Vern Gagne 0 Report post Posted March 20, 2007 AL East New York Boston-wild card Toronto Tampa Bay Baltimore AL Central Minnesota Detroit Cleveland Chicago Kansas City AL West LAAoA Oakland Texas Seattle NL East Philadelphia New York-wildcard Atlanta Florida Washington NL Central St.Louis Milwaukee Houston Chicago Cincinnati Pittsburgh NL West LA Dodgers San Diego Arizona San Fran. Colorado New York over Minnesota in 5 LAAoA over Boston in 4 LAAoA over New York in 6 St.Louis over New York in 5 Los Angeles over Philadelphia in 5 Los Angeles over St.Louis in 7 Los Angeles over LAAoA in 6 AL MVP-Derek Jeter NL MVP-Albert Pujos AL Cy Young-Johan Santana NL Cy Young-Jake Peavy AL ROY-Daisuke Matsuzaka NL ROY-Chris B. Young Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mik 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 See a few people picking Josh Hamilton for ROY. The magnitude of how much of a story that would be is pretty large. One of the best stories ever. I'd just be happy if he stays in the bigs all year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Hamilton making the bigs at all is a pretty stunning development. Personally, I would take it with a grain of salt until he actually makes it to the bigs and produces. Realistically, we're talking about a 25 year old with no professional experience above A ball. He's hit in 14 Spring Training games against the back end of teams. Josh Hamilton is 19 for 39, and yes that is superficially impressive. Willie Bloomquist is 20 for 49. Todd Linden is 20 for 50. Michael Ryan is 17 for 40. Matt Kata is 15 for 31. Maybe this is real talent from Josh Hamilton. But Spring Training numbers are MEANINGLESS. I can't stress that enough. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vivalaultra 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 And there's nothing really in Hamilton's minor league numbers to suggest that he'll be a top tier player. He didn't really have great power, with only 33 total homeruns in 6 seasons and a cumulative .293 average. Good numbers, no doubt, but nothing overly spectacularly different from many other minor leaguers. I mainly predicted he'd be ROY because it would be an awesome story, but, realistically, I think Chris Young or Kouzmanoff will get it, or perhaps it'll be somebody from out of left field that'll come up a few weeks into the season or something. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike wanna be 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 American League: East Boston New York (wild card) Toronto Baltimore Tampa Bay Central Minnesota Detroit Chicago Cleveland Kansas City West Oakland Los Angeles Texas Seattle National League: East New York Philadelphia Florida Atlanta Washington Central St. Louis Chicago Milwaukee Houston Cincinnati Pittsburgh West Los Angeles San Diego (wild card) San Fransisco Colorado Arizona ALDS: Oakland over New York, Minnesota over Boston NLDS: Los Angeles over San Diego, New York over St. Louis ALCS: Oakland over Minnesota NLCS: New York over Los Angeles WS: New York over Oakland Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
USC Wuz Robbed! 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Los Angeles and San Diego can't face in the LDS, oldskool. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Giving Rookie of the Year awards to Kaz Sazaki and Ichiro in 2000 and 2001, but not to Hideki Matsui in 2003 because he "wasn't a true rookie" and turning around now and giving it to Matzusaka is beyond criminal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Giving Rookie of the Year awards to Kaz Sazaki and Ichiro in 2000 and 2001, but not to Hideki Matsui in 2003 because he "wasn't a true rookie" and turning around now and giving it to Matzusaka is beyond criminal. Angel Berroa had a higher OPS, hit more HRs, scored more runs, stole 21 bases and did it all from a premium defensive position. Matsui wasn't really robbed in 2003. Berroa, by some freak occurrence, was actually the better player. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 I don't see how Hamilton is going to be RoY when he probably won't even be in the starting lineup on a regular basis. He'd probably be the Reds' fifth outfielder, and he doesn't have the option to DH. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vivalaultra 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Yeah, but there's a 98% chance that Ken Griffey Jr. will be hurt by May 1st. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingPK 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 AL East Boston New York Toronto Tampa Baltimore Central Twins Indians (WC) Tigers White Sox Royals West Angels A's Mariners Rangers NL East Phillies Braves Mets Marlins Nationals Central Milwaukee (Why not? They are full of potential and none of the other teams are that much better) St. Louis Chicago Cincinatti Pittsburgh Houston West Dodgers Padres (WC) D'Backs Rockies Giants AL MVP & Cy Young: Johan Santana, MIN ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS NL MVP: Albert Pujols, STL Cy Young: Jason Schmidt, LAD ROY: No clue. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Annabelle 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 i thought i was the only one going with the dodgers to take it all this year. nice surprise. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Annabelle 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 american league al west yanks boston jays devil rays orioles al central detroit twins indians sox royals al west a's angels rangers mariners nl east (will be most competitve) phillies mets braves marlins nationals nl central brewers cubs cardinals reds astros pirates nl west dodgers diamondbacks rockies padres giants al wildcard: twins nl wildcard: mets mets vs. dodgers - dodgers phillies vs. brewers - phillies dodgers vs. phillies - dodgers tigers vs. a's - tigers twins vs. yankees - twins tigers vs. twins - tigers dodgers vs. tigers - dodgers Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cuban Linx 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 AL East New York Boston (Wildcard) Toronto Tampa Bay Baltimore AL Central Minnesota Detroit Cleveland Chicago Kansas City AL West Texas Los Angeles Oakland Seattle NL East Philadelphia New York (Wildcard) Atlanta Florida Washington NL Central St. Louis Milwaukee Chicago Houston Cincinnati Pittsburgh NL West San Diego Los Angeles Colorado Arizona San Francisco Playoffs Yankees over Rangers Twins over Red Sox Phillies over Padres Cardinals over Mets Yankees over Twins Phillies over Cardinals World Series: Yankees over Phillies Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MarvinisaLunatic 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 OK..I honestly dont care enough about the other 5 divisions in baseball to give my opinion on the races, but the trend of Orioles in last place for 9/10s of your picks annoys me. They are not a last place team, they are not worse than the freakin Devil Rays. They are not even a 4th place team, as they are better than the Blue Jays. In any other stupid division besides the AL East I'd dare say they would be a contender and have at least a shot at something better than 3rd place...but given the givens..they are a 3rd place team in the AL East. Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen will be awesome this year. The back end of the rotation is iffy..Trachsel has looked like crap so far..Wright has been bleh but servicable as a #4 or 5..Penn is pissing people off in the organization with his work ethic so far this spring so who knows if he'll even be with the big club out of spring. But 3/5s of the rotation is iron clad guaranteed (baring no injuries) to be one of the best trios in baseball..The bullpen will almost have to be an improvement over last year (I dont even feel like naming names out of last years bullpen that weren't ready for the majors but brought up anyway and thrown to the lions just because they had no one else that could get the job done). Adding Jay Payton and Aubrey Huff will almost certainly mean an improvement over last years offense with guys that had no right to be starting on a major league roster some times from an offensive standpoint (looking squarely at guys like Brandon Fahey, Jeff Fiorentino, David Newhan, Chris Gomez, Fernando Tatis, Luis Terrerro and a cast of others I cant even remember) Theres no freaking way the Os finish in last place, the team they have is NOT worse than the Devil Rays and theres absolutely no logical reason for so many of you having them in last place. 4th place I can deal with because they've finished in 4th place for the last decade practically..BUT I think if you actually consider it a bit deeper they are better than the Blue Jays. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 The Orioles have compiled a better record than the Blue Jays once in the last nine years. The last finished above .500 in 1997. What exactly have they done to merit a third place prediction? They have an ace in Erik Bedard and a nice prospect in Adam Loewen. That's not enough. The Jays have Halladay and Burnett. The Orioles have one legitimate offensive star in Miguel Tejada, the Jays have three with Vernon Wells, Frank Thomas and Troy Glaus. The Jays won 87 games last year and added Frank Thomas. The Orioles look good if they existed in a vacuum. They're not, the other 29 teams made move to improve their teams as well. I would pick them 4th, but 5th place is more likely than 3rd. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MarvinisaLunatic 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 So what, Ramon Hernandez is chopped liver offensively? Aubrey Huff despite declining #s over the last few years has hit 20 HRs in 5 straight seasons and I think playing at Camden Yards should if nothing else at least facilitate a 6th straight season. How likely is Frank Thomas to hit close to 40 HRs and drive in over 100 again? And dont forget to mention the Jays lost Ted Lilly who was a big part of their rotation last year. And if we're going to say the Orioles have only finished better than the Jays once in the last nine years, then lets just go ahead and mention that they haven't finished worse than the Devil Rays in those same nine years either. Theres no way they are worse than the Devil Rays this year either, despite everyone saying that (not just on here I see). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 And dont forget to mention the Jays lost Ted Lilly who was a big part of their rotation last year. Not really. He was quite average last year. He looks like a big part because the rest of their rotation aside from Doc and A.J. was somewhat below average. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MarvinisaLunatic 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 And dont forget to mention the Jays lost Ted Lilly who was a big part of their rotation last year. Not really. He was quite average last year. He looks like a big part because the rest of their rotation aside from Doc and A.J. was somewhat below average. He won 15 games..Id think a 15 game winner would be an important part of any rotation. I was looking at the Jays Rotation just a few minutes ago after I posted that..theres no mistaking Halladay for being one of the best pitchers in baseball. Burnett can't stay healthy for a whole season and Chacin wasnt that great last year despite promise. Apparently 4 and 5 are up in the air despite the signings of Ohka and Thompson. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mik 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 NL East: Phillies Mets Marlins Braves Nationals NL Central: Brewers Cubs Cardinals Astros Reds Pirates NL West: Dodgers Padres D-Backs Rockies Giants AL East: Yankees Red Sox D-Rays Blue Jays Orioles AL Central: Twins Tigers Indians White Sox Royals AL West: Angels A's Rangers Mariners NLDS:Phillies over Cubs; Dodgers over Brewers ALDS: Twins over Angels; Yankees over Tigers NLCS: Dodgers over Phillies ALCS: Twins over Yankees WS: Dodgers over Twins NL ROY: Chris Young - D-Backs AL ROY: Alex Gordon - Royals NL CY: Scott Olsen - Marlins AL CY: Johan Santana - Twins NL MVP: Ryan Howard - Phillies AL MVP: Joe Mauer - Twins Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 And dont forget to mention the Jays lost Ted Lilly who was a big part of their rotation last year. Not really. He was quite average last year. He looks like a big part because the rest of their rotation aside from Doc and A.J. was somewhat below average. He won 15 games..Id think a 15 game winner would be an important part of any rotation. His offence won him 15 games. He averaged nearly 6 runs a game in run support. He could have easily gone 10-15 or something similar last year, and then you'd be saying he wasn't that great, which shows how useless wins are as a statistic. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 OK..I honestly dont care enough about the other 5 divisions in baseball to give my opinion on the races, but the trend of Orioles in last place for 9/10s of your picks annoys me. They are not a last place team, they are not worse than the freakin Devil Rays. They are not even a 4th place team, as they are better than the Blue Jays. In any other stupid division besides the AL East I'd dare say they would be a contender and have at least a shot at something better than 3rd place...but given the givens..they are a 3rd place team in the AL East. The Rays and O's are both 70-75 win ballclubs. In the grand scheme of things, does it matter who you choose for 4th and 5th? Neither is going to be a contender in any sense of the word. They are mired in baseball mediocrity. I would assume that most are picking the Rays to finish ahead of the Orioles because they are team on the way up, packed with tons of interesting talent. The O's are on the opposite spectrum... a middling franchise that plugs holes with journeymen and underperforming AAAA talent. I know this is your team and you want to be optimistic, but when you look at things objectively there isn't a lot to be excited about. Bedard is a legitimate no. 1 starter and one of most underrated pitchers in baseball. After that, there's some potential and some question marks. With the exception of Markakis, the offense is aging and lacking impact bats. The big offseason acquisitions were Huff and a bunch of bullpen arms. That's like trying to fix a severed leg with a band-aid. It's a misuse of resources because it doesn't nothing to solve the real deficiencies of the team. PECOTA projects the Jays to win 80, the Rays to win 78 and the Orioles to win 74. That's close enough that injuries, slumps and breakout performances could shuffle them up greatly. Sit back and have fun. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Man in Blak 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 AL East Boston New York Toronto Baltimore Tampa Bay Comments: I realize that it's tantamount to heresy, but I think that the Yankees have a decent shot of falling out of the playoff picture. The bench and rotation is as bad as it's been in years, and the bullpen doesn't look to have a reliable bridge to Rivera. ARod may bounce back a bit and Cano could improve further, but Mientkiewicz is set to waste away plate appearances at first and almost everybody else is one year removed from their glory years. The Abreu deal saved their season last year, but I can't hardly see a ripoff of that magnitude occurring again. As for the Baltimore/Tampa Bay battle, I give the edge to the Orioles, primarily because Tampa doesn't really have much pitching outside of Kazmir and maybe James Shields. AL Central Detroit Minnesota Cleveland Chicago Kansas City Comments: Francisco Liriano would make the Twins my favorite to take the pennant, but his absence (and the addition of Gary Sheffield) brings the Tigers to the forefront of the American League again. Cleveland will be in the hunt to the very end but, unless they manage to swing a deal for an impact starting pitcher midseason, their pitching will once again keep them out of the playoffs. The White Sox are in the same boat; bunting and grittiness can't save a pitching staff that looks to take yet another step backwards. The Royals won't be great - I don't even see them approaching 75 wins - but they could give teams absolute fits this year, especially if they find a way to employ an actual shortstop this year. AL West Oakland Los Angeles Texas Seattle Comments: The A's don't appear to be as strong as last year, but they should still have enough to take the weakest division in the league. With improvements to the pitching staff and the apparent karmic reward for Buck Showalter's departure, the Rangers are poised to do more damage this year, but will probably have to settle for spoiling the Angels' bid for the playoffs. The Mariners have a real shot at turning in the worst record in the AL this year, though the prospect of seeing Jose Guillen and Jeff Weaver match up against the Angels should make for decent entertainment, at the very least. NL East Philadelphia New York Atlanta Florida Washington Comments: The heightened expectations for the Phillies are more a function of the Mets taking a downturn than anything else; New York needs everything to fall into place to have a league-average rotation, let along a good one. Atlanta will probably do more spoiling than contending, but watch out for them if they manage to trade one of their prospects for a decent mid-rotation starter. Florida still doesn't have a real centerfielder and will need almost half a dozen players to repeat their career years to stay in contention. The Nationals may very well lose 110 games this year. NL Central Chicago Milwaukee St. Louis Houston Cincinnati Pittsburgh Comments: It will be a very tight race for the NL Central crown, but I think the Cubs can edge out the Brewers by virtue of a stronger offense. The Cardinals are in the same boat as their 2006 NLCS opponents - there's a lot that needs to fall into place for that rotation to work, most notably the addition of The Braden Looper Experience. The Astros should be a great team next year, once Pence can take the outfield and Burke can supplant Biggio at the keystone, but they look to be in a re-tooling year this year; don't be surprised if the Reds leapfrog them, especially if Homer Bailey makes his debut early on in the season. The Pirates will be pesky, as always, but I don't see them going too much farther than their usual 70 win output. NL West Arizona San Diego Los Angeles San Francisco Colorado Comments: Thanks to the overall mediocrity of the NL, I think it's feasible to see another bottom feeder reverse their fortunes very quickly and the Diamondbacks look like they could be in the driver's seat for this year, with all of their young talent finally coming into focus. San Diego and Los Angeles will make it a tight race all the way down to the last year of the season, but the holes on offense for both teams may be too much to overcome. The mania over the home run record should help distract from the fact that the Giants are a really bad team; the Rockies will be much closer to toppling them for the glory of fourth place than you'd expect. Playoffs ALDS: Tigers over A's, Red Sox over Twins NLDS: Cubs over Diamondbacks, Phillies over Brewers ALCS: Tigers over Red Sox NLCS: Cubs over Phillies WS: Tigers over Cubs, in a rematch of the 1945 World Series. NL ROY: Chris Young - D-Backs AL ROY: Alex Gordon - Royals NL CY: Roy Oswalt - Astros AL CY: Johan Santana - Twins NL MVP: Albert Pujols - Cardinals AL MVP: David Ortiz - Red Sox Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
USC Wuz Robbed! 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Marvin, if it makes you feel better, as a joke I was gonna put Boston in 5th place, but couldn't do it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Report post Posted March 21, 2007 I just want to know when baseball fans (as a whole) are going to realize that wins are not an indicator of a pitcher's greatness. Probably never, but it still bugs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Queen Leelee Report post Posted March 21, 2007 The D-Rays will likely suck once again... but, there's hope with Delmon Young and the Jap 3B. And if Baldelli stops being Ken Griffey III. The O's pitching simply sucks outside of Bedard and the closer. And like cheech says, you've got a lot of aging bats and scrubs, which doesn't make the O's a very "trendy" team. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MarvinisaLunatic 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Everyuone freakin forgets D-Cab, but he started showing late last year what he could do if he fixed his control problems. 157 K / 130 H / 104 BB / 17 Wild Pitches in 148IP If he even cuts his walk total in half this year, and pitches in more innings than he did last year (due to getting sent down to the minors to get things fixed, which happened because he realized he needed vision correction) then he is going to have an outstanding season. The amazing thing was he only allowed 85 runs with all those walks..it could have been way more..I saw him walk the bases loaded with no outs only to strike out the side and strand the runners..and hes also got the stuff to pitch complete games (2 last year). His last start was an almost no hitter (broken up in the 9th, 1 hitter) at yankee stadium.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 That's a big, big if. How many pitchers of his ilk cut their walk total in half? I drew up a list of players with Cabrera's walk and strikeout totals. Guess how many cut their strikeout rate in half. Try zero. You've got Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard, and then some guys who either flamed out (Mitch Williams, Herb Score) or had mediocre careers (Eric Plunk, Jason Bere). Nolan Ryan was a once in a lifetime pitcher. Cabrera could have a great season, but you can't count on it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
2GOLD 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Marv, it's hard to defend the Orioles on potential alone when their prospects have rarely lived up to their potential. Sure, they have the potential of three great starters but that's been a familiar song and dance. Your best bet? Make your pick, shut your mouth, hope they deliver on the potential and then just smile knowing you called it and enjoy it. Arguing potential against proven is a losing war man. The O's offense has potential to do things. But it is a lot of ifs. If they get all the ifs in order? Sure, anything is possible but it would require a lot. A full healthy very productive season from both Hernandez and Huff. Markakis and Patterson to continue to eccel. Mora and Miggy to come up better in the clutch, Roberts to get his speed back and remain healthy. There isn't question that Loewen, D-Cab and Bedard have the POTENTIAL to be good to great pitchers but that's also a leap of faith betting on potential alone since they could also end up being complete busts. The Pirates pitchers have potential, doesn't mean people are going to peg them to win the World Series and they have actually added some nice pieces. The O's are a wait and see situation. Getting a pick of 3rd is a damn miracle based on potential alone. Be fine with the fifth place predictions, if they are wrong then the confusion is priceless enough. Gotta deal with the reality the O's are still a LOT more question marks than answers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
humanoid92 0 Report post Posted March 21, 2007 Yeah, I gotta agree with everyone about Baltimore here. How can anyone definitively say they're better than Toronto and likely to finish at least third? I agree that Tampa is a joke, maybe even worse than they've been in the past, and there's no way Baltimore should finish last. But in that tough division, I don't exactly see Baltimore shaking things up. Like everyone said, they just don't have the pitching to compete in that division. You can say all you want about the lineup, but they've had a nasty offense for years (many times better than what they're putting out there now) and it still hasn't equated to a winning record. Even when they got off to that great start in '05, reality quickly caught up with them. The offense really isn't as good as you're making it out to be anyway. Not that they're bad, but I don't see how you can expect them to overperform. The lineup is full of guys that have already had career years that you can't expect them to approach. Can you honestly see Tejada, Roberts, Mora, Millar, Huff, and even Patterson doing anything that exceeds what they've already done? If their best wasn't good enough to catapult this team over .500, what's the difference now? It's a dangerous lineup but it doesn't match up to the Yanks or Sox. Everyone says the starting pitching is full of potential, but I've never liked guys like Bedard or Cabrera. Maybe I'm guilty of slighting Bedard but I just don't like the guy. I mean, you're going to war with Jaret Wright as your number 3 or 4 starter in arguably the toughest top-heavy division in baseball... really? The one thing I will say is that the bullpen is much improved: Baez, Bradford, and Walker are all really good pickups. On a good team that would make a world of difference, but with this squad, how much impact will it have? I like Ray a lot, but like everyone said, it all comes down to the starting pitching. I'm no Toronto fanboy, but on paper the Jays have a better team. The lineup might not look as impressive but BJ Ryan is a pretty dominant closer and Halladay and Burnett crap on any starter the O's have. You could make the argument that if you combine the two starting rotations, Bedard is the only Baltimore pitcher that would make the cut. I don't see how anyone can consider Baltimore higher than the 9th or 10th best team in the AL at this point. I can appreciate the optomism of a die-hard fan, but if you're really banking on all the "what if's" to pan out, prepare to be disappointed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
