Dave Parker - Rightfielder
Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-1983
Cincinnati Reds 1984-1987
Oakland Athletics 1988-1989
Milwaukee Brewers 1990
California Angels 1991
Toronto Blue Jays 1991
11th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
1997: 17.55%
1998: 24.52%
1999: 16.10%
2000: 20.84%
2001: 16.31%
2002: 13.98%
2003: 10.28%
2004: 10.47%
2005: 12.60%
2006: 14.42%
Awards
1977 NL Gold Glove - OF
1978 NL MVP
1978 NL Gold Glove - OF
1979 NL Gold Glove - OF
1985 NL Silver Slugger - OF
1986 NL Silver Slugger - OF
1990 AL Silver Slugger - DH
All-Star Selections: 7 (1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1985, 1986, 1990)
League Leader
1975: Slugging %
1977: Batting Average, Hits, Doubles
1978: Batting Average, Total Bases, Runs Created, Slugging %, OPS, OPS+
1985: Doubles, RBI, Total Bases
1986: Total Bases
Career Ranks
Games: 55th
Hits: 55th
2B: 31st
HR: 80th
RBI: 47th
TB: 42nd
RC: 68th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 26 (68) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 145 (97) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 41.1 (138) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 125.5 (107) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 2 (Tony Perez, Billy Williams)
Other Similar Batters: Luis Gonzalez, Harold Baines, Andre Dawson, Al Oliver, Jim Rice, Rusty Staub, Chili Davis, Dwight Evans
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1973: 4/1.4
1974: 6/1.5
1975: 26/8.6
1976: 23/5.8
1977: 33/10.3
1978: 37/8.8
1979: 31/8.5
1980: 17/3.7
1981: 6/1.1
1982: 7/1.8
1983: 12/4.1
1984: 17/3.4
1985: 29/7.9
1986: 20/4.4
1987: 13/3.2
1988: 10/2.2
1989: 15/3.6
1990: 15/4.9
1991: 6/0.9
Career Win Shares: 327
Career WARP3: 86.3
Would he get my vote?
No. I'll always have a soft spot for the Cobra for the 1989 postseason where he pissed off all around douche bag Kelly Gruber for his flaps down homerun trot in the ALCS and also hit the first of many homeruns for the A's in the World Series. Also I'll say that for anyone who argues Jim Rice for the HOF they better also argue for Parker as well as I don't see how Rice is so close to being elected yet Parker has no chance at all. That being said I couldn't give him the imaginary vote mainly because when you get past his great peak of the late 70's he had a really ordinary career once the 80's started. Outside of 1985 in that decade he was an average and sometimes below average corner outfielder. Had a rifle for an arm and it appears he did deserve his 1977 Gold Glove (26 assists) but overall he was not a good defensive outfielder.
Alan Trammell - Shortstop
Detroit Tigers 1977-1996
6th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
2002: 15.68%
2003: 14.11%
2004: 13.83%
2005: 16.86%
2006: 17.69%
Awards
1980 AL Gold Glove - SS
1981 AL Gold Glove - SS
1983 AL Gold Glove - SS
1984 AL Gold Glove - SS
1984 World Series MVP
All-Star Selections: 6 (1980, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1990)
League Leader
None of note
Career Ranks
None of note
Hall of Fame Stats
Gray Ink: Batting - 48 (505) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 40.4 (146) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 118.5 (116) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 2 (Ryne Sandberg, Pee Wee Reese)
Other Similar Batters: Barry Larkin, B.J. Surhoff, Jay Bell, Lou Whitaker, Tony Fernandez, Julio Franco, Buddy Bell, Dave Concepcion
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1977: 0/-0.3
1978: 14/5.5
1979: 13/3.0
1980: 21/7.0
1981: 14/8.7
1982: 16/8.0
1983: 26/10.3
1984: 29/10.5
1985: 16/7.0
1986: 26/10.2
1987: 35/13.1
1988: 23/8.3
1989: 13/6.3
1990: 29/9.7
1991: 12/4.3
1992: 4/1.7
1993: 17/6.3
1994: 3/2.5
1995: 6/1.5
1996: 1/-0.2
Career Win Shares: 318
Career WARP3: 123.3
Would he get my vote?
Yes. An excellent peak gives him the nod from me, the first player I've voted "yes" for. Five times he had an OPS+ of 130 or better in a full season, six if you include his 1993 season although that came in 112 games. As you see Trammell is getting little support, not even at the level of Dave Concepcion. What has hurt Trammell the most is probably the era he played in. You could make a legitimate argument that in the last 25 years we've seen seven of the top 10 to 12 greatest shortstops of all-time as we are truly in a golden age for the position. Trammell's peers included Cal Ripken, Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith, and Barry Larkin and since he retired Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter (maybe needs one more good year) have joined that list. When he retired Trammell was without question one of the Top 10 shortstops of all-time. He shouldn't be punished because his career numbers were dwarfed by all-time greats like Ripken and Yount nor should he be punished for the feats of players who came after him like A-Rod and Jeter.
Harold Baines - Designated Hitter/Rightfielder
Chicago White Sox 1980-1989, 1996-1997, 2000-2001
Texas Rangers 1989-1990
Oakland Athletics 1990-1992
Baltimore Orioles 1993-1995, 1997-1999, 2000
Cleveland Indians 1999
Awards
1989 AL Silver Slugger - DH
All-Star Selections: 6 (1985, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1999)
League Leader
1984: Slugging %
Career Ranks
Games: 17th
Hits: 39th
TB: 30th
2B: 52nd
HR: 50th
RBI: 23rd
BB: 82nd
RC: 44th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 3 (499) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 40 (595) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 43.5 (116) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 66.5 (267) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 3 (Tony Perez, Al Kaline, Billy Williams)
Other Similar Batters: Dave Parker, Rusty Staub, Andre Dawson, Dwight Evans, Chili Davis, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1980: 8/1.2
1981: 10/5.3
1982: 19/6.9
1983: 20/6.2
1984: 24/9.1
1985: 25/7.8
1986: 20/7.0
1987: 13/3.7
1988: 18/4.4
1989: 18/6.3
1990: 11/4.6
1991: 22/6.5
1992: 15/3.3
1993: 15/4.9
1994: 6/3.0
1995: 11/5.3
1996: 13/5.5
1997: 12/4.1
1998: 8/2.5
1999: 15/4.6
2000: 4/1.2
2001: 0/-1.0
Career Win Shares: 307
Career WARP3: 102.4
Would he get my vote?
No. When it comes to players who spent the majority of their career not playing the field I feel they have to hit at the level an excellent first baseman to get in the HOF and Baines is no where close. Sort of like a hitting version of Tommy John in that his career counting numbers are impressive but only because he played a very long time and his peak is just not that impressive. Baines actually was a fairly decent defensive outfielder but knee problems were what forced him to become an everyday DH when he was only 28.
Dale Murphy - Outfielder
Atlanta Braves 1976-1990
Philadelphia Phillies 1990-1992
Colorado Rockies 1993
9th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
1999: 19.32%
2000: 23.25%
2001: 18.46%
2002: 14.83%
2003: 11.69%
2004: 8.50%
2005: 10.46%
2006: 10.77%
Awards
1982 NL MVP
1982 NL Gold Glove - OF
1982 NL Silver Slugger - OF
1983 NL MVP
1983 NL Gold Glove - OF
1983 NL Silver Slugger - OF
1984 NL Gold Glove - OF
1984 NL Silver Slugger - OF
1985 NL Gold Glove - OF
1985 NL Silver Sluger - OF
1986 NL Gold Glove - OF
All-Star Selections: 7 (1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987)
League Leader
1982: RBI
1983: RBI, Slugging %, Runs Created, OPS
1984: Homeruns, Slugging %, Total Bases, Runs Created
1985: Homeruns, Runs, Walks, Runs Created
1987: Runs Created
Career Ranks
Homeruns: 45th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 31 (54) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 147 (90) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 34.3 (209) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 115.5 (121) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 1 (Duke Snider)
Other Similar Batters: Joe Carter, Don Baylor, Ron Santo, Gil Hodges, George Foster, Ruben Sierra, Jack Clark, Ellis Burks, Lee May
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1976: 2/0.3
1977: 2/-0.1
1978: 7/1.4
1979: 11/1.5
1980: 28/9.2
1981: 11/4.3
1982: 32/10.2
1983: 32/10.3
1984: 33/9.8
1985: 31/9.3
1986: 22/6.0
1987: 29/11.5
1988: 12/6.8
1989: 14/2.6
1990: 15/5.0
1991: 13/4.7
1992: 0/-0.8
1993: 0/-0.4
Career Win Shares: 294
Career WARP3: 91.6
Would he get my vote?
No. If I had a real vote I'd be very tempted to give Murphy a sympathy vote as it would be nice to see him get more support and he's actually lost support over the years, nearly falling off the ballot in 2004. With Jim Rice I said he needed two more good seasons but with Murphy I think he needed just one more. He had a very good peak, better than Rice's, as he was just incredible from 1982-1985 but he was washed up by age 32. Although he did win six Gold Gloves at a premium defensive position in centerfield, he was not nearly as good as those six Gold Gloves indicate. He was decent but not great defensively.
Tommy John - Starting Pitcher
Cleveland Indians 1963-1964
Chicago White Sox 1965-1971
Los Angeles Dodgers 1972-1978
New York Yankees 1979-1982, 1986-1989
California Angels 1982-1985
Oakland Athletics 1985
13th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
1995: 21.30%
1996: 21.70%
1997: 20.51%
1998: 27.27%
1999: 18.71%
2000: 27.05%
2001: 28.35%
2002: 26.91%
2003: 23.39%
2004: 21.94%
2005: 23.84%
2006: 29.61%
Awards
None
All-Star Selections: 4 (1968, 1978, 1979, 1980)
League Leader
1966: Shutouts
1967: Shutouts
1974: Win/Loss %
1980: Shutouts
1982: BB/9
Career Ranks
Wins: 25th
Games: 45th
Innings: 19th
Strikeouts: 47th
Shutouts: 26th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Pitching - 8 (281) (Average HOFer ≈ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 137 (116) (Average HOFer ≈ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 44.0 (53) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 111.0 (76) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Pitchers in HOF: 6 (Robin Roberts, Fergie Jenkins, Early Wynn, Burleigh Grimes, Don Sutton, Eppa Rixey)
Other Similar Pitchers: Jim Kaat, Bert Byleven, Tom Glavine, Tony Mullane
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1963: 1/0.1
1964: 2/1.3
1965: 12/4.5
1966: 15/5.7
1967: 11/4.9
1968: 15/6.6
1969: 17/6.4
1970: 17/7.3
1971: 10/4.0
1972: 11/3.9
1973: 15/4.5
1974: 11/4.1
1976: 13/3.7
1977: 19/6.5
1978: 12/3.4
1979: 23/8.4
1980: 19/6.3
1981: 10/5.3
1982: 12/5.7
1983: 10/3.8
1984: 7/2.7
1985: 1/0.1
1986: 6/2.2
1987: 13/4.0
1988: 7/3.0
1989: 0/0.0
Career Win Shares: 289
Career WARP3: 108.7
Would he get my vote?
No. John's entire case is based on his career counting numbers as he pitched for a very, very long time and usually at an above average to good performance level. But as I've mentioned before I favor peak over career and John's peak is seriously lacking. One knock against Win Shares is that it can underrate pitchers but it is hard to view someone who had only one season in 26 years where he had 20+ Win Shares as a HOF. Besides he already has his place in history by having a surgery named after him so he should be content with that.
Jim Rice - Leftfielder
Boston Red Sox 1974-1989
13th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
1995: 29.78%
1996: 35.32%
1997: 37.63%
1998: 42.92%
1999: 29.38%
2000: 51.50%
2001: 57.86%
2002: 55.08%
2003: 52.22%
2004: 54.55%
2005: 59.50%
2006: 64.80%
Awards
1978 AL MVP
1983 AL Silver Slugger - OF
1984 AL Silver Slugger - OF
All-Star Selections: 8 (1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986)
League Leader
1977: Homeruns, Total Bases, Slugging %
1978: Hits, Homeruns, RBI, Triples, Total Bases, Runs Created, Slugging %, OPS, OPS+
1979: Total Bases
1983: Homeruns, RBI, Total Bases
Career Ranks
Hits: 93rd
HR: 52nd
RBI: 52nd
TB: 63rd
SLG: 89th
RC: 79th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 33 (49) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 176 (56) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 42.9 (122) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 146.5 (82) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 4 (Orlando Cepeda, Duke Snider, Billy Williams, Willie Stargell)
Other Similar Batters: Andres Galarraga, Ellis Burks, Joe Carter, Dave Parker, Luis Gonzalez, Chili Davis
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1974: 1/0.1
1975: 20/4.8
1976: 17/4.2
1977: 26/7.4
1978: 36/10.4
1979: 28/8.2
1980: 16/4.9
1981: 15/6.3
1982: 21/6.4
1983: 24/9.1
1984: 17/7.3
1985: 14/5.4
1986: 28/9.4
1987: 8/2.7
1988: 9/2.6
1989: 2/0.1
Career Win Shares: 282
Career WARP3: 89.2
Would he get my vote?
No. A few years ago I was on the Rice bandwagon but I have since jumped off. He was fabulous from 1977-1979 but when you look at the rest of the career there's only two other great seasons and the offensive standards for a being HOF corner outfielder are almost as high as first basemen. He also benefitted from playing his entire career in Fenway Park and he had a large home/road split posting an OPS 131 points higher (.920 to .789) at Fenway than on the road. I think he needed two more good years to push him over the top but his skills eroded rapidly in his mid-30s so much so that he's become the poster boy for a player who has a sudden decline in production in their mid-30s. If he had been a great defensive outfielder or a great base stealer that could have also pushed him over the top but he was neither. I will say that he seems a tad underrated by WARP3. He is gaining support from the writers and I could see him getting a big bump in one his final two years on the ballot although he obviously no chance this year. There's a case to be made for him and I won't have a problem if he ever gets in but he doesn't get my imaginary vote.
Tony Fernandez - Shortstop
Toronto Blue Jays 1983-1990, 1993, 1998-1999, 2001
San Diego Padres 1991-1992
New York Mets 1993
Cincinnati Reds 1994
New York Yankees 1995
Cleveland Indians 1997
Milwaukee Brewers 2001
Awards
1986 AL Gold Glove - SS
1987 AL Gold Glove - SS
1988 AL Gold Glove - SS
1989 AL Gold Glove - SS
All-Star Selections: 5 (1986, 1987, 1989, 1992, 1999)
League Leader
1990: Triples
Career Ranks
None of note
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 3 (499) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 51 (477) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 31.5 (254) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 74.0 (225) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 3 (Red Schoendienst, Billy Herman, Pee Wee Reese)
Other Similar Batters: Dick Bartell, Alvin Dark, Dave Concepcion, Jimmie Dykes, Alan Trammell, Garry Templeton, Omar Vizquel
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1983: 1/0.3
1984: 6/2.7
1985: 21/8.9
1986: 24/9.1
1987: 24/10.1
1988: 25/8.6
1989: 20/8.2
1990: 25/10.6
1991: 21/7.5
1992: 15/6.1
1993: 20/8.1
1994: 14/6.0
1995: 9/2.9
1997: 11/3.6
1998: 19/6.6
1999: 20/5.6
2001: 1/0.5
Career Win Shares: 280
Career WARP3: 105.4
Would he get my vote?
No. Not a HOF but I think a much better player than most people remember, including myself, and I think I'd rate him slightly better than Dave Concepcion. An excellent fielder during his prime and almost always a good hitter for a shortstop, only once finishing with an OPS+ of under 90 in a full season, and finished with a career OPS+ of 101. Overlooked I think for several factors as he brokeout when Cal Ripken and Alan Trammell were already established with his power numbers paling in comparison to those two. Then in his 30's he bounced around from a different team almost every year including missing one season due to injury and spending another in Japan. A knock against him is that even though he had 246 career steals he was a poor base stealer being thrown out 36% of the time.
Steve Garvey - First Baseman
Los Angeles Dodgers 1969-1982
San Diego Padres 1983-1987
Final year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
1993: 41.61%
1994: 36.48%
1995: 42.61%
1996: 37.23%
1997: 35.31%
1998: 41.23%
1999: 30.18%
2000: 32.06%
2001: 34.17%
2002: 28.39%
2003: 27.82%
2004: 24.31%
2005: 20.54%
2006: 25.96%
Awards
1974 NL MVP
1974 NL Gold Glove - 1B
1975 NL Gold Glove - 1B
1976 NL Gold Glove - 1B
1977 NL Gold Glove - 1B
1978 NLCS MVP
1984 NLCS MVP
All-Star Selections: 10 (1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985)
League Leader
1978: Hits
1980: Hits
Career Ranks
Games: 86th
Hits: 70th
Doubles: 91st
RBI: 89th
Total Bases: 78th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 12 (189) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 142 (107) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 31.5 (254) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 130.5 (101) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in the HOF: 1 (Orlando Cepeda)
Other Similar Batters: Al Oliver, Ruben Sierra, John Olerud, Bill Buckner, Mickey Vernon, Cecil Cooper, Chili Davis, Will Clark, Mark Grace
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1969: 0/0.0
1970: 2/1.0
1971: 6/1.9
1972: 8/2.4
1973: 11/2.4
1974: 27/7.1
1975: 25/9.1
1976: 26/9.2
1977: 21/6.1
1978: 25/7.6
1979: 22/8.0
1980: 22/6.9
1981: 13/3.9
1982: 15/3.4
1983: 14/3.9
1984: 15/4.4
1985: 17/5.7
1986: 10/1.3
1987: 0/-0.3
Career Win Shares: 279
Career WARP3: 84.1
Would he get my vote?
No. Was a good player for a long time but he's purely a career case as his peak was unimpressive especially for a first baseman. Had he been a slick fielding, middle infielder then he'd probably be a HOF. One could argue in his favor that his numbers were hurt playing the majority of his career in Dodger Stadium but he had only a 116 OPS+ for his career and never finished in the league's Top 10 in that category which simply isn't going to cut it for a first baseman.
Dave Concepcion - Shortstop
Cincinnati Reds 1970-1988
14th year on the ballot
Past HOF Vote Results
1994: 6.81%
1995: 9.35%
1996: 13.40%
1997: 12.68%
1998: 16.91%
1999: 11.87%
2000: 13.43%
2001: 14.37%
2002: 11.86%
2003: 11.09%
2004: 11.26%
2005: 10.66%
2006: 12.50%
Awards
1974 NL Gold Glove - SS
1975 NL Gold Glove - SS
1976 NL Gold Glove - SS
1977 NL Gold Glove - SS
1979 NL Gold Glove - SS
1981 NL Silver Slugger - SS
1982 NL Silver Slugger - SS
All-Star Selections: 9 (1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982)
League Leader
None of note
Career Ranks
Games: 48th
Hall of Fame Stats
Gray Ink: Batting - 25 (863) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 29.1 (311) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 106.5 (136) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 3 (Bobby Wallace, Pee Wee Reese, Luis Aparicio)
Other Similar Batters: Omar Vizquel, Tony Fernandez, Bert Campaneris, Alan Trammell, Royce Clayton, Garry Templeton, Frank White
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1970: 5/1.9
1971: 4/0.9
1972: 6/3.5
1973: 16/5.9
1974: 25/10.7
1975: 19/8.0
1976: 23/10.2
1977: 19/8.7
1978: 25/8.8
1979: 24/10.2
1980: 17/6.1
1981: 20/9.7
1982: 17/8.3
1983: 8/4.2
1984: 11/3.1
1985: 12/2.8
1986: 8/2.4
1987: 8/3.6
1988: 2/0.8
Career Win Shares: 269
Career WARP3: 109.7
Would he get my vote?
No. I did give him more thought than I originally anticipated mainly due to his strong WARP3 number but he seems overrated by that measure. He was the best shortstop of his era which is definately worthy of some extra credit but he played in a dreadful era for shortstops. His career OPS+ is actually one point higher than Ozzie Smith's but Smith had 56 more Win Shares and 39.6 more WARP3 despite only playing a half season longer. He had some very good years in his prime but the level of performance just wasn't high enough to warrant a spot in the HOF.
Bobby Bonilla - Third Baseman/Rightfielder
Chicago White Sox 1986
Pittsburgh Pirates 1986-1991
New York Mets 1992-1995, 1999
Baltimore Orioles 1995-1996
Florida Marlins 1997-1998
Los Angeles Dodgers 1998
Atlanta Braves 2000
St. Louis Cardinals 2001
Awards
1988 NL Silver Slugger - 3B
1990 NL Silver Slugger - OF
1991 NL Silver Slugger - OF
All-Star Selections: 6 (1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1995)
League Leader
1991: Doubles, Runs Created
Career Ranks
None of note
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 3 (499) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 96 (229) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 32.0 (239) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 64.5 (278) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: None
Top 10 Similar Batters: Fred Lynn, Paul O'Neill, Dal Ennis, Reggie Smith, Ken Boyer, Robin Ventura, George Hendrick, Todd Zeile, Gary Matthews, Bob Johnson
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1986: 10/3.5
1987: 16/4.4
1988: 31/8.5
1989: 29/11.7
1990: 23/7.4
1991: 31/10.5
1992: 18/5.8
1993: 16/5.7
1994: 19/7.0
1995: 22/9.3
1996: 19/5.2
1997: 21/5.4
1998: 5/0.7
1999: 0/-0.1
2000: 6/-0.1
2001: 1/0.1
Career Win Shares: 267
Career WARP3: 85.1
Would he get my vote?
No. Solid four year peak from 1988-1991 but for me personally I consider his 1991 season to be the only year where he was among the elite players in the game. Of course cashed in on that season but could never live up to the hype coming into New York and fell far below it. Good hitter but not the cornerstone of a lineup that he was paid to be. Poor defensively regardless of the position he played.
As I've mentioned before I have several redos done that I've just never bothered to do entries on but after doing the Mattingly entry I figured it'd be a good time to do an entry on the year he won the MVP. Also had thought about doing it after last week's Jeff Bagwell debate that popped up in the MLB Offseason Thread, Part II. The poster who was truly against Bagwell as being a HOF was NYankees who while getting completely destroyed in the debate also tried to back up Mattingly's HOF case and made this comment:
And I sort of agreed with him as I chose Mattingly as my choice for the 1986 A.L. MVP although I wouldn't say he got screwed out of the award as Roger Clemens was not a bad choice. So in theory maybe Mattingly should have been a back-to-back MVP winner which would probably have helped his case when it comes to the actual HOF voters. But was Mattingly the right choice in 1985? Mattingly won the MVP without much opposition, taking 23 out of the 28 first place votes as the Yankees had their best team in the 80's winning 97 games although coming up two games short of the Blue Jays. Mattingly of course had a lot to do with the Yankees success as he led the league in doubles, finished 3rd in batting average, 2nd in slugging, 4th in homeruns, and led that all important baseball writer statistic, runs batted in. He knocked in 145 runs in 1985 a whopping 21 more than 2nd place Eddie Murray which was probably the biggest reason he won the MVP.
George Brett received the other five first place votes putting up a phenomenal .335/.436/.585 line with a 30 homeruns and 112 rbi while helping lead the Royals to the A.L. West title. Only three other players received over 100 voting points: Mattingly's teammate Rickey Henderson who hit a then career high 24 homeruns while leading the league with 80 stolen bases and of course a big reason why Mattingly knocked in so many runs, Wade Boggs who hit .368 which would best showing of his career, and Eddie Murray who had his usual strong year. The homicidal, genocidal, suicidal Donnie Moore finish 6th in the voting. Okay I've just wanted an excuse to use that line at some point.
Actual Results
1) Don Mattingly 2) George Brett 3) Rickey Henderson 4) Wade Boggs 5) Eddie Murray 6) Donnie Moore 7) Jesse Barfield 8) George Bell 9) Harold Baines 10) Bret Saberhagen 11) Dan Quisenberry 12) Dave Winfield 13) Carlton Fisk 14) Darrell Evans 15) Ron Guidry 16) Phil Bradley 17) Cal Ripken 18) Kirk Gibson 19) Steve Balboni 20) Tom Henke 21t) Doyle Alexander 21t) Dennis Lamp 21t) Kirby Puckett 24) Damaso Garcia 25) Rich Gedman
#10
171 ERA+, 1.74 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP, 78.1 VORP, 24 Win Shares
#9
.300/.365/.498, 113 RC, 133 OPS+, .306 EQA, 50.9 VORP, 26 Win Shares
#8
.287/.364/.518, 110 RC, 140 OPS+, .317 EQA, 54.7 VORP, 24 Win Shares
#7
145 ERA+, 4.16 K/BB, 1.06 WHIP, 68.2 VORP, 24 Win Shares
#6
.289/.369/.536, 106 RC, 142 OPS+, .313 EQA, 48.6 VORP, 26 Win Shares
#5
.297/.383/.523, 118 RC, 149 OPS+, .324 EQA, 55.3 VORP, 28 Win Shares
#4
.368/.450/.478, 140 RC, 151 OPS+, .338 EQA, 81.2 VORP, 31 Win Shares
#3
.324/.371/.567, 140 RC, 156 OPS+, .328 EQA, 69.1 VORP, 32 Win Shares
#2
.314/.419/.516, 118 RC, 157 OPS+, .346 EQA, 86.7 VORP, 38 Win Shares
#1
.335/.436/.585, 142 RC, 178 OPS+, .356 EQA, 93.1 VORP, 37 Win Shares
So Mattingly won an MVP in 1985 that he probably shouldn't have won and he lost an MVP in 1986 that he probably should have won. See it all balances out in the end. For the record from 1984 to 1987 on my redos I had Mattingly 3rd, 3rd, 1st, and 8th respectively. Not too shabby but not a Hall of Famer.
Don Mattingly - First Baseman
New York Yankees 1982-1995
7th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
2001: 28.16%
2002: 20.34%
2003: 13.71%
2004: 12.85%
2005: 11.43%
2006: 12.30%
Awards
1985 AL MVP
1985 AL Gold Glove - 1B
1985 AL Silver Slugger - 1B
1985 ML Sporting News Player of the Year
1986 AL Gold Glove - 1B
1986 AL Silver Slugger - 1B
1987 AL Gold Glove - 1B
1987 AL Silver Slugger - 1B
1988 AL Gold Glove - 1B
1989 AL Gold Glove - 1B
1991 AL Gold Glove - 1B
1992 AL Gold Glove - 1B
1993 AL Gold Glove - 1B
1994 AL Gold Glove - 1B
All-Star Selections: 6 (1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989)
League Leader
1984: Batting Average, Hits, Doubles, OPS+
1985: Doubles, RBI, Total Bases
1986: Hits, Doubles, Total Bases, Runs Created, Slugging %, OPS, OPS+
Career Ranks
Doubles: 86th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 23 (84) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 111 (185) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 34.1 (211) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 133.5 (95) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 2 (Kirby Puckett, Jim Bottomley)
Other Similar Batters: Cecil Cooper, Garret Anderson, Wally Joyner, Hal McRae, Will Clark, Tony Oliva, Jeff Conine, Keith Hernandez
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1982: 0/0.1
1983: 7/1.3
1984: 29/11.7
1985: 32/11.7
1986: 34/12.7
1987: 27/9.1
1988: 24/6.4
1989: 26/7.4
1990: 7/2.1
1991: 14/4.0
1992: 20/7.3
1993: 20/6.0
1994: 15/6.0
1995: 8/4.7
Career Win Shares: 263
Career WARP3: 89.1
Would he get my vote?
No. He was unbelievable from 1984-1986, very good from 1987-1989, and then just very ordinary from 1990-1995. His peak was just too short and back problems took away his power as he hit over 20 homeruns only once in the final eight years of his career. He was an excellent defensive first baseman but there's only so much of a bonus you can give for first base defense.
Paul O'Neill - Rightfielder
Cincinnati Reds 1985-1992
New York Yankees 1993-2001
Awards
None
All-Star Selections: 5 (1991, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998)
League Leader
1994: Batting Average
Career Ranks
Doubles: 75th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 4 (401) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 45 (538) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 36.9 (184) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 70.5 (246) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in the HOF: None
Top 10 Similar Batters: Bobby Bonilla, Del Ennis, Fred Lynn, Bernie Williams, Reggie Smith, Ruben Sierra, George Hendrick, Ken Boyer, Bob Johnson, Will Clark
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1985: 1/0.1
1986: 0/0.0
1987: 5/1.1
1988: 13/5.2
1989: 18/5.6
1990: 16/5.0
1991: 19/8.6
1992: 13/6.4
1993: 15/7.1
1994: 23/11.5
1995: 18/6.8
1996: 22/8.7
1997: 28/9.2
1998: 26/9.8
1999: 16/5.9
2000: 13/4.4
2001: 13/3.1
Career Win Shares: 259
Career WARP3: 98.6
Would he get my vote?
No. If he could have hit as well as he did in his 30's while he was in his 20's he might have had a case. Went from being a unspectacular corner outfielder with the Reds into a damn good hitter with the Yankees but is no where close to being a HOF. What am I'm trying to figure out is how at age 38 did he steal 22 bases and only be caught three times?
Wally Joyner - First Baseman
California/Anaheim Angels 1986-1991, 2001
Kansas City Royals 1992-1995
San Diego Padres 1996-1999
Atlanta Braves 2000
Awards
None
All-Star Selections: 1 (1986)
League Leader
None of note
Career Ranks
None of note
Hall of Fame Stats
Gray Ink: Batting - 16 (1106) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 24.9 (482) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 27.5 (603) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: None
Top 10 Similar Batters: Hal McRae, Jeff Conine, Chris Chambliss, Keith Hernandez, Cecil Cooper, Don Mattingly, Felipe Alou, Ken Singleton, Dusty Baker, George Hendrick
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Leven (WARP3)
1986: 21/7.5
1987: 22/8.4
1988: 22/7.7
1989: 19/6.9
1990: 9/2.6
1991: 25/8.2
1992: 14/4.7
1993: 17/7.3
1994: 11/5.0
1995: 18/6.9
1996: 16/4.1
1997: 21/5.2
1998: 22/3.9
1999: 7/2.4
2000: 7/1.0
2001: 2/0.6
Career Win Shares: 253
Career WARP3: 82.3
Would he get my vote?
No. I'm exercising my one year, steroid user boycott when it comes to Joyner...okay maybe not. Nice little hitter but "nice little hitter" isn't a ringing endorsement for a first baseman let alone one who played in the era Joyner did. Great start to his career and I have faint memories after Mark McGwire's horrific 1991 season of A's fans hoping they would sign Joyner as a free agent and release McGwire. Good thing team's typically don't listen to their fans.
Albert Belle - Leftfielder
Cleveland Indians 1989-1996
Chicago White Sox 1997-1998
Baltimore Orioles 1999-2000
2nd year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
2006: 7.7%
Awards
1993 AL Silver Slugger - OF
1994 AL Silver Slugger - OF
1995 ML Sporting News Player of the Year
1995 AL Silver Slugger - OF
1996 AL Silver Slugger - OF
1998 AL Silver Slugger - OF
All-Star Selections: 5 (1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997)
League Leader
1993: RBI
1994: Total Bases
1995: Runs, Doubles, Homeruns, Total Bases, Slugging Pct.
1996: RBI
1998: Total Bases, Slugging Pct., OPS, OPS+, Runs Created
Career Ranks
HR: 54th
SLG%: 19th
OPS: 35th
OPS+: 58th
AB/HR: 22nd
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Batting - 28 (62) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 137 (117) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 36.1 (187) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 134.5 (94) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 1 (Hank Greenberg)
Other Similar Batters: Juan Gonzalez, Carlos Delgado, Jim Edmonds, Jason Giambi, Moises Alou, Vladimir Guerrero, Dick Allen, Rocky Colavito, Tim Salmon
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacmenet Level (WARP3)
1989: 6/0.9
1990: 0/-0.1
1991: 15/4.9
1992: 16/5.3
1993: 27/10.5
1994: 24/11.4
1995: 30/13.7
1996: 31/11.3
1997: 18/5.6
1998: 37/12.3
1999: 24/9.9
2000: 15/4.2
Career Win Shares: 243
Career WARP3: 90.0
Would he get my vote?
No. From a peak standpoint, Belle has a serious case. He was one the most feared and best hitters of the 90's. Four times he posted an OPS+ of better than 150, six times in the Top 10 in the league in slugging, eight times in total bases, nine times in RBI, and nine times in homeruns. Although he isn't listed as one of Belle's comps you can bring up Ralph Kiner who is in the HOF, who like Belle had a very short career and was a dominating power hitter while he was active. But I personally don't view Kiner as a HOF and even though I weigh peak a little more than a player's career I just don't think Belle lasted quite long enough to be a HOF. If his hip had held up just for a couple of more good years I think it would have pushed him over the top. I may also had given him my imaginary vote if he had been a good defensive outfielder but he was below average at best. It was actually a mild surprise he got enough votes last year to stay on the ballot given his on the field and off the field persona but with a much deeper ballot this year I doubt he makes it to 2008.
Ken Caminiti - Third Baseman
Houston Astros 1987-1994, 1999-2000
San Diego Padres 1995-1998
Texas Rangers 2001
Atlanta Braves 2001
Awards
1995 NL Gold Glove - 3B
1996 NL MVP
1996 NL Gold Glove - 3B
1997 NL Gold Glove - 3B
All-Star Selections: 3 (1994, 1996, 1997)
League Leader
None of note
Career Ranks
None of note
Hall of Fame Stats
Gray Ink: Batting - 28 (802) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 24.8 (488) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 38.0 (462) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: None
Top 10 Similar Batters: Travis Fryman, Doug DeCinces, Larry Parrish, Bret Boone, Richie Hebner, Bobby Thompson, Ben Ogilvie, Johnny Callison, Bobby Murcer, Gus Bell
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1987: 3/1.1
1988: 1/-0.2
1989: 25/7.9
1990: 11/3.8
1991: 17/7.1
1992: 21/7.4
1993: 14/4.9
1994: 16/7.6
1995: 24/9.8
1996: 38/12.9
1997: 26/9.5
1998: 20/4.1
1999: 10/3.5
2000: 9/2.7
2001: 4/1.1
Career Win Shares: 242
Career WARP3: 83.1
Would he get my vote?
No. Even if Caminiti had never used steroids and hadn't become a cocaine addict and died, he still is no where close to being a HOF where bringing up those issues would be relevant to his candidacy. Had a good peak although his 1996 season where he won the MVP stands out as a fluke and his career counting numbers are underwhelming.
Jack Morris - Starting Pitcher
Detroit Tigers 1977-1990
Minnesota Twins 1991
Toronto Blue Jays 1992-1993
Cleveland Indians 1994
8th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
2000: 22.24%
2001: 19.61%
2002: 20.55%
2003: 22.78%
2004: 26.28%
2005: 33.33%
2006: 41.15%
Awards
1981 AL Sporting News Pitcher of the Year
1991 World Series MVP
All-Star Selections: 5 (1981, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1991)
League Leader
1981: Wins
1983: Innings Pitched, Strikeouts
1986: Shutouts
1990: Complete Games
1992: Wins
Career Ranks
Wins: 40th
IP: 48th
K: 31st
GS: 34th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Pitching - 20 (88) (Average HOFer ≈ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 193 (46) (Average HOFer ≈ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 39.0 (73) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 122.5 (64) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Pitchers in HOF: 6 (Bob Gibson, Red Ruffing, Amos Rusie, Burleigh Grimes, Bob Feller, Jim Bunning)
Other Similar Pitchers: Dennis Martinez, Tom Glavine, Luis Tiant, Chuck Finley
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacmenet Level (WARP3)
1977: 3/1.0
1978: 4/1.1
1979: 17/6.7
1980: 14/5.3
1981: 16/6.5
1982: 14/4.8
1983: 20/7.6
1984: 14/5.4
1985: 19/8.1
1986: 20/8.3
1987: 21/8.8
1988: 12/4.7
1989: 4/2.4
1990: 8/3.0
1991: 18/7.1
1992: 15/5.7
1993: 1/0.6
1994: 5/2.8
Career Win Shares: 225
Career WARP3: 89.8
Would he get my vote?
No. Morris was incredibly durable, throwing 240+ innings in 11 seasons, and very consistent but was rarely dominant. He never posted an ERA under 3 in his career which is fairness to him was in part to pitching in Tiger Stadium but his career ERA+ of 105 is very unimpressive. He does get a bonus for two excellent World Series but he also had an awful postseason all around in 1992. Now his comp pitchers paint him as a Hall of Famer as he has six current HOFs and one futuer HOF in Tom Glavine but Morris' ERA+ is worse than all of them with only Burleigh Grimes being close at 107 and he's a questionable HOF. His #1 comp is Dennis Martinez who is a very good comp for him but like El Presidente, Morris is not a HOF.
Eric Davis - Outfielder
Cincinnati Reds 1984-1991, 1996
Los Angeles Dodgers 1992-1993
Detroit Tigers 1993-1994
Baltimore Orioles 1997-1998
St. Louis Cardinals 1999-2000
San Francisco Giants 2001
Awards
1987 NL Gold Glove - OF
1988 NL Gold Glove - OF
1989 NL Gold Glove - OF
All-Star Selections: 2 (1987, 1989)
League Leader
None of note
Career Ranks
AB/HR: 83rd
Hall of Fame Stats
Gray Ink: Batting - 61 (398) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 26.8 (395) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 27.5 (603) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: 1 (Larry Doby)
Other Similar Batters: Kirk Gibson, Jeromy Burnitz, Darryl Strawberry, Raul Mondesi, Roger Maris, Bill Nicholson, Reggie Sanders, Danny Tartabull, Ray Lankford
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1984: 7/2.2
1985: 5/1.6
1986: 25/7.1
1987: 30/11.2
1988: 27/7.7
1989: 26/7.5
1990: 17/5.8
1991: 8/3.2
1992: 6/1.2
1993: 12/5.8
1994: 1/0.4
1996: 22/6.8
1997: 6/1.4
1998: 18/6.9
1999: 5/1.0
2000: 8/2.1
2001: 0/0.1
Career Win Shares: 224
Career WARP3: 72.0
Would he get my vote?
No. Yet another player on this year's ballot who's career was wrecked by injuries. From 1986 to 1989 he posted OPS+ of 143, 155, 139, and 154 respecitvely while playing Gold Glove defense in center and being a force on the base paths. Even during these years when he was at the top of his game he had nagging injuries and he never played more than 135 games in a season at any point in his career.
Could it finally be, someone who I'd actually vote for on my imaginary ballot?
Rich "Goose" Gossage - Closer
Chicago White Sox 1972-1976
Pittsburgh Pirates 1977
New York Yankees 1978-1983, 1989
San Diego Padres 1984-1987
Chicago Cubs 1988
San Francisco Giants 1989
Texas Rangers 1991
Oakland Athletics 1992-1993
Seattle Mariners 1994
8th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
2000: 33.27%
2001: 44.27%
2002: 43.01%
2003: 42.14%
2004: 40.74%
2005: 55.23%
2006: 64.61%
Awards
1978 AL Rolaids Relief Award
All-Star Selections: 9 (1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985)
League Leader
1975: Saves
1978: Saves
1980: Saves
Career Ranks
Saves: 17th
Games: 10th
K/9: 40th
ERA+: 55th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Pitching - 9 (248) (Average HOFer ≈ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 41 (580) (Average HOFer ≈ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 19.0 (312) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 126.0 (61) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Pitchers in HOF: 2 (Rollie Fingers, Hoyt Wilhelm)
Other Similar Pitchers: Lindy McDaniel, Stu Miller, Gene Garber, Kent Tekulve, Tug McGraw, Sparky Lyle, Roy Face, Mike Marshall
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1972: 3/0.2
1973: 0/-0.5
1974: 4/1.9
1975: 23/10.5
1976: 10/4.7
1977: 26/10.5
1978: 20/7.8
1979: 11/4.0
1980: 18/6.2
1981: 12/5.9
1982: 17/7.4
1983: 16/7.1
1984: 15/5.1
1985: 15/4.4
1986: 5/1.5
1987: 7/3.3
1988: 4/1.3
1989: 5/1.4
1991: 3/1.8
1992: 2/1.1
1993: 3/1.8
1994: 4/2.0
Career Win Shares: 223
Career WARP3: 89.5
Would he get my vote?
...No. Like I said in the Lee Smith entry I just have a hard time viewing someone who spent their career primarily as a reliever as being a true Hall of Famer. I absolutely agree that Gossage is much more deserving of enshrinement than that of Bruce Sutter. What's funny is that if Gossage had retired at 35 like Sutter did he probably would already be in the HOF as his greatness as a closer would have been remembered better by the short attention span of the writers. Gossage retired nine years after his last good season as a closer after bouncing around several teams as a moderately effective, situational reliever and he gets unfairly penalized for it. I will not argue with anyone who says Gossage deserves to get in and I will have no problem if he ever gets in, which I think will happen eventually after the big jump in support he's received the last couple of years. But on my imaginary ballot I just can't put him down.
Orel Hershiser - Starting Pitcher
Los Angeles Dodgers 1983-1994, 2000
Cleveland Indians 1995-1997
San Francisco Giants 1998
New York Mets 1999
2nd year on the ballot
Past HOF Ballot Results
2006: 11.2%
Awards
1988 NL Cy Young
1988 NL Sporting News Pitcher of the Year
1988 NL Gold Glove - P
1988 NLCS MVP
1988 World Series MVP
1995 ALCS MVP
All-Star Selections: 3 (1987, 1988, 1989)
League Leader
1984: Shutouts
1985: Winning %
1987: Innings Pitched
1988: Wins, Winning %, Innings Pitched, Complete Games, Shutouts
1989: Innings Pitched
Career Ranks
Wins: 100th
Strikeouts: 58th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Pitching - 20 (88) (Average HOFer ≈ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 129 (130) (Average HOFer ≈ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 34.0 (101) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 90.5 (115) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Pitchers in HOF: 2 (Catfish Hunter, Dazzy Vance)
Other Similar Pitchers: Bob Welch, Milt Pappas, Kevin Brown, Vida Blue, Jim Perry, Dave Stieb, Silver King, Bob Shawkey
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1983: 0/0
1984: 18/6.8
1985: 23/7.7
1986: 12/5.1
1987: 21/9.1
1988: 25/10.3
1989: 21/9.7
1990: 1/0.2
1991: 8/3.1
1992: 8/4.5
1993: 13/5.6
1994: 7/3.2
1995: 13/6.4
1996: 14/5.9
1997: 11/4.5
1998: 7/2.9
1999: 8/3.0
2000: 0/-1.7
Career Win Shares: 210
Career WARP3: 86.2
Would he get my vote?
No. Looked like he was on his way to a Hall of Fame career at the conclusion of the 80's but a torn rotator cuff in April of 1990 cost him over a year and he was never the same pitcher after that. Like with Bret Saberhagen throwing over 250 innings three straight years did not end being a good idea. Hershiser was arguably a better pitcher than his HOF comp Catfish Hunter but Hunter was vastly overrated and a very dubious HOF inductee, while Hershiser was not at the level of Dazzy Vance.
Devon White - Centerfielder
California Angels 1985-1990
Toronto Blue Jays 1991-1995
Florida Marlins 1996-1997
Arizona Diamondbacks 1998
Los Angeles Dodgers 1999-2000
Milwaukee Brewers 2001
Awards
1988 AL Gold Glove - OF
1989 AL Gold Glove - OF
1991 AL Gold Glove - OF
1992 AL Gold Glove - OF
1993 AL Gold Glove - OF
1994 AL Gold Glove - OF
1995 AL Gold Glove - OF
All-Star Selections: 3 (1989, 1993, 1998)
League Leader
None of note
Career Ranks
None of note
Hall of Fame Stats
Gray Ink: Batting - 41 (581) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 21.3 (651) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 34.5 (502) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Batters in HOF: None
Top 10 Similar Batters: Amos Otis, Claudell Washington, Brady Anderson, Chet Lemon, Marquis Grissom, Johnny Callison, Felipe Alou, Cesar Cedeno, Johnny Damon, Gary Matthews
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1985: 0/0.1
1986: 2/0.6
1987: 17/7.1
1988: 11/5.0
1989: 14/6.2
1990: 7/3.5
1991: 24/10.3
1992: 19/7.5
1993: 20/8.8
1994: 11/5.4
1995: 12/4.3
1996: 18/5.7
1997: 9/2.6
1998: 18/5.1
1999: 12/3.4
2000: 2/0.4
2001: 11/3.1
Career Win Shares: 207
Career WARP3: 79.2
Would he get my vote?
No. During his prime he was an outstanding defensive centerfielder, very deserving for most of the Gold Gloves he won, and a good base stealer but outside of 1991 was never that much of hitter. Only had a career OBP of .319, never hit higher than .283, and struck out a lot which is not a good combination. His similar batters make him look better than he was as only Marquis Grissom had a lower career OPS+.
I don't have to repeat myself when it comes to what I think of the BCS and what I'd prefer to happen in college football...but I will anyways. I view the BCS as a bad compromise that was created to sort of give us the opportunity to have a clear cut national champion while sort of keeping the tradition of the bowls but fails on both levels most of the time. I personally either want a true 16 team playoff system, like every other level of college football, completely removed from any association to bowl games or just go back to the traditional bowl system where trying to match-up the #1 and #2 teams in the country was an afterthought and stop pretending that we're crowning a true Division I-A national champion when no such thing exsists.
But I'm not dellusional, neither of things I want will ever happen. A 16 team playoff would be a cash cow but would have some definite logistical issues where potentially some fan bases would have to travel four times in the span of four to six weeks. Obviously we're also never going to see the old bowl system comeback either. So I've come up with an idea that does in some way combine the playoffs and bowls.
First off there would be an 8 team playoff that would include the six BCS conference champions and two at-large teams. Now in a perfect world we'd just take the Top 8 teams in the country but no conference would ever agree to a playoff system that could possibly prevent them from getting a piece of the pie, which is partly why I think a 4 team playoff will never happen. The two at-large bids would be two highest ranked teams not to win their conference or would also include any non-BCS conference team that went undefeated. As good as Utah was in 2004 I don't think anyone thinks they were the best team in the country but they certainly had every right to prove that they could be beaten and the same goes for Boise State this year. If Boise State beats Oklahoma by double digits and Florida beats Ohio State won't on some level the Broncos would have some right to claim that they should be the national champs?
The first round games would be home goes for the higher seeded team and then the semi-finals would be played at two of the four major bowl sites and then of course at another bowl site for the finals. So for example this year the Fiesta Bowl would be the site of the finals with the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl as the semi-final locations. The Orange Bowl was at the bottom of the BCS pecking order this year so they would be seperate from the playoffs which I'll get to. So here is how the 8 team playoff would look.
Wake Forest at Ohio State
Louisville at USC
Oklahoma at Florida
Boise State at Michigan
Now as for my bowl idea I want to change how the bowls are selected. The preset bids I feel devalue the overall importance of the bowls and unfairly punish teams for how their conference has performed in the past. A pefect example is the Big East bids this year. Because of the purge of the conference a couple of years ago this year the Big East bids took a big hit. Their #2 bid, the Gator Bowl, now had a deal with the Big XII where they could have skipped over the Big East and send their second place team to the Sun Bowl which is very much a midlevel bowl. Texas' collapse at the end of the season and West Virginia's win over Rutgers prevented that from happening. Then their #3 bid, the less than prestigious Meineke Car Care Bowl, had a deal with Navy to take them as long as they became bowl eligible and leaving the Big East with no alternative. That would send the 3rd place team in the confernece to it's #4 bid, the "new" Texas Bowl which is replacing the Houston Bowl which went belly up to play the 8th place team in the Big XII. This has of course happened as Rutgers, ranked #16 by the BCS, is stuck playing a bowl game against the #55 team in the BCS, Kansas State who happens to be the lowest ranked BCS conference team with a winning record.
Now I understand why some bowls have certain conference tie ins. It wouldn't make sense to have a Pac-10 team play in the Outback Bowl, just as it wouldn't make sense for an ACC team to play in the Holiday Bowl. Travel has to be taken into account and it's completely understandable. But my proposal is have an actual bowl committee that places similar ranked teams in appropriate bowl games. With the current system they set themselves up for bad match-ups. The #9 team playing the #23 team in the Cotton Bowl. The #13 team playing the #28 team in the Gator Bowl. The #25 team is playing the #52t team in the Emerald Bowl. The #19 team is playing the #52t team in the Alamo Bowl. There has to be a better solution.
On the subject of the Alamo Bowl, why is a team like Iowa even in a bowl game? With the preset conference bowl bids they're awarding a team that went 2-6 in it's own conference while beating no one of note out of conference and give them a midlevel bid with a $1.9 million payout. Why is Miami in a bowl game? Half of their wins came against I-AA Florida A&M, winless FIU, and winless Duke. There are a handful of other examples of teams that have no business being a bowl game which comes to the next problem with the bowls, there are way too fucking many of them. 32 bowl games is absolutely nuts. More than half of Division I-A teams are going to a bowl game this year. What is this, the NBA Playoffs?
My proposal to go along with the bowl committee idea and eliminating preset bids is to cap the total number of bowls at 20, which would not include the bowl sites that are part of the playoffs. With the playoffs and the bowls you'd have 48 teams in the postseason which is plenty. Now going back to the Orange Bowl, since in this hypothetical scenerio it would not be part of the playoffs it would be host the two highest ranked teams in the BCS who did not qualify for the playoffs so this year it would be LSU and Wisconsin.
So here is the bowls I came up with using the BCS rankings trying to match-up closely ranked teams in appropriate bowl games. This is some what thrown together so you could argue with the order itself I have of the bowls. I would eliminate bowls that are to reliant on getting their home team into the bowl to hope to make money (Hawaii, New Mexico, etc.) and bowls where there is already another bowl game at the same site (Poinsettia, Champs Sports). Also no team that fails to finish with a winning record should ever to go a bowl game.
Orange: LSU vs. Wisconsin
Capital One: Auburn vs. Notre Dame
Cotton: Arkansas vs. West Virginia
Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
Outback: Rutgers vs. Texas
Holiday: California vs. BYU
Gator: Texas A&M vs. Boston College
Alamo: Oregon State vs. Nebraska
Liberty: Penn State vs. Georgia Tech
Sun: UCLA vs. TCU
Music City: Georgia vs. Houston
Insight: Oregon vs. Hawaii
Independence: Clemson vs. Navy
Las Vegas: Arizona State vs. Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care: South Florida vs. South Carolina
Emerald: Maryland vs. Missouri
Motor City: Kentucky vs. Cincinnati
MPC Computers: Rice vs. Purdue
Texas: Texas Tech vs. Tulsa
GMAC: Southern Miss vs. Troy
Now we get to the our first holdover and someone who has received some decent support.
Lee Smith - Closer
Chicago Cubs 1980-1987
Boston Red Sox 1988-1990
St. Louis Cardinals 1990-1993
New York Yankees 1993
Baltimore Orioles 1994
California Angels 1995-1996
Cincinnati Reds 1996
Montreal Expos 1997
5th year on the ballot
Past HOF Voting Results
2003: 42.34%
2004: 36.56%
2005: 38.8%
2006: 45.0%
Awards
1991 NL Rolaids Relief Award
1992 NL Rolaids Relief Award
1994 AL Rolaids Relief Award
All-Star Selections: 7 (1983, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
League Leader
1983: Saves
1991: Saves
1992: Saves
1994: Saves
Career Ranks
Saves: 2nd
Games: 8th
H/9: 97th
K/9: 11th
K/BB: 61st
ERA+: 30th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Pitching - 12 (178) (Average HOFer ≈ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 48 (512) (Average HOFer ≈ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 13.0 (578) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 135.0 (50) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Pitchers in HOF: 2 (Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter)
Other Similar Pitchers: Jeff Reardon, John Franco, Roberto Hernandez, Trevor Hoffman, Rick Aguilera, Kent Tekulve, Jose Mesa
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3)
1980: 2/0.7
1981: 4/2.5
1982: 13/4.5
1983: 19/8.3
1984: 15/4.9
1985: 17/5.9
1986: 17/7.2
1987: 15/7.4
1988: 12/4.7
1989: 11/3.9
1990: 17/6.2
1991: 15/6.5
1992: 12/4.2
1993: 9/3.4
1994: 8/4.9
1995: 8/5.0
1996: 4/2.1
1997: 0/0.1
Career Win Shares: 198
Career WARP3: 82.2
Would he get my vote?
No. I personally just have a hard time thinking someone who spent their career almost exclusively as a short reliever as being a HOF. As I've mentioned before a closer can rarely ever be considered the most valuable player on a team. Even though he retired as the all-time saves leader Smith was definately a notch below the elite closers in baseball history (Fingers, Eckersley, Rivera, Gossage, Sutter, Quisenberry, Wilhelm, Hoffman) and by the time he reached his mid-30s he was just padding his career save totals.
Bret Saberhagen - Starting Pitcher
Kansas City Royals 1984-1991
New York Mets 1992-1995
Colorado Rockies 1995
Boston Red Sox 1997-1999, 2001
Awards
1985 AL Cy Young
1985 Sporting News AL Pitcher of the Year
1985 World Series MVP
1989 AL Cy Young
1989 Sporting News AL Pitcher of the Year
1989 AL Gold Glove - P
All-Star Selections: 3 (1987, 1990, 1994)
League Leader
1985: WHIP, BB/9, K/BB Ratio
1989: Wins, ERA, Win %, WHIP, Innings, Complete Games, K/BB Ratio, ERA+
1994: BB/9, K/BB Ratio
Career Ranks
WHIP: 47th
BB/9: 35th
K: 97th
K/BB: 10th
ERA+: 56th
Hall of Fame Stats
Black Ink: Pitching - 20 (88) (Average HOFer ≈ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 124 (139) (Average HOFer ≈ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 32.0 (123) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 70.5 (158) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Similar Pitchers in the HOF: None
Top 10 Similar Pitchers: John Candelaria, Ron Guidry, Ed Lopat, Jimmy Key, Ed Morris, Scott Sanderson, Doug Drabek, Bill Gullickson, Dave McNally, Rick Rhoden
Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacment Level (WARP3)
1984: 10/4.1
1985: 24/10.2
1986: 8/4.4
1987: 23/10.1
1988: 15/6.6
1989: 28/11.7
1990: 7/5.0
1991: 16/7.6
1992: 5/2.5
1993: 9/4.5
1994: 16/8.7
1995: 8/3.3
1997: 0/0.1
1998: 12/5.5
1999: 12/6.3
2001: 0/0.2
Career Win Shares: 193
Career WARP3: 90.7
Would he get my vote?
No. At age 25 he had already had two Cy Young's and a World Series MVP but three straight years where he through over 250 innings took it's toll on his arm as he would only throw enough innings three more times in his career to qualify for the ERA title. Certainly a great "What If?" case if he could have stayed healthy. When he was healthy he pitched like a HOF but didn't pitch enough to warrant consideration.
