Electoral Vote Predictor 2004.

[Justice 0]

Anyone know if a poll BESIDES Zogby has Nevada in Kerry's column?  Every other poll I see has Nevada as a Bush state by about 10%.

Heh. When Zogby started calling NM solidly for Kerry, I started to doubt their legitmacy. ESPECIALLY after everyone else said that Bush was making tons of headway there.

[cabbageboy 0]

I too have wondered about that Zogby NM poll, since no one else seems to have Kerry up 10% there. That said, it's not just a one time flukish poll, it's the result he keeps coming up with. Makes me wonder.

 

Incidentally, who on earth has Bush up 10 in NV? At most he might be up 3 in most polls, so Kerry being up 1 there in a poll isn't stunning. It's not especially crucial that Kerry win both of these, but he outta hang on to NM at least. Incidentally what is this big headway Bush has made in NM? He's polling at roughly 47-48% there, about what he got last time. There might be a poll where Bush is up in NM 48-46 or so but that'll likely mean Kerry will win the state 50-48.

 

There were 3 states where I wondered about Zogby: NM, OR, and AR. I think Kerry will win NM ultimately but not by anything like 10% (maybe 2-3%). He'll win Oregon as well but not double digits, maybe by 5%. And I seriously doubt Arkansas is any sort of tie, Bush will win that one by about 5%.

 

What I wonder is this: What samples do pollsters use for a single state? If they use the 39% Dem, 35% Rep, 26% Ind sample for all states then it'll likely give curious results in some states.

 

American Research Group at least does a breakdown on their sample in a single state, though I'm not sure if it's the same as the turnout in 2000.

 

Basically the best a pollster can do is apply 39-35-26 when doing a national poll, but check out the in state turnout when doing a poll for a single state.

[teke184 0]

Bush was up 9 in Gallup's poll from 9/18 to 9/21. It's a little old but there are two more with Bush up by 4 (Survey USA and Las Vegas Sun)and another with Bush up by 2 (Rasmussen).

 

The point being that these show a Bush lead just above the margin of error and yet Zogby has the race as a tie.

 

 

If you look at the regression analysis of the Nevada polls at the EV site, you'll see that the top poll has had Bush up consistantly for a while now while the Zogby one is erratic to say the least.

[Jobber of the Week 0]

Anyone know if a poll BESIDES Zogby has Nevada in Kerry's column? Every other poll I see has Nevada as a Bush state by about 10%.

I read the news from the region pretty readily and it seems like it still could go to anybody.

 

Of course, there are people out there looking for a mini-Florida over there.

[CBright7831 0]

 

Kerry 253

Bush 247

[Guest MikeSC]

At this point, I'm simply ignoring the polls. The movement in them, honestly, makes no sense. They ALL reek of being gimmicked.

 

Hell, Gallup has Bush up by 8 --- and while I think Bush will win comfortably, I do not begin to believe he has an 8 point lead.

-=Mike

[teke184 0]

I think the only things anyone can count on are that "flyover country" (basically the entire Great Plains, Texas, and everything in the South but Florida) are locks for Bush and that Illinois, California, and about 75% of New England are locks for Kerry.

 

 

Anything else is speculative because of the weirdness of the polls and the 4% margin of error they have.

[cabbageboy 0]

There's no way in hell Bush is going to win comfortably. I too noted that new Gallup poll and it's of course complete bullshit. I mean, last week they had Kerry up 49-48 (which sounded feasible) and now all of a sudden Bush is UP by 8% 52-44?? Let's face it, they are doing the goofy oversampling of Republicans yet again. Gallup is ruining their credibility with this election. I can't see how anyone will take them seriously after this.

 

It's basically going to come down to 8 states at this point: Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and of course Florida.

 

Nevada is a tossup, but since Bush won it in 2000 I think he'll likely win that state by 2-3%. Since Nader isn't on the ballot in NM (at least I don't think he is), I can't see him drawing 3.6% again so Kerry should likely win that state by a bit more than Gore did. Also, from what I've seen in both Rasmussen and Zogby Kerry is up slightly in WI and IA (just 1-2 in WI and 4 in IA). PA is a state that I don't actually think is all that much of a tossup, Kerry will likely win it by a good 5-6%. NH is just 4 electoral votes and is a tie in most polls, but unless Nader matches his performance from 2000 I don't see this one going to Bush again.

 

That leaves OH and FL to determine the election. I have absolutely no idea about either of these states. FL's polls seem to be either 4% for Bush, 4% for Kerry, or tied at 47. I just hope that there isn't controversy down there this time.

 

OH's polls are much the same, just all over the place. Some have Bush up 8% (which is fantasy), some have him up 2, some have Kerry up as much as 4. I have no idea who will win this state.

 

So there you have it, basically it comes down to FL and OH.

[2GOLD 0]

Florida will end in a tie.

Why? Because they need to find another new and fresh way to make the state look even dumber than before.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/003036.html

 

RVs:

Total sample = 942

 

Republicans = 348 (37%)

Independents = 259 (27%)

Democrats = 327 (35%)

 

LVs:

Total sample = 788

 

Republicans = 296 (38%)

Independents = 211 (27%)

Democrats = 278 (35%)

 

(...)

 

Yet take a look at the wild swings in self-identified party allegiance in the Gallup LV samples going back the last month or so, and ask yourself if it really is plausible that the electorate is this volatile:

 

October 14-16

GOP 38%

Dem 35%

 

October 9-10

GOP 38%

Dem 34%

 

October 1-3

GOP 35%

Dem 39%

 

September 24-26

GOP 43%

Dem 31%

 

September 13-15

GOP 40%

Dem 33%

 

Gallup wants you to believe that if the election was held at any time during the last four weeks, the GOP would constitute anywhere from a low of 35% up to 43% of those voting, and the Democrats would constitute anywhere from a low of 31% up to a high of 39% of those voting, again all of this happening in just one month. But if you factor out the one poll that resembled the 2000 exit polls, Gallup would have you believe that the GOP makes up between 38% and 43% of those voting, while the Democrats make up only between 31% and 35% of those voting.

 

First off, does anyone really believe that there are those kinds of swings in party self-identification in one month? And second, how can anyone conclude that Gallup’s likely voter sampling methodology, especially when compared to the 1996 and 2000 exit polls, isn’t biased in favor of the GOP?

 

If you take polls too seriously.. you'll probably start drinking.

 

Never fall for a poll until you know the Party ID breakdown.

 

and there's this..

 

Reader Doug Barnum computes the LV results using the party support figures from the same poll and guess what? If Gallup had weighted this LV sample with the same methodology that John Zogby uses (the 2000 exit poll results), Kerry would have a 2% lead, rather than a 8% deficit.

 

According to Doug's figures:

 

Here is the raw data for registered voters:

 

Dem: 85% Kerry, 11% Bush, 0% Nader

Rep: 9% Kerry, 89% Bush, 0% Nader

Ind: 47% Kerry, 42% Bush, 5% Nader

 

Now, again, using the Zogby turnout model (which agrees with the past two elections) of 39% D, 35% R, 26% I, we get:

 

Kerry: (.39 * 85 + .35 * 9 + .26 * 47 ) = 48.5%

Bush: (.39 * 11 + .35 * 89 + .26 * 42) = 46.4%

Nader: (.26 * 5) = 1.3%

 

Either way.. it's close.

 

Or a conspiracy

 

(oh yeah.. Nader will not get 1%, if you want more details, ask)

[Jobber of the Week 0]

I think Bush will win  I think Bush will win comfortably, I do not begin to believe he has an 8 point lead.

Man, you have your head up your ass even more than the other talking points issue-spouting right-wing Internet Partisans do. They're at least strongly considering the possibility of another neck and neck race.

 

But then again, Gallup paints an even rosier picture than you do, so I have to give you credit for that.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Interesting note from the CNN poll. 56% think Bush will win, while only 36% think Kerry will win. Compared to the numbers of likely and registered voters it's a large gap.

[Dangerous A 0]

Very cool quote, Verne. What is the source?

[Jobber of the Week 0]

He means ABC, and there's no mention of what kind of party sampling they were using, even though they collected that data since they knew who belonged to what party in their Nader poll.

 

This doesn't say who anyone is voting for or even party data, it just simply says that a random number of adults they called think the incumbant will win in a system that favors incumbants.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Actually i think ABC skewed the results so the Bush supporters will be overconfident and not show up to vote.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

File this under "polls to make you start drinking":

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry pulled into a statistical dead heat with President Bush in a seesawing battle for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Monday.

 

The latest three-day tracking poll showed Kerry and Bush deadlocked at 45 percent apiece barely two weeks before the Nov. 2 election. The president had a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that.

 

About 7 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided between the two White House rivals.

 

"This is, as I have said before, the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead," pollster John Zogby said.

 

Unless the undecided voters (that vote) don't break for Kerry by at least a majority (which would be weird), then a draw isn't that great for the President. Especially compared to a four point lead.

 

I wish that John Kerry wins this election in just a night. I'd prefer getting to sleep by 1am on election night.

 

(although, I think I went to bed at 1am in 2000, that whole thing is something I don't want to repeat, ever)

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

the full Zogby quote:

 

Pollster John Zogby:"To bring Ronald Reagan into this picture: 'There they go again'. Kerry had a good day on Sunday. If I were to factor in the leaners in the 3-day track, it would be Kerry 47.2% to Bush 46.6%. I'm not sure it's wise to put leaners in the equation at this point in the campaign because it is artificial -- but that is how close all of this is proving to be.

 

"This is, as I have said before, the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead.

 

"Kerry is back to consolidating his support among Democrats, 82%-11%, and now holds a 44%-37% lead among Independents (who still have 14% undecided).

 

"Today's results read like a Michelin Guide (or AAA Road Atlas): Kerry leads in big cities (53%-37%), while Bush trumps in rural areas (53%-39%). Bush holds a very slim advantage in the suburbs (48%-43%), but they are tied at 45% in small cities.

 

"Kerry now has a 4 point lead among Catholics (Gore won this group by 5 in 2000). There is a continued lack of evidence that Bush is making any headway among Jewish voters (a small sub-sample, but the average of all days of polling throughout the year and in this round does not reveal any Bush progress).

 

"Interestingly, there is no likeability gap. Both men have near identical ratings."

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Pew has a 7 point swing on RV (from 48-41 Bush to 45-45) and a 5 point swing in LV (from 49-44 Bush to 47-47)

 

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=229

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

We need to settle for the fact that this is going to be another 2000. And start drinking.

[bob_barron 0]

RCP has it 227-210 Bush with 101 votes (I think) undecided

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Really Conservative Politics also discludes Zogby and includes Strategic Vision polls. Neither side has an edge here, regardless of what RCP thinks.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

RCP is down from 264-237 Bush (their count last Wednesday)

 

Strategic Vision is very very questionable. Unless New Jersey is a real swing state.

[bob_barron 0]

Really Conservative Politics also discludes Zogby and includes Strategic Vision polls. Neither side has an edge here, regardless of what RCP thinks.

They actually don't factor in Strategic Vision in their poll averages anymore.

 

Because SV had Bush by 8 in Ohio and they didnt factor it in.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Strategic Vision is a Republican commissioned poll.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

They include SV in Colorado.

[bob_barron 0]

Yea I know that.

 

RCP posts their findings but they don't factor it in when they do the RCP average nor they do use it to affect the electoral count

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

what's the minimum for Bush to have in other to beat the surge of undecided voters?

 

I've heard Rove claim Bush has to have a 4 point lead

 

I've heard that 2/3rds to 86% of undecided voters go to the challenger

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Good post on MYDD by Chris Bowers about RCP and poll fishing

[NoCalMike 0]

We need to settle for the fact that this is going to be another 2000. And start drinking.

B-I-N-G-O

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

My dorm is already bracing for Nov. 2. We're collecting vodka and beer.