Electoral Vote Predictor 2004.

[bob_barron 0]

I'm going to Pizza Pizza getting me a large pepperoni pizza and I'm just gonna pray all night

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

I assumed he meant that the Dems would peddle lies and mistruths to try and de-legitimize Bush again.

 

Lies AND mistruths?!? Hot damn! The double whammy!

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

I'm going to Pizza Pizza getting me a large pepperoni pizza and I'm just gonna pray all night

are you going to eat the pizza?

[bob_barron 0]

Yes- but if states start going for Kerry that shouldn't be- I may not be able to keep it down. :-)

[Guest MikeSC]

I assumed he meant that the Dems would peddle lies and mistruths to try and de-legitimize Bush again.

 

Lies AND mistruths?!? Hot damn! The double whammy!

Well, when you can't win legitimately, I suppose one option is to piss in the pool and ruin it for everybody.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Yes- but if states start going for Kerry that shouldn't be- I may not be able to keep it down. :-)

vomiting..

 

well.. that's a unique way to show shock and disgust at election results.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Does Gallup think you're a likely voter?

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/graphics/electionquiz/flash.htm

 

I think I get by, but i've also voted three times this year (Presidential Primary, City Council Election, State Primary), so I get points for effort

[bob_barron 0]

Zogby: FL: Bush + 4 | OH: Bush + 2 | PA: Kerry + 4 | WI: Kerry + 2 | IA: TIE |

MN: Kerry +2 | MI: Kerry +5| CO: Kerry +2 | NM: Bush +5 | NV: Bush +3

OH: Rasmussen: Bush 50, Kerry 46

SUSA: MO: Bush 52, Kerry 45, OH: Kerry 50, Bush 47, PA: Kerry 53, Bush 45

SV ®: FL: Bush 49, Kerry 47, OH: Bush 48, Kerry 47, WI: Bush 49, Kerry 44

ARG: FL: Kerry 49, Bush 46, OH: Kerry 49, Bush 47, PA: Kerry 50, Bush 47

[bob_barron 0]

President Bush (news - web sites) holds a three-point national lead over Democratic rival John Kerry (news - web sites) and has one-point leads on Kerry in the key states of Ohio and Florida, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Monday.

 

Bush led Kerry 48-45 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll of the race for the White House, gaining one point on the Massachusetts senator eight days before the Nov. 2 election. Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent the day before.

 

 

Bush also led Kerry in six of 10 crucial battleground states, but Kerry narrowed the gap to a statistically insignificant one point in the vital swing states of Ohio and Florida.

 

 

Bush now leads Kerry 48-47 percent in Florida, down from three points, and 46-45 percent in Ohio, down from five points, while Kerry leads Bush 48-45 percent in Pennsylvania. All three results are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

 

 

Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania and their combined 68 electoral votes are the biggest prizes remaining as the tight race for the White House enters the final week of campaigning.

 

 

Bush had a six-point lead in Nevada and an eight-point lead in New Mexico, while Kerry led by nine points in Michigan and five points in Minnesota. Bush's leads in Wisconsin and Iowa and Kerry's lead in Colorado were within the margin of error.

 

 

'WHO CAN TELL THIS YEAR?'

 

 

About 5 percent of likely voters are still undecided heading into the final full week of the campaign, but Bush has opened a 12-point lead on Kerry among independents.

 

 

"How will the remaining undecideds break?" pollster John Zogby asked, noting they traditionally move toward the challenger at the end of a race. "But who can tell this year?"

 

 

Bush's three-point lead is identical to the three-point lead he held on Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) in the tracking poll at this stage of the 2000 election.

 

 

The number of likely voters who thought Bush deserved re-election was 48 percent and 48 percent wanted someone new. That represented an improvement for Bush, whose presidential performance was rated as excellent or good by 48 percent while 51 percent said it was fair or poor.

 

 

The poll of 1,204 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

 

 

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

 

 

The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites), blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.1 percent of likely voters.

 

 

The state polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Friday through Monday.

 

 

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Kerry led 48-47 percent; Florida, Bush 48-47 percent; Iowa, Bush 47-44 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52-43 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 48-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 50-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 48-45 percent; and Wisconsin, Bush 48-46 percent.

[Guest Brian]

So it's still basically a tie, right?

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Yup.

[NoCalMike 0]

Just curious, what alcoholic beverages is everyone stock piling for the clusterfuck we around going to be experiencing in a few days?

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

I have a bottle of Smirnoff Vanilla Vodka and a bottle of Smirnoff Raspberry Vodka. Roommate has a case of Molson XXX. We might need more.

[teke184 0]

I'll be sampling much out my liquor cabinet that night, but I mainly plan on working on a bottle of Captain Morgan and a bottle of Southern Comfort.

[Styles 0]

Kerry 247 Bush 285

 

 

Arkansas is UP FOR GRABS~!

 

Still bitterly close, but recent trends seem to indicate Kerry will take Pennsylvania, but Bush will take Florida and Ohio which is all he needs really. Having Arizona and New Mexico is big, and if he can pull in Iowa and/or Wisconsin it could really secure victory, especially if Kerry is taking Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

Just curious, what alcoholic beverages is everyone stock piling for the clusterfuck we around going to be experiencing in a few days?

No more than normal. I'm fascinated by this.

[bob_barron 0]

Kerry's not getting Colorado. I think Arkansas could be another abberation- I think the state is solid Bush.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

I think you're discounting Colorado a bit too soon.

 

Salazar could have legs and draw in quite a few Kerry votes. We'll see; I think that's a tossup.

[teke184 0]

From most polls I've seen, Colorado is solid Bush territory. Kerry pulling all ads and appearances from there has pretty much sealed it.

 

I figure Arkansas is safe unless Clinton campaigns heavily there (and actually gets a positive response), but the chances of him doing so are low because Kerry needs Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania much more than Arkansas. (Arkansas has been close lately but, frankly, there have been few polls there by reliable companies. I tend to ignore Zogby et all.)

 

Hawaii won't matter too much in the electoral college, barring an evenly split race down the line, as their voting closes so much later than every mainland state and, as a result, knows who the likely winner is. The only thing it can do is convince each side to waste resources there that may be more effective elsewhere.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

In reality, turnout is going to be important in Colorado. Neither side really has campaigned that hard there, from what I've seen, which makes the local elections that much more important. The fact that Coors is such a weak candidate -- and the fact that Salazar is so widely liked by Colorado democrats -- could make it a true tossup. There are other factors outside of the RCP average that come into play here.

[teke184 0]

Let's also not forget the widespread newstories about voter registration fraud in Colorado...

 

I believe one guy said that he registered 30 times because his buddies, who were registration workers, wanted the per-head credit for signing him up.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

I sincerely doubt voter fraud will play a large role in this election. Call it a hunch.

[teke184 0]

Depends...

 

If Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and/or Colorado are in question AND the votes involved will make a difference in the election, there will be accusations of disenfranchisement from the left and voter fraud from the right.

 

 

Other states such as Tennessee are reporting registration fraud as well but are NOT battleground states.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

The thing is, this is all already being investigated. It's not like we're going to be figuring this stuff out on election night. I don't think the fraud/disenfranchisement is going to be as big a story as we're making it out to be right now. Again, just a hunch.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

here's what I heard about the Republican-led challenges in heavily-Republican Licking county, Ohio.

 

55 challenges, all 55 were stuck down.

 

And some of the people challenged were Republicans who were a bit displeased with being challenged

[bobobrazil1984 0]

new/un-likely voter turnout will basically decide the election. The balance of people who didnt vote in '00 who do vote here in '04. according to polls, more of them seem to favor kerry, but the laziness/apathy of general america is well known. if new/un turnout is bigger than expected, its a kerry win. smaller or small, whatever, and bush will win.

[NoCalMike 0]

back to the alcohol. I have 12 MGDs, and a cabinet full of liquor. I am hoping the 151 won't be necessary.

[bob_barron 0]

October 27, 2004 - Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Terrorism Concerns, Campaign Visit Help President

 

President George W. Bush has closed a four-point gap with Democratic challenger John Kerry and the two candidates are locked in a 46 - 46 percent tie among New Jersey likely voters, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided.

 

 

Kerry had a 49 - 45 percent lead among likely voters, with 1 percent for Nader, in an October 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

 

 

Among registered voters backing President Bush, 79 percent say they are voting more for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 50 percent say they are voting more for the Democrat while 45 percent say they are voting more against Bush.

 

 

A New Jersey visit from a presidential candidate is "very important" in deciding how they vote, 27 percent of registered voters say, with 26 percent who say "somewhat important."

 

 

"We've counted carefully and frequently, but Sen. Kerry hasn't been able to pull away from President Bush in New Jersey, a state which has gone from Democratic blue to dead heat purple," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The outcome is in the hands of a small group of undecided voters." Quinnipiac University Poll/October 27, 2004 - page 2

 

 

"Bush's quick drop in to New Jersey last week probably helped him. Will Kerry and/or former President Clinton stop by before Tuesday?" Carroll added.

 

 

Given four choices, 30 percent of New Jersey voters list terrorism as the most important issue in the presidential race, followed by 27 percent who list the economy, 26 percent who list the situation in Iraq and 13 percent who list health care.

 

 

Asked who would do a better job on these issues, New Jersey voters say:

53 - 37 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism;

49 - 42 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;

48 - 42 percent that Bush would do a better job on Iraq;

51 - 38 percent that Kerry would do a better job on health care.

 

"Many New Jersey voters face security checks as they commute to New York or Philadelphia each day. They remember 700 Garden State neighbors lost on September 11 and see the wounded skyline where the World Trade Center stood. Here, more than in any other battleground state surveyed by Quinnipiac University, terrorism emerges as the top campaign issue," Carroll said.

 

 

"And dealing with terrorism is President Bush's strongest voter appeal. Even 24 percent of Democrats say Bush would do a better job dealing with terrorism."

 

 

From October 21 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,179 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 852 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

 

 

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

 

 

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.

 

 

LIKELY VOTERS ...............................

SMONE WLDN'T

JK GWB RN ELSE VOTE DK/NA

 

Oct 27, 2004 46 46 2 1 - 6

Oct 19, 2004 49 45 1 - - 4

Oct 6, 2004 49 46 2 1 - 3

Sep 21, 2004 48 48 2 - - 2

 

 

 

 

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

 

 

SMONE WLDN'T

JK GWB RN ELSE VOTE DK/NA

 

Oct 27, 2004 45 41 2 1 - 12

Oct 19, 2004 46 39 2 - - 12

Oct 6, 2004 44 42 1 1 - 12

Sep 21, 2004 47 43 3 1 - 6

Aug 25, 2004 49 39 4 1 1 7

Aug 5, 2004 49 36 6 1 2 6

Jun 23, 2004 46 40 7 - 1 6

May 20, 2004 46 43 5 1 1 5

 

 

 

 

TREND: If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?

 

 

Iraq Econ Terror HlthCr DK/NA

 

Oct 27, 2004 26 27 30 13 4

Oct 19, 2004 25 24 27 18 5

Oct 6, 2004 24 29 31 12 5

Sep 21, 2004 24 25 30 16 5

 

 

 

 

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

 

 

GWB JK DK/NA

 

Oct 27, 2004 38 51 11

Oct 19, 2004 35 56 9

Oct 6, 2004 33 53 14

Sep 21, 2004 36 55 9

 

 

 

 

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

 

 

GWB JK DK/NA

 

Oct 27, 2004 42 49 10

Oct 19, 2004 40 50 10

Oct 6, 2004 42 47 11

Sep 21, 2004 44 50 6

 

 

 

 

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

 

 

GWB JK DK/NA

 

Oct 27, 2004 48 42 10

Oct 19, 2004 48 44 9

Oct 6, 2004 49 42 9

Sep 21, 2004 49 44 7

 

 

 

 

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

 

 

GWB JK DK/NA

 

Oct 27, 2004 53 37 10

Oct 19, 2004 53 37 10

Oct 6, 2004 52 38 10

Sep 21, 2004 55 38 8

 

 

 

 

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1)As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.

 

 

Likely

Voters

 

Kerry 46%

Bush 46

Nader 2

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) -

DK/NA 6

 

 

 

 

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

 

 

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran

 

Kerry 45% 8% 81% 43% 41% 48% 38%

Bush 41 84 10 34 46 35 47

Nader 2 1 1 4 3 1 4

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 1

DK/NA 12 7 7 17 9 14 10

 

Philly

Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

 

Kerry 55% 46% 38% 51% 34%

Bush 27 37 48 35 53

Nader 1 2 1 5 2

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - -

DK/NA 15 13 12 7 10

 

No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000

Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush

 

Kerry 42% 50% 76% 44% 25% 80% 9%

Bush 41 39 14 38 64 7 78

Nader 2 2 3 3 1 3 2

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 - - 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 -

DK/NA 13 7 5 14 10 10 10

 

Age in years...............

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

 

Kerry 52% 47% 39% 42%

Bush 35 40 45 44

Nader 4 - 2 1

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1

DK/NA 8 12 11 13

 

Annual hshold income

<30 30-50 50-100 >100K

 

Kerry 57% 47% 43% 39%

Bush 22 37 47 51

Nader 2 5 2 -

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 -

DK/NA 18 9 8 8

 

 

 

 

2. (If candidate choice q1)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

 

 

Kerry Bush

Vtr q1 Vtr q1

 

Made up 94% 96%

Might change 5 4

DK/NA 1 -

 

 

 

 

3a. (If Kerry voter q1)Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?

 

 

Kerry

Vtr q1

 

For Kerry 50%

Against Bush 45

DK/NA 5

 

 

 

 

3b. (If Bush voter q1)Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?

 

 

Bush

Vtr q1

 

For Bush 79%

Against Kerry 18

DK/NA 3

 

 

 

 

4. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?

 

 

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran

 

Iraq 26% 18% 35% 25% 26% 26% 25%

Economy 27 19 29 31 28 26 25

Terrorism 30 54 14 25 32 27 34

Health care 13 6 18 15 11 16 11

DK/NA 4 4 3 5 3 5 4

 

 

 

 

5. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

 

 

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran

 

Bush 38% 77% 8% 34% 40% 36% 42%

Kerry 51 14 85 54 50 52 48

DK/NA 11 9 7 12 10 12 10

 

 

 

 

6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

 

 

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran

 

Bush 42% 83% 13% 35% 46% 38% 52%

Kerry 49 13 81 53 46 51 38

DK/NA 10 5 6 12 8 11 10

 

 

 

 

7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

 

 

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran

 

Bush 48% 87% 18% 46% 55% 42% 59%

Kerry 42 9 72 42 39 44 33

DK/NA 10 4 9 12 6 14 8

 

 

 

 

8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

 

 

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran

 

Bush 53% 90% 24% 51% 60% 46% 60%

Kerry 37 6 66 37 34 40 31

DK/NA 10 4 10 12 6 14 9

 

 

 

 

9. How important is it to your vote for President that a Presidential candidate visit New Jersey - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

 

 

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Veteran

 

Very important 27% 23% 33% 21% 23% 30% 22%

Somewhat 26 27 27 24 27 25 28

Not too 22 23 20 24 21 22 22

Not at all 25 26 20 31 29 22 27

DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1 -

 

 

 

(Is now a good time to start drinking)

[bob_barron 0]

Here's an excellent but very long analysis on Minnesota-

 

http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/csp/elections/MNSurvey.htm

[Styles 0]

Your daily map outlook...the gap is closing.

 

Kerry 257 Bush 274

 

Iowa is IN PLAY~!