2006 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

[Bored 0]

There IS a screening process. See my previous post with the list of guys who were eligible that were left off.

BBWAA Screening Committee — A Screening Committee consisting of baseball writers will be appointed by the BBWAA. This Screening Committee shall consist of six members, with two members to be elected at each Annual Meeting for a three-year term. The duty of the Screening Committee shall be to prepare a ballot listing in alphabetical order eligible candidates who (1) received a vote on a minimum of five percent (5%) of the ballots cast in the preceding election or (2) are eligible for the first time and are nominated by any two of the six members of the BBWAA Screening Committee.

[CanadianChris 0]

Hardly seems like there's much point to the screening committee.

 

I'd almost put Guzman on the ballot before DiSarcina.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Usually a player who plays ten seasons and makes an All-Star team makes a ballot. Sometimes there are some screwy decisions, but they hardly matter in the long run.

[Vern Gagne 0]

One Dog made an All-Star team.

[Guest OKCoyote]

I like Mattingly, Trammell, and Hershiser (though Bulldog would never make it in).

[Bored 0]

Ever wonder why HOF voting doesn't make a whole lot of sense? It's because you have idiots like this voting:

 

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05351/624041.stm

Collier: Voting for hall an art, not a science

Saturday, December 17, 2005

 

By Gene Collier, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

 

Completed ballots in baseball's annual Hall of Fame voting are due in New York by the end of the month, and having resolved to apportion more thought to the matter than I have the first 17 times I've voted, I extracted mine from the back of my bloody black backpack yesterday, intent on serious rumination.

 

Better part of an hour.

 

Yeah, I'm serious this time.

 

First thing I noticed about the 2006 Hall of Fame Ballot?

 

No Hall of Famers.

 

At least, well, all right, let me read it again.

 

Rick Aguilera's there; he's the reasonably accomplished reliever of whom Ralph Kiner once said on a Mets' broadcast, "All of Rick Aguilera's saves have come in relief."

 

Yeah. He should get into the Hall just for that.

 

In fact, let's just do it that way. Like the beleaguered Costanza, I will do the opposite of the way I've been doing this all along.

 

Will Clark is on the ballot. A fairly fearsome first baseman, Clark hit a home run in his first minor-league at-bat, and hit a home run in his first major-league at-bat, both times on the first swing.

 

He's in.

 

This is the complete diametric opposite of the way I used to do this. The old paradigm was, when I saw the player's name, if I had to think about it, he didn't get in. Hall of Famers, went the philosophy, are players whose very names terminate all debates of worthiness: Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mays, Clemente, etc., and next year Gwynn, Ripken and, of course, Derek Bell.

 

Yes, Derek Bell will be on the 2007 ballot, and the only solace in that is that if Derek Bell were elected to the Hall of Fame, Operation Shutdown would take on totally new implications.

 

Some essayists have fretted that the voters would pitch a shutout this year, with the 2006 lineup so unremarkable that no one will be inducted in July. This happened as recently as 1996, but that wasn't the only shutout I ever pitched. I've been pitching shutouts for years.

 

But eventually, this admittedly egocentric voting method -- it assumes a knowledge of the game that's susceptible to being eclipsed by arrogance -- began to fail, with such players as Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor getting to Cooperstown by acclamation without ever getting a vote from me.

 

Thus this epiphany that everyone should get some semblance of consideration, including Gary DiSarcina, a shortstop for the Angels I thought was a catcher for the Twins. He finished in the top 20 (actually 19th) in the MVP voting in 1995, which means he probably got one vote. Additionally, he hit .258.

 

Hmm, let's see. No.

 

Hal Morris is on the ballot, and he's the only hitter I've ever seen who would actually walk toward the pitch as it was coming in. Should I put him in the Hall strictly on that basis? Tough one.

 

For full disclosure, it's not as though I've never voted for someone who failed to be elected. I've voted for Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith, Andre Dawson and possibly Jack Morris, and all remain on the ballot today. The next logical step in my own repentance would be to vote for someone I've never voted for, and who is still eligible, which brings us to Bert Blyleven.

 

Aside from former Steeler Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala (whom ESPN's Chris Berman called Chris Fuamatu (I'm a bad) Ma'afala, Bert (Be Home) Blyleven has the best Berman nickname of all time. That's huge. He also pitched 60 shutouts, more than Hall of Famers Don Sutton, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Gaylord Perry and Jim Palmer.

 

The seamheads on crystal math are running Blyleven through the software along the lines of Jay Jaffe, who points out on the Baseball Prospectus site that: "Clay Davenport's Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) figures make an ideal tool for this endeavor because they normalize all performance records in major-league history to the same scoring environment, adjusting for park effects, quality of competition and length of schedule. All pitchers, hitters and fielders are thus rated above or below one consistent replacement level, making cross-era comparisons a breeze. Though non-statistical considerations -- championships, postseason performance -- shouldn't be left by the wayside in weighing a player's Hall of Fame credentials, they're not the focus."

 

Uh-huh.

 

Here's my formula. If I'm managing a decent club that's going into Pittsburgh for a weekend series in July of 1979 and the Pirates are sending Bert Blyleven, John Candelaria and Bruce Kison to the mound, is there a pitcher among them that I think I might not be able to beat?

 

Yes, and it's Candelaria, who is not a Hall of Famer.

 

Blyleven was a very good pitcher for a long time, but he had only one 20-win season and lost 250 games.

 

In all seriousness, I'm voting for Sutter, who got 67 percent of the votes last year (75 percent gets you in); for Smith, whose 478 career saves are 178 more than Sutter's; and for Dawson, the elegant, knee-damaged outfielder who is the answer to that rare question, "Who is the only player other than Willie Mays, Bobby Bonds and Barry Bonds to hit more than 300 homers and steal more than 300 bases?"

 

I'm also enclosing a suggestion that any Hall of Fame inductee who raises a fuss over which hat he wears on his plaque should be depicted in a fez, a sombrero or if he's really a pain, fuzzy reindeer antlers.

 

Because I'm serious this time.

[The Czech Republic 0]

bloody black backpack

Stroke 9?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

In all seriousness, I'm voting for Sutter, who got 67 percent of the votes last year (75 percent gets you in); for Smith, whose 478 career saves are 178 more than Sutter's; and for Dawson, the elegant, knee-damaged outfielder who is the answer to that rare question, "Who is the only player other than Willie Mays, Bobby Bonds and Barry Bonds to hit more than 300 homers and steal more than 300 bases?"

 

As opposed to voting for the only player other than Nolan Ryan to win 280 games, strike out 3,700 batters, and pitch 60 shutouts.

 

Here's my formula. If I'm managing a decent club that's going into Pittsburgh for a weekend series in July of 1979 and the Pirates are sending Bert Blyleven, John Candelaria and Bruce Kison to the mound, is there a pitcher among them that I think I might not be able to beat?

 

Yes, and it's Candelaria, who is not a Hall of Famer.

 

The problem with this logic is that Chuck Tanner decided he'd rather have Blyleven pitch the majority of his games, 37 starts compared to no more than 30 for any other pitcher. And of course, there is the nagging problem that Blyleven had the best win/loss percentage on the staff. Of course it really doesn't matter who you think you're going to beat on that staff, because you're going to end up against Kent Tekulve anyway.

 

In fairness though, we see now that Blyleven had a more impressive career. Blyleven won 115 games after he turned 30, compared to 67 for Candelaria. But John Candelaria from 1975-79 went 70-38. A young pitcher with that kind of record on a championship team is going to get some recognition. And obviously Collier's going to remember the Pittsburgh years.

 

The problem is writers who prefer to judge Hall of Fame worthiness based on their memories. Writers have not seen every game from every player. And if statistics make you queasy, instead of poo-pooing most candidates and cherry picking statistics, make some phone calls. Ask former players who was tougher to hit. All of these writers who say Blyleven wasn't dominant never actually stood in a batters' box and hit against him.

 

My case for Blyleven is simple. 13th among post-dead ball pitchers in wins. 5th in strikeouts. 4th among post-dead ball pitchers in shutouts. Eight of ten most similar pitchers in the Hall. Compare him with Nolan Ryan. Blyleven wasn't "dominant," while there is not a writer who would not use that term for Ryan. The dominant Ryan, in 88 more career starts, posted exactly ONE more shutout than Blyleven.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Announcement is tomorrow at 1pm ET. MLB.com's carrying it live.

[Bored 0]

No so bold prediction: Bruce Sutter will receive the most votes but will not get the required 75% to get enshrined which will be the first time since 1996 that the writers didn't elect anyone. Then everyone on the list can forget about next year with Gwynn and Ripken going in (McGwire probably won't get in on the first ballot because of the steroid controversy).

[Vern Gagne 0]

With the probabability of former negro leaguers being voted in. That's possible. I did read today, that since 1968. Of the 28 second place finishers who failed to reach the needed 75%. 25 eventually where eventually elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

[bob_barron 0]

Sutter is in.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Sutter is in and, if I read the numbers correctly, Jim Rice pulled more ballots than Gossage. Oy vey.

[The Czech Republic 0]

Gossage ain't neva gettin' in

[Bored 0]

Gossage would have gotten in over Sutter if he had THE SPLITFINGER FASTBALL!!!!

 

God I hate baseball writers. Oh and they decided he'll go in with the Cardinals cap over the Cubs. I'm assuming the logic was soley because he won a World Series with them.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Sure he will. This was only his seventh time on the ballot, and he's up to 64.6%.

[sfaJack 0]

Anybody hear one writer (forget his name) on the Dan Patrick show today trying to defend his voting process? he says he doesn't vote for ten guys each year because "it's supposed to be an exclusive club." While I agree with that to a point, his logic was ridiculous. Gossage was on at the same time and every question Gossage asked the guy, he had no answer for. It was hilarious.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Jim Rice is probably the most overrated player on the ballot. Jim Rice received 337 votes, while Will Clark received 23. If you really study the players, Clark was a better player. Jim Rice was one dimensional, and the most prolific double play victim of his time.

 

Too many baseball writers fall prey to glamourous counting stats, like home runs, RBIs and saves. To suggest that Bruce Sutter was a better pitcher than Bert Blyleven, or even Jack Morris or Tommy John, is madness.

[Guest Princess Leena]

Al, you should try to be a HOF voter.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I don't have a prayer. The requirement is that you need to be a BBWAA member for ten years. Rob Neyer doesn't even have a vote.

 

I do find it slightly amusing that the MVP and Cy Young votes are far more exclusive than the HOF balloting.

[Guest Princess Leena]

HOF voting needs to be more exclusive, then.

 

I don't understand why they make it so complicated. Just vote for who you think should be in. This 1st ballot stuff is ridiculous.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Too many baseball writers fall prey to glamourous counting stats, like home runs, RBIs and saves. To suggest that Bruce Sutter was a better pitcher than Bert Blyleven, or even Jack Morris or Tommy John, is madness.

 

It's Apples to Oranges. In my opinion. Sutter was great at what he did. Finishing games. Blyleven, Morris, and John were outstanding starting pitchers. Rob Neyer wrote an article about setting standards for closers when it comes to the HOF. I think that's only fair, since the closer is an important part of the game.

 

After yesterdays voting.

 

Locks-Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson, Jim Rice

A Good Shot at Getting In-Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith

Darkhorse-Jack Morris

 

What cap is Bruce Sutter wearing?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I've been working on some data regarding relief pitchers. There are various marks of pitching excellence, but I think we can all agree that the relievers who deserve the Hall are the ones who distanced themselves from the pack. The easiest way to find an undeserving candidate is to find a boatload of similar players.

 

When you look at the candidates, Bruce Sutter had an ERA+ of 136, while Gossage's mark was 126 (in nearly twice as many innings). Those would be very impressive marks for starters. But look at today's crop of closers. Mariano Rivera (197), Billy Wagner (180), Trevor Hoffman (146), John Franco (137), and even Troy Percival (150). Are all of these pitchers better than Gossage or Sutter? Certainly not. The problem is that performance varies along with usage patterns. Any pitcher is more likely to get shelled the longer he stays in a game, as he tires.

 

To say that Gossage and Sutter logged many, many three inning saves is an overstatement. But both pitched over an inning and a half per game over the course of their careers. That is a significant factor to consider.

 

Power pitchers have a distinct advantage in the voting. Dan Quisenberry was every bit as effective as Bruce Sutter. Kent Tekulve's numbers equal Lee Smith's in many aspects. Doug Jones is fairly close to Lee Smith as well. The problem is that these types of pitchers are ignored. Dan Quisenberry only walked batters at gunpoint. Kent Tekulve gave up less home runs than practically any pitcher in baseball history. They may not have seemed "dominant," but they were sure as hell hard to score runs off.

 

A relief pitcher has to dominate for an extended period of time. All-Star appearances may help to separate the pack. Gossage made nine All-Star teams, more than any other reliever. Mariano Rivera has made seven All-Star games, which certainly distinguishes him from the rest of today's closers. I think HOF voters need to take a broader approach to the issue. The saves record is still in the process of being written.

 

As a side note, the pitching skill of Hoyt Wilhelm really comes into focus here. Wilhelm was a career reliever and a knuckleballer, and in 1985 became the first reliever inducted into the Hall. Wilhelm pitched more innings in relief in baseball history, pitched over two innings a game, and still tops the list as far as both ERA+ and raw ERA, among the retired relievers I used.

[The Czech Republic 0]

What cap is Bruce Sutter wearing?

 

they decided he'll go in with the Cardinals cap over the Cubs.

Lame. I wanted another player in as a Cub, of course.

[Vern Gagne 0]

I was hoping Sutter would still have the big puffy hair.

[Guest]

The guys on this list that I would vote in are, in order:

 

Andre Dawson, Goose Gossage, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris and Will Clark. I'm stunned that Clark only recieved 23 votes.

[Bored 0]

Just for the hell of it here's the Win Shares for those who are eligible for next year.

 

1. Cal Ripken 427

2. Tony Gwynn 398

3. Mark McGwire 342

4. Harold Baines 307

5. Tony Fernandez 280

6. Jose Canseco 272

7. Bobby Bonilla 267

8. Paul O'Neill 259

9. Wally Joyner 253

10. Ken Caminiti 242

11. Eric Davis 224

12. Devon White 207

13. Bret Saberhagen 193

14. Jay Buhner 174

15. Dante Bichette 168

16. Stan Javier 137

17. Daryl Hamilton 130

18. Kevin Tapani 124

19. Charlie Hayes 116

20. Ken Hill 112

21. Derek Bell 111

22. Ramon Martinez 110

23. Bobby Witt 102

24. Pete Harnisch 100

25t. Glenallen Hill 99

25t. Gregg Olson 99

27. Jeff Shaw 97

28. Jeff Brantley 88

[snuffbox 0]

Are any of these voters embarassed at how stupid it looks that a guy isn't hall of fame material for 12 years...but on the 13th year of eligibility - WOOOO! Hell of a guy!

[CanadianChris 0]

How about a Keltner list for Tony Fernandez, Al?

 

Oh, and the baseball writers are morons. But then, I've said that every year Goose hasn't gotten in.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

25t. Gregg Olson 99

 

Sweet. Maybe if he gets in his rookie card will go up in value.

 

To 5 cents.