2007 Spring Training: The Thread

[Guest Queen Leelee]

I remember rumors of Broxton to BOS last year. Please don't.

 

Alan, what's wrong with BPro?

[Guest]

Broxton and Penny for Manny, lolz.

[vivalaultra 0]

I hear BK Kim's available again. Maybe the Sawx should trade for him and let him close. That wouldn't suck as much as some of their internal options.

 

Hunter Pence has looked great so far this spring, both in stats and in all other aspects of the game. As good as he looks though, he still should start at AAA. The 'Stros can keep his rights for a year and he'll be able to come up when Jason Lane bombs. The fans won't like it much, owing to his sexy numbers, but it's the sensible move.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I remember rumors of Broxton to BOS last year. Please don't.

 

Alan, what's wrong with BPro?

They are knowledgeable and informative. All to often however, their writing is arrogant and they come off as smarmy know-it-alls who can't believe the utter stupidity of the baseball world they cover. When they create a statistic, they assume its findings are 100% accurate even when the stats are suspect (i.e. their putting monetary value on wins and assigning that to player value).

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Brian Roberts got a sweet 2 year $14 million dollar contract extension..I almost wanna say thats grossly overpaying...but I like Roberts and didnt wanna see him go so I wont complain.

 

Os lost again though..bleh.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

It's safe to say the O's are doomed now.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I remember rumors of Broxton to BOS last year. Please don't.

 

Alan, what's wrong with BPro?

They are knowledgeable and informative. All to often however, their writing is arrogant and they come off as smarmy know-it-alls who can't believe the utter stupidity of the baseball world they cover. When they create a statistic, they assume its findings are 100% accurate even when the stats are suspect (i.e. their putting monetary value on wins and assigning that to player value).

 

They can be a little snarky with their analysis, but I've sort of accepted it as their style. It makes for interesting writing. And with the exception of Joe Sheehan, none of the other columnists really act like know-it-alls. Sabermetricians as a whole have seemed to develop an attitude and it mostly stems from the baseball media being condescending towards their work.

 

As for accepting their models and statistics as truth, it's the nature of the beast. Their website and book are sold on the predication that their proprietary information is the truth. I think they are becoming more accepting of the their faults, as there are numerous places in this year's book where they disagree wholeheartedly with PECOTA or out and out slam Davenport's defensive translations. The hiring of Kevin Goldstein to run the prospect side of things only reinforces the notion that their numbers can only take you so far.

[geniusMoment 0]

Sweet Lou just announced that Prior is no longer in consideration for a rotation spot, it's now between Guzman and Miller. Prior is pitching in a minor league game on Friday, there are rumors he might be released or sent outright to AAA.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Sweet Lou just announced that Prior is no longer in consideration for a rotation spot, it's now between Guzman and Miller. Prior is pitching in a minor league game on Friday, there are rumors he might be released or sent outright to AAA.

 

He can't be sent to AAA without clearing waivers first, can he? Isn't he out of options? Sounds like his days as a Cub are over.

[Brett Favre 0]

I hope the Yankees pick him up. I know he only touches like 86 on the radar gun, but he's still pretty young and I doubt he's fully recovered.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Brian Roberts got a sweet 2 year $14 million dollar contract extension..I almost wanna say thats grossly overpaying...but I like Roberts and didnt wanna see him go so I wont complain.

 

Os lost again though..bleh.

That's a perfectly acceptable contract in this age.

[Guest]

I hope the Yankees pick him up. I know he only touches like 86 on the radar gun, but he's still pretty young and I doubt he's fully recovered.

Same here. Prior needs to come home to Los Angeles.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Brian Roberts got a sweet 2 year $14 million dollar contract extension..I almost wanna say thats grossly overpaying...but I like Roberts and didnt wanna see him go so I wont complain.

 

Os lost again though..bleh.

That's a perfectly acceptable contract in this age.

 

Its acceptable but I still think its borderline too much. Hes barely maybe a top 10 2b. Hes good defensively and he can steal bases. The power in his bat in 2005 was an anomally..

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Brian Roberts got a sweet 2 year $14 million dollar contract extension..I almost wanna say thats grossly overpaying...but I like Roberts and didnt wanna see him go so I wont complain.

 

Os lost again though..bleh.

That's a perfectly acceptable contract in this age.

 

Its acceptable but I still think its borderline too much. Hes barely maybe a top 10 2b. Hes good defensively and he can steal bases. The power in his bat in 2005 was an anomally..

 

Looking at VORP, Brian Roberts was the best overall 2B in 2005, and was 6th last year, but was only a run worse than Dan Uggla and Jeff Kent, both of whom are looking at regressions in the near future. The only 2B I would definitely place ahead of him is Chase Utley, and maybe Robinson Cano if I'm feeling generous. Name me ten 2Bs that are better.

[Guest]

If Marv's speaking strictly in terms of his getting on base, I have to agree with part of what he says. Yeah, it's too much money, but who isn't getting paid that kind of money nowadays.

 

Fact is, 2nd base is a weak position with some turnover from year to year. It's nice to have a guy that you know will hold the spot. Plus, it's not a long-term thing, so if he regresses they can let him walk.

[geniusMoment 0]

I think Brandon Phillips has the potential to be better. He's put on some muscle, and so far this spring has really been hitting well.

[Guest]

Bowie Kuhn is dead.

 

RIP

[Brett Favre 0]

Looking at VORP, Brian Roberts was the best overall 2B in 2005, and was 6th last year, but was only a run worse than Dan Uggla and Jeff Kent, both of whom are looking at regressions in the near future. The only 2B I would definitely place ahead of him is Chase Utley, and maybe Robinson Cano if I'm feeling generous. Name me ten 2Bs that are better.

 

There's no doubt that Cano is better. He may not walk much, but his slugging was over .500. Nearly the same OPS as Utley, and Utley played in a hitter's park. Robinson Cano has the potential to be the best hitter on the team.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Boston needs a closer? Hello, he's in your starting rotation.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Boston needs a closer? Hello, he's in your starting rotation.

 

Except for the company line is that he can't close because of a degenerative shoulder condition that prevents him from working on short rest. As of today, he is not even being considered as an option to close. Besides, if he's a quality starter he's more valuable pitching 200 innings a year than 60 out of the bullpen, especially when used in a rigid pattern (i.e. as a closer).

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

I think the value of the closer is hideously undervalued by the internet community/bloggers/statheads. You can't oversimplify everything - Boston has been searching for a quality 9th inning pitcher for a very long time (other than one season of Foulke - and look at how far that got them), and now one has fallen into their laps and they've decided to f with it. I can see them going with some garbage retread as the closer this year as usual, and when the pen blows 10 or more saves this year and loses the division again, it won't be too hard to see why.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I don't think the closer role is undervalued at all by statheads. In fact, it is probably more undervalued by actual baseball managers. A relief ace is possibly the most important member of the pitching staff, provided they work in situations where their skills are needed. The problem is most guys get defined as "closers" pitching one inning in save situations instead of the true high leverage situations. That's a terrible use of a good pitcher.

 

Boston supposedly had closer problems in 2003 and 2005 and they still made the playoffs. Last year we had the best closer in the game and didn't sniff the playoffs. Detroit got by with Todd f'n Jones as their closer. St. Louis won a World Series with a late season stop-gap rookie. Not every team has a Rivera or Nathan. Bullpens are a crapshoot. I'd rather get a good, long career out of Papelbon than blow out his arm tyring to get saves.

[Brett Favre 0]

Todd Jones got the job done though, and they did have Zumaya and Rodney backing him up. Looking at the playoff teams, each team had a good closer.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

If the Sox can go year to year with different closers... does that really mean not having a closer to enter the season is going to make or break them? They can always trade for a closer or wait for somebody to grab the role as the season goes on.

 

2002: Ugueth Urbina has 40 Saves (3.00 ERA). Sox miss the playoffs but finish 93-69.

2003: Byung-Hyung Kim has 16 Saves (3.18 ERA). Sox lose ALCS in 7 games. Lyon had 9 saves with a 4.12 ERA and only one other player had 3 saves or more (Chad Fox).

2004: Keith Foulke has 32 Saves (2.17 ERA). Sox win WS in 4 games.

2005: Foulke and Timlin combine for 28 Saves. Sox lose ALDS in 3 games. To note, Timlin had a 2.24 ERA on the season.

2006: Papelbon has 35 Saves (0.92 ERA). Sox miss the playoffs but finish 86-76.

 

I'd rather take the "risk" of turning a stud closer into a SP (see also Derek Lowe) and going bullpen by committee until a closer emerges rather than trying to find a bonafide closer and keeping a guy who could be a very valuable #3 SP in that role just because there's no better option at the time.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think the value of the closer is hideously undervalued by the internet community/bloggers/statheads. You can't oversimplify everything - Boston has been searching for a quality 9th inning pitcher for a very long time (other than one season of Foulke - and look at how far that got them), and now one has fallen into their laps and they've decided to f with it. I can see them going with some garbage retread as the closer this year as usual, and when the pen blows 10 or more saves this year and loses the division again, it won't be too hard to see why.

I can not speak for the entire community, but here is my view. The lack of a quality closer can seriously hinder a team. If a team has Joe Scrub in the closers' role, they will lose a few games. The same is true of a team that lacks a quality second baseman, a quality right fielder, etc. You can not expect to compete with a black hole in your team. That said, the idea of the "proven" closer is what is overrated. Every year three or four closers emerge in baseball, guys who can get the job done but do not yet have the credentials. If a team can identify a closer rather than overpay for one, that provides a huge advantage. Last year the Sox did just that. Maybe Manny Delcarmen does the job this year. Or Joel Pineiro, or Devern Hansack.

 

As for Jon Papelbon, a starter is more valuable than a closer. It does no good to have a lights out pitcher in the bullpen if you can't get them a lead. The big problem is that if a pitcher's condition will let him start but not close, I don't trust his health period.

 

One other note, the difference between a great closer and good closer is maybe a win or two a year. For example, the Sox went 47-12 in games Papelbon pitched last year. The Phillies went 51-8 when Tom Gordon pitched. If a closer for the Sox puts up a 3.00 ERA, that means maybe a game or two less due to the closer. Meanwhile, the Sox gave twelve starts to Matt Clement and ten to Kyle Snider, both of him posted ERAs north of six. If making Papelbon a starter means shoring up that spot, they will win more games.

 

I don't think the Sox are abandoning using a good closer. There was just no good closers on the market and they need to explore other options. If Papelbon is healthy, he should explore a career as a starter.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

I don't think the closer role is undervalued at all by statheads. In fact, it is probably more undervalued by actual baseball managers. A relief ace is possibly the most important member of the pitching staff, provided they work in situations where their skills are needed. The problem is most guys get defined as "closers" pitching one inning in save situations instead of the true high leverage situations. That's a terrible use of a good pitcher.

 

Boston supposedly had closer problems in 2003 and 2005 and they still made the playoffs. Last year we had the best closer in the game and didn't sniff the playoffs. Detroit got by with Todd f'n Jones as their closer. St. Louis won a World Series with a late season stop-gap rookie. Not every team has a Rivera or Nathan. Bullpens are a crapshoot. I'd rather get a good, long career out of Papelbon than blow out his arm tyring to get saves.

 

Not trying to get saves. Trying to save/close out games.

 

 

I think the value of the closer is hideously undervalued by the internet community/bloggers/statheads. You can't oversimplify everything - Boston has been searching for a quality 9th inning pitcher for a very long time (other than one season of Foulke - and look at how far that got them), and now one has fallen into their laps and they've decided to f with it. I can see them going with some garbage retread as the closer this year as usual, and when the pen blows 10 or more saves this year and loses the division again, it won't be too hard to see why.

I can not speak for the entire community, but here is my view. The lack of a quality closer can seriously hinder a team. If a team has Joe Scrub in the closers' role, they will lose a few games. The same is true of a team that lacks a quality second baseman, a quality right fielder, etc. You can not expect to compete with a black hole in your team. That said, the idea of the "proven" closer is what is overrated. Every year three or four closers emerge in baseball, guys who can get the job done but do not yet have the credentials. If a team can identify a closer rather than overpay for one, that provides a huge advantage. Last year the Sox did just that. Maybe Manny Delcarmen does the job this year. Or Joel Pineiro, or Devern Hansack.

 

As for Jon Papelbon, a starter is more valuable than a closer. It does no good to have a lights out pitcher in the bullpen if you can't get them a lead. The big problem is that if a pitcher's condition will let him start but not close, I don't trust his health period.

 

One other note, the difference between a great closer and good closer is maybe a win or two a year. For example, the Sox went 47-12 in games Papelbon pitched last year. The Phillies went 51-8 when Tom Gordon pitched. If a closer for the Sox puts up a 3.00 ERA, that means maybe a game or two less due to the closer. Meanwhile, the Sox gave twelve starts to Matt Clement and ten to Kyle Snider, both of him posted ERAs north of six. If making Papelbon a starter means shoring up that spot, they will win more games.

 

I don't think the Sox are abandoning using a good closer. There was just no good closers on the market and they need to explore other options. If Papelbon is healthy, he should explore a career as a starter.

 

In 2005, the Yanks and Red Sox tied for the division at the end of the year but the Yanks got the crown because they had one more head to head win over Boston. There's an example of "one win" that meant a hell of a lot.

 

Just because a few guys emerge per year that can close games, and because Boston happened to have one in '06, doesn't mean that lightening will strike twice in 2007.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

In 2005, the Yanks and Red Sox tied for the division at the end of the year but the Yanks got the crown because they had one more head to head win over Boston. There's an example of "one win" that meant a hell of a lot.

 

Just because a few guys emerge per year that can close games, and because Boston happened to have one in '06, doesn't mean that lightening will strike twice in 2007.

 

Well of course in any pennant race you will have your what ifs. If Philly went to Ryan Howard earlier in 2005, they'd make the wild card. If the Red Sox had a single very good starter, that would make a difference. They would have won more games with a great closer, but there are many other factors that come into play.

 

As for the second part, the fun of the baseball season is seeing how these various strategies will work out. The Red Sox are taking a risk in seeing that they can find a closer. It would be foolish to think they do not have a plan. Whether or not it works remains to be seen, but I can see the reasoning behind it.

[treble 0]

In 2005, the Yanks and Red Sox tied for the division at the end of the year but the Yanks got the crown because they had one more head to head win over Boston. There's an example of "one win" that meant a hell of a lot.

Not really. Both teams made the playoffs, anyway, and lost out in the Division Series.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

They were fortunate to have the wild card to fall back on - and to have Cleveland fizzle at the end of the year after nearly catching up with the White Sox.

[The Man in Blak 0]

That said, the idea of the "proven" closer is what is overrated.

 

To really drill this down further, I think the idea of about whether particular innings are worth more in the context of the game is where casual fans and statistical analysts part company. Many casual baseball fans consider the ninth inning to be the most important and difficult inning in the ballgame; Jack Bauer even explicitly mentioned that you need somebody to "close out the game." Not only that, but the save statistic in itself focuses around the fact that the reliever finishes the game. And that's part of the problem for the more statistically-minded fans, I think; the save statistic is a real piece of crap. The worth of "proven closers" are measured by saves and these saves are accumulated more as a result of usage patterns, rather than skill.

 

cheech13 had already mentioned the two World Series teams from last year as examples of teams that got by without a "proven closer", but let's take another look at the Tigers for a second. In 2006, Todd Jones piled up a ton of saves, even though the better reliever (Zumaya) was actually pitching earlier in the game, in situations that were arguably much more difficult than simply "closing out the ninth." Just about anybody would rather face Jones than have to deal with Zumaya, but you wouldn't be able to discern that from the save totals. And that's where sabermetricians have a problem - the stat doesn't really track reliever effectiveness as much as it tracks how many times a particular reliever closed out the game in the ninth with a lead. Though he performed admirably in his role in the ninth, Jones himself is a point in favor of the argument that just about anybody can have success as a closer, if you choose to define that success only by save totals.