The College Football Thread 10/10 - 10/14

[Vern Gagne]

Any guesses what the BCS standing will look like tomorrow?

[CanadianChris]

Any guesses what the BCS standing will look like tomorrow?

1. Ohio State

2. South Florida

3. Boston College

4. LSU

5. South Carolina

6. Virginia Tech

7. Oregon

8. Oklahoma

9. Arizona State

10. USC or Cal

[MFer]

You've gotta be kidding me. Ohio St. at #1? The team whose best win is...Purdue?...Washington? And none of their remaining opponents are exactly world-beaters. Hell, even South Florida has wins over Auburn and West Virginia to hang their hat on. I mean, I guess they deserve it but still...this is one fucked up season.

[Hawk 34]

It's not Ohio State's fault the Big Ten is so atrocious.

[teke184]

Ohio State gets a big boost from the human polls, although their computer polls will be middling.

 

South Florida likely gets #1 across the board on the computer polls. (They were #2 on most of them going into this week. Between a thrashing of UCF and an LSU loss, they likely move up in many of them to #1.)

[cabbageboy]

What is this, U of L actually showing up to play tonight? I was right....the fans here have become such a hindrance to this team that they play better on the road away from the booing and calling for Kragthorpe's head. And to be honest as much as I've been pimping Cincy this year, they got exposed tonight. Now if U of L can simply beat WVU and USF both on the road we can make those BCS plans, haha.

 

USF and BC will be 2 and 3 I'm assuming but I think both will lose their next game. BC is certainly going down against VT, and I will go out on a minor limb and say Rutgers stops sucking long enough to beat USF.

[Jaxxson Mayhem]

Wow. What a great night of college football.

 

 

The last drive from Cal was insane. I was sure they were gonna win with a go ahead TD. That QB for Cal having a meltdown and holding the ball and losing the game was fucking insane. I couldn't believe it.

 

 

The best news from tonight is that Florida's still in it!

[MFer]

I'm interested to see where Kansas ends up in the polls and how far they can go. They've played a buncha scrubs at home, but they blew 'em all out. Beating Kansas St. on the road is a pretty good win. They don't have to play Texas or Oklahoma either; their toughest remaining game (other than the possible Big 12 title game) is Missouri at home. I don't expect them to run the table, but this is about as favorable a situation as they can get.

[Bored]

Looks like ASU will stay undefeated to keep it at five BCS conference teams. They're off next week and then we'll find out if their for real with a four game stretch of vs. Cal, at Oregon, at UCLA, and then vs. USC on Thanksgiving.

[Guest]

My BCS projections...

 

1. South Florida

2. Ohio State (they've played nobody. They are going to get killed in the computer polls)

3. Boston College

4. LSU

5. Arizona State

6. Oklahoma

7. Oregon

8. South Carolina

9. Virginia Tech

10. Cal

 

It'll stay similar the week after, but SC will take 10th and one of the ACC teams will drop out.

[iggymcfly]

Here's my Top 25:

 

(Previous week's ranking in parenthesis)

1. Ohio State 7-0 (2)

2. USF 7-0 (5)

3. LSU 6-1 (1)

4. Oklahoma 6-1 (8)

5. Oregon 5-1 (4)

6. Kentucky 6-1 (17)

7. Boston College 7-0 (7)

8. South Carolina 6-1 (9)

9. West Virginia 5-1 (10)

10. California 5-1 (3)

11. Arizona State 7-0 (16)

12. Florida 4-2 (12)

13. Kansas 6-0 (13)

14. Missouri 5-1 (6)

15. USC 5-1 (14)

16. Auburn 5-2 (19)

17. Virginia Tech 6-1 (18)

18. Tennessee 4-2 (20)

19. Cincinnatti 6-1 (11)

20. Kansas State 4-2 (31)

21. Texas 5-2 (23)

22. Georgia 5-2 (24)

23. Penn State 5-2 (NR)

24. Michigan 5-2 (32)

25. Texas Tech 6-1 (NR)

 

Close: Virginia, Boise State, Illinois, Rutgers, Alabama, Hawaii, UCLA

[Bored]

Coaches Poll

 

Ohio State gets 56 of the 59 first place votes, LSU drops to #5, Cal drops below Oregon, USC drops two more spots.

[Big Ol' Smitty]

As a Kentucky fan who was on the field in '03 when LSU threw that hail mary (and a host of other agonizing losses), last night's game was very cathartic. It was made all the sweeter by the fact that I was watching it in the context of my friend's bachelor party in Louisville, so I was surrounded by mopey UofL fans.

[CanadianChris]

South Florida is ranked #2 in the last AP poll. LSU dropped to 5th.

 

Link

 

Shouldn't the BCS standings have been released by now?

 

 

[Bored]

I'm assuming it's the same deal as last year where they are announced on FOX after the games. I'm not sure if it will be after the early or late games though as they do have one late game but this isn't a doubleheader week for them.

 

Right now it seems very likely the Top 5 will be Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, LSU, Oklahoma.

[CanadianChris]

Could South Florida be #1? Menafee said we'd be surprised at who was at the top of the rankings.

 

EDIT: Guess not; top 5 are as Bored said they would be.

[Bored]

Just a false tease, Top 5 as expected.

 

BCS Top 25

 

1. Ohio State

2. South Florida

3. Boston College

4. LSU

5. Oklahoma

6. South Carolina

7. Kentucky

8. Arizona State

9. West Virginia

10. Oregon

11. Virginia Tech

12. California

13. Kansas

14. USC

15. Florida

16. Missouri

17. Auburn

18. Hawaii

19. Virginia

20. Georgia

21. Tennessee

22. Texas

23. Cincinnati

24. Texas Tech

25. Michigan

[Kinetic]

Terry Bradshaw compares USF to Boise State. This is the problem with having NFL guys analyze this stuff.

[CanadianChris]

Computer rankings:

 

1. South Florida (1.00)

2. LSU (.93)

3. South Carolina (.86)

4. Kentucky (.85)

t5. Ohio State (.83)

t5. Arizona State (.83)

7. Boston College (.82)

8. Virginia Tech (.66)

9. West Virginia (.64)

10. Oklahoma (.55)

11. Auburn (.53)

12. Oregon (.50)

t13. Cal (.48)

t13. Virginia (.48)

15. Missouri (.43)

 

The computers have USC (.09) and Hawaii (.06) right near the bottom.

[cabbageboy]

Bradshaw isn't alone in that comparison. I recently talked to a few other people who seem to think USF is somehow this big Cinderella like Boise St. was last year. The irony is of course that Boise wasn't even a Cinderella, since they have been a brilliant program for several years (hell they were unbeaten when they played U of L in the Liberty Bowl in 2004, and U of L barely escaped there....and U of L in 2004 was better than the lesser OU team Boise beat).

 

But anyway, how the hell is USF like Boise? 1. USF is all over national TV, having played Auburn and WVU on ESPN and they will have high profile games with Rutgers, U of L, Cincy all upcoming. 2. USF is in a MAJOR conference while Boise is in the WAC and basically must go unbeaten to make it to the BCS. 3. USF is in a big city like Tampa, in a football crazy state...whereas Boise is in friggin Idaho.

 

Anyway, I personally don't think it will matter since I don't see USF being able to handle the bullseye on them of being a #2 team. I'd be mildly surprised if they even won this week at Rutgers since Rutgers will be playing for their season and needs the win.

[Edwin MacPhisto]

I really want to find out what absurd algorithms are ranking Virginia #13 in the computers, and then I want to go make out with those algorithms. Great weekend of games, and I'm getting fired up for BC/USF for the title. Destiny!

[iggymcfly]

I really want to find out what absurd algorithms are ranking Virginia #13 in the computers, and then I want to go make out with those algorithms. Great weekend of games, and I'm getting fired up for BC/USF for the title. Destiny!

 

It's pretty simple. They can't account for margin of victory in the BCS so they have no idea that UVA was lucky as fuck to get by UConn and GT or that they got pounded by Wyoming. The Sagarin predictor (which does rate MOV heavily) has Virginia 39th.

[iggymcfly]

Boise State and Nevada are tied 51-51 on ESPN after the first OT if anyone wants to flip over.

[Jaxxson Mayhem]

Wow.

 

 

Boise State 69

Nevada 61

 

 

4th OT

[cabbageboy]

I actually agree that margin of victory shouldn't be counted in the BCS. If someone is lucky as hell at some point that luck will run out anyway. If not, then you have Ohio St. in 2002.

[Jaxxson Mayhem]

Game.

 

 

Boise State wins after Nevada can't convert on the 2 pt conversion.

[Maztinho]

I actually agree that margin of victory shouldn't be counted in the BCS. If someone is lucky as hell at some point that luck will run out anyway. If not, then you have Ohio St. in 2002.

 

Kinda Wisconsin this year until their luck ran out? Hawaii I'm looking your way next.

[iggymcfly]

I actually agree that margin of victory shouldn't be counted in the BCS. If someone is lucky as hell at some point that luck will run out anyway. If not, then you have Ohio St. in 2002.

 

Yes, because with a huge sample to work with like 12 games and with teams playing such tremendously similar schedules, we can afford to completely throw out meaningless differences like whether a team's been winning their games by 40 or winning them by 4. It's not really a matter of dealing with the lucky teams like 2002 OSU. It's more about seeing how good a mid-major is that played a weak schedule or separating the close one-loss teams that play similar schedules.

 

What if Virginia Tech runs the table from here on out? Should they have a chance at the national title? After all, their only loss would be to LSU and they'd have some decent wins in the ACC. Or should the fact that the loss was by 41 points make a little bit of difference. Virginia Tech's tied for 8th in the computer rankings right now, ahead of Cal, Oregon, and Oklahoma precisely because the computers aren't given that information. Likewise, Ohio State's tied for 5th behind South Carolina and Kentucky because the computers don't know how well Ohio State played in their wins this year. I just think that when you're trying to pick 2 teams out of 119 based on 12 games, it's stupid to throw out that much relevant data.

[mfn]

Ohio State #1? I couldn't be happier.

[Edwin MacPhisto]

There's good balance between the computers and human polls in theory, but the human polls are still way too frequently predicated on "#5 lost? I guess 6-10 are moving up" and similar foibles. I don't think there's anything intrinsically wrong with the BCS computers not factoring in margin of victory because that's one of the things human polls seem to care about most.

 

Of course, that all assumes that the human voters are making reasonable decisions. I'm still impressed by how pitifully the Harris Poll voters fall into the same traps as the coaches' poll. I'd like to see a season or two with a small committee doing the rankings a la NCAA tournament selection.