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Guest Tzar Lysergic

NFL Discussion Forumtable: 2007

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I'm just going to make a few predictions.

 

 

The Mighty Quinn wins Rookie of the Year, passes for 2500+ yards, scores 20 touchdowns, and gets the Brownies into the playoffs as a weak wild card that get squashed.

 

 

What? I really cannot justify them finishing ahead of any of the other teams in the AFC North, let alone top 6 in the AFC.

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If the Eagles use the running game,McNabb stays healthy, and the defense avoids injuries, the Eagles will take the division. I don't understand the gigantic love affair with Dallas since Romo is still a question mark, the WRs are a year older (and you KNOW Attention Whore will cause a problem this year), the offensive line is not too good, and they'll probably lose 2-3 games that they shouldn't due to coaching (Phillips is NOT a good head coach, and they're putting a lot on the shoulders of a rookie playcaller in Garrett.)

 

If the Saints defense is a bit better this year, I think they're the NFC favorite.

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I guess I have more faith in Derek Anderson. Way I see it, Derek Anderson will get 4-5 games at the very least, then it'll be Charlie Frye, if Anderson fails, with that many. If Quinn comes in, it's just for two games or so to end the season.

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Pressure from the fans and Anderson sucking in his first three starts will change things. Frye will probably go out with an injury, or just suck goat balls when he comes in after Anderson throws his 11th pick in three games. ESPN will put the pressure on and many people will be wondering why Quinn isn't starting.

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They have been moving towards a trend of having their star rookie quarterback sit at least half a season to learn the offense as opposed to throwing them to the wolves. The only guys in recent history I remember that started relatively soon was Vince Young.

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As a Bears fan...I make this plea to the front office.

 

PAY LANCE BRIGGS WHAT HE IS WORTH! Having a solid outside linebacker presence takes a lot off the shoulders of Uhrlacher. But yet...I look to the Roosevelt Colvin and Warrick Holman situations and realize that's probably not going to happen.

 

The division is still down...so the Bears I think have an excellent chance to repeat as division champs and a good shot at winning the conference again.

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Guest •

The second-best linebacker on the team isn't worth seven million and two hundred thousand dollars? Come on. This guy's a moron. Take that and go for the big payday next year, in case $7.2MM isn't putting food on the table. Bear in mind (har har) that Briggs wasn't a first-rounder, so maybe it's possible that Lovie Smith's new and improved coaching staff can sculpt another good outside linebacker out of a less-heralded draft pick. At any rate, Hillenmeyer's no slouch, though. I still haven't heard a lot of noise about Green Bay being favored to win the North beyond this board, for whatever it's worth.

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Guest Tzar Lysergic

I think he'll realize that he's going to be part of a killer defense that's returning almost every piece, healthy and ready to kill. Reports are now that he's "close to signing a deal." Goody gumdrops. Kick ass again this season and get a long-term contract.

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RB Chris Perry could miss the first 6 weeks (and maybe all season) on the PUP list. I could see the Bengals cutting him after this season and just relying on a two back set of Rudi Johnson & Kenny Irons. Wonder where Perry would end up though given that he's constantly injured.

 

Marshall Faulk also handed in his retirement papers. It's amazing how sick he was from 1998 through 2001. Probably one of the Top 15 RBs of all time (maybe Top 10).

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They have been moving towards a trend of having their star rookie quarterback sit at least half a season to learn the offense as opposed to throwing them to the wolves. The only guys in recent history I remember that started relatively soon was Vince Young.

 

Well, Ben Roethlisberger and Kyle Boller come to mind as well, but neither of them had two guys (Anderson, Frye) to leapfrog to get into the starting role.

 

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Guest Vitamin X

Wow, took a while for Faulk to make it official.

 

Jesus, that guy was without a doubt one of the most dangerous weapons I'd ever seen put on a football uniform. I don't remember my team ever facing a guy that I was genuinely worried every time he touched the ball like Faulk, other than maybe Barry Sanders, but I'd always figured we'd beat the Lions without a problem.

 

Don't forget Faulk also had a decent run with Indy for a couple years before being traded to the Rams as well.

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Wow, took a while for Faulk to make it official.

 

Jesus, that guy was without a doubt one of the most dangerous weapons I'd ever seen put on a football uniform. I don't remember my team ever facing a guy that I was genuinely worried every time he touched the ball like Faulk, other than maybe Barry Sanders, but I'd always figured we'd beat the Lions without a problem.

 

Don't forget Faulk also had a decent run with Indy for a couple years before being traded to the Rams as well.

 

I remember watching Faulk's San Diego State against Ty Detmer's BYU. Nothing says awesome like a game that ends in a 52-52 tie at the end of regulation. Faulk has always been dangerous. ALWAYS.

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Words don't really put how good Faulk was into perspective. Players like that are not to be described, as descriptions only take away from what they did on the field.

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They have been moving towards a trend of having their star rookie quarterback sit at least half a season to learn the offense as opposed to throwing them to the wolves. The only guys in recent history I remember that started relatively soon was Vince Young.

 

Here's a look from 1998 through the present.

1998

- Peyton Manning: Started Week 1 on.

- Ryan Leaf: Started Week 1 on.

- Charlie Batch: Started Week 3 on (over Scott Mitchell and Frank Reich).

- Brian Griese: Sat behind John Elway (and Bubby Brister).

- Matt Hasselbeck: Sat behind Brett Favre.

 

1999

- Tim Couch: Started Week 2 on (over Ty Detmer).

- Donovan McNabb: Started Week 9 on (Attempted 11 passes in Weeks 2 and 3 though).

- Akili Smith: Started Week 2 through 8 and got injured IIRC.

- Daunte Culpepper: Sat behind Jeff George and Randall Cunningham.

- Cade McNown: Started Weeks 5-8 and 15-17 (Over Jim Miller and Shane Matthews).

- Shaun King: Started Weeks 13-17 (Over Trent Dilfer).

- Aaron Brooks: Sat behind Brett Favre.

 

2000

- Chad Pennington: Sat behind Vinny Testaverde.

- Chris Redman: Sat behind Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer.

- Marc Bulger: Sat behind Kurt Warner.

- Tom Brady: Sat behind Drew Bledsoe.

 

2001

- Michael Vick: Started Weeks 4, 12, 16, and 17 (Over Chris Chandler).

- Drew Brees: Sat behind Doug Flutie but started Week 8.

- Quincy Carter: Started Weeks 12-17 (Over Anthony Wright, Ryan Leaf, and Clint Stoerner).

- Chris Weinke: Started Week 1 on.

- A.J. Feeley: Sat behind Donovan McNabb (Did start Week 17).

 

2002

- David Carr: Started Week 1 on.

- Joey Harrington: Started Week 3 on (Over Mike McMahon).

- Patrick Ramsey: Started Weeks 5-7 and 14-17 (Over Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel).

- Josh McCown: Sat behind Jake Plummer.

- David Garrard: Sat behind Mark Brunell (Did start Week 17).

 

2003

- Carson Palmer: Sat behind Jon Kitna.

- Byron Leftwich: Started Week 4 on (Over Mark Brunell).

- Kyle Boller: Started Weeks 1 - 10 (Over Anthony Wright and Chris Redman).

- Rex Grossman: Sat behind Kordell Stewart and Chris Chandler (But started Weeks 15-17).

- Chris Simms: Sat behind Brad Johnson and Shaun King.

 

2004

- Eli Manning: Started Weeks 11-17 (Over Kurt Warner).

- Philip Rivers: Sat behind Drew Brees.

- Ben Roethlisberger: Started Week 2 on (Over Tommy Maddox).

- J.P. Losman: Sat behind Drew Bledsoe.

- Matt Schaub: Sat behind Michael Vick (Started Weeks 16-17).

 

2005

- Alex Smith: Started Week 5 on (Over Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey).

- Aaron Rodgers: Sat behind Brett Favre.

- Jason Campbell: Sat behind Mark Brunell.

- Charlie Frye: Started Weeks 13-17 (Over Trent Dilfer).

- Andrew Walter: Sat behind Kerry Collins.

- Kyle Orton: Started Week 1 on.

 

2006

- Vince Young: Started Weeks 2-17 (Had 20 attempts in Week 2).

- Matt Leinart: Started Weeks 5-16 (Over Kurt Warner).

- Jay Cutler: Started Weeks 13-17 (Over Jake Plummer).

- Tarvaris Jackson: Started Weeks 15-17 (Over Brad Johnson).

- Bruce Gradkowski: Started Weeks 5-14 (Over Chris Simms and Tim Rattay).

 

Overall, I think that while players "sitting for half the season" may be true in some cases, it's equally true that some QBs are starting right from the get go or early on in the season. Also, many of the QBs who "sat" were behind good QBs at the time so the need to be thrown in early wasn't as pressing.

 

The only QBs who "started over the latter half of the season" or longer in the last 5 years were: Josh McCown, David Garrard, Carson Palmer, Rex Grossman, Chris Simms, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, J.P. Losman, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, Jay Cutler, and Tarvaris Jackson (15 QBs).

 

On the flipside were: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Bruce Gradkowski (11 QBs).

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First of all, how many of those who started early only did so because of injury to the original starter? The only cases that I really count are the ones who had absolutely no answer at the spot beforehand like Peyton and the Colts. Furthermore I did imply that the trend was a recent one, going back to 1998 (a full ten years ago) is quite contradictory to that statement. Look at the past THREE years, you have more people sitting than starting.

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Guest Vitamin X

I think in general, it does seem like the idea has been to sit a quarterback for some time unless they had no answer, as Porter said. This is definitely a much more recent trend, given the success of guys like McNabb, Palmer, and Brees who sat before they started. Almost every single QB thrown to the wolves from the get go have had a terrible career, or didn't excel until their second or third year. A perfect example of this was John Elway, by the way, who had a Leaf-esque rookie year followed up by his HOF career.

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Guest Tzar Lysergic

It's QB exclusive. A position that important can't be learned at the pro level in one offseason.

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Words don't really put how good Faulk was into perspective. Players like that are not to be described, as descriptions only take away from what they did on the field.

 

 

Agree. He was one of the best PLAYERS to play football. Maybe not the greatest running back or greatest recieving running back, but one of the better all around players.

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First of all, how many of those who started early only did so because of injury to the original starter? The only cases that I really count are the ones who had absolutely no answer at the spot beforehand like Peyton and the Colts. Furthermore I did imply that the trend was a recent one, going back to 1998 (a full ten years ago) is quite contradictory to that statement. Look at the past THREE years, you have more people sitting than starting.

 

It'd still be 6 QBs early vs. 10 QBs late, not an overwhelming majority. Also, just because the starting QB gets injured shouldn't preclude a rookie from not being considered a true starting QB as a rookie. Teams that have to depend on a rookie QB from the get go (ala Harrington or Carr) are a rarity as is, so of course the QBs sitting or starting later in the season would be a norm.

 

None of the QBs drafted in the past 3 years were asked to come in and turn around the franchise immediately like a Peyton Manning, Joey Harrington, or David Carr. So to discount any rookies starting due to injury basically says, any QB drafted will be looked at to sit unless the team explicitly states on draft day or during training camp that he's gonna be starting from Day 1.

 

I'd be curious to see what constitutes your definition of a true rookie QB and who comprises it. Does JaMarcus Russell count even though Andrew Walter and Josh McCown could start over him? Brady Quinn with Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson ahead of him?

 

The only guys I could feasibly come off the top of my head with in regards to your criteria within the past 6 years (excluding 2007) are Joey Harrington, David Carr, and Kyle Boller. That's 3 QBs out of 72 total QBs drafted and they were from 2002/2003.

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Guest •
- Peyton Manning: Started Week 1 on.

- Kyle Orton: Started Week 1 on.

fire and the passion

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Guest Vitamin X

The biggest problem with asking QBs to come in and start right away is that the teams asking said QBs to do so don't have the talent for them to do anything with. A rookie QB typically can't make his team better, a veteran QB can. This is the reason why guys like BenRo, Palmer, and even Manning (Harrison and the beginnings of the current Indy o-line were already in place when he was drafted) can come in and have success right away. Carr never had an offensive line, and Harrington never had much consistency to work with on offense in Detroit, since his receivers kept breaking their collarbones and his running game was on and off, and there was a lot of turnover on the already average offensive line.

 

In short, a quarterback is a direct product of the pieces you place around him, with very few exceptions. This is all the more true in a younger one.

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