Jayson Stark's Overrated/Underrated

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stor...&id=2880887

 

Thoughts on his selections.

 

1. Barry Zito

 

Agree. Won a Cy Young award (deservingly), but became an above-average pitcher who throws tons of innings. Certainly not worth $120 million. He's not as bad as his numbers this year though. A left-handed flyball pitcher will struggle with 42 year old Barry Bonds patrolling left field.

 

2. J.D. Drew

 

Disagree. Not that he doesn't have his faults, but if everyone lists those thoughts right away when his name comes up, who's overrated him?

 

3. Andruw Jones

 

Agree, since MVP voters became enamored with his gaudy HR totals. Fielding assessments are for the scouts so I can't judge. On a historical basis, I disagree he was overrated.

 

4. Juan Pierre

 

Agree.

 

5. Bobby Abreu

 

Agree actually, but for different reasons. I never bought into the hustle crap of course. But Abreu's power is gone and he's not a defensive asset.

 

6. Brian Giles

 

Agreed. Once underrated but reputation outweighs current ability.

 

7. Alfonso Soriano

 

Agree. Currently owns .326 career OBP.

 

8. Richie Sexson

 

Agree. It's easy to jump on a good hitter having a poor start. Historically however, NO hitter at his height has enjoyed successed after age 32.

 

9. Bob Wickman

 

Disagree. Last had a below average ERA in 1993, and he went 14-4 while doing it.

 

10. Jeff Suppan

 

Disagree. He wasn't paid $40 million on the expectation of being an ace. He got it for being an above-average reliable starter. The Brewers have not been disappointed so far.

 

I'll come up with my own list, but I want to split the posts in doing so.

[CanadianChris 0]

Pierre should top that list. The best thing you can say about him is that he steals a lot of bases, but he's still only 74% lifetime in steal success rate. He hardly ever gets on base anymore, and he has no power at all. He's below average in the field. And yet Ned Colletti is paying him $44 million.

[Vern Gagne 0]

I just read his book where he ranks the all-time overrated/underrated.

 

 

I think Bill Hall is overrated. He's got home run power, but the on-base isn't very impressive.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Agree on Drew and Abreu.

[Failed Bridge 0]

Having thought about it I would say the most overrated player of all time is Mark McGuire. Dude hit homers and did nothing else. Couldn't field, couldn't throw, couldn't run, and couldn't hit for average.

 

If he never had that 70 homer season then there would be no HoF controversy because he probably wouldn't be mentioned.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Having thought about it I would say the most overrated player of all time is Mark McGuire. Dude hit homers and did nothing else. Couldn't field, couldn't throw, couldn't run, and couldn't hit for average.

 

If he never had that 70 homer season then there would be no HoF controversy because he probably wouldn't be mentioned.

I disagree. Along with the home runs you've also got a player who drew a ton of walks in his career. McGwire walked almost as many times as he struck out. He won a gold glove but that's dubious. Throwing, how good of an arm do you need at first base?

 

McGwire from 1988-91 had faults. He found it around 1992, but then suffered some injuries and it took him some time to enjoy a full season. How much of that was PEDs? Who knows. Even at his worse when he hit .201 however, he was still a productive offensive player. The A's won four division titles from 1988-92, so McGwire certainly wasn't a big problem then.

 

As for the Hall, McGwire made the All-Star game nine times between 1987-97. There are about four players who have been to that many All-Star rosters and don't come up in Hall discussions. Of the 15 who have been to nine, 14 are eligible, and six are in. The only one I've never heard mentioned as a HOF candidate is Frank McCormick, an excellent defensive 1B who had the fortune of continuing to play through World War II.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

My top ten most overrated players of all time. Not an exhaustive list, as I'm sure there are a handful I have forgotten. Keep in mind these players are still good/great, just not what they're sometimes made out to be.

 

1. Jim Rice

 

Compiled big hitting numbers as a right-handed hitter in the best park for right-handed hitters of the era. Short peak, not a notable baserunner and not a particularly good defensive player.

 

2. Nolan Ryan

 

Invariably on most top ten lists of pitchers. Career winning percentage a mere .526 and ERA+ and raw ERA fall outside of the top 100. Hard to hit but walked far too many hitters.

 

3. Pete Rose

 

Made the all-century team. Truly valuable as a third baseman but otherwise an above average hitter who proved extremely durable.

 

4. Lou Brock

 

Stuck around for eight years slugging under .400. Tim Raines was a superior player.

 

5. Dizzy Dean

 

Gaudy win totals for a top offensive team for 3 1/2 years. Was an elite pitcher for a short span but career was very, very short. Compare him to Johan Santana who is honestly as good a pitcher.

 

6. Derek Jeter

 

Average at BEST as a fielder. Sal Fasano hits a monster home run here and there. Does that make him a top flight offensive player? Of course not. Similarly, a handful of great plays don't make Jeter a good defender. And yes, I watch the games.

 

7. Chuck Klein

 

The best hitting environment in MLB history, better than Coors Field, was the Baker Bowl in the early 30s. The Phillies hit .315 as a team and lost 102

games. Given that he walked 55-60 times a year, his peak seasons were good but hardly historic.

 

8. Dave Concepcion

 

The best shortstop of a weak crop of his era. Solid player, but never HOF caliber.

 

9. Lloyd Waner

 

Seriously. Hall of Fame?

 

10. Denny McLain

 

One of the biggest beneficiaries of the phenomenon of one year making a career. Had he won 28-29 games, no one would consider him higher than Mickey Lolich.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I'll give this a whirl.

 

1. Barry Zito

 

Based on the contract he got, yes he is overrated. But I think the sabermetric community underrates him. He benefited from the park and good defense in Oakland, but the fact remains that he is a lefty that can get you 200+ innings a year with a better than league average ERA. I think there's a lot of value in that.

 

2. J.D. Drew

 

I have a hard time calling him overrated because of all the flack he gets for the injuries and perceived lack of clutchness. He's overpaid but he's been an above average hitter and fielder for years and he's carried several teams to the playoffs.

 

3. Andruw Jones

 

Yes, he is overrated. His defense has slipped in recent years and despite the gaudy homerun totals the last few years he hasn't been an elite hitter.

 

4. Juan Pierre

 

Totally agree, and he might be the most overrated in the league. He can't hit, can't run and is only average defensively because of weak arm. If he hit 9th, or was used as a fourth outfielder he'd be very valuable but he's not worth what he gets paid.

 

5. Bobby Abreu

 

Disagree - He's having a poor season now but he's been a great player for a long time and has never received his just due. He's an OBP machine, he runs the bases well and fields his position competently. He's like the NY version of JD Drew.

 

6. Brian Giles

 

He was one of the best hitters in the game, but that's all gone now. I don't think anyone calls him great anymore, so he's a push.

 

7. Alfonso Soriano

 

Agreed. He had a great 2006 but in the previous two or three seasons he had deteriorated into a below average player that got by because he played 81 games a year in a hitter's haven. His defense has improved but he's not a CFer.

 

8. Richie Sexson

 

He still has power and he's a decent defender. You get out of him what you expect.

 

9. Bob Wickman

 

Agree, only because he is considered special because of the saves. He's a decent bullpen arm

 

10. Jeff Suppan

 

Like Zito, he's overpaid but has value because of his many innings that are better than league average.

 

Guys who I consider overrated (not that they are bad players by any means):

 

Carlos Lee

Chien-Ming Wang

Robinson Cano

Vernon Wells

Paul Konerko

Jason Schmidt

Ken Griffey Jr.

Justin Morneau

Michael Young

Carlos Delgado

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

In order for Konerko to be overrated he would have to be "rated". He's barely a blip on the radar.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

In order for Konerko to be overrated he would have to be "rated". He's barely a blip on the radar.

After their World Series run, many analysts were calling him one of the best hitters in baseball. That's died down now that the White Sox aren't that competitive, but he gets way more praise than he should for a marginal first baseman.

[treble 0]

Delgado? I don't know, he's been an automatic 30 HR-100 RBI guy for the last 10 years or whatever and that's pretty much what everyone expects of him, I don't think he usually even comes up in HoF discussions.

 

Wells is probably overrated, definitely overpaid, but the Jays really needed to keep him for PR reasons, mostly.

[Brett Favre 0]

I think Jeter is a case of being overrated and underrated. He's way overrated for the little things he does at times, but he's pretty underrated for how great of a hitter he has become.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I think Jeter is a case of being overrated and underrated. He's way overrated for the little things he does at times, but he's pretty underrated for how great of a hitter he has become.

I wasn't sure what do with Jeter. He's overrated on the whole clutch thing, plus his defense is still piss poor no matter how hard people try to defend him. But he's a good hitter for his position and is extremely durable. It's not so much that he is overrated, but comparable players, such as Carlos Guillen, are criminally underrated.

 

Delgado? I don't know, he's been an automatic 30 HR-100 RBI guy for the last 10 years or whatever and that's pretty much what everyone expects of him, I don't think he usually even comes up in HoF discussions.

 

On a second look, you may be right. He had an excellent peak as a hitter. It mostly stems from him still being regarded as an elite power hitter even though he's been deteriorating the past 2 or 3 seasons, but that's to be expected at his age.

[World's Worst Man 0]

Wells is overrated by people who follow the Blue Jays, and underrated by everyone else. His hitting is overrated by the Jays followers, and his defense is underrated by anyone else. He's probably the best CF in baseball, yet other outfielders tend to get more attention for their defence. And he's not really an elite hitter as many think he is. He would be if he was more consistent, but he's only really had one monster year, and a couple more very good years.

 

I would say Barry Bonds is still overrated by those who just completely ignore all of the negatives regarding him. He doesn't deserve the recognition that the numbers would suggest, due to the way those numbers were achieved. That includes everything that is a by-product of the HR numbers (OBP, SLG, BB).

[Mik 0]

No. 1 -- Roy Oswalt

 

Could somebody please explain why this guy isn't considered the National League's Johan Santana?

 

Oswalt is a two-time 20-game winner. He leads all active right-handers not named Pedro Martinez in winning percentage (104-50, .675). And he's the only active pitcher who can say he has never -- never -- had a season in which his winning percentage was worse than .625 or his ERA was higher than 3.50. Yet not only has he never won a Cy Young Award -- he's finished in the top three only once. Ridiculous, isn't it?

 

A couple of years ago, I asked his catcher, Brad Ausmus, how many people -- if I polled 10,000 Americans -- would have any idea Roy Oswalt was (at the time) coming off back-to-back 20-win seasons.

 

"That would depend," Ausmus chuckled, "on whether anyone on our team was among the 10,000 Americans."

 

OK, I retorted, suppose nobody on the Astros was among the 10,000 Americans?

 

"Oh," Ausmus said. "Then none."

 

Your honor, and members of the all-underrated jury, we rest our case.

 

No. 2 -- Trevor Hoffman

 

It's always fascinating how one month -- October -- can twist the perceptions of players in every conceivable direction. So we're going to toss all postseason stats into the dumpster and compare only the regular-season careers of two great closers.

 

Closer A and Closer B have both had long, distinguished careers. Closer B is considered a cinch Hall of Famer. Closer A still has folks debating whether he's Cooperstown-worthy or not.

 

Yet Closer A has converted 89.5 percent of his lifetime save opportunities, struck out 9.8 hitters per nine innings in his career and held those poor opposing hitters to a .207 batting average and .264 on-base percentage.

 

So Closer A beats Closer B in every one of these categories. Closer B's figures: 87.9 percent, 8.0 strikeouts per 9 IP, .214 average, .270 on-base.

 

Why, then, would anyone think that Closer A might not have Hall credentials as worthy as Closer B? Easy question. Because Closer B is Mariano Rivera, the Greatest Postseason Closer Who Ever Lived (34 saves, 0.80 ERA).

 

Closer A, on the other hand, is Hoffman, who once went eight years between postseason save opportunities through no fault of his own.

 

Now obviously, I'd have to be a major goofball to argue Hoffman has a better Hall case than Rivera. But that doesn't mean Hoffman hasn't been criminally underrated. Here's the best way to put their careers in perspective:

 

They have basically the same number of blown saves in their careers -- 58 for Hoffman, 57 for Rivera -- except Hoffman has had 70 more opportunities. In other words, Rivera would have to go two seasons without blowing a single save just to say he had the same save-conversion percentage as Trevor Hoffman. So can we please give this man his due already?

 

 

No. 3 -- Hanley Ramirez

 

We liked playing that Player A versus Player B game so much, let's try it again.

 

Player A is a National League shortstop. He is averaging a .303 batting average, 129 runs scored, 76 extra-base hits and 52 stolen bases per 162 games in his career.

 

Player B is also an NL shortstop. He's averaging .288, 114 runs, 60 extra-base hits and 61 steals per 162 games.

 

Player A is 23. So is Player B. So which one would you start your team with?

 

If I didn't tell you the names, I'm betting you'd take Player A, right? But now let's reverse that. Let's say I had never shown you those numbers. And then I asked if you'd rather have Ramirez (aka Player A) or Jose Reyes (Player B). Then what?

 

Admit it. You'd take Reyes. Heck, to be honest, I'd probably take Reyes myself. But does anybody who doesn't own a teal cap know Ramirez's numbers are actually better? Dubious. Which sums up his underratedness just about perfectly.

 

 

No. 4 -- Jake Peavy

 

Is there a more fun pitcher to watch in the entire National League than Peavy? If there is, he's at least on a list that's shorter than Tim Kurkjian.

 

Since 2004, if we compare the Padres' strikeout machine to all NL starting pitchers with as many innings pitched as he has, he tops the whole league in strikeouts, strikeout ratio, WHIP and ERA. And if you enjoy swinging and missing, Jake Peavy is your man. The only NL starter who has induced that with greater frequency than Peavy (27.3 percent), according to our friends at Inside Edge, is the Phillies' Cole Hamels (27.9).

 

Yet Peavy is probably only about the 15th-most-talked-about pitcher in his own time zone. And anybody with that kind of greatness-to-pub ratio is a lock to make a list like this.

 

No. 5 -- C.C. Sabathia

 

You know what might be the biggest upset of the year? That Sabathia didn't get one vote in our recent "Which Pitchers Would You Pay to Watch?" poll. Heck, I'd pay to watch him.

 

He's already the first left-handed pitcher since Andy Pettitte to start his career with six straight seasons of double-digit wins. He has won more games (88) than any active pitcher under 27. And the Elias Sports Bureau reports he's just the fifth pitcher to debut in the last quarter-century and reach 1,000 strikeouts before turning 27. (The others: Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood.)

 

But the real reason C.C. is on this list -- aside from that snub in the pay-to-watch survey -- is simple: He's only getting better. He's striking out more hitters (9.05 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And he's walking fewer hitters (1.6 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And that's what aces -- especially underrated aces -- are made of.

 

No. 6 -- Carl Crawford

 

Joining the Devil Rays isn't exactly the same thing as joining the witness protection program. But it's close enough in Crawford's case.

 

Has anybody noticed that this guy has become the first player since Rogers Hornsby to increase his batting average and home run totals five years in a row? Has anybody noticed that the only other players since 1900 to match his 2006 numbers in batting average (.305), stolen bases (58) and home runs (18) were Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan? Has anybody noticed he's on pace to become the only player besides Ty Cobb to reach 1,000 hits, 300 steals and 100 triples before he even turns 28?

 

Yeah, didn't think so (outside of those 29 general managers who would love to trade for him). Well, we sure did blow his cover, didn't we?

 

 

No. 7 -- Placido Polanco

 

Polanco and his double-play partner in Detroit, Carlos Guillen, probably both should have made this team. But if I'd included everybody who deserved to make it, we would've blown a hole in cyberspace.

 

So why Polanco? Because, when I was mulling over this list and brought up Polanco's name, one scout's instant reply was: "He should be your captain."

 

Players like Placido Polanco operate so far below the radar screen, you need a submarine to keep track of them. But since he arrived in Detroit on June 10, 2005, and got his chance to play every day, he has struck out less (only 49 times) than any player in baseball who has been to the plate as often as he has. And the only AL players with higher batting averages than his (.317) since then are Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Vladimir Guerrero. Ever heard of them?

 

The best way to describe Polanco, though, isn't with any number. It's with that word, "winner." He's one of those "glue" players. He glues your team together with all those little things he does. And the 2006-07 Tigers are a walking testimonial to that. Then again, so is his inclusion on this prestigious list.

 

No. 8 -- Kevin Youkilis

 

When a guy has been a star in "Moneyball," and then becomes an everyday player for the Red Sox, you wouldn't think it would even be possible for him to be a candidate for an all-underrated anything team. So for Youkilis to make this squad, it might have to rank as the greatest achievement in his whole career.

 

But in case you haven't been paying attention, this fellow has turned into much more than just "The Greek God of Walks." The only AL first baseman outslugging him is Justin Morneau. Nobody beats him in OPS, batting average, runs scored or multihit games. And one AL executive wanted to make sure we noticed what an underrated defender he is -- so now that he mentions it, Youkilis hasn't made an error at first since last July.

 

Nevertheless, he still gets overshadowed by just about every position player around him, and by half the other first basemen in the league. And you'd be amazed how often "overshadowed" translates to "underrated" when you're writing columns like this one.

 

 

No. 9 -- Joe Nathan

 

What Johan Santana is to the front end of Twins games, Nathan is to the back end. Since the day he arrived in Minnesota in 2004, he's been kind of the Mariano Rivera of the Great Lakes. But has anybody caught on to that -- except the hitters?

 

Nathan has converted 92 percent of his save opportunities (blowing just 11 saves in 143 chances). He has punched out nearly two hitters (301 altogether) for every one who has gotten a hit (155). And his WHIP (.97 baserunners per inning) beats any closer's in his league since then.

 

I was tempted to put his side-wheeling set-up man, Pat Neshek, on this team instead. But Joe Nathan is one of the most unpublicized, unhittable, totally dependable closers on earth. And nobody knows it. But with any luck, they do now.

 

 

No. 10 -- Travis Hafner

 

Hafner's Indians compadre, Grady Sizemore, would have been awarded this final roster spot if he hadn't fouled up his underratedness by making the cover of Sports Illustrated. And even Hafner was a borderline call, just because his nickname (Pronk) has gotten so much attention.

 

Yeah, America has heard of him. Yeah, America knows he can thump a little. But most of America still hasn't comprehended how good he is. Heck, I rated him the third-most underrated DH of all time in the book.

 

Who owns the best on-base percentage (.420) and OPS (1.019) in the whole American League since 2004? The Pronkster. Who's the only hitter besides Albert Pujols to have a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage and 100 RBIs in each of the last three seasons? The Pronkster.

 

So what am I saying? That this fellow is a masher in the same stratosphere as Pujols, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero and Manny Ramirez. Except they hog all the "SportsCenter" time, while Hafner just monopolizes the All-Nickname Team. And that, ladies and gentlemen, may be the ultimate prescription for underratedness.

 

His underrated list.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Listening to Jayson Stark on Mike & Mike in the morning.

 

-Stark lists Sandy Koufax as overrated, citing the first half of his career. The problem is that Koufax was a bonus baby when he came in. That meant the Dodgers had to place him on their MLB roster immediately upon his signing, for two seasons. At the age Koufax came in, most players are in the minors. Should Koufax get penalized for that?

 

-There was talk of rating Dimaggio as the most overrated, but all agreed that would be sacrilegious. Isn't that exactly an indication that a player is overrated?

[Guest George's Box]

I have a hard time calling Pete Rose overrated. The rest of your overrated picks are pretty good, though.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I have a hard time calling Pete Rose overrated. The rest of your overrated picks are pretty good, though.

He's overrated because fans in Philadelphia are absolutely convinced they never would have won the World Series in 1980 if it wasn't for Rose's pure hustle, grit and determination. He was a proven WINNER~! Never mind that the first year the Phils acquired him, they finished fourth. Never mind that he hit eight home runs COMBINED in five years as our first baseman. That's the portion of his career that's overrated. Prime years in Cincinnati? Great player.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

That underrated list is pretty good. I don't consider Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Jake Peavy or Placido Polanco underrated, but the other 6 would all appear if I were making a list.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Listening to Jayson Stark on Mike & Mike in the morning.

 

-Stark lists Sandy Koufax as overrated, citing the first half of his career. The problem is that Koufax was a bonus baby when he came in. That meant the Dodgers had to place him on their MLB roster immediately upon his signing, for two seasons. At the age Koufax came in, most players are in the minors. Should Koufax get penalized for that?

 

-There was talk of rating Dimaggio as the most overrated, but all agreed that would be sacrilegious. Isn't that exactly an indication that a player is overrated?

 

It should be noted that Stark does mention Kouax's bonus baby status. He even drops the first two years, and the numbers don't get any better.

[Annabelle 0]

That underrated list is pretty good. I don't consider Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Jake Peavy or Placido Polanco underrated, but the other 6 would all appear if I were making a list.

 

no one gives a care about placido polanco. he's completely underated. same with guillen. but guillen gets a bit more press because he has better numbers in the flashier categories.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Does a player stop being underrated when people start calling him underrated?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

That underrated list is pretty good. I don't consider Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Jake Peavy or Placido Polanco underrated, but the other 6 would all appear if I were making a list.

 

no one gives a care about placido polanco. he's completely underated. same with guillen. but guillen gets a bit more press because he has better numbers in the flashier categories.

Why should anyone care about Polanco? He has a career OPS+ of 97. His OBP has always been driven by his batting average. He has no power and no speed. He has a nice glove, but that's about the extent of his abilities.

 

Not that I have anything against him, he's just not underrated. I'd say he's sufficiently rated.

[Failed Bridge 0]

My top ten most overrated players of all time.

1. Jim Rice

 

You do this now just to piss me off, huh?

[CanadianChris 0]

Looking at both of Stark's lists, I was really hoping Eckstein would make the overrated list, but I'll settle for him not making the underrated list.

[JohnnyBlaze 0]

Looking at both of Stark's lists, I was really hoping Eckstein would make the overrated list, but I'll settle for him not making the underrated list.

 

Yeah only people like Berman still refer to Eckstein as underrated...and think hes proven on numerous occasions he has no idea what he is talking about.