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Guest OctoberBlood

MLB 2004 Predictions

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Guest Anglesault
Worse, they traded their ace starter for Jeff Weaver.

Al, do you think there's any chance for Weaver to turn himself around now that he'll be out of the NY spotlight AND pitching at Dodger Stadium? Not that I'd expect him to fully replace Kevin Brown, but it seems possible to me.

 

I know that Anglesault would explode with rage if he has a good year. :D

Why would I do that?

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No Yankee pitcher will finish the season with an ERA under 3.00.

False. Even if none of the starters do, Rivera will.

I should have said STARTER. That's my fault. I meant Starter.

 

I know Rivera will almost definitely be below 3.00 if not below 2.00

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Guest OctoberBlood
Personally I think that if he gets run support he may be a 14 game winner. Besides San Diego as far as whole team offense goes the NL West is pretty sucky. Bonds and nobody else on San Fran. Arizona has some offense but these days its homer or nothing for Sexon and Gonzo while Finley and Hillenbrand seem to be singles/doubles hitters. Not to mention he'll get to face Milwaukee, Pitts(sorry KKK), Cinci, and Montreal

 

Uh, right .. theres no advantage to facing Cincinnati's offense. Hell, nor Montreals.

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I feel bad for Toronto, they've assembled a very fine lineup with a solid rotation and then the Yankees (And Red Sox for that matter) add all of their big money free agents and the Blue Jays now have a snowball chance in hell of winning the AL East. If the Jays were in the AL Central they could easily win that division.

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Guest FrigidSoul

Through Free Agency the Red Sox aquired Keith Foulke for around $8mill per year

 

After that they got Pokey Reese for a mill, Ellis Burks for $750k, Tony Womack in a minor league deal, and Mark Bellhorn in the same.

 

The Red Sox didn't add much to their payroll this off-season. Even with the Curt Schilling trade.

 

The Big Spenders this off-season were the Yankees, Angels, and Phillies(they revamped their bullpen and added Eric Milton)

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Guest Mosaicv2

go Braves, Red Sox & Giants... now I know it will be a challenge for the Sox & Braves... but im still countin on them

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Worse, they traded their ace starter for Jeff Weaver.

Al, do you think there's any chance for Weaver to turn himself around now that he'll be out of the NY spotlight AND pitching at Dodger Stadium? Not that I'd expect him to fully replace Kevin Brown, but it seems possible to me.

 

I know that Anglesault would explode with rage if he has a good year. :D

Why would I do that?

Why wouldn't you?

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Worse, they traded their ace starter for Jeff Weaver.

Al, do you think there's any chance for Weaver to turn himself around now that he'll be out of the NY spotlight AND pitching at Dodger Stadium? Not that I'd expect him to fully replace Kevin Brown, but it seems possible to me.

 

I know that Anglesault would explode with rage if he has a good year. :D

There's almost certainly a turn-around coming for Jeff Weaver. There's a few things working in his favor. When you look at his stats, you see that his big problem was hits. He allowed 211 hits in 159.3 innings. Growing evidence shows pitchers have less control over hits allowed than once thought. So Weaver goes from the Yankees, with Soriano/Jeter behind him, to the Dodgers with Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis behind him. Izturis and Cora are crap hitters, but they're among the best fielders in the league. Beyond that, Weaver doesn't walk too many batters. The only concern is the strikeouts. Finally, Weaver turns 27 this season. Typically, that is the age players see a jump in performance. I doubt he'll be as good a Brown, but I think he'll return to form.

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Worse, they traded their ace starter for Jeff Weaver.

Al, do you think there's any chance for Weaver to turn himself around now that he'll be out of the NY spotlight AND pitching at Dodger Stadium? Not that I'd expect him to fully replace Kevin Brown, but it seems possible to me.

 

I know that Anglesault would explode with rage if he has a good year. :D

Personally I think that if he gets run support he may be a 14 game winner. Besides San Diego as far as whole team offense goes the NL West is pretty sucky. Bonds and nobody else on San Fran. Arizona has some offense but these days its homer or nothing for Sexon and Gonzo while Finley and Hillenbrand seem to be singles/doubles hitters. Not to mention he'll get to face Milwaukee, Pitts(sorry KKK), Cinci, and Montreal

Run support and the Dodgers don't mix.

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Guest Anglesault
Worse, they traded their ace starter for Jeff Weaver.

Al, do you think there's any chance for Weaver to turn himself around now that he'll be out of the NY spotlight AND pitching at Dodger Stadium? Not that I'd expect him to fully replace Kevin Brown, but it seems possible to me.

 

I know that Anglesault would explode with rage if he has a good year. :D

Why would I do that?

Why wouldn't you?

While yes, I would have loved for him to walk off a cliff, I'm just glad that he's gone, never to come back. I don't care what he does elsewhere.

 

Growing evidence shows pitchers have less control over hits allowed than once thought. So Weaver goes from the Yankees, with Soriano/Jeter behind him, to the Dodgers with Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis behind him. Izturis and Cora are crap hitters, but they're among the best fielders in the league

 

Weaver gave up ALOT of clean hits last year. Not that many had to do with the fielders behind him.

 

Anyway, IMO, The man's biggest problem was that he picked some of the worst possible games to have really bad performances. And it's not like Wells, who redeemed himself with that Boston game at the end of the year.

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This season is going to piss me off, I'm sure of it...The Blue Jays have their best team in a decade, and they're in the WRONG DAMN DIVISION.

Being a Jays fan, I'm curious as to what makes you so optimistic about their ability? Notice how I didn't say chances, since they are playing with the Bosox and Yankees.

Well, their offence is the same as last year's (which was one of the best in the majors), and their pitching is quite improved. They're stronger in the 1-4 spots that at any time since '93, and they may well have a legit closer in Speier. The bullpen isgoing to be the turning point for them, but I don't think 90 wins is an unrealistic goal for them at all.

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Guest Anglesault

You called the Yankees the Mafia, so your opinion doesn't count. :P

 

Honestly, I don't think 90 wins will get them second place in that division.

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Guest Choken One

I honestly believe Bos, NYY, Baltimore will dog fight each other to the end and by proxy eliminate each other from Post-season contention meaning no matter who makes it of the three, that team will be so emotionaly tired someother team team takes a quick advantage with the 5 game series rule in effect.

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Guest Anglesault

a) I'm not sure how Baltimore with the awesome force that is Sidney Ponson is gonna even compete against NY or Boston.

 

I don't care how supposedly awful the Yankees pitching staff is (A statement I STILL don't get) we've still got one up on Baltimore.

 

b) What the hell are you talking about? The team is gonna be emotionally tired? the hell?

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Predictions:

 

Cubs win it all.

 

Here's a question: with Les Expos leaving town after all these years, why do they pick the LAST YEAR to replace the god-awful turf with something better than basement-quality carpet??? I hope the city paid for that.

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A's should still be a quiet force while the Yanks/BoSox get all the attention. A's still have possibly the best starting 3, they added Redman, and have Hardan as a #5......that is one hell of a 5-man rotation. They lost Tejada, but scoring runs was never their strong suit last year and Tejada was in year long slump. Also the A's feel they have a damn good SS prospect. Add to that the Billy Beane factor and I think the A's win the west in 2004.

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Personally, he could do great if Dodger Stadium's park factors match what Comerica Park was in 2002 before the trade and remain consistent as a pitcher's park. Over 100 favors hitters or pitchers, 1st # is hitting, 2nd # is pitching.

 

1999 - 176 hits in 163.2 IP, 27 HR's(Tiger Stadium was a 101/101)

2000 - 205 hits in 200 IP, 26 HR's(Comerica Park was a 97/97)

2001 - 235 hits in 229.1 IP, 19 HR's(Comerica Park was a 99/99)

2002 - 112 hits in 121.2 IP, 4 HR's(Comerica Park was a 93/94) in Detroit and 81 hits in 78 IP, 12 HR's(Yankee Stadium was 98/98)

2003 - 211 hits in 159.1 IP, 16 HR's(Yankee Stadium was a 96/97)

 

His Walks & Hits Per Inning(WHIP) #'s are...

1999 - 1.42

2000 - 1.28

2001 - 1.32

2002 - 1.19(with Detroit) and 1.23(with New York)

2003 - 1.62

 

Past 5 Years(Park Factors for Dodger Stadium)

1999 - 96/97

2000 - 92/93

2001 - 90/92

2002 - 91/92

2003 - 93/94

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The Red Sox and Yankees had a dog fight last year (With the Jays briefly included) and were not "emotionally tired" enough to muster series wins. I don't even think the Orioles will be a factor, their pitching downright blows with the exception of Ponson (Who's OK). I think the Blue Jays will easily finish in 3rd over the Orioles.

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Guest Anglesault
The Red Sox and Yankees had a dog fight last year (With the Jays briefly included)

That' being generous.

Edited by Anglesault

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Well I gotta give the Jays credit, they almost had the division lead for about a milisecond in June and gave both teams scares up until August before saying "Fuck it, we can't beat these guys"

 

The AL East as a whole last year was a dog fight, even the D-Rays beat my Sox at least three or four times (Out of sixteen :P ) and beat the Yankees. Heck the Sox were .500 against the Orioles last year. The AL East is pound for pound the best division in a long time in the MLB

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Guest Anglesault
The AL East as a whole last year was a dog fight, even the D-Rays

Oh, come on. The Devil Rays were out of the race in May. Little wins over Yanks and Sox meant nothing.

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The AL East is pound for pound the best division in a long time in the MLB

Yup, a whole two years. 2002 A.L. West had the Mariners finishing in 3rd place with 93 wins, the A's winning an A.L. record 20 straight games, and of course the 2nd place Angels with 99 wins winning the World Series.

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An amusing sidenote from last year: Despite leading the AL with 138 errors, the Tigers also led the majors in double plays with 194...

 

2003 Numbers vs AL East teams

Yankees: 47-29(62%)

Red Sox: 41-35(54%)

Orioles: 31-45(41%)

Blue Jays: 37-39(49%)

Devil Rays: 34-42(45%)

 

Looked like every team came out pretty even with the Yankees pretty much winning away but not by that large a margin

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An amusing sidenote from last year: Despite leading the AL with 138 errors, the Tigers also led the majors in double plays with 194...

 

Careful, that stat is misleading. Why did the Tigers turn so many double plays? Because they allowed so many runners to reach base. There's little correlation between W/L and double plays, or even defense and double plays.

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I know what I said earlier (Houston wins WS), but I actually thought about these picks. I will skip the rookie awards because I don't know enough about them.

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

 

MVP: Carlos Beltran (KC)

Cy Young: Tim Hudson (OAK)

 

AL EAST STADINGS:

01. Boston Red Sox

02. New York Yankees

03. Toronto Blue Jays

04. Baltimore Orioles

05. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

 

AL CENTRAL STANDINGS:

01. Kansas City Royals

02. Chicago White Sox

03. Minnesota Twins

04. Cleveland Indians

05. Detroit Tigers

 

AL WEST STANDINGS:

01. Anaheim Angels

02. Oakland Athletics

03. Seattle Mariners

04. Texas Rangers

 

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

 

MVP: Albert Pujols (STL)

Cy Young: Mark Prior (CHC)

 

NL EAST STANDINGS:

01. Philladelphia Phillies

02. Atlanta Braves

03. Florida Marlins

04. Montreal Expos

05. New York Mets

 

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS:

01. Chicago Cubs

02. Houston Astros

03. St Louis Cardinals

04. Cincinnatti Reds

05. Milwakee Brewers

06. Pittsburgh Pirates

 

NL WEST STANDINGS:

01. San Francisco Giants

02. San Diego Padres

03. Arizona Diamondbacks

04. Los Angeles Dodgers

05. Colorado Rockies

 

PLAYOFFS

 

Angels d. Yankees

Red Sox d. Royals

 

Astros d. Phillies

Cubs d. Giants

 

Angels d. Red Sox

Cubs d. Astros

 

WORLD SERIES CHAMPION: Chicago Cubs

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Well here are my BOLD Predictions..

 

NL Division Winners

Braves

Astros

Giants

Cubs (Wild Card)

 

Astros def Braves

Cubs def Giants

 

Astros def Cubs

 

NL MVP - Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young - Kerry Wood

 

 

AL Division Winners

Red Sox

Twins

Angels

Yankees (Wild Card)

 

Angels def Yankees

Red Sox def Twins

 

Angels def Red Sox

 

AL MVP - Vlad

AL Cy Young - Bartolo Colon

 

World Series:

 

Astros def Angels in 6

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NL Divison Winners

-Phillies

-Cubs

-Giants

-Astros (Wild Card)

 

AL Division Winners

-Red Sox

-Twins

-A's

-Angels (Wild Card) (Flipped a coin between them and the Yankees, Angels won)

 

Playoffs

-A's beat Twins

-Red Sox beat Angels

-Phillies beat Astros

-Cubs beat Giants

 

-A's beat Red Sox

-Phillies beat Cubs

 

-A's beat Phillies

 

I REALLY wanted to pick the Sox or Cubs, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.

 

As for the awards:

AL MVP - Vladimir Guerrero

AL Cy Young - Roy Halladay

NL MVP - Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young - Mark Prior

 

Some other predicitons:

-Kelvim Escobar's going to be Anaheim's best starter.

-The Cubs and Red Sox will lose in the playoffs in even more painfull ways than last year.

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Guest FrigidSoul

The A's are a worse team than last year...I don't understand how anybody could pick them to win the WS...Wild Card maybe, but nothing more. Anyways here's mine.

 

AL East - Red Sox

AL Central - Royals

AL West - Angels

AL Wild Card - Yankees

 

AL MVP - A-Hole...er A-Rod

AL Cy Young - Curt Schilling

 

NL East - Phillies

NL Central - Cubs

NL West - San Diego

NL Wild Card - Houston

 

NL MVP - Pujols

NL Cy Young - Mark Prior

 

 

Playoffs

 

Red Sox over Royals

Angels over Yankees

 

Red Sox over Angels

 

Cubs over Padres

Houston over Phillies

 

Houston over Cubs

 

World Series - Red Sox over Houston in 6

WS MVP - Keith Foulke with 3 Saves in 5 2/3 innings of work. Doesn't give up an earned run.

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