The College Football Thread 11/13 - 11/17

[iggymcfly 0]

Well, looks like those Big XII games should be real playoff games now (if OU beats Texas Tech and Missouri beat Kansas State). Missouri/Kansas is now basically a national quarterfinal and OU vs. the winner would be a semi. Also, OSU, WVU, and ASU are all just an LSU loss from being right in the middle of the title hunt.

[Jorge Gorgeous 0]

So Oregon is going to loose the game soley because Dixon isn't in there? If that's the case than Dixon should be awarded the Heisman even if he is done for the season.

 

This, I think, has some truth to it.

[iggymcfly 0]

Figured I'd make some updated bowl projections just for the hell of it with the BCS games plus some other notables listed:

 

BCS Championship: LSU (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1)

Rose Bowl: USC (10-2) vs. Michigan (9-3)

Orange Bowl: Clemson (10-3) vs. West Virginia (10-2)

Fiesta Bowl: Missouri (11-2) vs. Cincinnatti (10-2)

Sugar Bowl: Florida (9-3) vs. Boise State (11-1)

 

Cotton Bowl: Texas (10-2) vs. Auburn (8-4)

Holiday Bowl: Arizona State (10-2) vs. Kansas (11-1)

Capital One Bowl: Ohio State (10-2) vs. Georgia (10-3)

[iggymcfly 0]

When I was doing those projections, I realized something: We're really not that far from seeing USC play for the championship. Here's what it would take:

 

1) USC wins out

2) LSU loses to Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, or Florida

3) Ohio State loses to Michigan

4) West Virginia loses to Cincinnatti or UConn

 

That's it. The Trojans only need 3 (relatively reasonable) events to happen to get in if they win out. They'd definitely get the nod over a 12-0 Hawaii or an 11-2 LSU that lost on the last day of the season and no one wants to see two Big XII teams play for the title.

[CanadianChris 0]

So Oregon is probably going to fall from the championship game to, what, the Sun Bowl? The Emerald Bowl? Not good times.

 

And after seeing it for at least a dozen times and being sufficiently bugged by it...there's only one "t" in Cincinnati.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

In any scenario where Cincinnati doesn't upset WVU or Michigan doesn't upset OSU, I'd expect the Fiesta to be all over Arizona State, if they're available.

 

Oregon may have a really tough lot here. Even if they can win one of their last two, I'm still not sure the Holiday Bowl would take them without Dixon as the main attraction.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

If Hawaii goes 12-0... which bowl game do they get the invite to?

[CanadianChris 0]

If Hawaii goes 12-0... which bowl game do they get the invite to?

Well, the WAC doesn't have any guarantees as far as which team in the standings gets slotted where. So, assuming they don't crash the BCS, you'll probably be seeing them in the Hawaii Bowl again.

 

If they do somehow manage to qualify for the BCS, they'll probably be the last team picked, since they would be assumed to not travel well, which means they'd be looking at the Sugar Bowl.

[Bored 0]

If Hawaii wins out they are a lock to end up the Top 14 which will give them an automatic bid. Boise State still has a realistic chance as well if they win out.

[cabbageboy 0]

USC is still behind Georgia and VA Tech though among 2 loss teams. Are we assuming they would jump people if they beat ASU? I might see USC winning that one and going 10-2 and going to the Rose Bowl, but that's about it.

 

Also, taking a look at those BCS predictions would WVU really make the BCS at 10-2? I think they would have to win out or be screwed. The team I have a feeling will really end up screwed is Kansas though. If they lose to Missouri they not only lose out on the national title but also can't even win the Big 12 north.

 

Oh, and Boise St. has almost no shot at the BCS even if they beat Hawaii. Currently Boise is #18, so they would have to rise 6 more spots to make the BCS.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Because it was a crappy Wednesday night game no one cared about, I completely missed that Miami of Ohio beat Akron 7-0, with the only score coming on a fumble return. Awesome.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Oh, and Boise St. has almost no shot at the BCS even if they beat Hawaii. Currently Boise is #18, so they would have to rise 6 more spots to make the BCS.

Well, one of the teams ahead of them is Hawaii, and 4 of them are ACC teams, at least three of which are guaranteed to pick up at least one more loss (BC vs. Clemson this weekend, UVA/VT next weekend, then the championship game). If they win out they'll probably hit #14 by default. USC, Georgia, or Oregon losing again--none of which are too unlikely--would push them up even more and get them extremely close to magic #12.

[Hawk 34 0]

Because it was a crappy Wednesday night game no one cared about, I completely missed that Miami of Ohio beat Akron 7-0, with the only score coming on a fumble return. Awesome.

 

I cared! I just figured no one else did and didn't bother to mention. I might consider a trip to Toronto or Mobile, depending where they end up bowling

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Whoa...

 

Does anybody else realize that Graham Harrell of Texas Tech has the following stats?

 

421/572 (73.60%) for 4,878 yards (8.53 YPA) and 43 TD vs. 12 INT (2.10%)...

 

Already looks like Mike Leach and Harrell want a chance at surpassing Colt's yardage total last year with an outside shot at the TD mark. I can't decide which is more impressive, the nearly 74% completion rate with that many attempts or the low INT rate with that many attempts.

 

Irregardless of whether it's a QB friendly system or not, it still takes a ton of talent to put up those kind of numbers.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Leach already got the yardage total in '03 with BJ Symons, who actually threw for 5,833 and 52 TDs. I've never watched enough Texas Tech football to figure out why they're so mediocre year-in, year-out, despite those consistently massive numbers. Inflated by cupcakes through a scheme not good enough for the big boys, I guess.

 

It's pretty fascinating, really. He had Kliff Kingsbury from 00-02, Symons in '03, Sonny Cumbie in '04, Cody Hodges in '05, and now Harrell the past two seasons. The success of three guys in a row who started just one season apiece suggests that it's not that impressive to succeed in the system, and the strong work from the first two QBs implies that it hasn't been dependent on Leach recruiting a particular type of player, either. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Washington State or UCLA, both likely to have vacancies after this year, bring Leach out west to try his hand against some Pac-10 defenses.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Leach already got the yardage total in '03 with BJ Symons, who actually threw for 5,833 and 52 TDs. I've never watched enough Texas Tech football to figure out why they're so mediocre year-in, year-out, despite those consistently massive numbers. Inflated by cupcakes through a scheme not good enough for the big boys, I guess.

 

Interesting. I was looking at Graham's game logs...

 

2006

TCU (L 12-3): 204 yards with 0 TD vs. 0 INT.

Texas A&M (W 31-27): 392 yards with 4 TD vs. 0 INT.

Texas (L 35-31): 519 yards with 3 TD vs. 1 INT.

Oklahoma (L 34-24): 250 yards with 2 TD vs. 1 INT.

 

2007

Oklahoma State (L 49-45): 646 yards with 5 TD vs. 0 INT.

Texas A&M (W 35-7): 425 yards with 3 TD vs. 0 INT.

Texas (L 59-43): 466 yards with 5 TD vs. 1 INT.

 

In all of the above games that they lost, Texas Tech was able to score (except against TCU) but their defense seemed to be the problem. Harrell also seems to have trouble with Colorado (1 TD vs. 3 INT in '06 and 3 TD vs. 4 INT in '07) and Missouri (3 TD vs. 2 INT in '06 and 1 TD vs. 4 INT in '07).

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Well, they did fire the defensive coordinator immediately after the Oklahoma State loss this year, which is fairly understandable; it's pretty inexcusable to pass for 650 yards and lose a game. After looking at a few more box scores, the speed and scoring ability of the offense seems to work as a negative, not leaving the defense much time to recover. Their longest scoring drive of the Texas game was 3:34, and Texas held the ball for 40 minutes. Time of possession averages about -7 minutes for Texas Tech in the half-dozen box scores against conference opponents I looked at, which is pretty low.

[iggymcfly 0]

USC is still behind Georgia and VA Tech though among 2 loss teams. Are we assuming they would jump people if they beat ASU? I might see USC winning that one and going 10-2 and going to the Rose Bowl, but that's about it.

 

Also, taking a look at those BCS predictions would WVU really make the BCS at 10-2? I think they would have to win out or be screwed. The team I have a feeling will really end up screwed is Kansas though. If they lose to Missouri they not only lose out on the national title but also can't even win the Big 12 north.

 

Oh, and Boise St. has almost no shot at the BCS even if they beat Hawaii. Currently Boise is #18, so they would have to rise 6 more spots to make the BCS.

 

USC would easily jump Texas and Virginia Tech in the BCS if they win out. If Georgia wins the SEC East and then beats LSU, they're definitely in over USC, but if they don't win their division, I'm pretty sure the pollsters would rearrange on the last day of the season to make sure they get in.

 

As for West Virginia, as long as Ohio State loses, I think they've got a pretty decent shot to get an at-large at 10-2, especially if they lose to Cincy and finish wiht a win over UConn. They'd likely be the highest ranked at-large team available at that point and if there are two really unattractive auto-bid teams, the Orange Bowl will select the last at-large team. I think the regional concerns would be enough to put WVU over the top compared to someone like ASU.

 

Finally, the thing about Boise State is that they also get an automatic berth if they're in the Top 16 as long as they're ahead of a BCS champion. If Clemson wins the ACC at 10-3, they fulfill that easily. Even if all the BCS champions finish ahead of them, they've got a pretty good shot to reach the Top 12 as long as Hawaii beats Nevada and doesn't come into that showdown with a loss.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Reminder...

 

Hawai'i plays Nevada tonight on ESPN2 at 11:00 PM ET. I've heard that Colt should start also.

[cabbageboy 0]

This stuff with figuring out who is going where in the BCS is mind numbing. I hadn't thought of Boise finishing higher in the BCS standings than some jabroni ACC winner (though that's a moot point if VT wins the conf.). Boise might also finish higher than a Big East team if WVU doesn't win the league, though I think a 10-2 Cincy team would likely move up.

 

USC is currently #11 in the BCS. There's no way in hell they can move ahead of about 8 other teams with only 2 games left. Why assume they are going to simply waltz in and beat Arizona St.?

[Bored 0]

USC doesn't need to move up is the point. If they run the table the Fiesta Bowl will jump all over them. Of course if Oregon loses another game then USC would win the Pac-10 in that scenario and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

I'll run through the Pac-10 most likely scenarios at this point.

 

If USC and Oregon run the table: Oregon goes to the Rose, USC to the Fiesta.

 

If Oregon and Arizona State run the table: ASU goes to the Rose, Oregon to the Fiesta.

 

If USC runs the table and Oregon loses another game: USC goes to the Rose, ASU goes to the Fiesta (if they are still ranked in the Top 14)

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Then, of course, there's the conference doomsday scenario: ASU beats USC, and Oregon loses another game. At least one three-loss at-large will make the BCS this year, but that second Pac-10 team would probably be clinging desperately to the #13 or 14 spot, competing with ACC teams, Illinois, Hawaii/Boise, and one or more SEC teams (Tennessee, Georgia, and Kentucky, depending on the results of upcoming games). There are so many great ways the BCS can get fucked up this year.

 

cabbageboy:

I hadn't thought of Boise finishing higher in the BCS standings than some jabroni ACC winner (though that's a moot point if VT wins the conf.)

Basically, if whoever wins UVA/VT wins the ACC, the champ will not be below Boise or Hawaii. However, BC and Clemson could each win the conference despite losing a third game--Clemson has South Carolina, and BC has Miami--which would be good times for the mid-majors.

[Bored 0]

Ya, I don't see a three loss Pac-10 team getting a BCS bid either.

 

The most likely conference champ to finish below Hawaii or Boise State is Michigan if they win tommorrow. I still say that Hawaii gets the Top 14 automatic bid if they finish 12-0.

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

If Florida doesn't lose the rest of the way I'd guess they have the inside track at being a 3-loss team in the BCS.

 

Man, last night's game was probably the most depressed I've ever been watching sports. What's amazing about it, is that you basically got to watch Oregon's season collapse in one play. If that moron doesn't let a touchdown pass bounce right off his numbers for an INT, it's 15-0 Ducks, and even if Dixon had gotten hurt at some point, they might have already salted it away by then. Instead, it's 8-7, then Dixon goes down, sucking all the life out of the team. And then, the Ducks couldn't even just lose 42-11 or something, they had to keep giving me hope, then punching me in the gut with turnovers. That fake punt followed by a fumble is basically how Oregon loses games in a nutshell.

 

At this point, best case scenario for the Ducks is the Stewart's injury isn't serious, they form a coherent game plan for Leaf (which should involve 30-40 carries per game for Stewart), win the next two, and ASU drops one, which adds up to a Rose Bowl berth.

 

Oh and Bored, there's another possibility: Oregon and ASU run the table, ASU goes to the title game, Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl. Unlikely, but with the way this season is going?

[iggymcfly 0]

This stuff with figuring out who is going where in the BCS is mind numbing. I hadn't thought of Boise finishing higher in the BCS standings than some jabroni ACC winner (though that's a moot point if VT wins the conf.). Boise might also finish higher than a Big East team if WVU doesn't win the league, though I think a 10-2 Cincy team would likely move up.

 

USC is currently #11 in the BCS. There's no way in hell they can move ahead of about 8 other teams with only 2 games left. Why assume they are going to simply waltz in and beat Arizona St.?

 

I don't think they'll "waltz in and beat Arizona State", but they'll probably be a slight favorite. I think there are even early lines on this game that have USC favored by 3. The point is just that they have a chance. Also, of the ten teams above them:

 

-3 are in the Big XII. If the voters wouldn't let OSU/Michigan happen for the championship, they won't let something like an Oklahoma/Kansas rematch happen no matter what. The Big XII champion's getting in, but there's no way the Big XII gets both sides of the title game.

 

-Arizona State is on USC's schedule. The Trojans can pass them just by winning.

 

-Virginia Tech's got no respect at all and will easily be passed if USC just beats ASU. A 2-loss ACC team with a 41 point loss can't make the title game over a 2-loss Pac-Ten team with USC's name value.

 

-Oregon just lost to a 4-6 Arizona and has an injured QB. They'll be falling very fast in the polls.

 

-Georgia has a difficult game left with Kentucky and could end up losing their division even if they win out. If it comes down to a 2-loss USC that's on a 4-game winning streak including a huge road win over Arizona State and a 2-loss Georgia that couldn't even win their own division, USC's going to get the nod.

 

That leaves 3 teams that have to lose: LSU, West Virginia, and Ohio State. Both West Virginia and Ohio State will be playing their toughest game of the season this week (at Cincy and at Michigan) and I picked against both of them in the Pick 'em contest. LSU will be favored in the remainder of their games, but with Arkansas a week from Saturday and a possible date with Tennessee or Florida in the SEC championship, there are no guarantees. An LSU loss is basically the only unlikely thing that has to happen to put USC in.

[iggymcfly 0]

BTW, I see this "Top 14" thing being mis-applied everywhere as if it's relevant for Boise State and Hawaii. It's not. The Top 14 qualifier is the minimum you need to be eligible for a BCS at-large slot. For example, if a team the bowls want like Notre Dame is #14, they can take them over the #8 or #9 team while they can't take them if they're #15.

 

The key numbers for mid-major conference champs are #12 and #16. #12 gives them an automatic berth no matter what happens with the rest of the field or the other champions. If they're in the Top 12 and no one's selected them when 9 spots are filled, the Sugar Bowl's required to take them no matter what. Being in the Top 16 is the qualifier if there's a BCS conference champion ranked below them. This could happen if a 10-3 Clemson wins the ACC (with a loss to South Carolina), if a 10-3 Georgia wins the SEC (with a loss to Georgia Tech), or if a 7-5 UCLA wins the Pac-Ten (with ASU losses to USC and Zona). A 9-3 Michigan's a strong possibility here as well, but it's tough to say exactly what would happen to their ranking if they beat OSU with a healthy Hart and Henne. They'd probably pass Boise this week, but would only be about 50/50 to stay above them when Boise beat Hawaii. If Boise State has to try to stay ahead of a 9-3 Michigan to get a slot, they may need Hawaii to be 10-0 when they play them.

[Fökai 0]

If Hawai'i runs the table, they will get a BCS slot. I honestly don't see a scenario where they get shut out, with all of the big conference games in the nation coming up.

[Guest Vitamin X]

Holy SHIT the BCS talk in this thread is confusing.

 

To make a fairly obvious point here, this just goes to show that this year, above and beyond any other season ever in college football, proves that there desperately needs to be a playoff season. I forget exactly who, but I think it was the AD of Florida-who just won the national championship in both football and basketball, as you guys know- who was campaigning for that over the course of the offseason, and several other SEC leaders were as well.

 

Seeing the way this season's gone, I can't see any other answer. I wonder if there's been any more talk about this since.

 

Also, considering Oregon's playing UCLA and rival Oregon St.-without Dennis Dixon- I don't think they'll win another game this year. Brady Leaf looked terrible, and the offense just generally looked lost without Dixon.

[Hawk 34 0]

Just to play devil's advocate, isn't the uncertainty of the next three weeks and all the scenarios that surround it, a playoff itself?

[Danville_Wrestling 0]

Just to play devil's advocate, isn't the uncertainty of the next three weeks and all the scenarios that surround it, a playoff itself?

 

Yea, that's the general argument (with the Big 12 being the perfect example). However, the rankings always benefit teams who are ranked high at the beginning of the season or lose early. With the BCS at least we get a "national title game" but the only time that is ever acceptable is if there are two unbeaten teams playing for the title.

 

I just can't see a playoff ever being developed for college football. First, how many teams would you include? How would they be chosen? What about all of the other "bowl" games that football programs say they need for dollars?

 

Personally, I'd love for there to be a 8-12 team playoff over a three or four week period chosen by a Selection Committee like they do for the basketball tournament. I don't care to watch 6-6 teams against 7-5 teams in bowl games that don't really mean much unless your a fan of either team. However, this imperfect system seems to be the best we're going to get for the time being because I just don't think there is a "perfect" fix or a reasonable acceptable fix for enough of the college presidents to accept.