Campaign 2008

[The Niggardly King 0]

See, I tried to tell you all... women fuck it all up. I hope Obama lays down the pimp hand on those stupid bitches.

[SuperJerk 0]

All I'm going to say to Marvin about the minimum wage is that his numbers and entire argument are based on the false premise that it's primarily teenagers who are on it.

 

.

 

My source is 2 years old but it seems to be the most current available statistics from the Dept of Labor and I cant see it being too much different now.

 

Minimum wage workers tend to be young. About half of workers earning $5.15 or less were under age 25, and about one-fourth of workers earning at or below the minimum wage were age 16-19.

 

SOURCE: US Department of Labor

 

25% is a significant number for actual teenagers, and the under 25 category is half of minimum wage earners.

 

If your argument is that a minimum wage increase causes higher unemployment, and you can only show a spike for 25% of the people on minimum wage, you really have not proven anything.

 

[SuperJerk 0]

Obama opts out of public financing system

 

Story Highlights

*Sen. Barack Obama says he won't accept more than $80 million in public funds

*Illinois Democrat says campaign finance system is "broken"

*Obama has raised more than twice the amount as Sen. John McCain

*McCain adviser calls decision "a broken promise of staggering dimensions"

 

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama told supporters Thursday that he has decided not to accept public financing for his general election campaign.

 

In an e-mail message, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said the decision means that his campaign will forgo more than $80 million in public funds.

 

In exchange for taking public funds, candidates usually agree to a cap on the amount of money they can spend on their campaigns.

 

"It's not an easy decision, and especially because I support a robust system of public financing of elections," Obama wrote. "But the public financing of presidential elections as it exists today is broken, and we face opponents who've become masters at gaming this broken system."

 

Obama repeatedly broke campaign fundraising records during the Democratic primary season. Since January 2007, he has raised more than $272 million.

 

Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, raised less than half that amount, roughly $100 million, over the same period.

 

Obama's advisers argue that the Illinois Democrat has set up a "parallel" public fundraising system by soliciting small donations over the Internet.

 

Two months ago, McCain criticized Obama for appearing to backtrack from a previous commitment to accept public financing for his presidential campaign.

 

Steve Schmidt, a senior McCain adviser, called Obama's decision to opt out of public financing "a broken promise of staggering dimensions."

 

"Obama's candidacy is based on words, and it seems like every day that passes, those words look emptier and emptier when judged against his actions," Schmidt said.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/19/oba...cing/index.html

 

There are so many ways to spin this to the public as a positive, and most voters really don't understand the campaign finance system, I doubt this will have any political downside for Obama. True, he broke a promise, but you have to admit, he's got a good point about opting out because of the 527 groups. The upsides are obvious: he can easily outspend John McCain, he can control his message better without relying on 527 middle-men, and he can tout his dependence on grass-roots support.

 

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

All I'm going to say to Marvin about the minimum wage is that his numbers and entire argument are based on the false premise that it's primarily teenagers who are on it.

 

.

 

My source is 2 years old but it seems to be the most current available statistics from the Dept of Labor and I cant see it being too much different now.

 

Minimum wage workers tend to be young. About half of workers earning $5.15 or less were under age 25, and about one-fourth of workers earning at or below the minimum wage were age 16-19.

 

SOURCE: US Department of Labor

 

25% is a significant number for actual teenagers, and the under 25 category is half of minimum wage earners.

 

If your argument is that a minimum wage increase causes higher unemployment, and you can only show a spike for 25% of the people on minimum wage, you really have not proven anything.

 

 

Economists cautioned the rise in the highly visible unemployment rate might overstate weaknesses in the labor market. Much of the increase was attributed to a leap in teenage unemployment to 18.7% last month from 15.4% in April. Philip Rones, deputy commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, cautioned that the survey of households from which the unemployment rate is calculated tends to be volatile between April and July due to an inflow of young people into the work force. But the rise also underscores weakening prospects for employment this summer among those entering the work force. The jobless rate for workers aged 20 to 24 rose to 10.4% from 8.9% in April.

 

WSJ

 

Significant jumps in unemployment for two age groups who comprise about 1/2 of the total minimum wage earners. In fact, if you read that correctly, WSJ is blaming the .5% jump almost squarely on those two age groups.

[SuperJerk 0]

So any spike in unemployment, even those 9 months after the last modest minimum wage increase must be from a raise in the minimum wage and not other economic forces such as the recession?

 

from your source...

 

As you can see, the increasing levels in overall unemployment rates started before the last meager minimum wage hike took effect, and there have been other times when unemployment rates were vastly increased during times of recession and there was not alteration in the minimum wage.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

Screwing around here, I came up with this scenario:

 

If Obama wins all of the Kerry states plus New Mexico, Colorado, & Iowa & McCain flips New Hampshire (which seems like a plausible scenario) the result will be a 269-269 tie.

[SamoaRowe 0]

Well, I'll be doing my part to make sure that NH doesn't flip to McCain. But yeah, it is very possible.

[Guest Jesus Freaks on Coke]

Seriously, do they not realize that the best way they could help Obama's image would've been just to stay home? Any possible video clip of two women in "Terrorist Clothing" sitting behind Obama and cheering him on would've been played on a loop on Fox all the way til election day.

This isn't much better. Price Is Right Losing Horns on this one.

 

Oh God, this "I was raised on good old-fashioned values from the Kansas heartland" ad with the acoustic guitar playing in the background just gave me the dry heaves. I expected him to say "now let me spin you a yarn here."

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

Here's Obama's first general election ad, which is airing in like 17 or so states starting today, that Czech is talking about:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylVTBiGh00c

[Jingus 0]

Seriously, do they not realize that the best way they could help Obama's image would've been just to stay home? Any possible video clip of two women in "Terrorist Clothing" sitting behind Obama and cheering him on would've been played on a loop on Fox all the way til election day.

This isn't much better. Price Is Right Losing Horns on this one.

Mind explaining in a logical sense why this is wrong, instead of just quipping? Or hell, even specifying which "this" you're referring to, since you left it pretty vague.

[Guest]

Post-racial candidate

[Jingus 0]

In response to a post complaining about someone writing a short, obscure zinger instead of explaining what's on their mind... you write an even shorter, more obscure zinger?

[Guest]

I was saying that in general. I've wanted to post that ever since reading the story.

 

You know, he prides himself on being this post-racial candidate and then we have this. I just find it funny.

[Jingus 0]

Yeah, it's a dirty politician thing to do, but can you win a presidential election without doing dirty politician things? One reason I no longer bother voting is how it seems like every single candidate for high office has been turned into a shifty backstabbing bastard by the process, if they weren't already one beforehand. In the modern political arena, it's one big popularity contest and perception is reality and yadda yadda yadda. In a race this tight, a candidate can't afford to take a risk by alienating the stupid demographic of our country (who, unfortunately, vote just as much or more than the smart ones) by even casually looking like they're supporting someone who kinda resembles a suicide bomber, especially when there's already plenty of propaganda about him being a terrorist himself.

 

EDIT: weird thing, I went looking for some numbers about the total population of Muslims in this country, and found... there are no such numbers. Estimates literally range from 1 to 7 million, with all kinds of guesses in between. That's a pretty freakin' big margin of error.

[godthedog 0]

what does "post-racial" mean exactly? when has obama (or anyone from his campaign) called himself this?

 

worst offense of the yarn-spinning ad: he's wearing a flag pin.

[Guest]

Do I really need to post cases of Obama talking about racial unity? In what way does this support those cases of speech? Such an instance goes against the politics he's talked about during his whole campaign. It's awfully hypocritical, in fact, what better way to support his brand of politics than have these women sit on camera? Do what you say.

 

Still, she said, it was difficult to hear Obama's message of unity among races.

 

"As he's saying it, I'm thinking, 'Well, wait a minute, I was obviously ... profiled and discriminated against an hour ago.'"

 

Change.

 

 

RE: Post-racial, unified society, looking past one's skin color, all that. That's what I'd call post-racial. We'd call this anything but. I'd be just as quick to criticize any other candidate for doing something similar, regardless of their politics. I don't think it's right.

[Guest Jesus Freaks on Coke]

what does "post-racial" mean exactly?

I think it's like postmodern and post-rock.

 

Yeah, it's a dirty politician thing to do, but can you win a presidential election without doing dirty politician things?

No, but one of Obama's biggest selling points is that he isn't a dirty politician.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

Insider Advantage. 6/19. Likely voters. MoE 5% (5/20 results)

 

This HAS to be an outlier.

 

McCain And Obama Tied In Georgia

 

(6/19/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

 

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research. PollPosition is InsiderAdvantage’s new branding name (look for additional information and expansion of PollPosition in the coming months).

 

The Results:

 

McCain: 44%

Obama: 43%

Barr: 6%

Undecided: 7%

 

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/res...gia61919643.php

 

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

Obama has called the two Muslim women in question, & the women released this statement:

 

At the rally for Senator Obama in Detroit on Monday, June 16, two volunteers denied us seating behind the stage the Senator would soon take. The volunteers informed us that we were not allowed to sit in that area due to the hijab, the headscarf that each of us was wearing.

 

This incident was unfortunate and extremely disappointing. Senator Obama has called us each to personally convey his deepest apologies and acknowledge that this was inexcusable. We both immensely appreciate the Senator’s phone call and his commitment to remedy this issue. We commend him for displaying qualities befitting an effective President. We acknowledge that this injustice has been taken seriously and that Senator Obama does not tolerate discrimination against Arabs, Muslims or any community. We are assured that he and his staff are committed to upholding the principles of justice for all peoples and bringing about change we can believe in. The infringement on our rights occurred and has been addressed; now we are ready to move forward. We will continue to support Senator Obama in his campaign and wish him the best as the race continues.

 

Regards,

Shimaa Abdelfadeel

Hebba Aref

 

Obama campaign:

 

I reached out to Ms. Aref and Ms. Abdelfadeel this afternoon. I spoke with Ms. Abdelfadeel, and expressed my deepest apologies for the incident that occurred with volunteers at the event in Detroit. The actions of these volunteers were unacceptable and in no way reflect any policy of my campaign. I take deepest offense to and will continue to fight against discrimination against people of any religious group or background. Our campaign is about bringing people together, and I’m grateful that Ms. Abdelfadeel accepted our apology and I hope Ms. Aref and any who were offended accept my apology as well.

 

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06...red-from-stage/

 

 

[Guest]

Okay, I take what I said back. But the campaign workers who did that should be fired.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

You know, he prides himself on being this post-racial candidate and then we have this.

 

I've never heard Obama say he was a "post-racial" candidate, btw (I still don't know what that even means).

[Guest Jesus Freaks on Coke]

Of course Obama himself wouldn't call himself that. It sounds ridiculous. The media did.

[BruteSquad_BRODY 0]

Shimaa Abdelfadeel

 

 

Gesundheit

[godthedog 0]

RE: Post-racial, unified society, looking past one's skin color, all that. That's what I'd call post-racial. We'd call this anything but. I'd be just as quick to criticize any other candidate for doing something similar, regardless of their politics. I don't think it's right.

so you admit it's a made-up term that simplifies his position, and then criticize the position for being too simple.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

You know, he prides himself on being this post-racial candidate and then we have this.

 

I've never heard Obama say he was a "post-racial" candidate, btw (I still don't know what that even means).

 

we're past the race card..so he's just as white as Mccain and Mccain is just as black as Obama.

 

see..easy!

 

I saw the prediction today of Obama getting "Gored" by winning the popular vote and losing the election. If that happens, there will no doubt be riots everywhere.

[The Niggardly King 0]

thats like some hillary shit

[Jingus 0]

And now, allow me to stand on my soapbox for a minute, and tell you Why Surveys Are Bullshit.

 

First of all, Georgia is a better shot for Obama than any other recent Democratic candidate for one simple reason: there's a lot of black people there. (Let's please skip the argument over skin color not determining politics, and just agree that there are a whole lot of lazy, narrowminded, or generally contrary people who will vote for a candidate just because they share the same skin color/religion/gender/Other Distinguishing Feature, k? The study itself claims an 83% majority for Obama among black voters.) African-Americans only make up a little over 12% of the total US population, but in Georgia they comprise over 30% of the state's population. And I wouldn't say Georgia is a guaranteed red state anyway. Aside from voting for Carter both times, they also went for Clinton in 92.

 

Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

The Libertarian candidate never, ever gets anywhere near that much of the vote in the actual election. This is where the whole Margin Of Error thing really comes into play. It doesn't help that the survey included Barr as the only possible 3rd party option, and he's from Georgia, so it racks up the fake votes in his favor.

 

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters

Is 408 people really enough to be considered a representative sampling of a state with over seven million potential voters?

 

is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation.

And here's the real problem. Weighted? Weighted how? Is that like grading on a curve? What weights what and how does it change things and what are the rules and who decides that? None of this is explained in the article. Maybe if you counted up all the variables from their handy little charts and mercilessly extrapolated all the raw data and compared it to the numbers in the main article you might eventually answer half the questions I asked. I don't have that kind of mathematical talent or patience.

[Guest Jesus Freaks on Coke]

Here's Obama's first general election ad, which is airing in like 17 or so states starting today, that Czech is talking about:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylVTBiGh00c

Why, I do declare, Mrs. Peterson, that is a blue-ribbon apple pie. I reckon you'll make another for the quilting bee?

 

[PUT THAT DICK IN MY MOUTH! 0]

Chiming in to say that I'm pretty sure that Andrew Sullivan was the first to call Obama "post-racial," so let's all just agree to never use that term again.

[SuperJerk 0]

I saw the prediction today of Obama getting "Gored" by winning the popular vote and losing the election. If that happens, there will no doubt be riots everywhere.

I was thinking the same thing would happen in that scenario.