Is the GOP headed toward irrelevance?

[Guest Banders Kennany]

GOP's mad dash to irrelevance

by Juan Gonzalez

 

 

By now you've heard all kinds of opinions about the reelection of George W. Bush and what it means for America's continued turn to the right.

Well, here's one you haven't heard.

 

In winning their big victory this week, Republican leaders dug their party's future political grave.

 

And they did it over over the same issue that always has haunted American politics - race.

 

Race is that huge elephant in the living room that many white people swear no longer exists, yet they never take their eyes off of it. So much of our nation's history has centered on what to do about blacks and Native Americans, and lately Hispanics and Asians, and this election was no different.

 

Bush and Kerry rarely mentioned race on the campaign trail, yet the loyal followers of each understood perfectly how their policies would affect racial minorities.

 

Forget what you've been told the past few days about Bush and the Republicans making any major inroads into the black and Hispanic vote. Blacks and Latinos, even Asians, voted in greater numbers for the Democrats than they ever have. And they did so because they feel deeply threatened by the current Republican leadership.

 

For the past few days, the major media have claimed national exit polls show Bush increased his percentage of the black vote from 8% in 2000 to 11% this year, and that he also saw an increase from 35% to 44% among Latinos.

 

At least when it comes to Hispanics, those exit polls were just as wrong as they were with their overall analysis of the vote.

 

Latinos across the country voted nearly 68% to 31% for Kerry, about the same percentage as Al Gore got against Bush in 2000, says Antonio Gonzalez, director of the Texas-based William C. Velasquez Institute. The institute conducted its own exit polls both nationally and in Florida.

 

According to Gonzalez, the polls used by the national media are overly weighted to suburban voters, and since Latinos are the most urbanized of any population group and mostly concentrated in 14 states, the usual exit polls completely undercount Latino voters in the cities.

 

In Florida, for example, home to a large conservative Cuban community, Gonzalez found that Bush's Hispanic support dropped dramatically, from 65% in 2000 to 56% this year.

 

And most important, the overall Latino turnout was astounding. It jumped from 5.9 million voters in 2000 to nearly 8 million this year - an increase of 33%.

 

As for blacks, even if you assume the small percentage increase in the Bush vote is accurate, and that remains to be proven, the key trend to grasp is the enormous overall jump in the black vote.

 

About 13.2 million blacks voted this year, compared to only 10.5 million in 2000, according to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. That's a jump of more than 25%.

 

What would you rather have if you were Kerry, 92% of 10.5 million votes, which Gore got in 2000, or 88% of 13.2 million votes, which Kerry may have received this year?

 

Meanwhile, Asians are estimated to have given Kerry 58% of the approximately 3 million votes they cast this year.

 

According to my rough calculations, blacks, Latinos and Asians accounted for 34% of all Democratic votes nationwide this week.

 

Minority turnout was so huge that for the first time two Latinos captured seats in the U.S. Senate, Democrat Ken Salazar in Colorado and Republican Mel Martinez in Florida, and one African-American, Democrat Barak Obama in Illinois.

 

But on the Republican side, those three minority groups represented only 8% of the huge voter turnout for Bush.

 

"You can't get many white people to admit it, but the Democratic Party is seen by many Bush voters as the party of blacks, Hispanics and immigrants," said Bob Muehlenkamp, a white labor union organizer from New York who spent the past few months working for Kerry in southern Ohio. Throw in liberal whites, union households, gays and young people, and you have most of the rest.

 

Republicans, on the other hand, have become a largely white people's party.

 

Muehlenkamp, who was reared in Cincinnati, said he was amazed by how much of the Republican upsurge in the suburbs of his hometown and how much of Ohio's obsession with ballot security was being driven by anti-black feelings among whites.

 

Everyone knows our nation is changing rapidly. But the party leaders who count faces and votes for a living know more than most how much it's changing. By 2050, a majority in our country will trace origins to Africa, Asia and Latin America.

 

Increasingly, the future face of America sees the Democratic Party as its welcoming home. Republican leaders can savor their immediate victory for now. Their party's grave gets deeper every day.

 

Interesting article, though I think it is very borne out of sour grapes that Mr. Hispanic Attention John Kerry didn't proclaim the presidency.

 

What do all you think?

[The Czech Republic]

Yeah that GOP is a sinking ship

[Rob E Dangerously]

Juan Gonzalez, you really blew it in 2004. Way to go Juan Gone

[Guest Anglesault]

Juan Gonzalez, you really blew it in 2004. Way to go Juan Gone

162!

[treble]

I was going to make some joke about him turning down a trade to Montreal, but I couldn't think of a way to make it funny.

[Justice]

Eh, I think that most experts agree that Bush gained a bunch in the Hispanic community this year, which is probably why he was able to secure Florida and the national vote. This guy is just trying to use one measly poll to try and discredit the big win.

[Guest Banders Kennany]

True, I thought he was really stretching to find too much in the polls. But if whites are to be outnumbered by minorities in 2050, the GOP will need to find a way to reach out and bring more on board. But I wouldn't worry, they have like 45 more years to think up something.

[The Czech Republic]

Or we tell Whitey to have more sex.

[Guest subliminal_animal]

I think the putting his little picture up was a nice touch.

[AndrewTS]

True, I thought he was really stretching to find too much in the polls. But if whites are to be outnumbered by minorities in 2050, the GOP will need to find a way to reach out and bring more on board. But I wouldn't worry, they have like 45 more years to think up something.

As long as the US maintains its current political structure, we'll always be a two-party system, I believe.

 

What this will mean, I believe, is just that the GOP will shift towards a more moderate platform while the DNC drifts further left.

 

If either one vanished, another would take its place.

 

What I don't like about a lot of these projections are that they take it for granted population will increase at the current rate. Likely, what will happen is that you will minorities increasing their educations and getting better jobs. With that, you often see decreased numbers of children being born.

 

So I do see a large increase over that time period, but I don't know about them becoming a majority.

[kkktookmybabyaway]

Many of the Democrats of today will eventually get real jobs and become Republicans right when the Republicans of today get old and die. That's how it works...

[Big Ol' Smitty]

...I actually didn't think older people becoming Republicans had anything to do with getting jobs. I thought it was just kind of giving up on life and getting fat and complacent.

[Styles]

Isn't the trend for Hispanics going up? In fact, (even though its still heavily lopsided), aren't more black and Jews starting to trend Republican too?

[Guest Loss]

I'm surprised most Hispanics weren't already Republican, at least the ones living in Texas, considering Bush was their governor.

[kkktookmybabyaway]

Blacks are a lost cause and will forever be slaves to the Democrat party.

 

But Hispanics on the other hand ... I have a feeling once many of these immigrant families start to improve their lot in life in terms of financial succes and such ( and more power to them), a great many of them will go Republican...

[The Czech Republic]

GOP is gonna pick up the blacks before the Jews, I bet

[Justice]

Well, the thing he's wrong: Many other polls show a very large jump in the way of Hispanic voters. Like, a 7 to 8 point jump, which is insane. Blacks he got a small bump, but the Hispanic one was really well noted. It's one of the reasons he won, I'd argue.

[kkktookmybabyaway]

But of course the real reason he got a decent size of the Hispanic vote is because he says a sentence in Spanish when stumping down South...

[DerangedHermit]

Blacks are a lost cause and will forever be slaves to the Democrat party.

I think you probably could've used a better choice of word.......

*pulls collar*

[kkktookmybabyaway]

No, I don't think I could have.

 

Wait a second, how about this? Blacks have a niggardly attitude in regards to voting for any political group but the Democrat Party.

 

Better?...

[The Czech Republic]

I hate the Democrats' stance toward the blacks, that "you need us." It's always bothered me.

[2GOLD]

I hate the Democrats' stance toward the blacks, that "you need us." It's always bothered me.

 

Well, I could make some crack about remembering how Lincoln was a Republican while the South was mostly dominated by Democrats before the parties shifted but I'll save it....

 

Ah crap.

 

The Democrats have a very Jack Nicholson in Few Good Men view about the black populace. That "You need me on that wall!" view even though it's not even true anymore.

[LatinAssasin]

I'm surprised most Hispanics weren't already Republican, at least the ones living in Texas, considering Bush was their governor.

A lot of hispanics are democrats, because most are reliant on all the welfare programs that democrats start. Bush lost my city in 2000. It was 70 some percent for Gore. I see it everyday in my city. There are families that will be or already are on welfare for several generations.

 

Goes to show you how money will cause you to shift your views on anything else, since most hispanics are conservative considering the Catholic's stranglehold on them.

[AndrewTS]

LatinAssassin: Aren't most Catholics Democrat, though, anyway?

[The Czech Republic]

See, I always thought that, but my friend is Catholic and says the people at his church are mostly Republican and the priest drops hints like "Now I'm not supposed to endorse a candidate but I think we all know which one is looking out for us." So I don't know, Andrew.

[Guest MikeSC]

I hate the Democrats' stance toward the blacks, that "you need us." It's always bothered me.

Well, blame blacks for allowing the Dems to think that. If blacks ever voted Republican, they'd see the Dems actually do something to try and help them.

-=Mike

[Guest Banders Kennany]

That's good that you see both sides of the political spectrum and aren't biased in what should be objectified judmgnets. \

 

But Hispanics on the other hand ... I have a feeling once many of these immigrant families start to improve their lot in life in terms of financial succes and such ( and more power to them), a great many of them will go Republican...

Well said, but I think the same can also be said for all immigrant families.

 

I'm surprised most Hispanics weren't already Republican, at least the ones living in Texas, considering Bush was their governor.

Well, not to be rude, but many probably could not register because they came illegally. For many the language barrier was also too much for them to find a job here, and many may have lacked an education coming from a poor area of Mexico, where they may not feel a need to vote. I think Bush's conservative values and strong ties to the church are what helped him win with Hispanic voters there. That along with his ability to both speak Spanish and that being the son of a former president gives him an air that he knows what he's doing.

[LatinAssasin]

Well, not to be rude, but many probably could not register because they came illegally. For many the language barrier was also too much for them to find a job here, and many may have lacked an education coming from a poor area of Mexico, where they may not feel a need to vote. I think Bush's conservative values and strong ties to the church are what helped him win with Hispanic voters there. That along with his ability to both speak Spanish and that being the son of a former president gives him an air that he knows what he's doing.

As bad as he made this sound, it's mostly true.

 

Most church going hispanics should be Repubs since they're very conservative. Where I live (border town) it's all democrat because it all comes down to the dollar. That's what I was trying to say.

 

Hispanics are mostly conservative, but a lot are poor so they put that aside because Dems open up more welfare programs. They're conservative Dems. I'm a liberal Repub. It's one of those things you gotta see firsthand.

[kkktookmybabyaway]

LatinA's right. Just wait until many of these Hispanic families improve their lot in life -- they'll swing GOP...