The Official MLB Offseason Topic

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Jayson Stark's latest article was so fucking fantastic that I had to post a link to it:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2004/c...yson&id=1748433

 

My favourite quotes:

 

"The Yankees getting A-Rod," Todd Jones says, "that's like IBM trying to enter an eighth-grade science project."

 

"Boy, that's some kind of World Series drought the Yankees have going," quips Devil Rays manager Lou Piniella. "How long has it been since they won one? I thought it was two years, but it's actually been three. Three years. That's like 30 to anybody else."

The A-Rod acquisition is overblown. You have to remember that they lost Alfonso Soriano AND Aaron Boone. Rodriguez doesn't make up for that.

[NYU 0]

Aaron Boone was terrible for the Yankees. In the grand scheme of things, he hit one meaningful homerun....and that was it. The rest was spectacularly unmemorable or just plain bad. He was unreliable as a third baseman, and they are certainly not much worse for having lost him. Especially when they have replaced him with Alex Rodriguez.

 

Alfonso Soriano? Yeah, that could hurt a little. But anyone who thinks that they won't go shopping for a high-priced, all-star second baseman during the season is kidding themselves. They'll eventually put some huge star at second base, and have a ridiculously good infield.

 

Acquisition of A-Rod >>>>>>>>>> Losing Boone and Soriano. Boone wasn't that good to begin with, and is being replaced by one of the best players in the game, and Soriano will be replaced by someone even better.....probably by the All-Star game.

 

I really don't think the A-Rod situation is overblown. The competitive balance has been thrown completely out of whack. Evidence? A few weeks ago, people were saying that there was a chance the Orioles or the Jays could sneak up and swipe the AL East....why, it had potential to be one of the more unpredictable divisions this season. Is anyone saying that now? No, it's back to the Yankees and the Red Sox....with everyone in baseball giving the advantage to the Yanks. The unpredictibility that lasted for a few weeks is gone - and that's terrible.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Acquisition of A-Rod >>>>>>>>>> Losing Boone and Soriano. Boone wasn't that good to begin with, and is being replaced by one of the best players in the game, and Soriano will be replaced by someone even better.....probably by the All-Star game.

 

How are they going to get an All-star second baseman by the break. They need trade bait, and they have nothing of value in the system.

 

I really don't think the A-Rod situation is overblown. The competitive balance has been thrown completely out of whack. Evidence? A few weeks ago, people were saying that there was a chance the Orioles or the Jays could sneak up and swipe the AL East....why, it had potential to be one of the more unpredictable divisions this season. Is anyone saying that now? No, it's back to the Yankees and the Red Sox....with everyone in baseball giving the advantage to the Yanks. The unpredictibility that lasted for a few weeks is gone - and that's terrible.

 

Those people are idiots. Nothing has changed. Its simple. The Yankees are counting on staying healthy in order to win the division. As are the Red Sox. If either team falters and has a rash of injuries, the Blue Jays could steal a playoff spot. The Orioles will make it in the event of a miracle. The Devil Rays should improve, but have no realistic chance.

[Bored 0]

Here are my second baseman rankings for the projected starters for this year. Now I might as well explain why Alfonso Soriano is not #1. This is again because this is not a true projection and is meant to be based if everyone played on an even field. Obviously Soriano's numbers will be huge this year with him playing in Arlington.

 

1. Bret Boone, Mariners

2. Marcus Giles, Braves

3. Alfonso Soriano, Rangers

4. Jeff Kent, Astros

5. Jose Vidro, Expos

6. Luis Castillo, Marlins

7. Placido Polanco, Phillies

8. Mark Loretta, Padres

9. Ray Durham, Giants

10. Jose Reyes, Mets

11. Adam Kennedy, Angels

12. D'Angelo Jiminez, Reds

13. Mark Grudzielanek, Cubs

14. Junior Spivey, Brewers

15. Jerry Hairston Jr., Orioles

16. Mark Ellis, A's

17. Orlando Hudson, Blue Jays

18. Aaron Miles, Rockies

19. Marlon Anderson, Cardinals

20. Bobby Hill, Pirates

21. Roberto Alomar, Diamondbacks

22. Fernando Vina, Tigers

23. Luis Rivas, Twins

24. Ron Belliard, Indians

25. Desi Relaford, Royals

26. Alex Cora, Dodgers

27. Pokey Reese, Red Sox

28. Rey Sanchez, Devil Rays

29. Enrique Wilson, Yankees

30. Willie Harris, White Sox

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Reyes has to prove himself yet. He's only got 274 major league at bats.

[Bored 0]

Ya well I guess he kinda goes into the category of a rookie almost where it's hard to know where to place them at this point. But his numbers for those at bats were solid especially for a 20-year old. Just wait till you see where I have Bobby Crosby and Jason Bay at their positions. I'm not proud of my shortstop list and almost don't even want to post it. I'd make changes to it but then the list might become too subjective and these lists are mostly objective.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

If you know me, you know I'll back up Bobby Crosby more than anyone on this forum. As an aside, put him one spot above Tejada for kicks.

[Dr. Tom 0]

Actually, Al, I think Tejada is going to have a big year.

[geniusMoment 0]

Bored and Al go back and read my post. I did not say Sanders did not come through with runners in scoring position, I said he choked against good pitching. He is the classic example of feasting on bad pitching and choking when facing someone who can spot the ball. I am only talking about his days in Cincinnati, where I saw virtually every one of his games, he might have improved since then. It used to be, throw a high and tight good fastball and Reggie would swing right through it every time. Maddux, Glavine and the Atlanta pitching staff exposed this hole in sanders swing during the 1995 playoff series against the braves where Sanders only had I think 1 or 2 hits. You say that clutch hitting does not make any sense because players always try their hardest, that is true, but some players are smarter than others. Some players know how to adjust their swing in certain situations. Also who says a hitter must become better than he usually is, the other hitter with the same skill level might just choke. They both have the same skill level but I would want the player who plays well under pressure, not the choker.

Do you know what it feels like to come up to bat with the entire game on the line, facing a pitcher with great stuff. I know on my team there are certain guys I want up in that situation and certain guys I do not want up. I will admit it, I have choked under the pressure before, its damn hard to hit the same with the game on the line.

[Bored 0]

Maddux, Glavine and the Atlanta pitching staff exposed this hole in sanders swing during the 1995 playoff series against the braves where Sanders only had I think 1 or 2 hits.

Greg Maddux is an all-time great and Tom Glavine is a potential future Hall of Famer and them shutting down Reggie Sanders in the 1995 NLCS is your evidence that clutch hitting does exsist. Greg Maddux went 19-2 with a 1.63 ERA that year. Tom Glavine had his usual solid year going 16-7 with a 3.08 ERA. Like I pointed out in my post is it possible Reggie Sanders just hits poorly against these pitchers because they are great pitchers? I'm sure there are a lot better hitters than Reggie Sanders who couldn't hit Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in their primes very well either.

 

Looking at the numbers to that series, Barry Larkin was the only Reds player who had a good series. Now I know why your pointing out Sanders so much is because that season he had a career year. Sanders got exposed in that series not because he wasn't "clutch" it was because his season was for the most part a fluke. He is consistenly inconsistent through out his career. He usually follows up one good year with one bad year. In fact last season was his best year since '95 and it still wasn't close to that year. Barry Larkin on the other hand in his prime was consistently a very good hitter. Larkin didn't have a better series than Sanders because he's "clutch", Larkin had a better series than Sanders because he was a better hitter.

[geniusMoment 0]

Actually, during that season Sanders still only hit off of the bad pitchers for the most part. He is your classic mistake ball hitter. When facing a good pitcher you may not get any mistakes. Sanders is actually my example of someone who feasts on bad pitching and is crappy against good pitching, making his stats skewed. He still got the hits, but I would never want him up against a good pitcher with the season on the line. Which was the entire point of my first post to begin with. There are certain hitters I want to come up in big situations, and certain hitters I do not want to come up, not always relating to their overall stats.

[Bored 0]

Listen to what your saying, read your own post. Your saying he hits better against bad pitching. Doesn't logic dictate the worse the pitching the better the chance the hitter has of getting a hit? No matter how great the hitter they will always have a better chance of getting a hit off of Brett Tomko than they do Pedro Martinez.

 

I don't know what your obsession with Reggie Sanders is but he is not like a Hall of Famer by any stretch. He's only made one All-Star team, in '95. Reggie Sanders numbers don't indicate he should be able to hit Greg Maddux with regularity. And like I already pointed out he is very inconsistent. He has literally never had two years in a row where his numbers went up.

 

Yes I want certain hitters up there in big situations, I want the better hitters. See you'll learn when you really look into the perceived great "clutch hitters" they happen to be the great hitters in general. I would have wanted Barry Larkin circa 1995 up there over Reggie Sanders circa 1995 because Larkin was consistently the better hitter even though Sanders numbers were outstanding for that season but he never proved that season wasn't a fluke. If I were you I'd try to come up with a better example than Reggie Sanders or I'd just agree to disagree because your argument just isn't very strong.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

To further Bored's point...

 

Hitters with RISP last year on the season and hitting in the later, close games

 

Ichiro: .343/.435/.495 & .282/.300/.333

Todd Helton: .414/.543/.669 & .306/.468/.639

Edgar Renteria: .317/.387/.489 & .320/.404/.360

Albert Pujols: .359/.439/.667 & .298/.421/.574

Bill Mueller: .331/.404/.504 & .182/.302/.227

Barry Bonds: .338/.654/.558 & .324/.582/.794

Gary Sheffield: .330/.419/.604 & .273/.359/.509

Derek Jeter: .324/.393/.450 & .212/.341/.364

Luis Castillo: .286/.381/.368 & .333/.429/.431

Marquis Grissom: .331/.355/.504 & .192/.208/.288

 

Aside from Jeter, both Grissom and Mueller have less then stellar track records when it comes to hitting over a season. The other players that one could call "clutch" are all great hitters.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Actually, during that season Sanders still only hit off of the bad pitchers for the most part. He is your classic mistake ball hitter. When facing a good pitcher you may not get any mistakes. Sanders is actually my example of someone who feasts on bad pitching and is crappy against good pitching, making his stats skewed. He still got the hits, but I would never want him up against a good pitcher with the season on the line. Which was the entire point of my first post to begin with. There are certain hitters I want to come up in big situations, and certain hitters I do not want to come up, not always relating to their overall stats.

First off, Iits easy to throw around the "choke" label, but you have to remember that major league hitters fail 66% of the time. Choking is the norm.

 

Second, I've yet to see clutch hitting as a measurable skill. Who are these infamous clutch hitters? Moreover, would you pinch hit a Miguel Cairo for a Gary Sheffield because one is "clutch" and the other isn't? That's my basic point. The idea of clutch hitting is adds no benefit to existing statistical analysis, or in-game strategy.

[geniusMoment 0]

Its just common sense that someone will hit better off of bad pitching. But, some players are famous for being mistake hitters, when facing a big pitcher in a big game there is good chance you will not get a mistake. I am not obsessed with Reggie Sanders, I mentioned him once, you guys responded, then I responded. No I would not pinch hit Cairo for Sheffield, but that is just taking it to a stupid level, I am talking about players with equal skills here.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Its just common sense that someone will hit better off of bad pitching. But, some players are famous for being mistake hitters, when facing a big pitcher in a big game there is good chance you will not get a mistake. I am not obsessed with Reggie Sanders, I mentioned him once, you guys responded, then I responded. No I would not pinch hit Cairo for Sheffield, but that is just taking it to a stupid level, I am talking about players with equal skills here.

That's not really clutch hitting then. Just recognizing a player's weeknesses. A guy like Sanders would struggle against good pitching in the 1st inning with no one on base.

[geniusMoment 0]

I still think some of you are missing my point. If you look back at my first post I discussed why I felt stats were skewed, two of the reasons I said were because some hitters come through in the clutch better than others and another is because some get the majority of their hits off of bad pitching. Sanders was my example of getting hits off of bad pitching. Uh oh, I said Sanders name again, now there will be another post describing how I am obsessed with him.

[geniusMoment 0]

To change topics, did anyone see the story talking about the Yankees, Reds and Tampa Bay Buc players going to a strip club just outside of Sarasota for "special treatment", it was on ESPN's special about sex in sports. I wonder who went? I think I know of one. I remember before last year an interviewer asked Adam Dunn who his favorite actress was, he said Jenna Jameson. It was funny because the interviewer did not know who she was and just went on asking questions.

[Guest Anglesault]

Jayson Stark's latest article was so fucking fantastic that I had to post a link to it:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2004/c...yson&id=1748433

 

My favourite quotes:

 

"The Yankees getting A-Rod," Todd Jones says, "that's like IBM trying to enter an eighth-grade science project."

 

"Boy, that's some kind of World Series drought the Yankees have going," quips Devil Rays manager Lou Piniella. "How long has it been since they won one? I thought it was two years, but it's actually been three. Three years. That's like 30 to anybody else."

The A-Rod acquisition is overblown. You have to remember that they lost Alfonso Soriano AND Aaron Boone. Rodriguez doesn't make up for that.

Yeah, what a shame that was.

[Bored 0]

Here are my third basemen rankings for the projected regulars. You know the drill at this point if you read the other ones. The dreaded shortstop rankings come tommorrow.

 

1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees

2. Scott Rolen, Cardinals

3. Eric Chavez, A's

4. Mike Lowell, Marlins

5. Bill Mueller, Red Sox

6. Morgan Ensberg, Astros

7. Corey Koskie, Twins

8. Troy Glaus, Angels

9. Melvin Mora, Orioles

10. Hank Blalock, Rangers

11. Sean Burroughs, Padres

12. Scott Speizio, Mariners

13. Eric Hinske, Blue Jays

14. Edgardo Alfonzo, Giants

15. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs

16. Joe Crede, White Sox

17. Wes Helms, Brewers

18. Eric Munson, Tigers

19. Rob Makowiak, Pirates

20. Joe Randa, Royals

21. Shea Hillenbrand, Diamondbacks

22. Casey Blake, Indians

23. Adrian Beltre, Dodgers

24. Vinny Castilla, Rockies

25. Ty Wigginton, Mets

26. Mark DeRosa, Braves

27. Tony Batista, Expos

28. David Bell, Phillies

29. Geoff Blum, Devil Rays

30. Brandon Larson, Reds

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Blalock belongs higher on that list, as does Larson. Larson's got the potential to hammer the ball. I don't feel so sanguine about David Bell's hitting. Chavez is better than Rolen, in my view.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Jayson Stark's latest article was so fucking fantastic that I had to post a link to it:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2004/c...yson&id=1748433

 

My favourite quotes:

 

"The Yankees getting A-Rod," Todd Jones says, "that's like IBM trying to enter an eighth-grade science project."

 

"Boy, that's some kind of World Series drought the Yankees have going," quips Devil Rays manager Lou Piniella. "How long has it been since they won one? I thought it was two years, but it's actually been three. Three years. That's like 30 to anybody else."

The A-Rod acquisition is overblown. You have to remember that they lost Alfonso Soriano AND Aaron Boone. Rodriguez doesn't make up for that.

Yeah, what a shame that was.

It IS a shame, because as it stands right now, your team is playing Enrique Wilson at second base. Wilson's the type of player the Detroit Tigers uses when one or two of their regualrs falls to injury. He doesn't deserve a starting job on ANY team, let alone one competing for a title.

 

You can groan about Aaron Boone all you want, but he's not a bad player. Everyone has slumps. Some are just unfortunate to have them in the postseason. Boone can hit a little, he walks, steals bases, and unlike most recent Yankee infielders, he has this uncanny ability to pick up a groundball and deposit it in the first baseman's mitt.

 

The Yankees are worse now than two months ago.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I still think some of you are missing my point. If you look back at my first post I discussed why I felt stats were skewed, two of the reasons I said were because some hitters come through in the clutch better than others and another is because some get the majority of their hits off of bad pitching. Sanders was my example of getting hits off of bad pitching. Uh oh, I said Sanders name again, now there will be another post describing how I am obsessed with him.

Ok, lets take a look at the original post......

 

Look at someones batting average with two outs and runners in scoring position, and just with runners in scoring position in general. Look at someones at bats from the 7th inning on, look at how often they convert runners on third, with less than 2 outs, into runs. See how they hit against good pitching, do they only get hits off of bad pitching. Stats do not reflect a ballplayers true ability unless the stats are broken down into the categories that truly matter. I have seen plenty of hitters who get meaningless hits all of the time but cannot come through when it truly matters, or hitters who kill bad pitching and strike out against good pitching.

 

That line in bold is the one I argue with. Everyone faces bad pitchers, or faces clutch situations. Breaking them down either dilutes the available data, or is ultimately meaningless, only providing you information that you already knew. In most cases, a basic hitting line will provide you 90% of what you need to know about a player's ability or hit or pitch. Only Left/Right and Home/Road splits have any meaningful quality.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Already the Yankees staff is suffering too! Lieber, Contreras(Back I think) and Brown(Took a shot off his shin IIRC) could all be injured(some more serious then others) and Karsay won't be back for quite a bit.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Its a bitch, because my AL fantasy team is dependant on the health of the Yankees' starters.

[Bored 0]

Blalock's numbers were padded a bit by playing in Arlington. He really could have been high as #5 or #6. Guys like Mueller and Mora are that high just because of last year. Hell Mora had the same OPS+ as A-Rod last season if you can believe that. Larson just ended at the bottom because for his few number at bats in the Majors he's been terrible. Rolen is still a better hitter than Chavez at this point so that's why I went with him for #2.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Speaking of Boone. One of the first things I thought of was he could of moved over to 2B if he was healthy. Of course the Yankees might not of made the deal if that was the case.

[geniusMoment 0]

The reds tried moving boone to second and he really struggled, I think he wants to stay at third.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Like he'd have any say in the matter.

[geniusMoment 0]

He could just ask to be traded. Honestly, except for that one big moment Boone did not seem happy in New York to me. He was absolutly loved in Cincy and broke down crying at his farewell press conference.