overruled by the computers, but the system's been painstakingly re-designed specifically to prevent that from ever happening again.

[Psycho Penguin 0]

Texas Tech can still make the national title if OU loses next week, that's the fun part!

 

No, they can't. 11-1 Texas and 11-1 USC would both go over a 12-1 Texas Tech team that won the Big XII title.

 

 

Right, except USC is 9-1 right now.

 

(I guess I could have clarified what I meant, but OU losing to OSU would be the first in a series of steps needed)

[Psycho Penguin 0]

Texas Tech can still make the national title if OU loses next week, that's the fun part!

 

No, they can't. 11-1 Texas and 11-1 USC would both go over a 12-1 Texas Tech team that won the Big XII title. The pollsters just do not allow teams that were blown out in November to play for national titles under any circumstance. In the old days, they could get overruled by the computers, but the system's been painstakingly re-designed specifically to prevent that from ever happening again.

 

I see you edited. Uh, Oklahoma lost 35-7 IN THEIR LAST GAME in 2003 and went. Nebraska lost their LAST GAME 62-36 or some nonsense and went in 2001. And the computers account for even more of the BCS now.

[BruteSquad_BRODY 0]

Did anyone watch Wisconsin beat a Division I AA Team in OT thanks to a missed FG?

 

Well almost losing was bad enough, but after they hit the game winning Xtra point (Cal's kicker missed a FG and 3 XP's) one of the Badger's o-linemen ripped his helmet off and celebrated like they just won the Rose Bowl

 

My roomate and I laughed for many minutes as they kept replaying the PAT

 

[iggymcfly 0]

Texas Tech can still make the national title if OU loses next week, that's the fun part!

 

No, they can't. 11-1 Texas and 11-1 USC would both go over a 12-1 Texas Tech team that won the Big XII title. The pollsters just do not allow teams that were blown out in November to play for national titles under any circumstance. In the old days, they could get overruled by the computers, but the system's been painstakingly re-designed specifically to prevent that from ever happening again.

 

I see you edited. Uh, Oklahoma lost 35-7 IN THEIR LAST GAME in 2003 and went. Nebraska lost their LAST GAME 62-36 or some nonsense and went in 2001. And the computers account for even more of the BCS now.

 

No, they account for less. It was originally over half if you count the SOS+W/L as a rudimentary computer ranking (which it was). Then, they dropped those and made it 50/50 polls + computer rankings. Then, that still wasn't good enough to prevent the computers from holding sway so they made it 2/3 polls and 1/3 computer rankings which is the current system. So if all the computers have Texas Tech over USC and 68% of the voters pick USC while 32% pick Texas Tech, then USC's the team that goes to the national title game.

 

It's literally impossible for Texas Tech to get in now. Not only would USC and Texas go over them, in a pinch I think Penn State and Utah would as well (who are both all done playing).

[Psycho Penguin 0]

After last year's mess at the end, I would not count Tech out. Yes, it seems VERY improbable right now.. but voters have short memories. If they beat Baylor by 70, OU loses bad to OSU, and Tech beats Missouri 68-14 or some ridiculous score.. it could happen.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

I think it's a very tough call between Texas and Oklahoma right now as to who I think should get that Big XII championship game slot. I'm not considering Texas Tech at the moment, more because of their comparatively weaker schedule than the fact that they got housed tonight. Oklahoma's out of conference opponents have really made them look good this year; they're 3-1 against teams currently in the top-20 of the BCS. Then again, so is Texas. The head-to-head victory still has me inclining slightly towards Texas at the moment, although an Oklahoma win next week to get them 4-1 against the BCS top-20 would make the decision even more difficult.

 

I'm glad to see Utah get a chance at a better team than they did the first time they made it to the BCS, even if this team probably doesn't quite touch them in talent. Looks like they'll draw either USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, or Alabama.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

This is interesting because it literally comes down to: Do you favor the hot hand (Oklahoma) or do you favor the head to head match up (Texas).

 

I'd give my vote to Texas because they already beat Oklahoma 45-35 and they lost to Texas Tech on a crazy late touchdown. Also one of Oklahoma's wins came over Tennessee-Chattanooga whereas Texas' softest win was over a 5-5 Florida Atlantic team.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Some news and I-AA scores of note

 

- Iona is axing its football program

- Murray State beat Tennessee State 24-17

- Youngstown State beat Western Illinois 31-28

- Eastern Washington upset Weber State 33-26

- Wisconsin beat Cal Poly 36-35. BTW: Cal Poly's ranked #3 by The Sports Network in the FCS so they aren't a push over by any means.

- Central Arkansas blew out McNeese State 47-30. I expect CA to make noise over the next several seasons.

[Damaramu 0]

I just still don't see how you can use the H2H matches when they're all 1-1 against each other. It's a vicious circle of "OU can't be ahead of Texas because they lost to Texas, but Texas can't be ahead of Tech because they lost to Tech, but Tech can't be ahead of OU because they lost to OU, but OU can't be ahead........etc."

I think OU gains ground on Texas this week and makes them really close, then if they beat OSU next week they jump ahead. They should have the edge in the computers especially after beating #2 and possibly #12 next week.

The fact Cincy and TCU keep winning also really helps OU.

 

 

"If you can't move us in front of Texas because they beat us, then you have to keep Texas Tech in front of Texas," Stoops said, but he wasn't done there. Next up was a shot at one-loss Florida.

 

"If you're going to forgive a team for losing at home to an unranked team because they're playing well now, well, we're playing pretty well now, too. If it's logical for someone else, it's logical for us."

 

The man has a point.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

I just still don't see how you can use the H2H matches when they're all 1-1 against each other. It's a vicious circle of "OU can't be ahead of Texas because they lost to Texas, but Texas can't be ahead of Tech because they lost to Tech, but Tech can't be ahead of OU because they lost to OU, but OU can't be ahead........etc."

That's not what Harley and I are doing. Neither of us is considering Texas Tech as a possibility because of the poor strength of schedule (2 FCS opponents, primarily) as compared to Texas and Oklahoma. Texas beat Oklahoma head to head, and depending on how you view the opponents, Texas may have the tougher schedule as well (remember: no FCS opponent for Texas, and Rice actually turned out to be one of the top teams in C-USA). If you take a look at Jeff Sagarin's updated strength-of-schedule rankings, Texas currently has the 5th toughest schedule while Oklahoma has the 26th. I expect those will get closer since Oklahoma State is a good opponent and Texas A&M isn't.

 

So, no, it's not just a "vicious circle." There are a fair number of strong arguments in favor of each team, and if both teams win out, I'm not sure what's going to happen.

[Damaramu 0]

I think you can only account for the head to head if it was OU vs. Texas. Because then the Texas beat OU argument makes perfect sense. But, with Tech being the team that is in this 3-way tie (and no matter how badly they got beat, they are in the 3-way tie) then that muddles it up. Because if you say OU can't be ahead of Texas because Texas beat OU then you can't put Texas ahead of Tech because Tech beat Texas. That is where that logic is coming up at for me. I don't care how the games went.

Because if you want to say "Well Tech got blown out. So there out which means OU can't go because they lost to Texas." And you're taking into account the way Tech lost then you have to take into account the way OU lost to Texas. And in that game they were dominating until the leader of their defense got injured. So Texas' victory isn't exactly all rosy where they beat the best OU team they could beat. And if OU and Texas played again today, I think OU would probably win based on how hot they are right now.

 

That's why you have to go with who's playing the best football right now and it's pretty obviously OU. Texas barely beat OSU and then got beaten by Tech. OU's destroyed everything in it's path since the Texas game.

 

You're right about there being plenty of arguments for both teams, I just don't think "Texas beat OU end of story" is one of them because this is a 3-way tie, not a 2-way tie for the South crown. I'm not even talking about national titles right now either. I'm talking about who wins the Big XII south.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

You keep throwing up straw men about the way teams lost or Texas Tech or whatever, when I'm not saying that. I'm talking about strength of schedule and the virtues of a head to head win if you eliminate Texas Tech from the discussion, which I think is a completely feasible argument to make for reasons already laid out. No one's going to talk with you anymore if you keep typing the same thing over and over. Don't go down this path again.

[Psycho Penguin 0]

Yeah, but then if you're eliminating Tech, you have to realize TEXAS LOST TO TECH. They lost to a worse team than Oklahoma did.

 

Also, "softest win"? Really? Oklahoma beat TCU. And I'm pretty sure Rice and FAU aren't as good as TCU.

[naiwf 0]

A loss that took place on the final second on the road is not as bad of a loss as a 10 point defeat at a neutral site. It doesn't matter though since Texas is # 4 in the AP behind Alabama, Florida and OU, and that's exactly how I see the BCS numbers playing out later which means that Texas won't play for the championship unless OU loses again even though they beat them. It's just another reason the BCS solves nothing.

 

[Psycho Penguin 0]

The BCS is not a playoff system! Head to head has never mattered! Because then you have to put Texas Tech ahead of Texas! They both only have one loss! It's a BCS! We should learn to live with it by now, instead of complaining every damn year about the same things.

 

Also, I think Texas will be ahead of Oklahoma in the BCS standings, call it a hunch, but if OU wins at OSU, they will move ahead.

 

Go Cowboys, please. I actually like Texas a lot more than OU, I am just trying to be reasonable about this system.

[Damaramu 0]

Well OU is ahead of Texas in the coaches poll. A win next week might just seal the deal. It'll help in the computers and give OU another T25 win while Texas plays a really bad A&M team. It looks like OU just has to win out now to get into the Big XII title game. I bet Texas is still ahead in the BCS (and we haven't seen the Harris Poll, they could be 2 for all we know) but only by a slim margin.

 

I think an OU vs. Florida national title game would be pretty good, plus there'd be about 150 points scored.

 

 

And yeah Penguin is kind of right about OU's nonconference. It was better than Texas'. OU romped the probable Big East champion and TCU who's ranked in the top 15 I believe. The only reason they played Chattanooga is because Middle Tennessee dropped out right before the season started and they had to scramble for a replacement. It's not like they were scheming for a year to beat up on a 1-AA opponent.

 

And I just really don't agree with throwing Tech out of the argument in a 3-way tie Edwin. I'm sorry, that's why I keep throwing it out there because I just don't agree with what you said. I'm still allowed to do that right?

[naiwf 0]

And I just really don't agree with throwing Tech out of the argument in a 3-way tie.

 

They're not in the hunt anymore. They CANNOT play for the nat'l title because of how badly they lost yesterday. That's why you can take them out of the argument. The winner of Alabama/Florida will be in the game and the loser is out of the discussion even if Alabama loses in OT by a single point. That leaves Texas and Oklahoma and the H2H should matter because they actually played each other. It's silly to say that all of the other games they played were more important than you know, the one where they played EACH OTHER and Texas won by 10 at a neutral site. In every other sport H2H is the main tiebreaker, but in college football it's the other games which is why the system is the drizzles.

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

And I just really don't agree with throwing Tech out of the argument in a 3-way tie.

 

They're not in the hunt anymore. They CANNOT play for the nat'l title because of how badly they lost yesterday. That's why you can take them out of the argument. The winner of Alabama/Florida will be in the game and the loser is out of the discussion even if Alabama loses in OT by a single point. That leaves Texas and Oklahoma and the H2H should matter because they actually played each other. It's silly to say that all of the other games they played were more important than you know, the one where they played EACH OTHER and Texas won by 10 at a neutral site. In every other sport H2H is the main tiebreaker, but in college football it's the other games which is why the system is the drizzles.

 

But this isn't about the national title or BCS championship game, it's about who wins the Big 12 South and plays in the Big 12 title game. And as far as that goes, Texas Tech is most definitely still in the hunt, because if they win and Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, then TT plays Missouri, not Texas. You claim "In every other sport H2H is the main tiebreaker, but in college football it's the other games" which is simply not true IF you can actually do head-to-head, which you can't do here because of the potential three-way tie. Other sports use secondary tiebreakers like strength of schedule, points differential, road record, etc. as supplementary tiebreakers. Why is it such a big deal that certain college football conferences look at the BCS rankings?

[Damaramu 0]

Exactly. I don't know where you guys are getting that I'm talking about the national title race here. I'm talking about who wins the Big XII south.

[Psycho Penguin 0]

The Big 12 South goes to the top BCS team. Tech has no chance of winning a 3 way tie.

 

They need OSU to beat OU and they need to beat Baylor.