EVIL~! alkeiper

Baseball Primer has done a running tally of the ballots they've read, from newspapers columns of the voters. Goose Gossage is getting substantial support from the small sample of writers thus far.

Even if the Cubs make no further improvements, they should do better next season. This season they underperformed their pythagorean record by next year. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood missed 21 starts between them, and the Cubs gave 260 at bats to Ramon Martinez, and another 129 at bats to Alex Gonzalez. Cub fans fret about the bullpen, but LaTroy Hawkins in the closer role will not sink this team. Even with the injuries, the Cubs finished second in runs allowed, just behind the Cardinals. Quite honestly, I can easily see the Cubs taking the division right now.

Bobby Estalella is a player I always hoped would catch a break. I still think he could surprise people and he could make a good backup catcher.

Houston is actually 9-7 against Western Conference teams. They're 5-8 versus the East.

Assuming we take that standard, how does Wade Boggs not qualify? If you had a Hall where even players of Boggs' quality could not enter, it would be quite a drab and boring place.

The HOF voting comes out next week, I believe on the fourth. Here is a list of candidates.... 2005 HOF Candidates Who are your picks? I'd take Blyleven, Sandberg, Boggs, Trammell, Dawson, and Gossage. I feel especially adament about Blyleven's candidacy, but an article here presents Blyleven's case better than I ever could.

16,905 was the paid attendance for last night's game. I would guess that many of those are season ticket holders, who are counted towards attendance even if they don't show up. They're ok for this year, but come the offseason we'll see what happens.

I was going to suggest that, particularly for New Year's Day.

The biggest problem the Yankees have right now is their utter lack of depth. Right now their bench consists of Andy Phillips, Bubba Crosby, and John Flaherty. And one of those guys would have to be the DH. If any starter goes down, they have nothing to replace them. And if the team suffers a slew of injuries, they're in deep shit.

Looking over Jackson's career record, he's been on some truly awful teams. The mid-90s Mavericks, the 97-97 Golden State Warriors, the 1999-2001 Atlanta Hawks, and the 2001-02 Miami Heat, to name a few. He finally makes a good club for a few years, and he gets traded to a 2-25 team. I'm sure I'd be thrilled as well.

I glanced at Baron Davis' game log. He hasn't been able to help, as the Hornets are still 0-8 when he plays.

And here I thought the trade couldn't possibly make the Hornets worse.

Yankees fans will be pleased to learn that the Yankees did finalize the deal with Jaret Wright for a three year, $21 Million stint on the disabled list.

From the horse's mouth...

Russia's historical problem is that there is entirely flat land from the Western borders all the way to the Ural Mountains. It is very easy to invade Russia, and thus it has been invaded several times. Only the winter saved their country during the invasions of both Napolean and Hitler. So yes, when the Cold War came about, Russia found it in their best interests to create a sort of buffer zone to protect their nation.

Taking a look at my copy of the World Almanac, it stands right now as the biggest loss of life in a flood since 1939. The book lists a 1939 flood killing 200,000 in North China. Also, a 1931 flood on the Huang He River in China is reputed to have killed 3,700,000. Of all disasters, its the biggest since 1976, when an Earthquake killed 242,000 in China and Tangshan.

Do you mean "jumping to conclusions" as in "I'm a fan of the guy and the actual cause of death was a rare liver disease so there's no way he's on 'roids."? Because surely you can't mean taking a look at the facts of the situation and making an eduated assumption based on said facts. It's like Logic 101. a) Steroids have known side effects such as causing liver diseases. b) Walter Payton died of a liver disease. Now just taking into account A and B and saying Walter Payton took performance enhancing drugs would likely be jumping to conclusions. However, combined that with the fact that not only was it the prime era of steroid use in the NFL but also that industry experts themselves have speculated on drug use by Payton and I think the term "educated conclusion" is a better phrase. All anyone has on Payton is speculation. If steroids contributed (or more accurately, caused) his liver illness, wouldn't we see liver disease more often in professional athletes? I don't think we can place a single label on athletes when it comes to this kind of thing. Some athletes die young. Even athletes who couldn't possibly have taken steroids (Dan Quisenberry and Catfish Hunter come to mind) have passed before their time. Steroids undoubtably have an adverse effect on a person's health, but whether they contribute to an early grave is a relatively unexplored area. Anything at this point is really just idle speculation.

Babe Ruth & Roger Maris both died in an era where there was nowhere near as much technology to diagnose such things. . .besides, the average lifespan back in those days was 55-62 if I'm not mistaken. . .that's not to say what they died of, that's just pointing out that it was more common for people to pass away at that age back then. . .the diagnoses being waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay post-mortem notwithstanding, that was just the lifestyle back then. . .but I understand what you're saying, and it's a shame that people will automatically look to illegal substances as soon as a celebrity unexpectedly dies, but that's how cynical our great society has become. . .good points though. . . Roger Maris was born in 1934. He would be 70 years old if he were alive. There are a large number of 70 year old people around these days, so I'd say dying at 51 was hardly the norm. Maris died of cancer, I believe. Nothing unusual about how he died except that he was too young. Ruth died young as well, but he was a man destroyed by his own vices. He smoked too much, drank too much, ate too much, and likely suffered from venerial disease. It was only a matter of time before something brought him down.

For the heck of it, here are the projections given from the Bill James Handbook for the Cubs' outfield.... Jason Dubois. .277/.343/.522. 21 home runs in 112 games. Corey Patterson. .277/.317/.465. 21 home runs and 25 stolen bases. Sammy Sosa. .270/.357/.553. 37 home runs. Todd Hollandsworth. .281/.343/.461. Not too shabby, I think.

I'd be remiss if I didn't third the nomination for Moneyball. An excellent book that really gets to the heart of what the Oakland Athletics are about, as well as the men who crunch baseball statistics for a living. It is easily as important a book on baseball that I've seen in the last decade. And since I've had a few inquiries in the past, understand that this book is far, FAR from a book of statistics. In fact, it contains no graphs at all, and the only tables presented are the simple win/loss records of the American League West. The book is entirely a narrative.

Yes, the injury database is extremely suspect. I almost think its something the publisher insisted on to sell books in an increasingly crowded marketplace, rather than anything James endorses. Having read much of James' writing, I find it difficult to believe that he would easily endorse such an unproven system, given that he ripped apart the Baseball Prospectus pitch count system in a recent book. I think the system is about as useful as "for Entertainment Only" psychic lines.

The sick part of the Milton signing is that Cleveland is close to signing Kevin Millwood to a one year, $7 Million contract. Presuming Millwood is healthy, I can reasonably guarantee that Millwood will have a better season than Milton, easily. The problem with Millwood is that people throw around the ace tag. He's not an ace. But he's a good #3 option, and he'll benefit the Indians more than Milton will benefit the Reds. As for Hollandsworth, he owns a career .280/.340/.447 line against right handed hitters. It's hard to say what DuBois will do, but one projection system gives him a .500 slugging percentage. I think when you combine the two, they will easily match the production of Moises Alou. I really think this Cubs team will surprise people this year, and they could win the Central. I'd say they will, but I know better than to make rash predictions before the offseason ends.

In the case of Milton, I do not know how many better pitchers the Cincinnati Reds had an opportunity to sign. However, this is yet another case of desperation yielding a bad signing. Milton is not as bad a pitcher as people make him out to be. His pitching will improve a bad Reds' pitching staff. But the Reds overpaid dearly for his services. Good move for the Cubs signing Hollandsworth. Hollandsworth/DuBois is a very good left field combination.

So far, we've can safely pencil in Zack Greinke and Jose Lima into the starting rotation. Afterwards, the Royals have their choice of Brian Anderson (ineffective), Jimmy Gobble, Mike Wood, or Denny Bautista (inexperienced), and Runelvys Hernandez or Kyle Snyder (missed 2004 due to injury. We'll see what kind of rotation they can produce. One thing for sure is that the Royals saw total disaster last year, and they almost have to improve. I look forward to seeing Greinke pitch, as he is simply an amazing prospect.

Darrell May and Brian Anderson were more prone to giving up home runs in 2004, if that means much. Lima gave up 33 home runs in 170.3 IP, while Anderson allowed 33 in 166 IP. May allowed 38 in 186 IP. Both played in a park much more prone than home runs than Dodger Stadium. Both allowed a higher than usual rate of home runs. Lima has a track record. The only two years Lima was good were the two years he pitched in the Astrodome, one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. Even then, he rated high on the list of league leaders for giving up home runs. Lima not only gives up home runs, he gives them up consistantly, year after year. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor HR Factors - Dodger Stadium - #16 (1.016) Kauffman Stadium - #29 (.706) My early checking on this indicates the following. If Lima played the same and was in Kansas City (ignoring some defensive stuff, which is much deeper.. and maybe the AL is more hitter friendly too) Lima's ERA wouldn't have been any higher in Kauffman Stadium than in Dodger Stadium Lima would have given up 5 less home runs. HR stats from 2004 Lima Home: 16 Away: 17 Darrell May Home: 18 Away: 20 Brian Anderson Home: 14 Away: 19 Zack Greinke Home: 10 Away: 16 Unless there's some continuity error, Kauffman Stadium was mysteriously pitcher friendly (then again, the Royals pitching still sucked) First off, Lima allowed one more home run on the road yes, but while pitching 34 less innings. Sixteen home runs in 102.3 IP is bad. Giving up seventeen in 68 innings is absolutely abysmal. Terrible. Second, that Darrell May and Brian Anderson allowed more home runs on the road does not mean Kaufmann Stadium is friendly territory. Their home run rates were abysmal as well. In May's case, if you take the percentage of home runs allowed, rather than the raw total, you will find that he allowed more home runs at home. Third, one year park factors are extremely suspect. You need a few years to create an adequate image of the park.