Electoral Vote Predictor 2004.

[2GOLD 0]

I think Kerry's family might be just a touch...well insane.

 

He really needs to lock them in an undisclosed location, tied up with chains until the election is over.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Well, his father was a Republican who supported Israel. So, I wonder what person could have instilled these winning views in the young dork.

 

It was stated before and I'll say it again --- if you have any affection for Israel, you cannot vote for Kerry.

-=Mike

That's some silly non-correlative logic. Kerry's step-son says some dumb things. When Kerry married Theresa Heinz in 1995, this guy was already 22 years old. If you want to do the tinfoil hat thing and suspect that Kerry told his stepston to go out there and talk nasty shit about the President, go ahead. I'm sure Christmas dinner in the Heinz-Kerry household is filled with Jew jokes and discussion of what drug problem accusations to sling at the president.

 

We're electing George Bush or John Kerry, not the Bush twins or Chris Heinz. I don't give a shit about what either family says. Dumb campaign move, sure. Legitimate reason to not vote for a candidate whose values align with your own? Only if you really have no political sense at all - if you're the type of person who's swayed by a Swift Boat Vets ad or a Springsteen/R.E.M. concert for Kerry.

 

Also, your ridiculous statement implying that Kerry has a hard-on for hating Israel is nonsense. His voting record is quite pro-Israel, and he mirrors many of Bush's positions in support of Israel. If I were a Jew and serious about my Judaism, I'd be more concerned with the mandates of social morality and progression towards an evangelically Christian state that are occuring/likely to occur in a continued Bush administration.

[Guest MikeSC]

Well, his father was a Republican who supported Israel. So, I wonder what person could have instilled these winning views in the young dork.

 

It was stated before and I'll say it again --- if you have any affection for Israel, you cannot vote for Kerry.

              -=Mike

That's some silly non-correlative logic. Kerry's step-son says some dumb things. When Kerry married Theresa Heinz in 1995, this guy was already 22 years old. If you want to do the tinfoil hat thing and suspect that Kerry told his stepston to go out there and talk nasty shit about the President, go ahead. I'm sure Christmas dinner in the Heinz-Kerry household is filled with Jew jokes and discussion of what drug problem accusations to sling at the president.

 

I actually think it is. The Kerry clan has a hard time with avoiding making asinine comments in public ad inifinitum. His sister is a fucking moron. His wife is a fucking moron. His stepson is a fucking moron.

 

This isn't a small problem in that family.

 

Kerry is vowing to repair relations with our former allies. As pointed out, what is the single biggest stumbling block? Israel. They want us to condemn them and cut them loose, allowing the Arabs to slaughter them because Europeans, flat out, do not like Jews.

Also, your ridiculous statement implying that Kerry has a hard-on for hating Israel is nonsense.  His voting record is quite pro-Israel, and he mirrors many of Bush's positions in support of Israel.  If I were a Jew and serious about my Judaism, I'd be more concerned with the mandates of social morality and progression towards an evangelically Christian state that are occuring/likely to occur in a continued Bush administration.

Kerry is the one making his religion public. Bush has not and does not.

 

Kerry's party is LADEN with anti-Semites (the CBC, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton) who are fellated by party officials.

-=Mike

[BUTT 0]

Kerry 283

Bush 246

 

 

Well, that sure changed from yesterday.

[Vyce 0]

I can't put any real faith in electoral-vote.com's maps.

 

Florida is not going for Kerry - neither is New Mexico. Nevada's going to go for Bush, and as a Virginian, trust me, Bush is going to pick up VA as well. I see him getting Iowa and maybe MI as well.

 

And while Bush has a chance in Ohio, I think Kerry has a much better shot at winning it than he does Florida.

[Guest MikeSC]

Anything that has 40 point changes IN A DAY is a real bad poll.

-=Mike

[BUTT 0]

Well, yeah. I think that just goes to show that these polls really don't prove jack squat.

[Guest MikeSC]

Well, yeah. I think that just goes to show that these polls really don't prove jack squat.

Well, it shows the problems with Zogby's poll, since his poll is behind a lot of the change in numbers.

 

I still say go with RCP.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

saying a 40 point swing makes it unreliable ignores that 40 point swings are possible if Ohio or Florida switches.

 

And Zogby did have problems in 2000, such as predicting that California would be close.

 

As for the election.. it'll come down to Ohio and Florida.

 

If Kerry carries one of those states, he wins.

[Guest MikeSC]

saying a 40 point swing makes it unreliable ignores that 40 point swings are possible if Ohio or Florida switches.

 

And Zogby did have problems in 2000, such as predicting that California would be close.

 

As for the election.. it'll come down to Ohio and Florida.

 

If Kerry carries one of those states, he wins.

He won't carry EITHER of them.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

saying a 40 point swing makes it unreliable ignores that 40 point swings are possible if Ohio or Florida switches.

 

And Zogby did have problems in 2000, such as predicting that California would be close.

 

As for the election.. it'll come down to Ohio and Florida.

 

If Kerry carries one of those states, he wins.

He won't carry EITHER of them.

-=Mike

there's potential for a surprise, I'd imagine.

 

What i'm getting is a 259-232 Kerry lead, with Ohio and Florida still up in the air.

 

I would prefer getting 270 electoral votes without Ohio or Florida, but it'll be hard

[bob_barron 0]

Still 100% confident Mike?

 

Even with Green Bay up 20-7? :-)

[Guest MikeSC]

saying a 40 point swing makes it unreliable ignores that 40 point swings are possible if Ohio or Florida switches.

 

And Zogby did have problems in 2000, such as predicting that California would be close.

 

As for the election.. it'll come down to Ohio and Florida.

 

If Kerry carries one of those states, he wins.

He won't carry EITHER of them.

-=Mike

there's potential for a surprise, I'd imagine.

 

What i'm getting is a 259-232 Kerry lead, with Ohio and Florida still up in the air.

 

I would prefer getting 270 electoral votes without Ohio or Florida, but it'll be hard

Care to reveal how, since the only 2000 Bush states that Kerry is ahead in presently is NH, while Bush is leading presently in these 2000 Gore states:

IA, NM, and HI.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

saying a 40 point swing makes it unreliable ignores that 40 point swings are possible if Ohio or Florida switches.

 

And Zogby did have problems in 2000, such as predicting that California would be close.

 

As for the election.. it'll come down to Ohio and Florida.

 

If Kerry carries one of those states, he wins.

He won't carry EITHER of them.

-=Mike

there's potential for a surprise, I'd imagine.

 

What i'm getting is a 259-232 Kerry lead, with Ohio and Florida still up in the air.

 

I would prefer getting 270 electoral votes without Ohio or Florida, but it'll be hard

Care to reveal how, since the only 2000 Bush states that Kerry is ahead in presently is NH, while Bush is leading presently in these 2000 Gore states:

IA, NM, and HI.

-=Mike

I have Kerry winning both Iowa and Hawaii.

 

The Gore states = 260

minus New Mexico = 255

plus New Hampshire = 259

[jesse_ewiak 0]

On Kentucky, six weeks Bunning was up by 15. Now I've seen a couple of polls saying the race is tied.

[Guest MikeSC]

On Kentucky, six weeks Bunning was up by 15. Now I've seen a couple of polls saying the race is tied.

So, pointless slander works. Good for the Dems.

-=Mike

...I suppose the "decency police" in the DNC are still too busy fretting about the cruelty towards Max Cleland...

[Styles 0]

Green Bay 28

Washington 14 F

 

I'd be freaking out, but the Red Sox won the world series this year, so the traditional rules are out the window...

[Vyce 0]

Why freak out? I'm a diehard Redskins fan, but really, I knew going into this game the 'Skins were going to lose it.

 

Because of some cosmic turn of fate which has turned the election for Kerry?

 

No - because Brunell is pure and utter SHIT as a quarterback, and unfortunately Joe Gibbs just doesn't see it.

[Guest MikeSC]

Why freak out? I'm a diehard Redskins fan, but really, I knew going into this game the 'Skins were going to lose it.

 

Because of some cosmic turn of fate which has turned the election for Kerry?

 

No - because Brunell is pure and utter SHIT as a quarterback, and unfortunately Joe Gibbs just doesn't see it.

Gibbs is also not that solid of a coach. The game has passed him by.

 

It's not like they beat Tampa Bay by a ton in the opening game, and they pretty well dominated them.

-=Mike

[bob_barron 0]

Why did Joe Gibbs keep calling for passes when they were on the GB 45??? Give the ball to Portis for fuck sakes.

 

Mike- Are you still 100% confident?

[Vyce 0]

Why freak out?  I'm a diehard Redskins fan, but really, I knew going into this game the 'Skins were going to lose it.

 

Because of some cosmic turn of fate which has turned the election for Kerry?

 

No - because Brunell is pure and utter SHIT as a quarterback, and unfortunately Joe Gibbs just doesn't see it.

Gibbs is also not that solid of a coach. The game has passed him by.

 

It's not like they beat Tampa Bay by a ton in the opening game, and they pretty well dominated them.

-=Mike

I don't quite think the game has "passed him by" - I think Gibbs can still be successful as a coach in the NFL.

 

However, I'm almost convinced at this point that his ability to discern talent - i.e., what players will or will not work in the NFL these days - has passed him by. There's just no reason at this point, when you're 2 and FIVE, to continue with the current QB. The Brunell experiment is a dismal failure. Time to give the ball back to Ramsey and see what he can do. The kid wasn't too bad last year, we just didn't have an offensive line that could protect him, so he go the shit knocked out of him every game.....I think that's less of a problem this year, so give him the opportunity.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

I'm not entirely sure if there's any statewide numbers for the early voting, but here's some stuff from Orange County, Florida:

 

http://www.ocfelections.com/Public%20Recor...ly%20Voting.pdf

 

64,000 votes though yesterday. 30,000 are from registered Democrats.

 

280,000 out of 405,000 registered voters voted in Orange county in 2000. It went 50-48 for Gore.

 

there's numerous stories of long lines to vote in Florida. Long as in 'wait three hours or more'

 

The turnout in 2000 was 105 million votes. 54.5% of the voting age population came out. 67% of registered voters voted.

 

It'll be much higher this year.

[Guest MikeSC]

Why did Joe Gibbs keep calling for passes when they were on the GB 45??? Give the ball to Portis for fuck sakes.

 

Mike- Are you still 100% confident?

Absolutely. 52% of the vote. 300 EV.

-=Mike

[iggymcfly 0]

I don't know. I've kinda got a feeling that Kerry's going to take the election. Those new ads he's got are probably the best ads run so far, and it might be enough to sway the last few undecided voters.

 

I'm kind of anxious about the Kerry administration, as it seems that he's going to help drive the United States a little bit further into socialism, but on the other hand, he can't be that much worse of a president than Bush has been.

 

I'm still slightly hoping for Bush to win, but if you gave me the choice of Bush winning the election, or Badnarik getting 10% of the vote, and the Libertarians picking up one or two seats in Congress, I'd take the latter.

[bob_barron 0]

The national poll of 1,207 likely voters was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will end Monday.

The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.2 percent.

 

The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Thursday through Sunday.

 

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 48 percent to 47 percent; Florida, Kerry 48 percent to 47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 50 percent to 44 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52 percent to 45 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49 percent to 47 percent; New Mexico, tied 49 percent to 49 percent; Nevada, Bush 50 percent to 44 percent; Ohio, Bush 48 percent to 44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 50 percent to 45 percent, and Wisconsin, Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent.

[CBright7831 0]

It's time to start getting ready for Kerrry/Edwards White House.

[Guest MikeSC]

It's time to start getting ready for Kerrry/Edwards White House.

Well, that'll happen --- provided they buy a house, live together, and paint it white.

 

There is no chance Kerry wins.

-=Mike

[franchise632 0]

Yea because by hook or crook Bush stays in the White House. Well then we all have another 4 years of hell to live thru. In the immortal words of a fine upstanding Canadian: "Enough is enough! Its time for a change!" If John Kerry hadn't had such a herendous August of campainging this wouldn't even have been close.

[Guest MikeSC]

Yea because by hook or crook Bush stays in the White House.

He doesn't have to "cheat". He never had to "cheat".

Well then we all have another 4 years of hell to live thru. In the immortal words of a fine upstanding Canadian: "Enough is enough! Its time for a change!" If John Kerry hadn't had such a herendous August of campainging this wouldn't even have been close.

More precisely, if Kerry wasn't such a bad candidate, he would've had a HUGE lead. It's astonishing that he's losing with the press in the bag for him so obviously.

-=Mike

[Jobber of the Week 0]

Today's really proven how delusional Mike really is. Appearantly, Kerry has made a bigger issue out of his religion than Bush. How many religious talk shows has Kerry been on to campaign? While Bush hasn't been doing that circuit this year because it's locked up, he certainly was in 2000.

 

Every US President for decades has said that in an actual war between Israel and the (grits his teeth), er, Arab factions, that they'd side with Israel. Bush's record in regard to Israel is scarier because he hasn't really bothered to make any kind of a peace plan. It's not very public, but you kind of get the impression that he isn't interested in a peace plan, and wouldn't lose much sleep if Israel just went ahead with full-out genocide.

 

I'm still sure we'll win here. The only thing that could have shaken my confidence would have been if Bush had dropped Cheney for a new VP when that was rumored for a couple weeks.

 

Otherwise, the poll numbers, the idiotic debate performance, and the fact that people just don't like war unless there's damn good reason for it. These things will oust Bush.