The OAO AFC CHAMPIONSHIP THREAD!!!

January 26, 2005

Here's something to chew on:

If he had went for the touchdown and came up dry, would we be sitting here, arguing that he should have went for the field goal? Or would we be sitting here saying "well, they took their best shot, it just wasn't meant to be"?

The only reason the field goal even enters the mind, in my opinion, is because that's what Cowher chose to do. It just seems far too intuitive to go for the touchdown to me.

I was thinking the same thing as I put my .02 into the subject, but concluded that it wouldn't have netted him the backlash that going for the FG did, again, because of the score and situation in the game. There are altogether usually three different things that dictate what your next playcall will be:

1. Down and distance

2. The score

3. The amount of time left in the game/clock management

It's 4th and 2 and the Pats had been playing amazing run defense the whole game, but all of a sudden your offense has woken up along with your home crowd that's rocking. The most important part here however, is #2, which, I hate to keep stating this over and over, but kicking a FG has the same effect as being stopped on 4th down. You kick a FG (and remember kickers have missed from less than 20 yards, so that's not even a gimme.. I'd point out Ryan Longwell's embarassing miss at the end of the first half from the Packers-Vikings playoff game as an example) or you don't score any points, it doesn't matter. 11 points still says you have to at minimum, make 3 scoring plays: Another FG, a TD, and the 2 point conversion to go with the TD. If the Pats were up by 13, that would be a different story and the right call to make. But 11 points makes it a 2 score game. Especially with less than 14 minutes to go in the game, you need to do whatever possible to put the game in your favor.

I don't know about that. If they were pinned down at the 2, the Patriots may have taken the safety anyway. The Steelers would have still needed at least two TD's to win, even with the safety, and I can't imagine Belichick giving his streaking opponent possibly great field position should the punt get blocked or the Steelers have a good return. I could be totally off base(as it would take it from a situation where the Steelers need two TD's to tie the game to needing two to win the game) about that, but I remember the media patting Belichick on the back awhile ago for his "situational coaching" skills by pulling a similar move in a game.

I know what you're talking about, and I remember that MNF game where Belichick was endlessly praised for taking the enormous risk and having it work in his favor. I had forgotten what the circumstances were in that game that made it so effective, though, but I know it had to do with the 3 essentials I spelled out above that enabled the Pats to get the ball back quickly. Being down by 14 points, anything that'll chip away at the lead would help if the TD fails, but the important part is that the Steelers get the ball back and another chance to score, thus negating the change New England has of running the clock. Being down at the 2 with the score the way it was, you would have seen NE probably play against the clock and just take 3 straight running plays, if that didn't net them a first down, they would punt the ball and give the Steelers the ball back in far worse field position and with less time on the clock. But that's nothing compared to what happened, which was that Pittsburgh put absolutely no faith in their offense (remember veteran players and rookies alike LIVE for this kind of stuff in the playoffs), kicked a FG which did absolutely nothing, and then gave the Pats better field position by kicking off and giving New England the ball at a much better spot than the 2, I can tell you that.

Cartman · January 26, 2005

FOXBORO, Mass. -- New England quarterback Tom Brady had a 103-degree fever the night before the Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC championship game, Sports Illustrated reported.

The magazine said in this week's issue that Brady had an intravenous line in his left -- non-throwing -- arm on Saturday night while fighting off chills in his Pittsburgh hotel room.

In outdoor temperatures of 11 degrees, Brady threw for two touchdowns with no interceptions to lead the Patriots to a 41-27 victory and their third Super Bowl appearance in four years.

The Czech Republic · January 26, 2005

OMG HIS TEMPERTURE WAS AS HOT AS HIS BODY AND HIS GAME!!!! ESPNLOL2005!!!!

The Man in Blak · January 26, 2005

With 2 yards to go there is too much of a risk for failyure especially against NE.

Okay, then let's do some risk analysis.

First, before we consider all of the possibilities, let's establish how we want to measure success. The bare minimum that the Steelers should want to shoot for is to tie the ballgame up on the last play of the game (clock = 0:00) - anything better than that is just gravy. So, in terms of probability, that particular scenario would give both New England and Pittsburgh a 50% chance of winning the game going into overtime.

At the 4th down play, the Steelers were down by 14 points. If we say that every point that the Steelers would score would increase their probability of winning by 2%, that means that - at that moment in the game - the Steelers had a 22% chance of winning the game; this seems pretty intuitive to me - the Steelers had an outside shot, but they were going to have to make some serious plays to pull it off.

The other factor the Steelers had to overcome was the clock: at the 4th down play at the 2, they had 13:45 left on the clock. If we consider the scenario where neither the Steelers and the Patriots score anything for the remainder of the game, that means that the 13:45 that would elapse on the clock would reduce the Steelers probability of winning the game to 0% (they can't win the game if there's behind in points and there's no time left). That means the time on the clock (825 seconds) is equal to 22% of the Steelers' probability to win the game; after we do some crazy math, which I'm not going to throw down here (the post is already a novella), we find that each minute that passes reduces the Steelers chance of winning/tying by 1.6%

So, to review:

- every point the Steelers score = +2.0%

- every point the Patriots score = -2.0%

- every minute off the clock = -1.6%

Now, let's consider the possibilities and apply the appropriate weights - for the sake of brevity, I'll abbreviate the list of possibilities into three minute intervals:

Field Goal Block:

PIT miss FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 3 minutes = -4.8

PIT miss FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 6 minutes = -9.6

PIT miss FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 9 minutes = -14.4

PIT miss FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 12 minutes = -19.2

PIT miss FG, NE gets FG on drive of less than 3 minutes = -10.8

PIT miss FG, NE gets FG on drive of less than 6 minutes = -15.6

PIT miss FG, NE gets FG on drive of less than 9 minutes = -20.4

PIT miss FG, NE gets FG on drive of less than 12 minutes = -25.2

PIT miss FG, NE gets TD on drive of less than 3 minutes = -18.8

PIT miss FG, NE gets TD on drive of less than 6 minutes = -23.6

PIT miss FG, NE gets TD on drive of less than 9 minutes = -28.4

PIT miss FG, NE gets TD on drive of less than 12 minutes = -33.2

PIT gets FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 3 minutes = +2.8

PIT gets FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 6 minutes = -3.6

PIT gets FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 9 minutes = -8.4

PIT gets FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 12 minutes = -13.2

PIT gets FG, NE gets FG on drive of less than 3 minutes = -4.8

PIT gets FG, NE gets FG on drive of less than 6 minutes = -9.6

PIT gets FG, NE gets FG on drive of less than 9 minutes = -14.4

PIT gets FG, NE gets FG on drive of less than 12 minutes = -19.2

PIT gets FG, NE gets TD on drive of less than 3 minutes = -12.8

PIT gets FG, NE gets TD on drive of less than 6 minutes = -17.6

PIT gets FG, NE gets TD on drive of less than 9 minutes = -22.4

PIT gets FG, NE gets TD on drive of less than 12 minutes = -27.2

Number of positive possibilities: 1

Total number of possibilities: 24

Probability of increasing chances to tie with FG: 4.1%

Touch Down Block:

PIT miss FG, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 3 minutes = -4.8

PIT miss TD, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 6 minutes = -9.6

PIT miss TD, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 9 minutes = -14.4

PIT miss TD, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 12 minutes = -19.2

PIT miss TD, NE gets FG on drive of less than 3 minutes = -10.8

PIT miss TD, NE gets FG on drive of less than 6 minutes = -15.6

PIT miss TD, NE gets FG on drive of less than 9 minutes = -20.4

PIT miss TD, NE gets FG on drive of less than 12 minutes = -25.2

PIT miss TD, NE gets TD on drive of less than 3 minutes = -18.8

PIT miss TD, NE gets TD on drive of less than 6 minutes = -23.6

PIT miss TD, NE gets TD on drive of less than 9 minutes = -28.4

PIT miss TD, NE gets TD on drive of less than 12 minutes = -33.2

PIT gets TD, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 3 minutes = +9.2

PIT gets TD, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 6 minutes = +4.4

PIT gets TD, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 9 minutes = -0.4

PIT gets TD, NE held scoreless on drive of less than 12 minutes = -5.2

PIT gets TD, NE gets FG on drive of less than 3 minutes = +3.2

PIT gets TD, NE gets FG on drive of less than 6 minutes = -1.6

PIT gets TD, NE gets FG on drive of less than 9 minutes = -6.4

PIT gets TD, NE gets FG on drive of less than 12 minutes = -11.2

PIT gets TD, NE gets TD on drive of less than 3 minutes = -4.8

PIT gets TD, NE gets TD on drive of less than 6 minutes = -9.6

PIT gets TD, NE gets TD on drive of less than 9 minutes = -14.4

PIT gets TD, NE gets TD on drive of less than 12 minutes = -19.2

Number of positive possibilities: 3

Total number of possibilities: 24

Probability of increasing chances to tie with TD: 12.5%

By using this, we can see that Cowher reduced his team's chance of tying by 8.4% by taking the FG instead of the touchdown (12.5% versus 4.1%). However, you're probably thinking - a 50/50 chance on field goals? No way!

So, let's even take out all of the possibilities where the Steelers miss the FG - that's the impetus of the conservative strategy, right? Guaranteed points over risk?

Field Goal Block (no misses)