College Hoops 2/27/2006 - 03/12/2006

[SilverPhoenix 0]

Well folks this is it. It's been a great regular season so far, to say the least, but all good things come to a end, and so must this College Hoops Season. The next 2 weeks are where March Madness will take its true form, and where see teams either rise to the occasion, or fall to the wayside. As they say...Now is the time to take center stage and make your name known.

 

This week is the final week of the regular season (escpecially for the major conferences). With many teams still needing quality victories, this week is very important as teams like Arizona, Syracuse, Kentucky, Arkansas and UAB have dates with destiny that may either get them into the dance or get them a spot in the NIT.

 

Next week is Championship Week (though it effectively begins this week for many mid majors) where 31 Conference Championships will be decided. Each of these teams gets an automatic bid into the dance, and for some conferences, how you do in this setting may help you make the Big Dance. So each game in that week is so important that it is insane.

 

With that said. Let the final Regular Season thread commence.

[Guest Princess Leena]

Pitt vs. WVU tonight. Yuck. Conference tournies begin on Tuesday. Yay.

[therealworldschampion 0]

Syracuse probably needs one more win, which they'll probably get against DePaul to get to 20 wins. That and a win in New York next week probably locks up an at-large berth for them. If they beat DePaul and beat Villanova in their last game, they're definitely in.

[cabbageboy 0]

I think UAB will definitely get in. If they pull off the win over Memphis this week then they are definitely in, but the committee probably won't want to have CUSA as a mere 1 bid league. Also, even though they aren't supposed to look at past tourney success, UAB will get in due to the past couple of years beating UK, LSU, and so on.

[Guest Princess Leena]

It surprises me that UAB is at best a bubble team to most people. They have the gaudy record. They played quality competition OOC. Even if they lose again to Memphis, I think they deserve a bid as long as they don't lose their last 3.

[SilverPhoenix 0]

I think UAB will definitely get in. If they pull off the win over Memphis this week then they are definitely in, but the committee probably won't want to have CUSA as a mere 1 bid league. Also, even though they aren't supposed to look at past tourney success, UAB will get in due to the past couple of years beating UK, LSU, and so on.

 

As much as I would love UAB to be in this tournament, it's not looking good for them at this point if you go by the numbers. Which look like these (and no, I'm not using the Sagarins, because come March 12th, they take a back seat to the RPI, even with all of its flaws.)

 

Record (Includes Division I Competition only for wins): 19 - 5

Conference Record: 10 -2

OOC Record 9 - 3

Last 10 Games: 8 - 2

 

RPI (Official NCAA RPI/Warren Nolan RPI/ESPN RPI/Real Time RPI): 53/52/52/52

Conference RPI (Warren Nolan/Real Time RPI): 14/16

Overall SOS (Warren Nolan/ESPN/Real Time): 169/192/236

OOC SOS (ESPN): 179

 

Record Broken Down by RPI:

1 - 25: 0 - 1

26 - 50: 0 - 1

51 - 100: 5 - 3

101 - 200: 3 - 0

200+: 11 - 0

 

UABs biggest factor going aganist it is its RPI and SOS numbers. They are beyond the point of no return in the RPI which is 50, which is very bad number for any team looking for an at large bid, escpecially a Conference that is beyond 12 (the unofficial cutoff between one bid and multiple bid conferences).

 

What is hurting UAB especially is Conference USA. If this were last year. UAB would be propped up by a stronger conference and a much better schedule. However, CUSA is nothing like it was last year. Gone are the Bearcats, gone are the Cardnials, gone are the Warriors/Golden Eagles and gone are the 49ers. What you get in their place are the Owls, the Mustangs, the Thundering Herd and the Golden Hurricane. What would be single and double digit RPI numbers are replaced by 212, 269, 225 and 196. After UTEP which is at 66 the highest ranking team is Tulsa is 196 which is 130 spots lower. 8 Teams in the conference or among the worst 140 Teams in College Basketball according to the RPI.

 

For UAB to have any kind of security on Selection Sunday, the Memphis game at their home court is the hugest game of the year for them. This is UAB's last chance to distinguish itself and lock itself into a bid for the tournament. If it loses, than UAB has to reach the final to have any chance to make the tournament. Losing to anyone before that doesn't help their chances.

 

And don't expect the committee to give this conference any pity and give UAB a pity bid to the tournament. They were far too quick to screw Louisville over seeding wise. They wouldn't give a second thought to leaving UAB out.

[naiwf 0]

Oklahoma St. just got hosed by the referees there since the guy walked before he was "fouled". You can't call that with 0.6 seconds left on the clock.

[Guest Brian]

That call just screamed refs creating drama.

[Damaramu 0]

OSU got screwed. That's 4 games in a row that OU has won by 1 point and the second game in a row the refs helped them.

Sean Sutton put it as diplomatically as he could after the game. He basically tried not to blow up by saying "well i won't say anything until i see the tape" but he was biting his bottom lip and trying not to yell and he was sweating.

[Guest]

This college season is really bothering me. Only one true power conference, and one really good team in most of the other conferences. ACC=Duke, Big 10=Illinois, maybe Michigan State, Big 12=Texas, Conf USA=Memphis, Pac 10 ain't got shit, SEC=Florida, WCC=Gonzaga. I'm sorry, but that's not interesting.

[iggymcfly 0]

This college season is really bothering me. Only one true power conference, and one really good team in most of the other conferences. ACC=Duke, Big 10=Illinois, maybe Michigan State, Big 12=Texas, Conf USA=Memphis, Pac 10 ain't got shit, SEC=Florida, WCC=Gonzaga. I'm sorry, but that's not interesting.

 

Apparently, you haven't been paying that much attention. Tennessee's way better than Florida, and Ohio State's the best team in the Big Ten. Michigan State's not even close to them at this point. I'll agree that the Big East has been pretty dominant this season, but there's still lots of good basketball out there if you know where to look.

[Guest]

Ohio State never gets recognition from me in anything. I'm anti-them. I also don't know if Tennessee is that much better than Florida, if at all. The SEC is a hunk of garbage, or bubbles if you prefer.

[SilverPhoenix 0]

It depends on how you look at it though. This year there are no truly "really great, this team is going to the Final 4" teams this year. What you have in their places are

 

- 3 really good teams that have the best shot at winning the national title (Duke, Villanova and UConn)

 

- About 9 very good teams that have a great shot at getting to the Final 4 depending on the night the team is having (Texas, Gonzaga, Illinois, Ohio State, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Memphis, George Washington and a few others that could rise up to this level by March 12th (NC or NC State in particular) )

 

However even these 12 teams are not unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination. Each one of these teams has their flaws and shortcomings that can result in an early exit. Each of these teams are beatable, and have shown stretches of extreme vulnerability.

 

What you have below that are a bunch of good, capable teams (and quite a few of these in the Mid Majors) that can compete with almost anyone on any night, and that can do damage in the tournament. One thing is for sure...don't expect the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and possibly the Final 4 to have all the usual suspects. Someone out of left field is going to crash the party.

[cabbageboy 0]

I don't know if the Big 10 has a truly great team in it. The whole league seems like a bunch of 3-4 seeds to me. Hell, if Michigan St. loses out they might make things very interesting for themselves, though I bet they at least finish 8-8 in league. Either way I don't think the Big 10 winner would even get a top 4 bye in the Big East.

 

Right now in the SEC it is LSU that is winning the conf. I personally don't think they are any good really, mostly getting by in narrow wins against mediocre teams to pad that SEC record to 13-2. I'd look for them to almost certainly be a 1st/2nd round upset.

[Guest]

All the "crashing the party teams" make me not like this season. If either Duke, Nova or UConn don't make the Final Four, it'll be a boring end to the tourney. Gonzaga and probably Texas are the ones that could make me care, just because I'd like to see the mid-major darling get in and Texas have a chance to win titles in both money sports. I like it when there's a certain top 5 and everyone else has to take their shot at them.

[teke184 0]

I don't know if the Big 10 has a truly great team in it. The whole league seems like a bunch of 3-4 seeds to me. Hell, if Michigan St. loses out they might make things very interesting for themselves, though I bet they at least finish 8-8 in league. Either way I don't think the Big 10 winner would even get a top 4 bye in the Big East.

 

Right now in the SEC it is LSU that is winning the conf. I personally don't think they are any good really, mostly getting by in narrow wins against mediocre teams to pad that SEC record to 13-2. I'd look for them to almost certainly be a 1st/2nd round upset.

 

 

LSU plays *everyone* close, with the exception of Tennessee and West Virginia, who they knocked the shit out of.

 

 

They only lost to UConn by 1, Ohio State by about 5, etc. Their only "bad" loss this year is by 9 to Florida.

[SilverPhoenix 0]

Well, and now it is time for SilverPhoenix's first "Tournament" Field Model. Up until the tournament I will be updating at these intervals.

 

3/01: First Update

3/05

3/07

From 3/08 I will be updating daily with my final 65 teams revealed about 1 Hour or so before the selection show.

 

With that said. Lets get started.

 

First We're going to deal with the Teams that are already in the tournament and have an at large bid in the mail. These teams have nothing left to prove and even if they've won their last game they are in the tournament. In a word, Bulletproof.

 

Bulletproof/Locks (in Conference Alphabetical Order) (27)

ACC: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, NC State

Atlantic 10: George Washington*

Big East: UConn, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia

Big Ten: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Big 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas

Conference USA: Memphis*

Missouri Valley: Wichita State

Pacific 10: UCLA, Washington

SEC: Florida, Tennesee, LSU

WCC: Gonzaga*

WAC: Nevada*

 

Now we are going to deal with the 15 leauges that are going to get only one team in no matter what happens in their conference tournaments. In other words some one seeds will be heading to the NIT.

 

America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-American, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland and the SWAC.

 

So this means 42 bids are already spoken for with 23 being fought for. Now we deal with the teams on the bubble, and not all bubbles are created equal, in fact there 5 levels of bubble for this prediction model and they go from S - D

 

(Note: 26 Leauges that have bulletproof reps, or tourney or bust (one bid). The leauges with the Asteriks along with 5 other leauges are X-Factor Leauges that have the potential to eat up bids should their 1 seeds lose in the conference tournament. Should they lose, the C and D-Listers will be greatly affected. As of now those that are in X-Factor Leauges and are 1 Seeds are B-Listers and above and will either rise or fall with performance. The Leauges are as follows...

 

Atlantic 10

Colonial

Conference USA

Horizon

Mountain West

Sun Belt

Patriot Leauge

WCC

WAC

 

These are the leauges that may burst the bubble of others. And may be the ones who are in true control of the tournament field)

 

 

S List: Near-Bulletproof. Barring a major disaster loss to someone in the bottom 100 of the RPI, or the team dropping dead, these teams are in by proxy. Usually they need to win one more game to move from the S-List to the Bulletproof one.

 

A List: Teams that are most likely going to get a bid and usually needs one or two more winnable games to jump the S-List into the Bulletproof List. What seperates them from the S List is a bad loss, a lower RPI or/and SOS, their record or their last 10 game record. Barring pulling a Maryland or Norte Dame last year, they're in

 

B List: Teams that have a little bit more work to do as far getting a bid is concerned. These are usually solid teams that need a couple more wins or others to fall to secure their place in the bracket. These teams are in complete control of destines, and it is up to them to seize the moment.

 

C List: The edge of the overall bubble. Just above the danger zone. This level of the bubble is basically your last 4 - 5 Teams in at this point. There is no security here, you have to win to move up, losing can mean a fall beyond the D-List into the NIT. And even then you don't control your own destiny. The X-Factor leagues may cause bubbles to be burst.

 

D List: The point of no return on the Bubble. These teams are on the edge of the bubble just waiting for it to burst. These are teams that as of now are out of the tournament and have next to no margin of error should they want to make the tournament, they have to go on a run and lose in their respective championship games or win outright.

 

With all of that explained lets begin forming the bubble.

 

S-List/Near Bulletproof

Michigan

Creighton

George Mason

Bucknell

Northern Iowa

 

A-List/In Barring Nuclear Fallout

Syracuse

Cincinatti

Arizona

Alabama (As much as it pains me)

Coloroado

Indiana (Michgan State win did wonders)

Missouri State

 

B-List/Control of their own Destiny

Arkansas

California

Seton Hall

Bradley

Western Kentucky

Wisconsin-Milwaukee

San Diego State

 

C-List/Danger Zone/Final Four teams in

Southern Illinois

Kentucky

UNC Willimington

Missouri State

 

D-List/Point of no Return/Work to do/Pray

Hofstra (Has gotta make it as far or further than UNCW. If the Final is between them...It may be a total elimination game)

Utah State (Got to win its final 2 Games and make it to the Final WAC Tournament)

Air Force (Has to finish strong or win outright)

Maryland (Has to find a way to win 3 - 5 games in the next 11 Days)

UAB (Needs to win at Memphis or it's most likely going to have to win the CUSA Tournament at Memphis)

Houston (Pray)

Florida State (gotta beat Duke)

Texas A & M (Needs to make a run and now)

Louisville (Has to make the tournament and make a run to the Big East Championship Game)

 

And that is the conclusion of this outlook. Comments, Questions and Death Threats welcome.

[Guest Princess Leena]

I plan on doing some bracket columns once most of the mid-major tournies are done, so that should be fun.

 

Some I disagree with...

 

Kentucky is sadly, probably in already. Even if they lose tonight, and to Florida. Unless they lose to Miss. St, or whatever in the 1st round of the SEC tourney... I don't see them being out. I'd say Vandy is more of a bubble team... if they beat Tennessee, they're probably in.

 

I still think Bucknell has to win their conference tourney to get in. A home loss against any Patriot team to end the season would be a huge check mark. All they have to combat that is a win against mediocre Syracuse, and at least we played Duke and 'Nova. The committee has shown they're not going to take teams that rack up wins over much lesser competition, without any big performances.

[SilverPhoenix 0]

I plan on doing some bracket columns once most of the mid-major tournies are done, so that should be fun.

 

Some I disagree with...

 

Kentucky is sadly, probably in already. Even if they lose tonight, and to Florida. Unless they lose to Miss. St, or whatever in the 1st round of the SEC tourney... I don't see them being out. I'd say Vandy is more of a bubble team... if they beat Tennessee, they're probably in.

 

I still think Bucknell has to win their conference tourney to get in. A home loss against any Patriot team to end the season would be a huge check mark. All they have to combat that is a win against mediocre Syracuse, and at least we played Duke and 'Nova. The committee has shown they're not going to take teams that rack up wins over much lesser competition, without any big performances.

 

Vandy I disagree with being a bubble team. To their credit, they do have 5 Wins aganist the Top 100 RPI and have a Top 40 Overall SOS. However they have numbers that affect them negativily. Their Out of Conference SOS is in the 180s, they have 8 losses in the top 100 RPI to go aganist their 5 wins and have two bad losses in Georgia Tech and Georga, they're not likely to finish with a winning record, and their RPI is above 60. Those things do not bode well.

 

In fact I'll be honest here too...I don't think California should get in either. But everyone is determined to shoe horn them in. In fact on Sunday when i do this again. They're going to be major explanations as to why I placed who where on my list. Cause Cali shouldn't be in this if I'm projecting UAB to be out unless they beat Memphis.

 

I do agree with Kentucky, but they're on my C-List for a reason...they don't deserve it right now. And Bucknell, I think they just need to get to the final of their Conference tournament, but I do see your point...The tournament is their backyard the whole damn time.....You really can't justify them losing at all.

[cabbageboy 0]

Teke, I thought LSU beat WVU in OT by like 1 point? Anyway my point is that no one should ever base their bracket on having "Random SEC champion that isn't UK" going very far.

 

I've been burned by the SEC too many times to put FL, TN, or LSU very far on my bracket.

[teke184 0]

Penciling in an SEC team depends on the bracket involved.

 

Some "Brackets Of Death:" happen to be ones where an SEC team falls, but it's just as often overrated teams from other non-ACC non-Big Ten conferences.

 

 

 

 

 

Example-

 

St. John's, the #2 seed in LSU's bracket in 2000, lost in the opening round. #3 Oklahoma and #1 Arizona lost in the 2nd round to Purdue and Wisconsin respectively.

 

If John Brady hadn't had a total brainfart when it came to "BadgerBall" in 2000, #4 LSU could have gone to the Final Four.

 

Then again, EVERYONE had a brainfart against "BadgerBall" until they faced eventual champion Michigan State in the Final Four.

[Gert T 0]

Cincinnati's loss last night to Seton Hall was brutal to their chances. I still think they'll get in but they may need to win some games in NYC now.

[SilverPhoenix 0]

I'm guessing someone sent Florida State my memo, cause they're tied with Duke 72 all with 1:17 left.

[Damaramu 0]

Duke may lose! YES!

[mike546 0]

Whoo! Duke loses!

[Damaramu 0]

But there was still 1.7 seconds left!!! Duke could still win! Those fans screwed Duke!

[SilverPhoenix 0]

They rushed the court before the game is over. Coack K is pissed off!

[Damaramu 0]

They just T'd FSU up.

[Damaramu 0]

The Duke players are escaping now.

[Hawk 34 0]

Those fans, are idiots. Typical Florida State.