EVIL~! alkeiper

It's not whether or not he succeeds. It's the torture you endure finding out.

So I listen to the Phils tie this game on the radio on the way home from Scranton. I get home and put on the tv, and it's Ryan Franklin. Why must I be punished like this?

That was an evaluation I made on November 19th last year. I saw Veras pitch last night and strike out two of the four batters he faced. He's got some very good stuff, and he could surprise people if the Yankees need bullpen help midseason.

Johnson went 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA. 211 Ks and 47 BBs in 226 innings. Last I checked that was good. http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B09080KC11965.htm http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B09060CHA2000.htm Bert Campaneris and Scott Sheldon are the only two, as far as I know. You shouldn't. He's not a high leverage pitcher. He's the kind of guy you pay $300,000 to get you through the sixth inning instead of throwing millions of dollars at the likes of Tim Worrell and Rheal Cormier.

Fantastic news for Nationals fans, as Jim Bowden has been arrested and charged with DUI.

ASTRO POWER!!!!! Seriously, the 'Stros are lookin' good this season. 9-4. Ensberg, Berkman, and Lane are looking monster. Wilson's looking pretty good, except tonite. He struck out five times. Does anybody know if it's stastically more likely for a player to strike out swinging five times in a game or get five hits in a game? Ya gotta think, that in five at bats, you gotta put it in play once....And that is my Astros comment of the week, which will soon be ignored in favor of more marketable teams. It's quite easy to figure out. Just check if a player's rate of strikeouts over plate appearances is higher or lower than his batting average. In Preston Wilson's case, he's struck out more often than he's collected hits in his career. So five strikeouts are more likely. Still, the odds against collecting five strikeouts, even for Wilson, are extremely low. This is one of the easier statistical methods. I'm using Wilson's career stats up to this year. He has come to the plate 3,831 times, and struck out 947 times. That means he strikes out in approximately 25% of his at bats. All you need to do to find the probability of a streak is carry that number to whatever power you need. So .25 to the fifth power is .000976. You can round that up to one/thousandth if you prefer. So if we gave Preston Wilson 1,000 sets of five plate appearances, we'd expect him to strike out five times once. And he just did it.

I should note a minor correction from last week's topic. Kaz Matsui was not sent down to AAA Norfolk, he's there on a rehab assignment.

I've gotta disagree with you. Valentin's been getting steadily worse over the past few years. In his 147 ABs last year, Valentin hit with a line of .170/.320/.265 whereas Woodward used his 173 ABs to hit .283/.337/.393. In his prime, Valentin was a considerably better hitter than Woodward (who's not great, but passable), sure, but he hasn't shown any of that hitting prowess in about three or four years. I just don't trust less than 200 at bats to get a true read on a player. Valentin battled injuries last year. Two years ago he hit 30 home runs. That's more than Woodward's hit his entire career.

Damn. That sucks to hear for any player. It didn't seem that serious on the radio.

I think Jose Valentin's better than Woodward.

Jose Lima's making a terrific impression tonight in Scranton, allowing eight runs in the first three innings. The Barons collected five extra base hits in the first inning alone.

Albert Pujols has now homered in four consecutive at bats. At this rate, he'll pass Bonds by July.

I think it's Czech under a different username.

This week's winners... Player of the Week: Albert Pujols. 8-21 with FIVE home runs and 9 runs scored. Pitcher of the Week: Eric Bedard. 2-0, 1.29 ERA in 15 innings of work.

I've been quietly impressed by Keppinger the few times I've seen him. He's a high average singles hitter and I'd like to see him get an opportunity. And watching Jose Lima during batting practice, I can definately say he's a cut up. Even if he can't pitch, he's still a tremendously fun guy.

On another note, the Mets sent Kaz Matsui down to AAA Norfolk. Matsui went 1-4 with 2 Ks in tonight's game against the Red Barons.

Fun Fact: That was only the second 1-0 game in the history of Coors Field.

If the AL East is a strong division, it's not odd at all.

How is it that new posters know to call me Al? The Yankees' own recap neglects to mention any of the umpires' calls, and instead focuses on the fact that the Twins got an infield hit, Matsui threw to the wrong base, and Justin Morneau got the game winning single on the first pitch. Bad calls? Good organizations and fans ignore them, suck it up, and accept responsibility for their own failures. Bad organizations and fans blame the umpires for their own shortcomings.

Grow up the lot of you. Try to lose with a little dignity for once.

One anecdotal note about last night's Red Barons game. Mick Foley threw out the first pitch. Chris Roberson got the honor of catching the first pitch and he appeared to insist on it. So you can add him to your lists of wrestling fan athletes.

I've thought about it, but anything you do is either going to be random, or select the Montreal Expos.

Huh? Why isn't Good Friday an appropriate day to televise a baseball game? It's just as well. The game sucked with Chris Roberson making two errors and the Barons' bullpen imploding. Not airing a game on Good Friday is insane though. Do we stop broadcasting everything on Good Friday? And this is the same station that has no problem airing their network's NBA games on Christmas Day.

I'm running a greatest teams tournament on Strategic Baseball Simulator, and I figured I would post the results here. I am running the tournament in the same manner of the College World Series. It is extremely unscientific, so take any results with a grain of salt. The tournament consists of four rounds... Regionals Sixteen separate four team brackets. The competition is double-elimination, meaning the losers fall into a second bracket. Teams are eliminated after two losses. Super Regionals Eight brackets of two teams each. Best of three games. Semifinals This is where the competition reaches Omaha in the College version. Again we have two brackets of four teams each, double elimination. Championship Final two teams in a best of three competition. In order to even things up, I divided the tournament into four eras. 1901-34, 1935-65, 1966-87, and 1988-2005. Each era contains an approximately even number of teams in their talent pool. There have been about 2,100 teams since 1900, and each era contains about 550. (This is the kind of stuff you do to pass time in a boring class). Here are the entrants. '14 BosN @ '06 ChC '34 StL @ '32 NYY '06 Cubs 3, '14 Braves 2 '34 Cardinals 5, '32 Yankees 1 '19 Cin @ '21 NYG '35 ChC @ '12 BosA '21 Giants 14, '19 Reds 5 '35 Cubs 3, '12 Red Sox 0 '19 CWS @ '29 PhA '07 Det @ '27 NYY '19 White Sox 8, '29 Athletics 3 '27 Yankees 8, '07 Tigers 6 '09 Pit @ '12 NYG '24 Was @ '11 PhA '12 Giants 9, '09 Pirates 6 '24 Senators 9, '11 Athletics 4 '50 Phi @ '53 NYY '57 Mil @ '54 Cle '53 Yankees 2, '50 Phillies 1 '57 Braves 4, '54 Indians 0 '62 SF @ '55 Brk '41 Brk @ '46 StL '62 Giants 10, '55 Dodgers 6 '41 Dodgers 10, '46 Cardinals 8 '65 Min @ '61 NYY '46 Bos @ '63 LAD '61 Yankees 7, '65 Twins 5 '63 Dodgers 3, '46 Red Sox 0 '35 Det @ '40 Cin '59 CWS @ '39 NYY '40 Reds 3, '35 Tigers 1 '39 Yankees 10, '59 White Sox 5 I'm taking a break from the games for a moment to briefly discuss the managers. Several managers have two teams in the tournament. Walter Alston manages three teams, the '55, '63 and '74 Dodgers. Here are the other multi-team managers. Sparky Anderson ('75 Reds, '84 Tigers) Bobby Cox ('92 Braves, '98 Braves) Alvin Dark ('62 Giants, '74 Athletics) Tony LaRussa ('88 Athletics, 2004 Cardinals) Al Lopez ('54 Indians, '59 White Sox) Connie Mack ('11 Athletics, '29 Athletics) Joe McCarthy ('32 Yankees, '39 Yankees) John McGraw ('12 Giants, '21 Giants) Joe Torre ('98 Yankees, 2003 Yankees) Top managers in career wins who are not represented. 1. Gene Mauch 2. Tommy Lasorda 3. Clark Griffith 4. Jimmie Dykes 5. Wilbert Robinson '67 Bos @ '74 Oak '84 Det @ '80 KC '74 Athletics 4, '67 Red Sox 3, 12 Innings '80 Royals 5, '84 Tigers 1 '69 NYM @ '80 Phi '85 StL @ '70 Balt '69 Mets 4, '80 Phillies 1 '85 Cardinals 5, '70 Orioles 1 '74 LAD @ '77 NYY '79 Pit @ '86 NYM '77 Yankees 6, '74 Dodgers 2 '86 Mets 5, '79 Pirates 4, 14 innings '68 Det @ '67 StL '82 Mil @ '75 Cin '68 Tigers 2, '67 Cardinals 1 '75 Reds 8, '82 Brewers 4 '94 Mon @ '98 NYY '02 Oak @ '04 StL '98 Yankees 9, '94 Expos 8 '04 Cardinals 3, '02 Athletics 2 '04 Bos @ '92 Atl '01 Sea @ '88 Oak '04 Red Sox 11, '92 Braves 3 '88 Athletics 2, '01 Mariners 1, 10 Innings '05 CWS @ '03 NYY '02 SF @ '95 Cle '05 White Sox 2, '03 Yankees 0 '95 Indians 5, '02 Giants 2 '01 Ari @ '92 Tor '03 Fla @ '99 Atl '01 Diamondbacks 11, '92 Blue Jays 5 '03 Marlins 1, '98 Braves 0

Call me crazy, but a real show about a sports agent could be interesting (not like that Arliss crap).