Electoral Vote Predictor 2004.

[cabbageboy 0]

I saw that goofy shit about Bush going to Crawford and all that, as though there is going to be some Oct. surprise. I really doubt it to be honest. Look, if Bin Laden is miraculously captured or killed a week before the election it's going to be so blatant that I doubt it'll even swing voters to Bush. In fact I bet it might even have an opposite effect, where people get disgusted by such an obvious ploy.

 

Bush is better off not doing any shocking surprises. Doing something like capturing Bin Laden at this point only brings Bin Laden back into the public eye and raises questions as to why we haven't gone after him before. Nobody is really talking about Bin Laden right now, and really that is to Bush's advantage.

 

As far as some of the polls go, I'd say FL and OH are a total dead heat. As far as WI goes, Kerry will win that state. Since the debates have ended I haven't seen anyone much but Strategic Vision (and we know how reliable they are) that has Bush up there. Basically, if it was Gore's last time, it's Kerry this time....albeit easier, since Nader won't get as much.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

2000 poll average, October 31st to November 6th:

 

(info from http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm )

 

Bush - 46.8%

Gore - 43.2%

Nader - 4%

Buchanan - 0.9%

Undecided - 5.0%

 

Gallup average, October 31st to November 6th (8 polls)

 

Bush - 47.5%

Gore - 43.8%

Nader - 4.1%

Buchanan - 0.8%

Undecided - 4%

 

In that week, there were 53 polls released, 47 with Bush leads, 2 with Gore leads and 4 ties

 

As for the polls from October 14th, 2000 until October 20, 2000

 

Bush - 45.8%

Gore - 42%

Nader - 4.2%

Buchanan - 0.9%

Undecided - 7.2%

 

And here were the four polls released on October 20th, 2000

 

ABC (tracking): 48-45 Bush

Gallup: 51-40 Bush

Newsweek - 48-41 Bush

Reuters/MSN - 45-44 Bush

 

That week had 30 polls, 28 with Bush leads and 2 ties

 

Gallup average for that week (out of 7 polls)

 

Bush - 48.6%

Gore - 41.7%

Nader - 3.6%

Buchanan - .4%

Undecided - 5.7%

 

So yeah.. we'll see who is right and how much Gallup is wrong.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

this ties in for Kerry and Florida:

 

via the Washington Post

 

John Kerry's Senior Brigade

In Palm Beach County, Dedicated Retirees Get Out the Vote

 

By Ann Gerhart

Washington Post Staff Writer

Thursday, October 21, 2004; Page C01

 

DELRAY BEACH, Fla.

 

At Kerry-Edwards headquarters last week, the seniors were sadly shaking their heads because an absentee ballot had not reached the man in hospice care in time. His dying wish was to cast a vote against President Bush, and if only he had signed the ballot before he died, it would have counted.

 

God forbid that should happen to one of them.

 

So they stream by the hundreds into the office here, volunteers in their seventies and eighties, die-hard Democrats, many of them Jewish, still irritated about the famous Palm Beach County butterfly ballot of 2000. Some estimate that the confusing ballot caused a couple thousand of their comrades to vote for Pat Buchanan when they meant to support their Joey, vice presidential candidate Joe Lieberman, and they are out to avenge all that has happened since. They tick off the war, the economy, Social Security, prescription drug benefits, homeland security, education and the man in the Oval Office, whom they regard with suspicion for a perceived lack of intellectual rigor. They don't talk that much about John Kerry.

 

Victor Villandre, 65, a retired high school physics teacher from Long Island, is the office's volunteer coordinator. "Those people," he says, waving a hand at the dozens of gray heads huddled over television tray tables, making calls, "are the patriots. They really love their country, and they are afraid that this is their last chance to take it back."

 

It's a last dance for the children of the New Deal. Their Florida was supposed to be a retirement heaven of palm trees and golf courses and early-bird specials. And now here they are, nearly frantic with passion and purpose, canvassing hours each day in the hot sun, bunions and all.

 

Shirley Zarwan, 79, has just come back to the office after standing in front of a dollar store, buttonholing shoppers. She has given up tennis and bridge. "We have two weeks to go," she says, "and I would give up anything."

 

She sets aside a little money each week and doles it out to various Democratic pleas for money, "Hillary, Bill, Carville, Terry, they're all asking." She does not worry that she is spending her children's inheritance. "That's why I'm doing this!" she says. "It's their future. They have to pay down this debt!"

 

The most dedicated of the seniors show up seven days a week, 10 and 12 hours a day. Already they have collected more than 60,000 absentee ballots countywide, distributed more than 65,000 campaign buttons, according to the paid Kerry staffers, who are all in their twenties. From this office, one of five in Palm Beach County, the volunteers make 8,000 calls a day, contacting likely voters, asking them if they need a ride to the polls, explaining the new early voting rules. The large cardboard sheet on the wall asking for Election Day drivers had 150 slots. It's full, and the new goal is 300.

 

This is a cohort using activism to defy the disillusionment and loss of control that can accompany aging. Gerontologists long have linked physical and mental engagement with a fulfilling retired life. And with 537 votes being all that divided a sea of nearly 6 million votes cast in Florida in 2000, both presidential campaigns have found it easy to recruit volunteers.

 

Particularly feverish is the activity at this Kerry-Edwards office, inside the converted Lady of America fitness center, where people are warned to watch their step on the bouncy aerobics floor.

 

"They're so passionate," says Lale Mamaux, the campaign's local press secretary. "We run out of signs, they make their own signs. They are really informed, and they have all the time to do this."

 

Elayne Maidy, 76, spent nearly 20 years as property manager for a Silver Spring apartment building. Now she stands in her tennis shoes at the front desk, tapping her coral acrylic nails, peering over her rhinestone-studded reading glasses at people who come through the door every few minutes.

 

"We're out of buttons again," she says. "Want a sticker? How about a sign? You could put it in your car."

 

"Been here before? You signed up to drive? That's wonderful! Are you a veteran, by any chance? That's wonderful! Hon, come with me, and I'll put you on the phone for the veterans." She takes a man by the hand and leads him away.

 

When she returns, she says proudly, "The other day I had a 98-year-old man; he hadn't voted in years."

 

Four years ago, between rounds of canasta, she did some work for Al Gore. This time, she's here every day. "This is the most important election of our lifetime," she says, "and let me tell you, honey, I have seen a lot of elections. It's my grandchildren I'm worried sick about. At my age, what difference does it make to me? Can we go to any place and get into a war? This bothers me terrible."

 

There's a fight on for the Jewish vote in Palm Beach County, where the Democrats have a solid registration edge, and the campaign button with "Kerry-Edwards" written in Hebrew is a popular item. The Republican chair, Sid Dinerstein, is fond of saying that the county's Jews are so old, "they still think Roosevelt is on the ticket."

 

"I wish he were!" says Zarwan. "I wish Clinton were." She may not be as enthusiastic about Kerry, but, she says, Jews are predominantly Democrats "because of the teachings of the Torah," which commands Jews to reach beyond themselves to help others.

 

Rosalie Weiss, 79, has five grandchildren, "all of whom are the age to be conscripted," she says. Bush's assertions that he will not reinstate the draft and a decisive House vote against such a bill "do not reassure me at all," she says. Her late husband, an engineer, was an executive for the company that did all the heating and air-conditioning work for the World Trade Center. He regarded the towers as his "crowning achievement," she says, and feels grateful that he wasn't alive to see them fall.

 

"I was 12 years old when Hitler marched into Vienna," she says, as she steers her car carefully toward a large retirement complex where she will canvass. "I remember cowering in a corner, when they marched in and just ravaged my parents' home. I see so many parallels today -- the sneak-and-peek aspect of the Patriot Act, the disdain for the intellectual and the academic that this administration has."

 

She knocks on 78 doors, carefully recording each contact on her sheet of registered voters. It takes a long time because the old folks who cautiously open the shades then want to discuss politics. It can be a lonely life here in the modest bungalows, and residents crave the social contact of voting. Casper Garber, 98, refuses Weiss's offer of an absentee ballot application and says he will take the bus to the community's clubhouse to vote on Election Day.

 

Florence Brenner, 80, says, "I'm with you 100 percent, no, 150 percent. But how are we going to protect the vote?" Robert Liptzer, also 80, is a registered Republican. "I'm certainly not happy with Bush," he says. He takes 10 drugs, and some of them cost more on the president's prescription drug plan than they did before he bought the card.

 

An 87-year-old man who lives alone pushes his walker to the door and invites Weiss inside. On his bulletin board is a hand-printed note that reads: "If I should die, please let Rubin Memorial pick up the body. I am all paid up." Weiss, who is widowed, helps him fill out his application. He flirts with her, and tells her she must come back to help him with the ballot.

 

Back at headquarters, Maidy gets a broad smile when asked if Democratic fervor helps her get a date. Widowed for 32 years, Maidy has been gently fending off a persistent suitor who keeps calling her for dinner. "I have to be honest with you," she recalls telling him, "this is my passion right now."

 

And then, after more calls, she relented. "I told him, 'You have a beautiful speaking voice,' " her voice husky and sexy. "Why don't you come on over here and let me" -- and here she pauses, smiling slyly -- "put you on the phone bank!"

 

What's the turnout rate for Senior Citizens?

 

70 or 80 percent?

 

I'd imagine the efforts to get them out will be vastly expanded this year.

 

And those don't sound like the actions of a scared group. But the actions of a group which is angry and willing to help defeat Bush.

 

One turnout estimate is 121 million. That would be 17 million higher than 1992 and 2000.

 

Either way.. the turnout of 104 million will be surpassed this November.

 

a link on the 121 million estimate: http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/21/171752/65#readmore

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

a few turnout-related questions

 

#1) Do you believe there really 4 million evangelical voters who stayed home in 2000?

 

It's possible. Although I think a lot of those 4 million live in safe Bush states such as Texas, Utah and so on. States such as Oklahoma only had 55% of registered voters show up in 2000.

 

#2) Will the marriage "protection" amendments in several states deliver some of those voters?

 

Maybe. But, a lot of those amendments will pass easily. An amendment in Oklahoma is leading by 50 points. Although people will show up to vote for Tom Coburn, Brad Carson or a woman who says the CIA put a chip in her head.

 

But i'm pretty sure Alabama will repeal the parts of their constitution relating to school segregation and the poll tax, no matter ceremonial that vote will be.

 

And Alaska could legalize Marijuana, but it'd have the same effect to everyday life as the Alabama amendment.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

last week's numbers are in parantheses

 

NEWSWEEK POLL

1,008 registered voters, including 880 likely voters--conducted Thursday and Friday

 

Registered Voters

 

KERRY 46 (46)

BUSH 46 (48)

NADER 2

 

KERRY 47 (47)

BUSH 47 (48)

 

Likely Voters

 

BUSH 48 (50)

KERRY 46 (44)

NADER 2

 

BUSH 48 (50)

KERRY 47 (45)

 

NEWSWEEK POLL - 2000

10/18-20/00 - 800LV

BUSH 48

GORE 41

 

10/25-27/00 - 818LV

BUSH 49

GORE 41

 

In the new poll, fully 77 percent of Kerry voters say Nov. 2 is the “single most important election” of their lifetime (37 percent), or more important than most other elections (40 percent). In comparison, 27 percent of Bush supporters view this as the single most important elec­tion of their lifetime, while 35 percent view it as more important than most other elec­tions. Thirty-five percent of Bush support­ers and 21 percent of Kerry supporters say this election is about as important as any other.

 

(..)

 

Bush’s approval rating is basically constant: 46 percent this week vs. 47 percent last week. And 46 percent of registered voters and 47 percent of likely voters would like to see the president re-elect­ed, 48 percent of both likely and registered voters would not.

 

And the party ID sample apparently still favors Republicans

 

Here's the party numbers for the LVs:

 

Bush has 9% among Democrats

Kerry has 6% among Republicans

Kerry leads 52-38 among Independent voters

 

and yet.. Bush is in the lead

[jesse_ewiak 0]

That whole Newsweek poll with a tied race? Err...

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041023/nysa012_1.html

 

363 Republicans (plus or minus 6) - 38%

307 Democrats (plus or minus 6) - 31%

296 Independents (plus or minus 7) - 32%

 

EDIT: Got two polls confused. But, if Kerry is tied in a poll where GOP turnout is up by 7, then what will happen in the real election where the DNC will win turnout?

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

THE DNC WILL NOT WIN TURNOUT AND IF THEY DO, THEY CHEATED

[Guest MikeSC]

Actually, the phrase Kerry's people use is if all votes are counted, Kerry will win.

 

Thus, if Bush wins, somebody cheated.

-=Mike

[Styles 0]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 257 Bush 254

 

Looks as close as its ever been....

[2GOLD 0]

So Florida decides it again?

 

Wonderful.

 

Here we f'n go again!

[bob_barron 0]

RCP has it 234-211 for Bush

[CBright7831 0]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 257 Bush 254

 

Looks as close as its ever been....

Kerry 257

Bush 254

[Styles 0]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:  Kerry 257  Bush 254

 

Looks as close as its ever been....

Kerry 257

Bush 254

Didn't I say that?

[bob_barron 0]

Way to bring the content.

 

And Ohio is a tie and Hawaii isn't a solid blue.

 

That site is kind of sketchy if you ask me

[CBright7831 0]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 257   Bush 254

 

Looks as close as its ever been....

Kerry 257

Bush 254

Didn't I say that?

D'OH!!!

[Jobber of the Week 0]

Looks as close as its ever been....

Oh for the love of god, Florida... Another dead tie poll where Nader walks away with one or two percent.

[Styles 0]

Looks as close as its ever been....

Oh for the love of god, Florida... Another dead tie poll where Nader walks away with one or two percent.

As long as he polls less than 5%, I'll win $20 bucks on a bet...

[bob_barron 0]

President Bush (news - web sites) held a two-point national lead on Democratic rival John Kerry (news - web sites) for the third consecutive day, and held small leads over Kerry in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Sunday.

 

Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll of the race for the White House, a statistical dead heat that was within the poll's margin of error. He led 47-45 percent the two previous days.

 

 

Initial polling of 10 crucial battleground states, which began on Sunday and will run each day through Nov. 1, also showed tight races between the president and the Massachusetts senator in several of the biggest states.

 

 

In Florida, Bush led Kerry 49-46 percent, a statistical dead heat within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. In Ohio, Bush's lead was a more solid 47-42 percent. Kerry led Bush 47-45 percent in Pennsylvania.

 

 

The states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania and their combined 68 electoral votes are the biggest prizes remaining as the tight race for the White House enters its last full week of campaigning before the Nov. 2 election.

 

 

Kerry had a solid lead in Michigan, at 52-42 percent, and slight leads within the margin of error in Colorado and Minnesota. Bush had a 49-44 percent lead in New Mexico, and slight leads within the margin of error in Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin.

 

 

The number of undecided voters in the national poll fell to 4 percent. Neither candidate has been able to break 50 percent since the poll began on Oct. 7.

 

 

UNDECIDED VOTERS

 

 

Pollster John Zogby said the tense White House battle evoked memories of the disputed 2000 election narrowly won by Bush over Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites). At this stage of the 2000 race, Bush had a one-point lead over Gore in the tracking poll.

 

 

Zogby said only one in five of undecided voters felt Bush deserved a second term in the White House.

 

 

"These are the most important people in America today. Well over 90 percent of undecideds tell us they're going to vote and only 20 percent say the president deserves to be re-elected," he said.

 

 

The national poll of 1,206 likely voters was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1.

 

 

The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites), blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1 percent of likely voters.

 

 

The polls of 600 likely voters in each of 10 battleground states were taken Thursday through Sunday and have a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points in each state.

 

 

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Kerry led 49-45 percent; Florida, Bush led 49-46 percent; Iowa, Bush led 47-45 percent; Michigan, Kerry led 52-42 percent; Minnesota, Kerry led 46-45 percent; New Mexico, Bush led 49-44 percent; Nevada, Bush led 48-44 percent; Ohio, Bush led 47-42 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry led 47-45 percent; and Wisconsin, Bush led 48-45 percent.

[SuperJerk 0]

Actually, the phrase Kerry's people use is if all votes are counted, Kerry will win.

 

Thus, if Bush wins, somebody cheated.

-=Mike

Just like last time!

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

And the new Gallup is in

 

LV: 51-46 Bush (down from 52-44)

 

and the samples!

 

Likely Voters

 

Poll of October 14-16

Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

 

Total Sample = 788

GOP: 296 (38%)

Dem: 278 (35%)

Ind: 211 (27%)

 

Poll of October 22-24, 2004

Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-46%

 

Total Sample = 1195

GOP: 466 (39%)

Dem: 406 (34%)

Ind: 321 (27%)

 

and the RV is pretty much a tie

 

Registered Voters

 

Poll of October 14-16

Reflected Bush Winning by 50%-46%

 

Total Sample: 942

GOP: 348 (37%)

Dem: 327 (35%)

Ind: 259 (27%)

 

Poll of October 22-24

Reflected Bush Winning by 49%-48%

 

Total Sample: 1461

GOP: 542 (37%)

Dem: 500 (34%)

Ind: 411 (28%)

 

Gallup with two gains.. a gain in Kerry's total and in the number of Republicans sampled

 

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

this time in 2000:

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/st.../tracking.poll/

[bob_barron 0]

Monday,October 25 2004

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer.

 

In our initial electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.

 

As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.

 

While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.

 

Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.

 

While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.

 

As the race sits today, the President holds roughly a three point lead in the national race. At the state level, using the RCP state averages to allocate the Electoral College, President Bush would win 306 - 232. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on that electoral tally. If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186. A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play. A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.

 

Keep an eye on the RCP National Average. Eight days out it shows Bush ahead by roughly three points. Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout. J. McIntyre 11:28 am Link | Email | Send to a Friend

[Styles 0]

Kerry 247 Bush 285

[bob_barron 0]

-------State Polls-------

FL: CNN/USAT/Gallup: Bush 51, Kerry 43, Nader 1, Zogby: Bush 48, Kerry 47

Rasmussen: Bush 48, Kerry 48, Survey USA: Kerry 50, Bush 48

Zogby: OH: Bush + 1| PA: Kerry + 3| MI: Kerry + 9 | WI: Bush +2 | MN: Kerry +5 | IA: Bush +3 | CO: Kerry + 1| NM: Bush +8 | NV: Bush + 6

NH: Franklin Pierce: Kerry 50, Bush 41, Nader 1 | NC: SUSA: Bush 54, Kerry 44

[Styles 0]

-------State Polls-------

FL: CNN/USAT/Gallup: Bush 51, Kerry 43, Nader 1, Zogby: Bush 48, Kerry 47

Rasmussen: Bush 48, Kerry 48, Survey USA: Kerry 50, Bush 48

Zogby: OH: Bush + 1| PA: Kerry + 3| MI: Kerry + 9 | WI: Bush +2 | MN: Kerry +5 | IA: Bush +3 | CO: Kerry + 1| NM: Bush +8 | NV: Bush + 6

NH: Franklin Pierce: Kerry 50, Bush 41, Nader 1 | NC: SUSA: Bush 54, Kerry 44

Well, that clears up everything! Nov. 2nd is going to be a LONG night...

[teke184 0]

-------State Polls-------

FL: CNN/USAT/Gallup: Bush 51, Kerry 43, Nader 1, Zogby: Bush 48, Kerry 47

Rasmussen: Bush 48, Kerry 48, Survey USA: Kerry 50, Bush 48

Zogby: OH: Bush + 1| PA: Kerry + 3| MI: Kerry + 9 | WI: Bush +2 | MN: Kerry +5 | IA: Bush +3 | CO: Kerry + 1| NM: Bush +8 | NV: Bush + 6

NH: Franklin Pierce: Kerry 50, Bush 41, Nader 1 | NC: SUSA: Bush 54, Kerry 44

Well, that clears up everything! Nov. 2nd is going to be a LONG night...

That's why I'm taking leave on Wednesday the 3rd... I'm going to stay up drinking Hurricanes, Cuba Libres, martinis, and whatever else I can find in my Big Book Of Bartending guide and watching election returns come in until I either hear "George W. Bush has been re-elected" or "GODDAMMIT, this is Florida 2000 all over again!"

[Jobber of the Week 0]

Actually, the phrase Kerry's people use is if all votes are counted, Kerry will win.

 

Thus, if Bush wins, somebody cheated.

  -=Mike

Just like last time!

This time, I'm assuming at the start that Florida is going to be Jeb'ed no matter what the polls say. I've been more interested in Ohio much more than FL.

[teke184 0]

Actually, the phrase Kerry's people use is if all votes are counted, Kerry will win.

 

Thus, if Bush wins, somebody cheated.

   -=Mike

Just like last time!

This time, I'm assuming at the start that Florida is going to be Jeb'ed no matter what the polls say. I've been more interested in Ohio much more than FL.

Florida being in either column won't have a damn thing to do with Jeb.

 

You're right, though, in that Ohio will be one of the flash points come Election Day. Between Ohio and Pennsylvania, there are about 50 electoral votes tied up that will probably end up deciding the election and things have been looking fucking dirty so far.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

thoughts on Ohio

 

Turnout is key

 

the people who voted Nader in 2000 may come out to vote Kerry

 

Some Bush voters could cross over. Some Gore voters could cross over.

 

We'll see when it happens.

[Guest MikeSC]

thoughts on Ohio

 

Turnout is key

 

the people who voted Nader in 2000 may come out to vote Kerry

 

Some Bush voters could cross over. Some Gore voters could cross over.

 

We'll see when it happens.

And the election has just been...McCarverized!

This time, I'm assuming at the start that Florida is going to be Jeb'ed no matter what the polls say. I've been more interested in Ohio much more than FL.

I assumed he meant that the Dems would peddle lies and mistruths to try and de-legitimize Bush again.

-=Mike