cabbageboy 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 I used to do a bit of betting 2 years ago until I lost some $$ and finally wised up to the fact that I suck at it. Let's analyze those games and I'll explain why those are iffy bets (that sadly I'd have probably bet on as well). Pittsburgh: Pitt is terrible, thinking they could go into Morgantown and put up a showing is a leap of faith. LSU: As has been stated, LSU has trouble covering period. Colorado: Nebraska tends to just flat out own Colorado, even in Boulder. Iowa State: Wasn't this at KU? Given Iowa St.'s tank job vs. Mizzou last year, the thought of them doing it again had to be there. Not a good enough team to either bet on or against. Mississippi: Ole Miss sucks this year, picking between them or Miss St. is pointless since either could blow the other out. Cincinnatti: Perhaps the Rutgers assraping in Louisville made them look worse than they are? A matchup of two bleh teams but Rutgers is at least bowl eligible. Notre Dame: This wasn't a bad pick really, but teams travelling out west is always a scary pick. Louisville: This was a case of the line simply being too big. Syracuse's D isn't too bad really, and while U of L ended up winning by 24 it was a far cry from the insane 36 point line. 30+ lines are something I'd avoid, it's just too many points. Oklahoma State: Not too bad of a pick since they play OU tough sometimes, but they are still one of the worst teams in the Big 12. UL Monroe: Eh, I learned from betting on bottom rung Div. 1 teams. Georgia Tech: Not a bad bet really, the UGA game could have gone either way. Florida State: As has been states, FSU sucks this year. Them going to the Swamp and having a good showing was unlikely. Mind you, I suck at betting but what I'd try and do was find games where I could pick an obvious winner, combined with a spread that seemed reasonable. Even obvious squash games like the U of L/Cuse would be stuff I'd avoid...I mean hell if U of L wins 55-20 you don't get any $$. What I'd go nuts doing was picking NFL games though. Sometimes I'd go 5-1 in terms of actual winners but end up going 2-4 in terms of covering the spread. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
iggymcfly 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Well, actually my big pick was the Iowa State game. ($400 out of $1300) With Stevie Hicks healthy, they were 6-0 including blowouts over Iowa and Texas A&M, and the big win over Colorado. What I didn't realize was that he'd reinjured the ankle in the fourth quarter against Colorado, and that even though he was starting against Kansas, he wasn't the same running back at all. He was visibly limping during the game and ended up with 14 yards on 14 carries. As for Florida State ($200 and my other big bet), I just figured that when they got their first loss (no Rose Bowl), and already had clinched the division, they really had nothing to play for, and that's why they'd been losing to teams like Clemson. I figured that in their big rivalry game they'd show signs of being a Top Ten team in terms of talent and easily beat the Gators. OK, wrong again. With Louisville and Notre Dame, I guess I just underestimated the letdown factor, as they had their worst home showing and worst road showing respectively. Out of their eight wins going into the game, Notre Dame's only win by less than 19 points was the win over Michigan. As for Louisville, sure 36 points looks like a huge spread, but look at the home scores for Louisville this year. def. Oregon State 63-27 (36 points) def. FAU 61-10 (51 points) def. North Carolina 69-14 (55 points) def. Pittsburgh 42-20 (22 points) def. Rutgers 56-5 (51 points) That 56-5 score also gave me the idea that Rutgers would have some leftover humiliation that would translate into a poor showing against Cincinnatti, but apparently that was completely wrong as well. As for LSU, they've actually done great against the spread for me against jobber teams this year, covering against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, North Texas, and Ole Miss. Anyway, yesterday, I was thinking it was all regression to the mean, and that maybe I really knew nothing at all, but now I'm thinking that once rivalry games start, everything's bizarro world. If I do the football betting thing next year, I'll of course tread more carefully all around, but I'm really going to tread carefully during the rivalry weeks. My 6-8 showing last week was worse than anything I'd done over the last month and a half, and then I followed it up with the 0-12 goose egg. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damaramu 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Why would you pick Oklahoma State? I mean there were a lot of teams you could've picked to beat OU this year, including Kansas, but OSU? They had no shot. Especially with Peterson being at full strength. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Report post Posted November 27, 2005 These ones were bad bets...... Pittsburgh LSU Colorado Iowa State Mississippi I wouldn't have bet on that at all Cincinnatti Notre Dame Louisville Oklahoma State UL Monroe Georgia Tech Florida State Everything else should have covered or won straight up, but on rivalry week it's really not time to make any bets because such odd things occur. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Why would you pick Oklahoma State? I mean there were a lot of teams you could've picked to beat OU this year, including Kansas, but OSU? They had no shot. Especially with Peterson being at full strength. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> 17.5 points is a lot of points to giving away for a team that had only had one win of that size all year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damaramu 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Oh he picked OSU to cover....not win. I don't gamble so I'm not familiar with the terminology and how it works. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
iggymcfly 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Yeah, actually OSU was getting 19 points. I just figured that because of their history against OU, they'd play them close and lose by 7 or something. They played Texas close in a similar situation, and I thought 19 was too much against OU. I actually knew that Pitt and GT weren't very good bets, and I made both of those on impulse at the last second. I bet on Pitt because it was Thanksgiving and I wanted some action so I'd have a reason to watch the late game, and with GT I bet the moneyline (+155) because I like Tech, I needed them in Bored's contest, and I figured they at least had a decent chance to beat Georgia. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damaramu 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Yeah but did you know AD was completely healthy and OSU has scored the least points of any Big XII team? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cabbageboy 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 I know U of L has beaten the shit out of people at home this year, but 36 is still too big of a line to play. If it was 26 it might be worth playing, though it'd have been a loss anyway. Hypothetically let's say U of L is ahead 55-13 in a total squash but Cuse scores a TD in the last minute and makes it 55-20. You don't cover though it's a total squash. Oddly enough the 41 U of L did put on them was the most Cuse has given up all year, so to cover it'd have to be 41-3 or something. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Urban Warfare 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 AP Poll: 1. USC (55) 11-0 2. Texas (10) 11-0 3. LSU 10-1 4. Penn State 10-1 5. Virginia Tech 10-1 6. Ohio State 9-2 7. Notre Dame 9-2 8. Oregon 10-1 9. Auburn 9-2 10. Miami 9-2 11. UCLA 9-1 12. West Virginia 9-1 13. Georgia 9-2 14. Alabama 9-2 15. TCU 10-1 16. Louisville 8-2 17. Florida 8-3 18. Texas Tech 9-2 19. Boston College 8-3 20. Michigan 7-4 21. Wisconsin 9-3 22. Clemson 7-4 23. Fresno State 8-3 24. Georgia Tech 7-4 25. Iowa 7-4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damaramu 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Hmmm.......ND is ranked higher than Oregon. Is Oregon really getting screwed? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 It wouldn't make any difference even if the rankings were flipped. Oregon is not getting into a BCS bowl no matter what happens now, since Notre Dame is BCS-eligible and they will never be passed over by the BCS bowls. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Due to the computer rankings Oregon is ranked higher than Notre Dame in the BCS. Coming into this week Notre Dame wasn't ranked in the Top 10 of any computer ranking. Again as I've mentioned before I'd be upset if Oregon had a healthy Kellen Clemens and was being left out. Without him they'd have a hard time beating Notre Dame or Penn State. I just wish the Pac-10 had a better bowl than the Holiday Bowl for it's second place team as Oregon does deserve better. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Yeah, that's one thing that's always bothered me about the bowl system and the Pac 10. They don't have any second-tier bowl affiliations on the level of a Gator Bowl or Cotton Bowl. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vern Gagne 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 They don't bring the fans like the other conferences do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vern Gagne 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 They don't bring the fans like the other conferences do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hogan Made Wrestling 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 It wouldn't make any difference even if the rankings were flipped. Oregon is not getting into a BCS bowl no matter what happens now, since Notre Dame is BCS-eligible and they will never be passed over by the BCS bowls. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Some of the bowl forecasters have Oregon going to the Fiesta Bowl over Ohio State. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 It wouldn't make any difference even if the rankings were flipped. Oregon is not getting into a BCS bowl no matter what happens now, since Notre Dame is BCS-eligible and they will never be passed over by the BCS bowls. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Some of the bowl forecasters have Oregon going to the Fiesta Bowl over Ohio State. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Really? That would surprise the hell out of me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Well there is still some reasonable doubt that the Orange Bowl will just hand a Notre Dame/Penn State match-up to the Fiesta Bowl. The only way I see Oregon getting in is if a scenerio plays out where the Fiesta Bowl does truly want Penn State more than Notre Dame AND it becomes evident that the Orange Bowl will take one of them instead of Ohio State. In that scenerio if the Fiesta takes Penn State first then the Orange Bowl ends up with Notre Dame obviously the Fiesta wouldn't do an all-Big Ten match-up. Not completely out of the realm of possibility although I'd think they'd rather settle for Notre Dame/Ohio State than Penn State/Oregon. There's also a theory floated that if the Fiesta would take Oregon because the stadium is home to a Pac-10 team in Arizona State and the entire conference benefits from a BCS payout. Not sure if I'd buy that though as the ASU has no influence on who gets picked to the Fiesta Bowl. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hogan Made Wrestling 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Bored gave a good synopsis of the possibilities there, and another factor that has been brought up is that if Ohio State does play in the Fiesta Bowl it would be their 3rd trip there in 4 years. Although I'm not sure if that is a negative (staleness factor) or a positive (proven record of bringing fans). Something that's improbable but not impossible would be Virginia Tech and LSU both losing their conference championship games, which might be enough to push Ohio State into the #4 position in the BCS and an automatic berth. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Something that's improbable but not impossible would be Virginia Tech and LSU both losing their conference championship games, which might be enough to push Ohio State into the #4 position in the BCS and an automatic berth. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I don't think there's any "might" about it. OSU would be a solid fourth in that case. But, I give Florida State about as much chance of beating Tech as I would give Temple. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damaramu 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Man Jeff Smardiza(or whatever it is) is really good. It's looking like he might win that award for WR of the year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted November 27, 2005 Man Jeff Smardiza(or whatever it is) is really good. It's looking like he might win that award for WR of the year. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I don't think there's any "might" about it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Leelee Report post Posted November 28, 2005 That Samardzija is supposedly a really good pitcher, also. I hope so, because I don't want him to be the token white starting WR in the league. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damaramu 0 Report post Posted November 28, 2005 So what was Kellen Clemens injury and what are the chances of him being back to face OU? So Oregon and OU play each other last year in Norman and OU pounds them. OU and Oregon will probably play in the Holiday Bowl and OU is likely to get pounded. Then they open the season against each other next season(i think) and that one is a toss up at this point. That's crazy.....OU vs. Oregon New Age Rivalry! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 28, 2005 Fractured ankle and zilch, his season is over. They play each other in Eugene in the 3rd week of the season next year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damaramu 0 Report post Posted November 28, 2005 Fractured ankle and zilch, his season is over. They play each other in Eugene in the 3rd week of the season next year. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Eeek.......what is with OU getting 2 Pac-10 teams on the schedule next year? Actually it's looking like there are no mid-majors on OU's OOC schedule. Ugh. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 28, 2005 Non-traditional BCS conference match-ups next year: Duke at Alabama Arizona at LSU Arizona State at Colorado USC at Arkansas Washington State at Auburn Baylor at Washington State California at Tennessee Minnesota at California Colorado at Georgia Notre Dame at Georgia Tech Illinois at Rutgers Connecticut at Indiana Iowa at Syracuse Miami at Louisville Michigan State at Pittsburgh Mississippi at Missouri Wake Forest at Mississippi West Virginia at Mississippi State Nebraska at USC Rutgers at North Carolina North Carolina at Notre Dame UCLA at Notre Dame Penn State at Notre Dame Ohio State at Texas Washington at Oklahoma Oklahoma at Oregon Virginia at Pittsburgh Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hogan Made Wrestling 0 Report post Posted November 28, 2005 California at Tennessee Minnesota at California Colorado at Georgia Notre Dame at Georgia Tech Miami at Louisville Nebraska at USC UCLA at Notre Dame Penn State at Notre Dame Ohio State at Texas Oklahoma at Oregon <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Those are all pretty interesting matchups. Did you forget about Oklahoma vs. Miami? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted November 28, 2005 All those great games, and Iowa goes and schedules a creampuff disguised as a name program. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
