So who do think will win?

[cynicalprofit 0]

Don't really care WHY you think they'll win, just wondering what the vote would be like if we decided.

[Guest JMA]

I'm saying Kerry.

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/index.php?showtopic=57467

[Styles 0]

http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/index.php?showtopic=57467

^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

And what are you asking anyway? You ask who we THINK WILL WIN, which is much different than "if we decided it". For instance, someone could choose Kerry as their choice, yet still admit they believe Bush will win. What a confusing and useless topic...

[The Czech Republic 0]

It's 50-50

[cynicalprofit 0]

http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/index.php?showtopic=57467

That was then, this is now.

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

That was 2 weeks ago.

[Jobber of the Week 0]

Can we give this one a quick kill? I mean, it's a CynicalProfit poll thread. It cries out for the embrace of death.

[NoCalMike 0]

The only reasonable answer I can come up with is...

 

Either way America loses.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

So, what's the over/under on how many Bush/Kerry voting polls will be popping up here between now and November...

[Zorin Industries 0]

Bush will win, I really don't want to see it, but I don't think Kerry has what it takes to oust him. Playing to the Populist vote with the war on terror will get Bush back in

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

I'm afraid Bush will, but it really is too close to call at this point. It just seems that 99% of the Democrats campaign strategy is simply bashing Bush, and as much as I would like to see him lose, that isn't very effective. The biggest voice for the Democrats right now is Michael Moore, and he's more likely to send voters to the Republicans than gain any. We just watched the Conservatives get defeated in Canada by a few blowhards who couldn't keep their mouths shut and simply gave ammunition to Martin, and the Democrats seem to be experiencing the same thing now in the US with guys like Moore.

[Stephen Joseph 0]

I agree with Kahran on his point. That, plus an economy that's looking like 1983-1984 all over again (and I am not crediting Bush, he's just very fortunate its doing this at this time), to me it seems very unlikely Bush will win.

 

People, after all, only vote their beliefs when their wallets are empty.

[Guest Wildbomb 4:20]

So, what's the over/under on how many Bush/Kerry voting polls will be popping up here between now and November...

I put the line at 10.5, and I'll be taking the under. This thread doesn't count, mind you.

 

--Ryan

[Stephen Joseph 0]

The better question would be guessing the over under on the number of bush/kerry threads before Nov. 4th

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

But that's because the 2004 Election is deserving of multiple threads.

 

Now Mikey Moores threads on the other hand -- Gah, I'm starting to run out of fat jokes...

[NoCalMike 0]

Kerry gained a bit of momentum after choosing Edwards, but there is still a rumor that Bush is going to Drop Cheney and choose a new VP that will "energize the ticket" Also, don't hold out hope that the Republicans have something BIG planned to drop right before the election that could sway the voters their way.

[Stephen Joseph 0]

Actually NCM, Kerry didn't gain any momentum from choosing Edwards. There's plenty of futures trading sites that deal in reality events, who wins elections and things. Before choosing edwards, the price of a 10 dollar future was $5.50 for Bush and $4.5 on Kerry. After Edward's nomintion, Bush's share went down 10 cents but Kerry's remained unchanged. Thus, for some reason, these futures traders think its about 55/5 split on probability.

 

Probably the reason it didn't change anything was that these guys probably knew Edwards would be it so it wasn't new information.

 

For fair and balancing issues, last November? Bush's futures shares were priced at 6 bucks...so he has dropped a bit.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

I defended you in another thread and you pull out this "fantasy futures trading sites" shit?

 

Sic him, Tyler...

[Stephen Joseph 0]

I defended you in another thread and you pull out this "fantasy futures trading sites" shit?

 

Sic him, Tyler...

Hey~!

 

Check these things out, one of em is in Britian. You can get 10:1 odds on J-Lo and Ben being together at the end of this year.

 

Don't even ask, no I didn't take that bet.

 

But no seriously, one of my professors set up one of these things for DARPA, you might remember that one where people made a fuss because of options trading on assasinations and terrorist attacks and it got canned.

 

yeah.

i love our department

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

Huh? Department?

 

What exactly do you do for a living, Steve?...

[NoCalMike 0]

Actually NCM, Kerry didn't gain any momentum from choosing Edwards. There's plenty of futures trading sites that deal in reality events, who wins elections and things. Before choosing edwards, the price of a 10 dollar future was $5.50 for Bush and $4.5 on Kerry. After Edward's nomintion, Bush's share went down 10 cents but Kerry's remained unchanged. Thus, for some reason, these futures traders think its about 55/5 split on probability.

 

Probably the reason it didn't change anything was that these guys probably knew Edwards would be it so it wasn't new information.

 

For fair and balancing issues, last November? Bush's futures shares were priced at 6 bucks...so he has dropped a bit.

so was this a quasi-joke or what?

[Stephen Joseph 0]

why im an economist! lol...

 

no umm, kkk, i meant my academic program department, not the justice through

[Guest MikeSC]

So, what's the over/under on how many Bush/Kerry voting polls will be popping up here between now and November...

I put the line at 10.5, and I'll be taking the under. This thread doesn't count, mind you.

 

--Ryan

I pick 12. And if I'm close, oh yeah, this thread counts.

-=Mike

[Guest Crazy Dan]

I think this will be a very close election. With Kerry taking Cali and New York, along with most of the New England Area, sans New Hampshire. Bush will get most of the Southern States, including Texas (which will be his biggest state he will carry, barring a Republican blitz in Cali/New Yawk.

 

So this becomes who can keep the close states one in the last election on both sides, and who can pick up those who voted the prior for the other party. I do think this will not be a landside for either Bush of Kerry. So what are the keys here.

 

Iraq vastly improves, we find those dreaded WMD, which are not outdated, but current. The exergunts are put down, and the country begins its conquest from the Corporations to get as many Starbucks, WalMarts, etc into that. If Iraq improves, Bush is helped greatly. But, if we continue to get insurgents attacking, in a guerrila war, and it looks like we are going to be in more need of help, then this could hurt Bush. And especially as it becomes more clear we need more soldiers to help out. And look out for more terrorists sneaking in, to make Iraq a terrorist hot bed, which could tap into an angry public over their American occupiers. Depending on who well Iraq is doing could be a factor.

 

Economy - I have heard it is growind at very good rate, highest compared to some reports. Now how will this trickle down to the unemployed and help them get a decent job that gets them into a better living situation. If this growth is only helping a select few, but still many have not been able to get work, then this could hurt Bush, who keeps saying that my tax cuts are working. So I will give this a few months, as some experts have said this is the norm, before giving a better assesment. But for those who are not seeing jack, and they don't see jack, could be pucnhing Kerry in Nov, which could be vital in swing states.

 

Another Terrorist Attack - I hope this does not happen, but what happens if we get another attack, which is another one which we don't see happen. now if the reports are correct, we might get attacked on election day... and if this happen, people might stick with Bush, not to mess up things to much. But for others, they will be pissed. As all these things that were meant to warn, keep us aware, invade or library records did nothing to prevent another attack. And this time, Clinton is not there to put the blame on his shoulders. And this could hurt Bush big time, as his policies of prevention as well as putting Ashcroft in charge and allow the Patriot Act to come into existence, did nothing to help prevent an attack, but keep the American people going by a color chart which brough apathy after a feew weeks of crying wolf. So a terrorist attack, in my opinion, might cause hime to lose.

 

The Debates-

Maybe a lil overrated, but the last elections, when Al Gore had a chance to debate, who turned out to be a weak debator, Bush and basically put him in his place. Instead Bush flustrated Gore to the point Gore kept losing his cool many times, and when Bush did speak, Gore ended up agreeing with him on many events. Throw in that Bush comes off as more likeable guy, ended using this to make Gore lose it, interupting Bush any chance he got, of course throwing some things that Bush did end up doing, but you lost track of it as Gore came off as a jerk. I do feel that this helped Bush carry some close states, and hurt Gore in some states he might have won. So what should have been an easy win for Gore, helped Bush much more.

 

Well, Bush still is not the best debator. He relies on repeating his viewpoints ad neuseum. I do feel a good debatotor is able to aticipate the answers and have a response. Kerry for all his faults is a solid defenender. He will have things to back his points out, just as long as he doesn't repeat what Bush says, as Al Gore did. Kerry must be civilized and not interupt, like Gore did. And if he can make good points, and retort what Bush says, this could prose a problem for Bush, who when not following his outline, might have a problem quick thinking a response/retort to what he has heard. Plus, watch out for Bush repeating the same reasons over and over again. So the debates might not decide the President, but it could expose a weekness of President Bush public speaking and quick thinking ability. And Plus SNL Debates are always a funny cornerstone with Seth and Will Forte pose to be very good impressions.

 

Last, I do think that Ralph Nader will not be as big a factor this year. Unlike 4 years ago, many of the celebrities and peple who thought Gore and Bush were the same, and Nader was the true alternative, saw how much they might have made a wrong choice when they saw Bush win the elections, while their votes hurt Gore. So more people I see voting for Kerry this time around. And I also have seen more Kerry bumber stickers ( I drive through a pretty Conservative part of the Bay Area to visit my mom) 4 years ago, there were far more Bush Stickers and the low amount Gore Liberman. So there are definately more people who vote Democrat this time around. And that is not the best indication of how the vote will turn out, but I do feel more people will be behind the Democrats this time. Which I do think the Democrats are more unified this time around thant they were in 2000.

 

And say what you will about Edwards, (actually I am not too familiar with his lawsuits he won, was this a "ambulance chaser" or was he representing a client whos Dr., who had a 25 vicodin habit a day, performed a knew injury which did more bad than good (true story of one of my friends). So I would like to get more info into that matter. But as George Bush is more likeable that Kerry personality wise, Edwards is far more pleasant than Cheeney (who Carlin said it right, he does look like he is badly compinsated when ever he talks), And since our last two Presidents did not exactly have the most experience in public office either, I do feel that this should not be major factor. So I am interested in the VP debates as well, if only to see Cheeney grimmace everytime he talks.

 

So I feel these are some important things to consider in the upcomming months. This is a very decided country, so it is important we all vote, so that you may bitch when your candidate loses But I do hope that Florida increases the font size of the ballots, so that we no longer have to hear about "hanging chads" and

Pat Buchannon is completely confused how he got all those Jewish people voting for me? Mainly I just want the votes properly counted, and for the News stations to keep mouth shut until the results are officially in. I am sure after each Convention, the poll numbers will rise for Kerry, and then bring them back down after the Republican one. So runs the best campaign? Who can touch the voters undecided? And please SNL make your debate sketched funny, becuase this year should be comedy. And one last thing, just remember, "Flip Flopping" happens a lot, in my guess. Kerry is constantly slammed for this, but sometimes this criticsm tends to miss the fact that Bush also tends to flip flop on issues, and for that matter most politicians do this as well, not as much, but still always need to be taken into context of the speach.

 

I can't wait for the election, as I do many will come out to vote. Please vote for the one you agree with most. Read the platforms and ways to achieve it. Look at past records and policies and see if you agree. Don't listen to any political ad, which more times than not tend to snip things to fit their goal. And mostly either got to unbiased web sites, and see what each candidate has plan. And I know how hard this is, try not to be sucked into the charisma of one over the other. Know their politcal thing before hand, so that you can see through the BS that gets spewed to cover and distort the issues at hand. Voting is a great privilage of all, but don't abuse it by voting blinding or political lines, just becuase he is "insert party" Pick the candidate you think will do the better job.

 

I am leaning towards Kerry. I have not been happy with many of Bush's foriegn policy. His spending is borderline "Democrat on Speed, who just got a bunch a cash" Has Bush met a pork bill he didn't like. I don't like that the intelligence gathered by Bush to go to war, was faulty, but to me it seem Bush was happy with that, and so off we are in Iraq, which so far looks like it is going to take more time to fix, which is why we need more help, becuase our men are being overworked, asked to stay past tour of duty. And I do think that many countries could help with the Policing of the country, and dispell that this is just an American occupation. I am also not big on giving money to religious gropus for aferschool programs. I am for religion, but not when it is publicaly funded. I just believe in Seperation of Church and State. Some of Bush Environmental policies I just don't like, including thinning of the forrests and openening National Forrests to loggers ans minors. I won't criticize Kyoto, but I do think that there are some inventions which can help decrease air polution, including raising fule economy by even 3 gallons. And this instance to drill in the Artic, which might get us some good oil supply, but it also might only last 6 mos or so. And as the EXXON Valdez proved, when oil gets loose in nature, it really destroys much life around in it a cruel slow death. So that is some problems that rarely gets mention. That and this is only a potential short term relief, and maybe not enought to keep us from crawling back.

 

So those are few reasons I am more than likely going Kerry. He is flawed, but I feel Bush is even more flawed. One last thing about this administration, or Bush in general, is that he never admits any wrong to any things me might have made a mistake on. They only take in the praise, but when something goes wrong or a mistake was made, they spin it so that they act like it was not there fault. And so I am just not sold on Bush. Those were my observations of Bush. I could be wrong, but I have only once praised Bush, after 9/11, and I feel that this country is in need of change. And if it Kerry did get the Victory, and he ends up doing a bad job, then I will be the first to admit I was wrong. But for now I am going with Kerry, but if Bush wins, than I will just count down 4 more years until the next election while spite all of those who voted Bush .

[JangoFett4Hire 0]

at least the Dems don't have to worry about losing their

candidate's home state this time around (which I believe was

much more a factor than those old bitty-bluehairs in Fla).

[Vern Gagne 0]

Don't look past Bush in the debates. He's not great...but he'll suprise people when they least expect it.Also, Kerry's believe imo that he'll wipe the floor with Bush, and won't come prepared like he should be.

 

I'm picking Bush to win reelection. It won't be has close as many expect.

[Guest Brian]

You'd think Kerry would learn from Gore's mistakes.

[Vern Gagne 0]

He should be but when all you hear is how terrible Bush is has a public speaker. You the tendency to be over confident.

[Guest MikeSC]

I'll be honest --- if my hacking plans come to fruition --- you are corresponding with the next President of the United States.

 

AND the next Pope.

-=Mike

...not even Catholic...