AP Poll Finds Bush, Kerry Tied in Race

[Guest Cerebus]

AP Poll Finds Bush, Kerry Tied in Race   

 

By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

 

WASHINGTON - In the first poll since John Kerry (news - web sites) locked up the Democratic nomination, Kerry and President Bush (news - web sites) are tied while independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) has captured enough support to affect the outcome, validating Democrats' fears.

 

The Republican incumbent had the backing of 46 percent, Kerry 45 percent and Nader, the 2000 Green Party candidate who entered the race last month, was at 6 percent in the survey conducted for The Associated Press by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

 

Bush and the four-term Massachusetts senator, who emerged as the nominee Tuesday after a string of primary race wins over several rivals, have been running close or Kerry has been ahead in most recent polls that did not include Nader.

 

Since Nader entered the race Feb. 22, campaign strategists and political analysts have been trying to assess the impact of another presidential bid by the consumer activist whom Democrats blame for Al Gore (news - web sites)'s loss in 2000.

 

Four years ago, Nader appeared on the ballot in 43 states and Washington, D.C., garnering only 2.7 percent of the vote. But in Florida and New Hampshire, Bush won such narrow victories that had Gore received the bulk of Nader's votes in those states, he would have won the general election.

 

Exit polls from 2000 show that about half of Nader's voters would have backed Gore in a two-way race. Nader dismisses the spoiler label.

 

While Nader's support in the AP-Ipsos poll was 6 percent, his backing in polls in 2000 fluctuated in the single digits — often at about 4 percent, but sometimes higher. This year, Nader is unlikely to get the Green Party nod and faces a stiff challenge in getting his name on the ballot in 50 states.

 

Kenneth Freeman, an 86-year-old retiree from New Smyrna Beach, Fla., who leans Democratic, was clearly unhappy with Nader's presidential bid.

 

"Ralph Nader is fouling it all up," Freeman said. "He's taking votes away from the Democrats. I think he's on an ego trip."

 

Bush's job approval in the AP-Ipsos poll was 48 percent, with 49 percent disapproving, which is essentially the same as last month when 47 percent approved of the president's job performance.

 

His approval rating, which soared close to 90 percent after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and remained high for months, has dipped to the lowest levels of his presidency in recent weeks.

 

Six in 10 said the country is on the wrong track, up from last month, while slightly more than a third of those surveyed — 35 percent — said the country is headed in the right direction.

 

"We're 240-something days from Election Day. We've got a long way to go and expect it to be a close race throughout, no matter what the factors are," said Terry Holt, a spokesman for the Bush campaign.

 

The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday as Kerry captured nine of 10 Super Tuesday elections and claimed the nomination. Nightly results suggested that Kerry did not get a bounce from winning the nomination.

 

"For all those who want to bring change to America, we need to remain united behind the Democratic nominee," said Kerry campaign spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter.

 

Kerry, who had solid backing from 28 percent of the voters, was running strong among minorities, people with low incomes, single people, older voters and Catholics.

 

Bush, who had solid backing from 37 percent, performed well among whites, men, Protestants, homeowners and suburban dwellers.

 

"I'm worried about the Democrats taking control," said Stephanie Rahaniotis, a Republican from Lynbrook, N.Y. She said after the Sept. 11 attacks, she feels safer with Bush in charge and thinks Democrats will "divert our attention from the military."

 

In the poll, Nader was most likely to get the backing of young adults, independents and maybe a GOP voter.

 

Republican Virgil Ahlberg of Apison, Tenn., said he is seriously considering a vote for Nader.

 

"Bush has come across as a little more aggressive and warlike than I like," he said. "I like Ralph Nader being in the race. I like his practicality and taking people to task for things they promise to do, things that aren't being addressed."

 

The AP-Ipsos poll of 771 registered voters was taken March 1-3 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

[Vern Gagne 0]

I call for a ban on all Presidential Polls. It's March, and polls don't determine who the President will be.

[NoCalMike 0]

Wouldn't make sense for Nader to have more support then in 2000, but who knows really.

[Guest Brian]

Actually, I can see it happening. Alot of people are totally disallusioned, and Kerry's not exactly as beacon of charisma or hope. Dean energized alot of the left, and they ended up real disappointed with what they got. Kerry looks right now like a guy who's heading for the middle grounds; not taking a real firm stance on gay marriage, tax cuts, or the war. It's like, I'll do part of this but I don't have the balls to do the whole thing.

[NoCalMike 0]

Actually, I can see it happening. Alot of people are totally disallusioned, and Kerry's not exactly as beacon of charisma or hope. Dean energized alot of the left, and they ended up real disappointed with what they got. Kerry looks right now like a guy who's heading for the middle grounds; not taking a real firm stance on gay marriage, tax cuts, or the war. It's like, I'll do part of this but I don't have the balls to do the whole thing.

right, but it seems like the current conensus is, "don't vote for Nader or we will get 4 more years of bush" A lot of Nader supporters have spoken out and said they are too afraid not to vote for Kerry.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Nader's support will drop severely when it's actually election time. I'll be surprised if he pulls in more than 2% of the vote this year, unless Kerry can't reel in the most fervent of Deaniacs.

 

Polling at this point is retarded, but the media is keen to make news where it can. Neither campaign has really started so they'll be a bit hard-pressed.

[Guest Brian]

Is Kerry really that appealing?

[teke184 0]

Is Kerry really that appealing?

I'd say that Kerry's sole appeal is that he is NOT George W. Bush. Outside of that, I personally feel he's a half-assed candidate at best based solely on electoral geography.

 

Massachussets, Kerry's home state, is a Democrat stronghold, which means that they won't pick up the incumbent bonus of winning a state that could be a battleground. On top of that, the Dems picked up the entire region of New England, minus New Hampshire, so Kerry gives no regional bonus. Maine is the only state that was even CLOSE to going to Bush besides New Hampshire.

 

Kerry may also have trouble keeping some of the states that Gore won by tight margins in 2000. These include Oregon (Gore won the 7 Electoral Votes (EV) by 7000 votes in 2000.), Minnesota (10 EV by 60,000, or 2%), Wisconsin (11 EV by 5,000, or 0.21%), New Mexico (5 EV by a mere 300 votes, or 0.07%), and Iowa (7 EV by 4,000 votes, or 0.32%).

 

 

Outside of a major coup in a battleground state like Florida or Ohio, Kerry's going to need a VP that will give him a chance in a state he really needs or ensures he keeps a state that he's in danger of losing.

 

The top two names thrown around as VP candidates for this reason are John Edwards (SC), whom you all know, and Bill Richardson (NM). (As mentioned before, New Mexico went for Gore by a mere 300 votes in 2000.)

 

Bill Clinton's name has come up as a VP candidate but I think electoral law will prohibit that from happening, as the Constitution now says that a President can only serve two terms and, by having Bubba as VP, he'd be in position to re-assume the White House if something happened to Kerry.

[Guest thebigjig]

I dont know where anyone has heard BILL's name being mentioned... however, I've read several things in the past week about Hillary

 

And yes, Kerry's appeal is that he's not Dubyah... that's it. I dont like Kerry, but I'll vote for him, simply because I think he would be a hell of alot better than what we've got, but he's definitely not my candidate, and I very seriously doubt I'll be as passionate as I was during the primary season

 

And as for Nader... what the fuck drives this guy? What makes people like Nader, Sharpton, Kucinich, and Mosely Braun think they could possibly win?

[Guest Cerebus]

Ego bigjig. Pure ego.

[Guest thebigjig]

Ego bigjig. Pure ego.

yeah, definitely... but you would think that they would take a hint, especially when they become running jokes

[Firestarter 0]

Did someone say "LaRouche?"

[cawthon777 0]

I dont know where anyone has heard BILL's name being mentioned... however, I've read several things in the past week about Hillary

Not too sure if Hillary wants to go through 8 years of being VP and THEN run for office. I could much more easily see her running in 2008 after Bush's second term is up.

[Guest thebigjig]

I dont know where anyone has heard BILL's name being mentioned... however, I've read several things in the past week about Hillary

Not too sure if Hillary wants to go through 8 years of being VP and THEN run for office. I could much more easily see her running in 2008 after Bush's second term is up.

In either case, I really dont want to see Hillary period... if we get that then I just simply won't vote, simply because I hate Hillary with a passion

[cawthon777 0]

In either case, I really dont want to see Hillary period... if we get that then I just simply won't vote, simply because I hate Hillary with a passion

Well I hate her too but if she's running against say ... Rudy ... you would rather not vote at all rather than voting for her opposition?

[Guest thebigjig]

In either case, I really dont want to see Hillary period... if we get that then I just simply won't vote, simply because I hate Hillary with a passion

Well I hate her too but if she's running against say ... Rudy ... you would rather not vote at all rather than voting for her opposition?

I like Guilliani... I really do, but I have a feeling that if he ever were to become our president, then what you are seeing with the FCC overreacting about everything, would expand to dangerous levels... this is the same guy that went on a moral crusade to make everyone in New York be nice to one another and the Mayor in Ghostbusters said it best...

 

"Being miserable and treating other people like dirt is every New Yorker's God-given right"

[Guest Brian]

I don't understand why Nader's not running on the green party ticket because last time around the green party won a bunch of local seats, about a thrid of what they ran for. Despite being blamed for the loss, he got the party a bunch of pub.

 

But the point is to reform the two party system. Democrat have been moving too close to center, and they're not addressing topics that affect their base.Look at how they've screwed organized labor lately. They've turned their back on African Americans.

[Swift Terror 0]

So how much of a bump will Kerry get now that....North Korea is endorsing him.

[Guest Cerebus]

It will boost his ratings among authoritarians I guess...

[Guest thebigjig]

It will boost his ratings among authoritarians I guess...

and Asian Elvis impersonators

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Did someone say "LaRouche?"

I actually think he's still on the ballot in Pennsylvania

[Guest Brian]

People will end up getting cold feet in the booth anyways, so the Nader numbers are worthless.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

It will boost his ratings among authoritarians I guess...

But Kerry's already got the Ninth Circuit of Appeals vote locked up...