EVIL~! alkeiper

NCAA Football is far from what I would like to see, but that is another topic. Yes, in any competition there is a chance of upsets and a bad performance can knock you flat. But the proposed format here takes upset possibilities to the extreme. If the Tampa Bay Devil Rays beat the Chicago White Sox today, no one would bat an eye. The BEST team in major league history still lost a quarter of their games. Here is some fun with bionomial probability (don't worry, I'll spare the calculations). Let's say you take the best team in major league history against average competition, and figure they have a 75% chance of winning any single game. They play three games, and would need to win two in order to advance. What are the odds that the greatest team in baseball history fails to advance? Almost 20%. That's not all. They need to advance out of two of these round robins. Losing either would eliminate this team, and the odds of losing either are about 33%. Now if they have gotten this far, they need to win one semifinal game and one final game. The odds of the greatest team in HISTORY winning over a group of average teams under this format is 37%. 37%! Now, picture a much tighter group of teams, and you get an idea of how random this format is. This is not a competition, it is an exhibition. That is all well and good, and it should be treated as such. 27 players to get through three games, before taking a week off? AAA teams play entire seasons with 23 players, taking a game off every two or three weeks. Who the hell needs 12 pitchers to navigate a three game series? One other thing. We have U.S.A., Canada, Mexico, and South Africa in a group. The United States has produced over 10,000 MLB players. Canada has produced just over 200, and Mexico about 100. South Africa has produced zero. Ever hear of Tim Harrell? He's the only South African in recent memory to play AA baseball, making him the only such qualified player from his country. I hope MLB institutes a ten run mercy rule for their sake.

Here are a few other sources of the loss. One, the standard deviation of home run totals over the year is somewhere around 100. So you could expect a swing of 50 simply by random chance. Two, the Washington Nationals moved from a neutral park in Montreal to RFK Stadium, an extremely difficult home run park. The Nationals hit and allowed a total of 166 home runs last year by the end of June. Right now, they have seen 132 home runs in their games. That is a decline of 34.

I think Kennedy will be fine.

And Jason Scobie proves why it is not a good idea to pick All-Stars based on win/loss records.

AAA All-Star game on ESPN2 right now. Somehow I've seen every player in the International League lineup play live.

http://www.retrosheet.org I would have it bookmarked if I didn't have it memorized.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2107228 So no Cuba apparently. If Japan doesn't sign up, this is nothing but the same MLB players we get to watch anyway joining some South African jobbers in a farcical tournament. Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of a World Baseball Tournament. But this is not so much about competition as it is a way to make some easy money.

Despite the game counting and all, the ratings fall to new lows... http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar05/ne...tory?id=2107215

Home run totals were down April and May but reached previous totals in June/July. The main reason I would suspect is the declines of several aging sluggers, including Jim Thome, Barry Bonds, and Sammy Sosa. Steroids? The warning signs of decline were evident a year ago, and such declines are not unusual at their ages.

It's nice to see a player like Tejada can get a car that they otherwise could not possibly afford.

Good grief. This micro-management of the bullpen is absolutely ridiculous. Is B.J. Ryan not good enough to get a single out with a two run lead all of the sudden?

He's got a point. MLB is making a ton of money off this. If they are going to throw together a loose tournament and make a shitload of money off of it, why should the players all line up and volunteer? Just the mere mention of patriotism doesn't cut it.

And Mark Fidrych! They are bringing out the perfect personalities. I notice they reduced the size of the target slightly.

All-Star AIM chat tonight at TSMBaseball.

Nice to see Ernie Harwell.

I'd love to see Bob Uecker call games. Not only is he bright and informative, but he shares a genuine enthusiam for the game.

I'm going to write about this in the blog later, but I'll pose the question now. Does anyone think the All-Star game would be better served by reducing the number of players on each roster?

I figured I would get an official discussion thread going. Tonight is the night the baseball world basks in Bobby Abreu's reflective greatness.

That's about right actually.

This derby is getting awfully boring. You just can not produce a three hour home run exhibition.

Holy fuck indeed.

This is completely insane. Abreu broke his bat hitting home runs.

10 home runs. 517 feet. The world WILL recognize Bobby Abreu.

AIM chat tonight. Check it out at "NMBBaseball."

As for Hee Seop Choi, did any of you catch when he hit three home runs in a game? Yes, he IS a longball threat, boasting a .532 career slugging percentage in the minor leagues.