Summer Box Office...

[Craig Th 0]

How bout you worry about yourself.

 

[bob_barron 0]

I don't see why you're being so snippy over this, Mole.

 

Why not update the box office numbers in your first post or simply unpin the thread? Before I posted in this, it had been almost a month since anyone posted in here.

[Craig Th 0]

I don't see why you care that much Bob. I'll get to it when I get to it and it doesn't hurt ANYONE that it's still pinned.

[bob_barron 0]

I don't care that much. Just curious why this thread was still pinned when it hadn't had any updates in postings or in your summer box office compilation.

[RHR 0]

I just wanted to see how I was doing at the "halfway" point of summer....let's see...

 

1. Pirates of the Carribean:400 million---Last one of a high grossing series, and mom, dad, and the kids can all go

 

Ooops...only on track to finish about $305-$310.

 

2. Shrek 3:400 million---Same as above, but, PoC will have thismuch more drawing power

Again, big oooops...on pace for $320-$325...may try to get late summer rehash buzz...

 

3. Spiderman 3: 300 million---Not getting as much buzz, and, it's coming out next week and no one I know has said "Hey...wanna go see Spidey?"

 

Not a very good film, but, so far is the summer champ..should end up in the $335-$340 range.

 

4. Harry Potter: 225 million---as they get older, the audience seems to grow, I see this being a

feasible number.

Off to a strong start...I think I was dead on with this one...

 

5. Ratatouille: 225 million---in line with "Cars"

Okay...it's at $125 or so...and still has a few weekends left in it...should end up around $175-$200

 

6. Bourne Ultimatium: 200 millions---everyone I know thinks the Bourne movies rock, and 40YOV little shout out helps

JURY STILL OUT

7. The Simpsons: 200 million---HOWEVER, if this does not suck, it has potential to make tons more

JURY STILL OUT

8. Evan Almighty: 160 million---Steve Carell can carry it, NBC will help promote it, it's "safe"

WOW...I WAS SO FAR OFF IT ISN'T EVEN FUNNY...MY FRIEND WANTED TO KILL EVERYONE INVOLVED WITH IT AFTER SEEING IT

9. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: 150 million. Eh, I could take it or leave it. But, freakin' Click made $135 million, so, this should be slightly more.

JURY STILL OUT

10. Fantastic Four 2: 125 million---Eh, it's a comic book movie...and it will be better than...

Wow...$125 after one month out...should eek another $5 million or so...

11. Transformers: 115 million---Will suck. Will bomb. However, it will not affect Shia Labeoufs popularity.

Okay...I hated this movie..but...whatever...I WAS WAY ,WAY OFF...Looks like it should end up in the $250-$300 range...

12. Rush Hour 3: 110 million---It's been too long.

JURY STILL OUT

13. Knocked Up: 100 million---Again, safe comedy.

I am really happy to see this do so well....it should end things in the $150-$175 range...

14. Ocean's 13: 100 million--On star power alone. But, if it is better than 12, it will make a little more.

pretty much dead on...got a little more

15. Live Free or Die Hard: 90 million---And, I think it will be really good. But no one cares anymore

wow...should end up in the $120-$140 range...and it was really good.

 

TOP 10 SO FAR THIS SUMMER

1. SPIDERMAN 3 $335 MIL

2. SHREK 3 $317 MIL

3. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3 $303 MIL

4. TRANSFORMERS $181 MIL

5. KNOCKED UP $135 MIL

6. FANTASTIC FOUR 2 $126 MIL

7. RATATOUILLE $122 MIL

8. OCEAN 13 $110 MIL

9. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD $90 MILLION

10. EVAN ALMIGHTY $83 MILLION

 

STILL TO COME: SIMPSONS, HARRY POTTER, BOURNE ULTIMATIUM, RUSH HOUR 3, I NOW PRONOUNCE YOU CHUCK AND LARRY

 

Not bad so far.

[bob_barron 0]

1. Shrek the Third - (I don't want this to be #1, but I just have a feeling)

 

 

Shrek 3 made 441 million three years ago, despite being a pretty crappy movie and greatly inferior to the original. Assuming Shrek the Third isn't a complete crapfest, it should still make quite a bit of money. But I see it topping out about 380-400. Week 2 competition from Pirates will severely cut into its business.

 

So I'll say: 385

 

Shrek 3 made 321 mil. I didn't realise how much word of mouth would really hurt the big 3 in May. Pirates coming in the second week really hurt it.

 

 

QUOTE

2. Spiderman 3

 

 

Spider-Man made 403 mil, while Spider-Man 2 made 373 mil. I think Spider-Man 3 will come in between the two movies. A lot of people of talking like this will be the last one, so they will definetly want to see it in theatres. Spider-Man is being released first, and has no competition it's second week so it should be able to rack up enough business to sustain itself when Shrek and Pirates come to town. I see this one making about 380-400.

 

 

Spider-Man 3 made 336 million, so I was off here too. Again, word of mouth hurt this one.

 

3. Pirates 3

 

 

I think Pirates was right place right time last summer, and I don't think it will match Pirates 2 business. I really think they should've pushed Pirates 3 back a bit and just let Shrek and Spider-Man rule the month. I think this will top out at 350.

 

Pirates 3 made 308 million. Word of mouth, the long running time, being the third of the big 3 and the fact that Pirates 2 came out last year really hurt it.

 

 

4. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix

 

 

Order of Phoenix will be more in line with Azkaban, which made 260 million in 04. They were smart in pushing it back until July 13th to avoid the May rush, unlike in 04 when it got its ass kicked by Shrek. I don't think Transformers will be too much competiton, but releasing it in the summer instead of the winter will cut into the gross. I'd say about 265.

 

Order of Phoenix will probably top out around 290. I'm glad I was wrong here, and that it was able to sustain good word of mouth the rest of the summer. I think releasing this in July was a brilliant move. They should do the same for Book 7.

 

5. Rush Hour 3

 

 

The last Rush Hour made 226 million, but that was 6 years ago. Does anyone even remember Chris Tucker? They were smart to push it to the end of the summer, but I don't think they'll get 200 million. 150 mil maybe. I could also see this one being the flop of the summer.

 

Not the flop of the summer, but it looks like it will make around 140-150. There was no need for this movie, and I don't think New Line will even be making much off of it given how much they have to pay everyone.

 

 

6. Transformers

 

 

This is another movie I'm thinking could bomb. It will do huge on fourth of July, but will be facing week 2 of Ratatouille and then in Transformers week 2- it will have Harry Potter. And everyone's sick of Michael Bay. I don't think this is the 6th biggest film of the summer.

 

I was dead wrong here, and I did not expect Transformers to be as huge as it was. Great marketing campaign, and I think people were tired of all the sequels. I thought it sucked.

 

7. The Bourne Ultimatum

 

 

I think Bourne will top 200 and Transformers and Rush Hour 2. Bourne Supremacy made 176 and was a critical hit and a big hit with audiences and played well on video. In terms of action movies, it will have been a month since Transformers. I see Bourne making 220.

 

 

I called it topping Rush Hour 3 and making 220. You could just tell this was going to be big.

 

 

- The Simpsons Movie

 

 

Hmmmmm. I think this will have a big opening weekend, and then word of mouth will depend whether this stays alive. But doing a Simpsons Movie now? Bad idea. I don't see this making a huge amount of money.

 

And as an aside mole, 100-199 is a huge gap. You need to shorten it.

 

I called the big opening weekend, but I was wrong about it not making a huge amount of money. 180 million is very commendable, and a great number.

 

Live Free or Die Hard

 

 

This one is interesting to handicap. The last Die Hard made 100 million. But Bruce Willis' star has totally faded. His last three star vehicles bombed and except for Sin City- his movies haven't done too well. But this is Bruce Willis in his comfort zone, and I think Die Hard should make about 100-120 million. Having the fourth of July as week 2 will help.

 

Ended up making 133 million, and I think this did a lot better then expected and one of the pleasant suprises of the summer.

 

Ocean's Thirteen

 

 

Ocean's 11 made 180, Ocean's 12 made 120. Did anyone really want to see another Ocean's movie? They picked a perfect release for it though, so it should have a good opening weekend. I see this making about 110-120.

 

Ended up making 117 million. Called this one.

 

Ratatouille

 

Less then 200? Less then Ocean's 13? Come on Mole. It's a Pixar movie! Since 1998, every Pixar movie has made at least 244 million. And their last movie was a dumb flick about Cars. It will have a huge week + 4th of July before the Potter flick comes in. Plus given that Order might have a PG-13, it's really the only family flick for the next month. 270 million for Rat I think.

 

I think I overestimated this one. While it did make 200, it took forever to get there. I think a lot of people were just creeped out by rats in the kitchen.

 

Evan Almighty

 

I could see this getting lost in the shuffle. Has to face week 2 of Fantastic Four and then in its second week, it has Ratatouille, another family film. Plus they went ridiciously overbudget, which is never a good sign. I could see this being another summer disappointment.

 

Called this one.

 

Fantastic Four 2

 

Fantastic Four made 154 million. I think F42 will do about the same.

 

I think this did a little less then I expected, topping 131 million.

 

I Now Pronouce You Chuck & Larry

 

150 million.

 

hmmmm, only made about 120 million. I think Adam Sandler's star is starting to slightly fade, as I think this should've done a lot better.

 

Nancy Drew

 

No way this makes 100-199 million. It's Nancy fucking Drew. Being the only movie for girls will help, but I don't think it makes that much.

 

Well duh. Everyone knew this one was wrong.

 

Sleepers?

 

Knocked Up

 

Seth Rogan is no Steve Carrel. And it has second week of Pirates. This will do pretty well, but it needs more starpower to go over the top.

 

Never expected this to have the word of mouth that it got. Kudos to Judd for pulling this one off. 20% of its total gross was from the opening weekend which is terrific.

 

Hairspray

 

I don't think this will bomb like Rent and Producers, but I don't see a Chicago or Dreamgirls. Somewhere in the middle.

 

Hairspray has also held up very well, with only 23% of its gross recorded in its opening weekend. And it did beat Dreamgirls, so hey!

 

28 Weeks Later

 

Good opening weekend, and then lost in the shuffle.

 

Didn't even have a good opening weekend.

 

Hostel Part II

 

Should be a nice alternative in the middle of summer.

 

Horror movies have really burnt out audiences.

 

The Invasion

 

Tank.

 

Got this one right.

 

Superbad

 

It's George Michael and the fat kid from Accepted. It will be awesome, but no one will see this.

 

 

Wow, I was dead wrong on this one. Kudos to Sony for the amazing marketing campaign and for presenting the film as a breath of fresh air in the midst of a summer of sequels.

 

Hot Rod

 

This should do alright.

 

Didn't expect this one to tank as badly as it did.

 

A Mighty Heart

 

This seems more like a movie to release in the fall, not summer. I don't see this one doing very well.

 

Called this one.

[In Credible 0]

You bumped this to pat yourself on the back?

[bob_barron 0]

I bumped it to see how well I did with my predictions. And others can see how well they did

[RHR 0]

I ended up getting 14 out of 15 right.

My total for my original 15 was 2.9 Billion, they ended up around $3.060 Billion.

I nailed 4 movies in the right spot ( Shrek 3, Bourne, Rush Hour 3, and Oceans 13)

I got Box Office close on a few.

I was WAYYYYYY OFF on Transformers (made way more) and Evan Almighty (made way less).

I called SuperBad, although it made MORE than I thought it would.

 

Overall, I think I should look to working in Hollywood. Except for movies with big friggin' robots....

[Brocklock 0]

So, I guess 1408 would be the big sleeper hit of the summer since it wasn't mentioned here and made more money than a few of the films that were mentioned here.