MLB Tater Totals Tumble

[hhh6294]

According to today's paper, Home run totals for the league are at 2,685, a drop off of 5% from last season, and if this keeps up, the league won't break 5,000 homers for the first time since 1997.

 

Could it be that the tougher illegal substance laws are having an affect, or is it becuase of better pitching?

 

discuss.

[CanadianGuitarist]

A combination of more slump, less juice and better pitching.

 

Sorry, I realise that won't exactly light a fire under the ass of this thread, but thats my two cents.

[razazteca]

The 5% decline is because Barry Bonds is "hurt".

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

Home run totals were down April and May but reached previous totals in June/July. The main reason I would suspect is the declines of several aging sluggers, including Jim Thome, Barry Bonds, and Sammy Sosa. Steroids? The warning signs of decline were evident a year ago, and such declines are not unusual at their ages.

[Guest Brian]

Wasn'y weather hurting things at the start of the year?

[hhh6294]

...5% means 141 home runs. At best, Barry would have given somewhere between 20-30 so far, which still leaves 100+ unaccounted for.

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

Here are a few other sources of the loss.

 

One, the standard deviation of home run totals over the year is somewhere around 100. So you could expect a swing of 50 simply by random chance.

 

Two, the Washington Nationals moved from a neutral park in Montreal to RFK Stadium, an extremely difficult home run park. The Nationals hit and allowed a total of 166 home runs last year by the end of June. Right now, they have seen 132 home runs in their games. That is a decline of 34.