Rob E Dangerously Posted October 20, 2004 Report Posted October 20, 2004 there's no way in hell i'm leaving my room on election night. There's a lot of stuff to keep track of on the net
teke184 Posted October 20, 2004 Report Posted October 20, 2004 My dorm is already bracing for Nov. 2. We're collecting vodka and beer. I'm already stocking up on canned goods and shotgun shells myself... Short of a decisive (5-10% OR 80-electoral vote) victory, NO ONE will be happy with the results of this election. The question is what people will do if they feel that they got screwed. EDIT- WHOOPS... those are my November 3 supplies. My November 2 supplies include a blender, ice, two large bottles of Hurricane mix, and a large assortment of alcohol.
Dr. Tyler; Captain America Posted October 20, 2004 Report Posted October 20, 2004 Couple of my buddies and I are gonna have CNN on all night and play drinking games based on whose candidate wins which state. And we'll finish the damn bottles if it's another tie.
bob_barron Posted October 20, 2004 Report Posted October 20, 2004 I'm gonna be in my room with a checklist of all the states leaning Kerry, Bush and up for grabs. I'll be freaking out all night like I did in 2000
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 20, 2004 Report Posted October 20, 2004 Election-related wagers! Will Kerry win a county in any of the following states: Alaska Utah Wyoming Nebraska Will Bush win any counties in Massachusetts? Which state will have the largest "ticket-splitting"? my picks Oklahoma (Carson/Coburn) Illinois (Keyes/Obama) Alaska (Knowles/Murkowski) Ohio (Voinovich has no real struggle for re-election) Which third party candidates will finish with over 1%? (In the Pres. race, and Senate races) here's the Election Night Timeline: http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ART...ecnighttime.php I predict they call Utah for Bush about 5 minutes after the polls close and Iowa closing the polls at 9pm is very odd, considering the polls close here at 7pm
tommytomlin Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 What time does the election coverage normally start and end?
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 7pm EST seems to be the time that coverage will kick into gear. When will it end? either early Wednesday or the middle of December
bob_barron Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 January 19th given how many lawsuits are gonna be filed
Guest MikeSC Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 I think Bush will win I think Bush will win comfortably, I do not begin to believe he has an 8 point lead. Man, you have your head up your ass even more than the other talking points issue-spouting right-wing Internet Partisans do. They're at least strongly considering the possibility of another neck and neck race. But then again, Gallup paints an even rosier picture than you do, so I have to give you credit for that. Just checking --- do you ever have a FUCKING POINT to your bitchy blathering? -=Mike
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 from the Pew poll: 16 concerns of the swing voters are closer to the concerns of the Kerry voters by a 12-2 margin the "unsure" voters leaning closer to the POVs of the Kerry voters isn't a great sign for Bush. the average concerns of all 3 groups Economy - 78% Terrorism - 77% Jobs - 76% Education - 76% Health Care - 73% -- maybe there's an inner workings or a sign with the swing. Maybe we'll drink ourselves into a stupor 12 campaign days left anything is possible and 11 days left until we can stop hearing the phrase "October Surprise"
kkktookmybabyaway Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Which state will have the largest "ticket-splitting"? Don't forget PA -- that is if you count Wacky Arlen as a Republican...
Guest MikeSC Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Which state will have the largest "ticket-splitting"? Don't forget PA -- that is if you count Wacky Arlen as a Republican... Aren't there Kerry/Specter signs in places around PA? Why on Earth did Bush campaign for that douche? -=Mike ...Toomey would've been a MUCH better choice than the RINO...
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Aren't there Kerry/Specter signs in places around PA? Philadelphia Daily News, 10/20/04 http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/l.../9963962.htm?1c The mystery of the John Kerry-Arlen Specter lawn signs in Northeast Philadelphia is solved. They're indeed the work of national Republican consultant Roger Stone, who has worked with Specter in the past. Specter campaign manager Christopher Nicholas said yesterday that he called Stone last weekend and asked him to put an end to the campaign. "I made the call Saturday morning," Nicholas said. "We asked him to stop and he agreed." Nicholas said that Specter opposes independent advocacy organizations - so-called 527 groups - and that the campaign knew nothing of the controversial signs until it got calls from the media. Nicholas said he learned of Stone's involvement from the Daily News. The signs appeared in Northeast Philadelphia about a week ago, apparently linking Specter, Pennsylvania's Republican incumbent U.S. senator, with Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee. The signs read "Kerry & Specter for Working Families." A notation on the signs said they were paid for by the Philadelphia Education Project, a political group registered three weeks ago to Carla Bartz, a woman associated with Republican attacks in a Florida election, and Gary Parenti, a Democratic operative from New York with ties to Stone. Stone is a former business partner of Craig Snyder, a former Specter aide who formed an independent group last spring to place ads on Christian radio in central Pennsylvania attacking Specter's primary opponent, U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, as being soft on abortion. Nicholas said the Specter campaign had known nothing of that effort either, and Snyder said yesterday he had been unaware of Stone's work on the Kerry-Specter signs until he saw media reports. Snyder said he and Stone, who were partners in Washington-based IKON Public Relations, haven't worked together for about three years. Specter's primary opponent, U.S. Rep. Joe Hoeffel, said it was insufficient for Specter to quietly request that Stone desist. "When these signs appeared a week ago, he should have publicly stood up and disowned it," Hoeffel said yesterday. "This is campaign trickery. He's not supporting John Kerry for president. He's trying to have it both ways, and get the benefit of these signs." *shrug* it's one of those weird deals. Why on Earth did Bush campaign for that douche? Because he was more likely to win than Toomey. Moderate Republicans in the Northeast are very hard to beat. Toomey would've been a MUCH better choice than the RINO Especially if you want Hoeffel to win the election. Feel free to gut the moderate wing of the party and replace them with Conservatives. Those four Senate seats (Snowe, Collins, Chaffee, Spector) weren't being used much anyways, so they'll be much better in the hands of the Democratic party.
CBright7831 Posted October 21, 2004 Author Report Posted October 21, 2004 I don't know who's going to win this.
Guest MikeSC Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Going with realclearpolitics.com's state poll averages: Bush is up in FL, not Kerry. Bush is up in WI, not Kerry. Kerry's lead in NM is less than a point. OH is a tie. -=Mike
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Campaign rumors: #1 - Bush is going to be in Crawford on Saturday #2 - Bush is on his way to Greely, Colorado on Sunday Taking a day of rest with 10 campaign days left would be odd. But it could be justified.
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Going with realclearpolitics.com's state poll averages: Bush is up in FL, not Kerry. Bush is up in WI, not Kerry. Kerry's lead in NM is less than a point. OH is a tie. -=Mike RCP has FL and WI as tossups on their map. Basically, neither man is officially up A one point lead for the incumbent right now is not that secure.
CBright7831 Posted October 21, 2004 Author Report Posted October 21, 2004 After the Redskins game, we'll know who the winner of the election will be.
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Go Favre! (nah.. that thing is a weird coincidence) Won't RCP drop the polls which started last Thursday when they update tomorrow? if so, that drops at least some of the following polls Newsweek (10/14-10/15): 50-44 Bush Time (10/14-10/15): 48-47 Bush Gallup (10/14-10/16): 52-44 Bush CBS News (10/14-10/17): 47-45 Bush Harris (10/14-10/17): 49.5-44.5 Bush Without those 5 polls, the RCP is 47.8-46 Bush, instead of 48.5-44.5 Bush But we'll see how the daily trackers swing and so on
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 As for E-V.. that's very unstable but I've used the EV spreadsheet to estimate the national popular vote Each state has a percentage of the popular vote. I'm using the 2000 percentage (which is very similar to the 1992 and 1996 percentages) I multiply the candidate's state number by the percentage Example: According to the poll they have up (a Survey USA poll) Kerry has 50 percent in Florida Bush has 49 percent in Florida Multiply that by 0.056566734 Which comes out as follows Kerry: 2.8283367 Bush: 2.77177 those are the percentages of their popular vote from Florida You add all those up and you get a national percentage The current percentage using this formula is Kerry: 47.15% Bush: 46.88% Nader: 0.53% Undecided/Other: 5.43%
Vern Gagne Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 I'm hoping i'll have to work that night so i can avoid watching most of the coverage.
Guest Brian Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Can John Kerry technically be the most consistently liberal senator and yet not consistent at all?
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 I'm dropping this in here http://slate.msn.com/id/2108379 and the sound file: http://img.slate.msn.com/media/52/jkhaiti.asf Kerry Speaks French But does anyone know what he said? By Chris Suellentrop Updated Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2004, at 12:24 PM PT ORLANDO—Let's see: Your opponent is characterizing you as an effete internationalist willing to "turn America's national security decisions over to international bodies or leaders of other countries." In particular, he suggests, in all seriousness, that you want to call up Jacques Chirac for permission before deploying the military. At the Republican National Convention, you were portrayed as a beret-wearing poodle named "Fifi Kerry." How should you defend yourself against these slanders? By speaking French on the stump, of course. Click here to hear John Kerry's foray into the language of Paris during a Monday rally here. I wasn't watching Kerry on stage when he made his remarks, but from the context he appears to have seen someone from Haiti and decided to acknowledge the person in his or her native tongue. What does Kerry say? My knowledge of French is limited to the lyrics to "Lady Marmalade," so I consulted my friend John Wilkerson, a Washington journalist and French speaker. He translates the first part as, "You're Haitian? OK," but says the rest sounded like gibberish. "I think at that point he was just a character on Saturday Night Live," Wilkerson says. Readers? Can anyone make it out? Post your explanations, serious or otherwise, in the Fray. Slug them "Kerry's French translation." Scotland's Sunday Herald called Kerry's French fluency a "campaign secret" yesterday. Looks like the secret is out. Here's some suggested spin for the Kerry campaign: He wasn't speaking French. He was speaking Freedom. Update, 10/19/04: According to the New York Times, Agence France-Presse, and bazillions of readers, Kerry said, "Je vais aider les Haitiens," which means, "I will help the Haitians." Sticklers say Kerry mispronounced both "Haiti" and "Haitians," which caused several people to think he said, "I will help the states." Canadians said they had the easiest time understanding Kerry, since they're used to listening to American-accented French. Assessments of Kerry's accent ranged from "impeccable" to "good" to "mediocre" to "abominable" to "better than Bush's Texas-twinged Spanglish." One correspondent wrote, "It sounds more like, 'I'm going to help the Chechens!' " My favorite fanciful translation: "I have a plan to learn French."
Guest MikeSC Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Ah, a Gallup is in Bush's family lineage. Explains that away. -=Mike
kkktookmybabyaway Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Yeah, well Kerry has a FORBES in his family tree, which means, well, I don't know...
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Ah, a Gallup is in Bush's family lineage. Explains that away. -=Mike The Reade family reunion must rock.. big time
Dr. Tyler; Captain America Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 Oh my God, I thought that was just a rumor.
Rob E Dangerously Posted October 21, 2004 Report Posted October 21, 2004 How is a 3 point Kerry lead considered a deadlock? That's like being someone saying you are involved in a traffic jam when the jam is behind you. With the pro-challenger split of undecided voters, a Kerry lead is not good for Bush AP Poll: Bush, Kerry in Dead Heat Reuters Poll: Bush Grabs One-Point Lead on Kerry Somebody needs to get a standard for headlines. But that would require the media change their templates.
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