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EVIL~! alkeiper

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Everything posted by EVIL~! alkeiper

  1. We can put those teams into two categories. One, teams that recently saw new stadiums. Cleveland, Seattle, Toronto. All three saw attendance booms when those new stadiums mixed with franchise-best win/loss records. Second are the expansion clubs, Florida, Tampa Bay, Colorado. And to nip something here before I go on, Florida saw their best attendance last year since 1997, Toronto their best since 1999. Seattle's attendance dropped to ONLY 2.7 million, fourth in the league. Cleveland built such a high drawing club that it was impossible for their attendance to remain that high. They sold out practically every game in the late 90s thanks to a new park and the first period of good Indians baseball since the 1950s. The expansion clubs drew high numbers because expansion clubs are fresh products. Just look at the Oklahoma City Hornets for a similar example of these effects. Second, people forget that baseball experienced a surge in attendance just before the baseball strike. The Colorado Rockies drawing over 4 million inflated these numbers. And for the record, baseball attendance is up 8,458 fans PER GAME from 20 years ago. That's a net increase.
  2. The point is that the lowest attendance in the NL is a full million more than it was 20 years ago. Interest in baseball was down after the strike, but it has rebounded. The minors set another attendance record last year. And revenues are through the roof. To say that interest is down despite all the evidence demonstrating it is not is just plain ignorance.
  3. It's hard to say which contract is worse. At least the Wilson contract covers him solely through his prime. Winn is already 32. Winn is a markably better player, but Wilson is a truly good defensive performer.
  4. Nascar can't possibly rate above baseball. There's a perception problem when using television ratings and average attendance figures. MLB runs over 90 games a week. Nascar holds one race a week. Of course Nascar is going to draw bigger ratings and crowds for that one race. It does not make it more popular. Same with football to a lesser extent. If an MLB team ran a 16 game schedule, would they draw bigger crowds? Absolutely. That's the appeal with baseball. Most baseball teams run games every night for at least five months. No other sport has demonstrated it can maintain that kind of interest over an extended period of time. As for regionality, let me use an example. Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates drew the league's lowest attendance, about 1.8 million. Twenty years ago, they drew 735,900. That's a heck of a drop of interest, isn't it?
  5. Is baseball a joke? 69 million fans attended MLB games last season. 41 Million fans attended minor league baseball. Another 7.5 Million attended independant league baseball games. The sport has really exploded in popularity the last five years or so, where many levels of baseball underneath the majors are getting noticed. Heck, an NCAA Baseball game is now a feasible product. And NCAA baseball is hardly a NYC product. This is the product of one person's opinion, nothing more.
  6. http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/news/2006/060227.htm The Hall held a special election for Negro League players and chose 17, including Cristobal Torriente, Biz Mackey, Louis Santop, Mule Suttles, and Willard Brown. The Hall will also induct its first female, Newark Eagles' owner Effa Manley. The Hall declined to induct Minnie Minoso and Buck O'Neil. O'Neil as always was very gracious about the decision.
  7. Canada should beat South Africa easily. They've got a roster of MLB/AAA players. South Africa has a team with one player of AA quality. As for Canada/Mexico, I've run sims and it's the most even matchup of the first round. Especially considering that Canada will doubtless choose that game for their best pitching battery. From MLB.com... A: A player is eligible to participate on a World Baseball Classic team if: * The player is a citizen of the nation the team represents. (Additionally, if a player is qualified for citizenship or to hold a passport under the laws of a nation represented by a team, but has not been granted citizenship or been issued a passport, then the player may be made eligible by WBCI upon petition by the player or team.) * The player is a permanent legal resident of the nation or territory the team represents. * The player was born in the nation or territory the team represents. * The player has one parent who is, or if deceased was, a citizen of the nation the team represents. * The player has one parent who was born in the nation or territory the team represents. Note: In the event a player appropriately appears on more than one provisional roster, he may select the team for which he wishes to play.
  8. The Dominicans can't play the US team unless both make the finals. So if the Dominicans are humiliated, it won't be against the Americans. Just about every team has lost players. The Venezuelans lost Melvin Mora yesterday. The Dominicans have so much talent that they can't possibly drop in the first round, unless the ringers on the Italian pitching staff shut them down.
  9. I can't see placing Loewen above Penn myself. Loewen's 21, and he struggled at single A Frederick, showing great stuff but iffy control. Penn's younger, and he posted tremendous peripherals at AA Bowie.
  10. And regardless of the outcome, Dave vs. Dan was a fairly innovative ad campaign. I mean, we're still talking about it.
  11. Why not use innings pitched as the sixth stat? It would discourage players from limiting pitching use like the strategy that Smell the Ratings used a few years ago.
  12. Hamels is probably too undervalued to get a fair deal in a trade at this point. His stats speak for themselves, and I had the opportunity to watch him pitch personally. When he does pitch, his stuff is spot on. That he hasn't suffered a pitching arm injury gives some hope yet. Couple this with Alfonso Soriano still refusing to move to left field this is going to be a looooooooooooooooooooong season for the Nats. Jim Bowden will be back at ESPN in 2007. Even if Lawrence never pitches an inning for the Nats, at worse they dumped Vinny Castilla to make room for a top ten prospect. Hardly a bad deal.
  13. http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/new...t=.jsp&sid=t531 Mick Foley's throwing out the first pitch at the Red Barons' home opener.
  14. That was Czech's comment before the 2005 season. I don't make predictions, but I could easily see the Cubs finishing higher than the Brewers this season. Like MiB said, it may be a year or two before the Brewers take that next step. The Cubs meanwhile had an obvious weakness with their outfield and they've addressed that somewhat. They're not great but there is no horrific sinkhole this time around.
  15. Supply and demand. There's a huge number of students working towards their teaching certifications.
  16. It's one thing to make that argument for the MVP, but the Cy Young? Having great teammates is not a pre-requisite to winning an award. To cite an example, would you deny a Cy Young to Steve Carlton in 1972? He led the league in wins, ERA, innings and strikeouts despite playing on a team that lost 97 games. A bit of extreme example, but you get the idea. I'm not a big fan of Manuel, but a franchise who would keep firing managers after 86 or 88 win seasons obviously has bigger issues than their choice of manager. I've seen that argument before, but I've never seen it work in the real world. Part of the reason is that the best teams overcome the schedule. Also, the Red Sox may have a toughter schedule, but when the Sox play the Yankees for example, someone has to win that game. I think the wild card comes from the East. As for the Cardinals, as long as they have a healthy Albert Pujols they are a serious threat. They lost a few pieces but they still have Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, their leadoff hitter (Eckstein), their ace starter (Chris Carpenter) and their closer.
  17. I'm sure if it's a weekday game that ESPN will cut-away from PTI to show it just to piss me off. I know it can be an annoyance, but not cutting away would be the ultimate sign of ESPN self-arrogance. Do we really want a world where we'd rather see talking heads discuss sports news than the event itself?
  18. Why does anyone even listen to Eskin anymore?
  19. The Twins/Blue Jays opener is actually on Tuesday, the day after most of baseball opens their season.
  20. Ah, the fundamentals argument. The problem is, if NBA players lack fundamentals, why aren't they being stomped on the court by superior basketball players in the NBA? This is a competition after all. I think the big problem is that All-Star players tend to be the best offensive players, and defense is neglected. Basketball doesn't really have statistical values on defense, and it is quite difficult to identify the players who will help you on that end. Second, let's remember that this has grown to a competition now. We are going to lose games solely because the other team is really good.
  21. Baseball Prospectus listed Jose Contreras and Hideki Matsui in previous years, so this isn't a new phenomenon. There are a few issues with their rankings. The obvious one is the lack of Jon Lester. Second is rating Chris Snelling for finally producing an 80 game season but leaving Cole Hamels of the list. But all prospect lists are just a matter of throwing names out there, and they really shouldn't be taken seriously. I think places like Baseball Prospectus are running into problems where they try to take the educated guesses produced by sabermetrics and turn them into cold, hard fact in order to sell them to fans and fantasy players. The competition has made them look foolish at times.
  22. I ran a rudementary simulation of the WBC. Even without their best players, the U.S. is an easy favorite. Their advantage is their depth. While the Dominicans lack a catcher, and the Venezuelans lack a strong first baseman and center fielder, the Americans have no weaknesses. The Venezuelans and Dominicans are almost dead even. The Dominicans are slight favorites, but it's so close that I couldn't begin to make a call on a single game. They'll likely end up playing three games head-to-head, and I'm guessing the Venezuelans will have a stronger pitcher in the semifinal. I used MLB players for the Cuban and Japanese teams. I have no idea what the Cubans will do in the tournament, except that they'll reach the second round. The Japanese are routinely defeated in postseason exhibitions, so I doubt they'll pose a serious threat. The only tricky thing is the semifinals. It's a one game playoff, and an upset could easily leave us with a non-USA matchup.
  23. There's no point. Brown's got 211 career wins and one 20 win season. He's not going to Cooperstown.
  24. Nothing beyond that he's not going to put up a 2.85 ERA again this season. I just find it amusing to criticize one pitcher for being a one-year wonder while praising the other because he just had one good season. For what it is worth, Carl Pavano has the third best projected ERA on the staff. Yankee fans should also remember that his absense would open the door for Jaret Wright.
  25. Can anyone spot the humor in these two statements?
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