Rock's not a movie star yet

[cabbageboy 0]

Zsasz beat me to it. I haven't actually seen Finding Nemo, but I'm baffled as to how it was a disappointment in that it made about 334 million and most critics gave it nice reviews.

 

X2 wasn't really a disappointment, it got extremely good reviews (**** in the paper here in Louisville, though that is a bit high really) and made about 214 million. I thought it was a good movie.

 

Matrix Reloaded is the only one here that could be considered a disappointment. Yeah I know it made 280 million but the movie got lukewarm reviews and I know I certainly thought it was mediocre. A case of insane hype getting a movie a huge opening.

 

By the way, it's too early to say Finding Nemo is the highest grosser of the year. I bet ROTK will make more.

[Guest thrall585]

I guess Rock is not a movie draw. Maybe they will send him back to WWE so he won't waste Hollywood's time until he learns to draw.

[Guest El Satanico]

17 million isn't that bad for a movie released in the Fall. The Fall box office makes lot less than Summer box office. I believe around 20 mill is the average for the top movies in the fall.

 

This would've been 50+ mill. in July. I don't know why the studio held the movie until September.

 

 

It's insane to say the studio is disappointed in Finding Nemo. Studios only care about the overall money, not the first week money. This is why it's too early to call Rundown a disappointment.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

September is a terrible month for movies. People simply don't go, for whatever reason. This movie would have made 3x as much had it come out in June.

 

Matrix: Reloaded got 73% from Rotten Tomatoes, and an average rating of 7.0/10. Those are not lukewarm reviews.

 

By comparison the 'mega-hit' Pirates of the Carribean got 78% and an average of 7.1/10.

 

Not much of a difference there to consider one a huge hit and the other a bomb.

[bobobrazil1984 0]

It may be contradictory, but it explains to me why Finding Nemo, Matrix 2, and X2 made millions while they were all major letdowns. I think most movies are just flat out meaningless. Then of course, there is the Titanic argument, one of the worst movies ever made.

In what ways were Finding Nemo and X2 letdowns?

 

(or did you mean letdowns to you, ie you didn't enjoy them)

[Guest thrall585]

Sweet Home Alabama grossed $35,648,740 in its first weekend. And it opened up in September. And the Rundown is going to make half of that in its first weekend. The Rock is just not a movie draw.

[Guest Ghettoman]

GOOD GOD PEOPLE AT LEAST WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND IS OVER!!!!

 

Logically you'd want to give it at least two weeks before you come to conclusions about who can draw and who can't. Some of you aren't even waiting for the end of Saturday!

 

All this says is it's a slow weekend, the movie will be number one, and correct me if I'm wrong but a number one movie on your debut weekend is good enough to be considered a movie star, especially if we're gonna say Ben Stiller or Drew Barrymore are Hollywood stars, which I'd say by definition is undeniable.

 

There's a million and one conclusions to draw here, but a billion and two reasons not too. Wait until we have a legit total number, than go ahead and compare it to Spetember last year or Scorpion King.

 

This is like watching a match and declaring it **1/2 before the bell rings.

[Highland 0]

Matches have been declared 2 1/2 **'s before he bell even rings, like whenever TBS or A-Train is in them.

[Guest thrall585]

Ghettoman, there is no such thing as a "slow weekend" unless the economy makes a drastic change, in this case, it hasn't. Sweet Home Alabama grossed $35,648,740 in its first weekend and this is projected to make half of that, so a movie can make a lot of money in September so it has nothing to do with that (if you consider every weekend in September a slow weekend). Projections are fine to make, because they end up true all or nearly all the time between the range, you NO SOLD this point. #1 is a nice number to have, and it is important, but drawing money is also important, and the Rundown will not draw a lot of money for a Hollywood movie this weekend. The movie will make 14-17 million this weekend, and then it will decline from there. Not a Hollywood success and it does not cement the Rock as a Hollywood star, it takes him back a step.

Edited September 27, 2003 by thrall585

[AndrewTS 0]

I honestly forgot it was coming out this Friday.

[Guest Ghettoman]

Alright then how about the comparison of how much total gross this weekend had this year compared to last? How about the amount of movies opening? Is the movie guaranteed to make no more than 17? What's the second place movies gross for the weekend? Did the previous two slow as hell weeks carry on?

 

There's so many questions to ask and points to make, and yet the fact remains where in no place to do so yet. A prediction or projection is saying "The movie could make 17 mil" not "The movie will not make over 17 mill and Rock isn't amovie star", thats called jumping the gun.

 

And I'm wondering what you mean by "there is no such thing as a slow weekend". If one week a the number one movie makes 50 million and the total gross is over 200 million, and another week the top movie is 20 million and the total gross is 100 million, is there no difference there? How is it wrong to say one was a slow weekend?

 

And two last questions, if your saying Rock isn't a movie star, would it be fair to say neither are Ben Stiller or Drew Barrymore? What happens if the RunDown goes on to make over 100 mil, would he still not be a movie star because his opening weekend wasn't massively succesflul?

 

Too many unanswered questions to say something along the lines of "Rock is not a movie star". It's just a completely ridiculous idea.

[Guest El Satanico]

There's no such thing as a slow weekend for movies? Since when?

 

$17 mill opening still makes you a draw. If he wasn't a draw the movie would've made much less.

[Guest deadbeater]

I would wait until the second and especially third weekend to assess Rock's popularity. The third weekend is a holiday weekend.

[Guest thrall585]

Last year to this year does not matter because the economy has not changed much. The movie in 2nd place for this weekend so far is Under the Tuscan Sun, with a $3,030,000

gross estimate but only playing in 1,226 theaters compared to 3,152 for the Rundown.

 

"Did the previous two slow as hell weeks carry on"

You no sold my point about slow weeks.

 

"A prediction or projection is saying "The movie could make 17 mil" not "The movie will not make over 17 mill and Rock isn't amovie star", thats called jumping the gun."

You no sold again. The projection always or nearly always comes true withing the range. The movie is projected to make about 14-17 million and it very likely will. And this does not help the Rock in becoming an established movie star.

 

"If one week a the number one movie makes 50 million and the total gross is over 200 million, and another week the top movie is 20 million and the total gross is 100 million, is there no difference there? How is it wrong to say one was a slow weekend?"

The top movie from one week could be much less interesting than a top movie from the next week. It has nothing to do with a "slow weekend".

 

"if your saying Rock isn't a movie star, would it be fair to say neither are Ben Stiller or Drew Barrymore? What happens if the RunDown goes on to make over 100 mil, would he still not be a movie star because his opening weekend wasn't massively succesflul?"

I don't know enough about Stiller and Barrymore's careers but based on what Rundown made yesterday, it is not projected to make over 100 mil, so it will likely not. If it somehow does, then over 100 million could be considered a success and then it will help the Rock.

 

"Too many unanswered questions to say something along the lines of "Rock is not a movie star". It's just a completely ridiculous idea."

Based on the stats, it is not. However you can't prove from the opening for the movie so far that he is a movie star, because it didn't draw the way a Hollywood movie should.

[the pinjockey 0]

Wow. Sweet Home Alabama made 35 mil, and all it took was the biggest female draw in Hollywood. I don't think it is fair to compare a Reese Witherspoon movie to a Rock movie.

 

I don't think 17-20 is too much too worry about, because word of mouth will keep this hanging around the 7-10 mil mark for a while. I would be willing to bet a good chunk of people aren't going to go see a movie starring Rock until they hear he is good.

[Guest thrall585]

There's no such thing as a slow weekend for movies? Since when?

 

A slow weekend doesn't happen out of random. There are no such things. There are however, slow time periods. Like for example, after summer before the holidays, movies don't make as much money.

 

$17 mill opening still makes you a draw. If he wasn't a draw the movie would've made much less.

 

A 17 million opening is way below what the average Hollywood movie makes in the opening weekend. The Rock is no draw as of now.

[the pinjockey 0]

"A 17 million opening is way below what the average Hollywood movie makes in the opening weekend."

 

Ok, that is stretching it. Outside of summer releases, typically only the no.1 movie of the week approaches that number.

[Guest thrall585]

Wow. Sweet Home Alabama made 35 mil, and all it took was the biggest female draw in Hollywood. I don't think it is fair to compare a Reese Witherspoon movie to a Rock movie.

 

I was saying that September isn't a month where the top is only like 20 million, there have been several movies that have made more than that like for instance, Sweet Home Alabama.

 

I don't think 17-20 is too much too worry about, because word of mouth will keep this hanging around the 7-10 mil mark for a while. I would be willing to bet a good chunk of people aren't going to go see a movie starring Rock until they hear he is good.

 

People find out quickly from reviews and from others who have seen the movie if it is good or not, then they will decide to see it. So probably the drop next week won't be that big because as you said, people will want to read reviews and hear from others if the movie starring the Rock is worth seeing. However after the 2nd week there will be a bigger drop and then the movie will gradually continue to drop overall like all movies.

Edited September 28, 2003 by thrall585

[the pinjockey 0]

September openings

 

Here you go. If The Rundown does crack 17 mil, it will only be the 12th movie to do so opening in September. If it hits the 20 mil mark it will only be the 8th.

 

So can we please stop the sky is falling on Rock's career routine.

[Guest thrall585]

But not many big movies are released in September. This is one of the biggest movies that has been released in September, and for it not to do 25+ million in the first weekend is failure.

[the pinjockey 0]

I don't see how a movie that is a solid action movie (not a blockbuster type), can on it's lowest conservative guess be 12th all-time being a failure.

 

This movie isn't X-Men or Spider-Man type of blockbuster. This is a solid action film with a developing star.

[Guest Ghettoman]

17 million, number one movie, we all know the movie will end up with at least 50 million total, and that doesn't make Rock a movie star? Than how can other people drawing less money be considered movie stars?

 

And a slow period? Like the last two weeks and this one? I just don't see your logic in drawing conclusions about the total succes of this movie and how it will impact Rock with one number thats basically a guestimate, whether it's usually right or wrong.

 

But whatever, I got into this about Freddy and Jason, I really don't want to get too far into it again. I just don't see the logic in declaring a movie a success or failure before the opening weekend has ended.

[Guest thrall585]

Not only does this movie have The Rock, but it has Sean William Scott, the guy who carried American Wedding. The Rock is advertised as a star for the movie, not a developing star. And while the movie isn't a blockbuster action movie, it is a big action movie, and this movie is bigger than other past September movies such as Blue Streak and Remember the Titans, so it should make more than them, but it is projected not to.

[the pinjockey 0]

You are saying this movie should out-open Denzel?!?

 

I like Sean William Scott more than just about anyone I know, but he will have minimal effect on a box office (Bulletproof Monk?). Christopher Walken is awesome, but not a draw. And who is the next star, Rosario Dawson? I think it is safe to say that the Rock is making 95% of this audience. So for his movie to do well box office wise, be a critical success, and for him being the one to carry it. I think that makes it an incredible success.

[Guest thrall585]

17 million, number one movie, we all know the movie will end up with at least 50 million total, and that doesn't make Rock a movie star? Than how can other people drawing less money be considered movie stars?

 

They aren't. The main Hollywood stars draw, the ones who don't are not supported by Hollywood. So the Rock better start to draw fast. There are of course a lot of known actors who don't draw but however are great at acting.

[Guest thrall585]

You are saying this movie should out-open Denzel?!?

 

Maybe not out-open him but it should do just as well.

 

I think it is safe to say that the Rock is making 95% of this audience. So for his movie to do well box office wise, be a critical success, and for him being the one to carry it. I think that makes it an incredible success.

 

You are saying things before it happens, and those things very likely won't happen except the Rock carrying the movie (which I don't know since I haven't seen the movie).

[the pinjockey 0]

I am not talking about The Rock carrying the acting (I haven't seen the movie). I am talking about the Rock being the star, doing the publicity, and being the face of the film.

 

And I am not saying things before they happen. The movie is a critical success, he has been the one carrying it, and unless it falls apart completely tonight and tomorrow (which is possible, but doubtful) the movie has done well in the box office.

 

And the Rock is not going to do as well as Denzel so you should get that out of your head now.

[Guest thrall585]

And a slow period? Like the last two weeks and this one?

 

It has been slower because summer has ended.

 

I just don't see your logic in drawing conclusions about the total succes of this movie and how it will impact Rock with one number thats basically a guestimate, whether it's usually right or wrong.

 

The number is not a "guestimate". You keep no selling the point that the projection is nearly always right. The movie has like a 99% chance of making between about 14-17 million. Projections are fine to do and from projections you can see if the movie is going to be a draw. From the projection of the Rundown, the movie will not establish the Rock as a Hollywood draw.

[Ted the Poster 0]

Sweet Home Alabama was a romantic comedy DATE MOVIE starring REESE WITHERSPOON. That's like a hypnotic message to almost any woman with a boyfriend. "Drag him to this movie; he will thank you later!" the voice tells her. That means more people will(or will have to) see the movie. You also have to consider that the studio is banking mostly on Rock's drawing power, which is obviously wrestling fans, and there are a lot more people that don't watch wrestling than there are people who do watch.

[godthedog 0]

do what now?