And So it Begins

[Mik 0]

Does the sim take into account things like maturation and development? Or the effect one player can have on a lineup.

 

You know I'm talking about Cabrera and he is looking to get a boost from both categories.

 

I think that would play a role in prognosticating the 2005 Marlins.

[NYU 0]

Sim 5

NYM 95-67

Atl 82-80

Fla 80-82

Phi 76-86

Was 72-90

Nice.

 

Not extremely likely, but nice.

 

Does the sim take into account things like maturation and development? Or the effect one player can have on a lineup.

 

Exactly how involved do you think this simulator is?

[The Czech Republic 0]

If the Phillies didn't lose Pat Burrell they could've made it a closer race.

The biggest losses were in the pitching staff. Millwood missed 7 starts, Wolf missed about 10, and Padilla missed about 12. That's almost 30 starts missed from the top of the rotation. 10 of those starts were filled by Paul Abbott (1-6). Take 30 starts away from your 6th and 7th best pitchers and replace them with better starters, and you can see an improvement fairly quickly in your club.

If so, Sergio Mitre really hurt the Cubs early on

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

don't forget that the simulator is a purely statistical one, and therefore cannot take into account Braves voodoo.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Doesn't everyone have to deal with injury and depth problems, though?

Yeah. Never lose sight of the fact that any player can get injured. As for the Cubs pitching staff, I think EVERY player got injured.

That's true, but it sure as seems like certain guys are injured much more frequently than others. I don't even mean serious injuries, but those nagging ones that keep you out of the lineup for a few games at time, or might land you on the DL at least a couple times.

[Fökai 0]

Doesn't everyone have to deal with injury and depth problems, though?

Yeah. Never lose sight of the fact that any player can get injured. As for the Cubs pitching staff, I think EVERY player got injured.

That's true, but it sure as seems like certain guys are injured much more frequently than others. I don't even mean serious injuries, but those nagging ones that keep you out of the lineup for a few games at time, or might land you on the DL at least a couple times.

Mets-itis?

[Vern Gagne 0]

Mets are an example.

 

Corey Koskie always had nagging injuries, and swung like a old lady at times.

[Guest Failed Mascot]

Mets close to adding Doug Mientkiewicz

 

the Mets likely will settle for adding Doug Mientkiewicz to their alluring haul of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. The Mets last night were close to acquiring the Boston first baseman in exchange for Single-A first baseman Ian Bladergroen. Mientkiewicz is due $3.75 million in 2005, and Boston would pay his $450,000 buyout in 2006 if the Mets do not pick up a $3.75 million option.

 

Link~

 

I really wish it had been Millar. Doug's glove is awesome and this whole thing about the one ball is stupid.

[Vern Gagne 0]

My 3 year old prediction is about to come to fruition.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Does the sim take into account things like maturation and development? Or the effect one player can have on a lineup.

 

You know I'm talking about Cabrera and he is looking to get a boost from both categories.

 

I think that would play a role in prognosticating the 2005 Marlins.

 

The simulation is only as good as the statistics you give it. I used a statistical projection for Cabrera that looks at his age and statistics, and compares them to similar players to estimate his statistics for 2005. The projection I used sees him hitting 307/376/543, with 31 HRs and 119 RBIs.

 

If so, Sergio Mitre really hurt the Cubs early on

 

He did. But I do think Mitre will pitch better in the future. He's put up terrific minor league numbers, and he's just 24.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Looking at the Mets trade, the Red Sox picked up A-ball prospect Ian Bladergroen. Bladergroen hit .342/.397/.595 in the Sally League last season. Baseball America rates Bladergroen as the fourth best player in the Mets farm system. Along with the bat, he features a good glove. His season ended with a wrist injury, so it remains to be seen how he recovers. With his bat, its no wonder the Red Sox desired him.

[Mik 0]

Does the sim take into account things like maturation and development? Or the effect one player can have on a lineup.

 

You know I'm talking about Cabrera and he is looking to get a boost from both categories.

 

I think that would play a role in prognosticating the 2005 Marlins.

 

The simulation is only as good as the statistics you give it. I used a statistical projection for Cabrera that looks at his age and statistics, and compares them to similar players to estimate his statistics for 2005. The projection I used sees him hitting 307/376/543, with 31 HRs and 119 RBIs.

I could live with those numbers.

[The Man in Blak 0]

I'm not a big fan of the Mientkiewicz deal. I know he's a smooth operator at first base, but he "hit" at a clip of .238/.326/.350, which was nearly a one hundred point drop in slugging between two hitters parks in the AL.

 

Why not slot Eric Valent in LF and move Cliff Floyd to first? Floyd played 1B when he came into the league, so he can play the position, and there's less physical strain at first than in left, which increases the chances that Cliff might actually play more than 120 games this season. Plus, Valent's 27 years old and he's coming off of a very nice year of .267/.337/.481 with 13 homers in 270 ABs. Sure, he's no great shakes defensively but, according to BPro's defensive metrics, he's no less of a butcher out there than Floyd is.

 

Or, if you want to strengthen your bench a little bit (which is a defensible aspect of the Mientkiewicz deal), why not pick up Travis Lee on the cheap, instead of giving up a prospect? Both hit lefty, both play spectacular defense at 1B, but Lee probably hits the books with a nicer figure than the $3.75 million and (more importantly) allows you to keep Bladergroen for the future.

 

It just seems like there were better alternatives available.

[DerangedHermit 0]

Why not slot Eric Valent in LF and move Cliff Floyd to first? Floyd played 1B when he came into the league, so he can play the position, and there's less physical strain at first than in left, which increases the chances that Cliff might actually play more than 120 games this season. Plus, Valent's 27 years old and he's coming off of a very nice year of .267/.337/.481 with 13 homers in 270 ABs. Sure, he's no great shakes defensively but, according to BPro's defensive metrics, he's no less of a butcher out there than Floyd is.

 

Or, if you want to strengthen your bench a little bit (which is a defensible aspect of the Mientkiewicz deal), why not pick up Travis Lee on the cheap, instead of giving up a prospect? Both hit lefty, both play spectacular defense at 1B, but Lee probably hits the books with a nicer figure than the $3.75 million and (more importantly) allows you to keep Bladergroen for the future.

 

It just seems like there were better alternatives available.

Floyd doesn't want to play first (he had a major injury there in 1995 with Todd Hundley and when he returned, Henry Rodriguez was at 1st and Cliff was moved to the outfield) And they'd probably platoon Victor Diaz and Eric Valent if this happened.

 

Ian Bladergroen is an unproven single-A player and in the short term, it's a steal for the Mets. I don't know if Blade will pan out.

[mike546 0]

Normally I'd mock this, but the Yankees' greatest need was outfield defense. Glanville may hit for shit, but he is truly an excellent defensive player. If used correctly, as a defensive sub or pinch runner, he can benefit the Yankees.

Isn't that exactly the same for Bubba Crosby? Shitty hitter, fast runner, good fielder?

[HarleyQuinn 0]

I'm not a big fan of the Mientkiewicz deal. I know he's a smooth operator at first base, but he "hit" at a clip of .238/.326/.350, which was nearly a one hundred point drop in slugging between two hitters parks in the AL.

 

Why not slot Eric Valent in LF and move Cliff Floyd to first? Floyd played 1B when he came into the league, so he can play the position, and there's less physical strain at first than in left, which increases the chances that Cliff might actually play more than 120 games this season. Plus, Valent's 27 years old and he's coming off of a very nice year of .267/.337/.481 with 13 homers in 270 ABs. Sure, he's no great shakes defensively but, according to BPro's defensive metrics, he's no less of a butcher out there than Floyd is.

 

Or, if you want to strengthen your bench a little bit (which is a defensible aspect of the Mientkiewicz deal), why not pick up Travis Lee on the cheap, instead of giving up a prospect? Both hit lefty, both play spectacular defense at 1B, but Lee probably hits the books with a nicer figure than the $3.75 million and (more importantly) allows you to keep Bladergroen for the future.

 

It just seems like there were better alternatives available.

Douggie did had OBP's of .387, .365, and .393 from 2001-2003. He is a solid hitter who can get on base if given the playing time.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

SP John Van Benschoten will likely undergo season-ending surgery after the Pittsburgh Pirates found a torn labrum and a cyst in his throwing shoulder.

 

Texas Rangers signed MR Wilfredo Rodriguez to an MLC and invited to ST.

 

Minnesota Twins signed MR Trey Hodges and INF Andy Fox to MLCs and invited to ST.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers signed SP Scott Erickson to an MLC and invited to ST.

 

Minnesota Twins signed MR C.J. Nitkowski to an MLC and invited to ST.

[The Czech Republic 0]

I don't even mean serious injuries, but those nagging ones that keep you out of the lineup for a few games at time, or might land you on the DL at least a couple times.

Ahchoo!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

SP John Van Benschoten will likely undergo season-ending surgery after the Pittsburgh Pirates found a torn labrum and a cyst in his throwing shoulder.

 

Can't say I'm surprised. His performance suffered last season.

[Guest Failed Mascot]

It would be pretty funny now if the Red Sox signed Travis Lee to the minimum to be that defensive first baseman off the bench.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

MORE NEWS

Pittsburgh Pirates signed MR Rick White to an MLC and invited to ST.

 

Tampa Bay Devil Rays agreed to 1 year deals with SP Scott Kazmir, SP Doug Waechter, and P Chris Seddon.

 

Seattle Mariners signed 2B Yuniesky Betancourt to a 4 year, $2.826 Million contract.

 

Cleveland Indians signed OF Darnell McDonald to an MLC and invited to ST.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Interesting article from Le Batard critiquing the Marlins signing of Delgado from a financial perspective.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Boo @ having to sign up to view the article.

[The Man in Blak 0]

...that's weird. Got the article from BTF and just waltzed in and read it.

 

Must be another tactic in that riveting Cubs/Marlins rivalry.

 

 

EDIT: Here's the c/p of the article:

 

Let's get the hyperventilating out of the way first.

 

The signing of Carlos Delgado makes this the most breathtaking day since the Marlins were celebrating their World Series title in front of a crushed New York.

 

Best team in the National League East now?

 

''Yes,'' a giddy Jeff Conine says.

 

Conine loses the job he loves at first base to Delgado.

 

''No problem,'' he says. ``I'd play catcher if it meant getting this guy.''

 

Delgado represents a commitment to spending this team hasn't shown since Wayne Huizenga owned it. Delgado is one of the 10 best offensive players on this planet. He is Jim Thome at half the price, and a better offensive player than $119 million Met Carlos Beltran. Best hitters in Marlins history? Gary Sheffield and Delgado. That's the beginning and the end of that list. About the only time we've seen a comparable bat in South Florida's left-handed batter's box is when Barry Bonds and Jim Thome visit.

 

Delgado makes the Marlins very, very good.

 

Best-in-the-league good.

 

Possible championship good.

 

But. . . .

 

(You knew there was going to be a ''but,'' right?)

 

FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY

 

Where did all this money come from?

 

And do all the departed champion Marlins -- Pudge Rodriguez, Derrek Lee, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny -- have a right to feel betrayed and hurt by the sudden appearance of it?

 

Because they actually helped win and hold up the trophy here.

 

And Delgado has never been in a playoff game.

 

And he gets the $52 million jackpot?

 

These are not criticisms, just questions. Repeat, in case you just read over it: not criticisms, just questions. Save all your flammable e-mail about the evil journalist raining all over the championship parade on what should and is a day of sports celebration.

 

Delgado is an exceptional, exciting signing that makes Florida immediately better than any team in the National League except the Cardinals. But the Marlins did something they never do here, getting into a bidding war that inflated an original and fair offer of $30 million to $52 million, pushing aside even a Mets team that has been spending sloppily all winter.

 

And there are other good ways that money could have been spent if anyone knew it existed before Delgado discovered it here as if in a buried treasure chest.

 

Not better ways to spend it, necessarily.

 

Just other good ways.

 

ALTERNATIVES

 

The Marlins, for example, could have kept Pudge and Lee for less than the $69 million they just gave their replacements (Delgado and Paul Lo Duca). In other words, they could have kept a defending champ almost completely intact. I wouldn't have given a 30-plus catcher the $40 million Pudge wanted, not even after seeing the monster season he just had in Detroit, but it is fair to ask today if Delgado-Lo Duca makes you better today than the champion duo of Lee-Pudge. I think it does, but there's room for debate there.

 

That $69 million could also have been used to lock up Penny, Pavano, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and A.J. Burnett for the next three or even four years if it had been offered, with vision, at the start of last season.

 

That's risky, obviously.

 

Pavano hadn't really done anything yet. The Marlins rightly fear injuries eating up salary, and Beckett, Burnett and Pavano all have a history of them while Penny is always in the kind of shape that lures them. But if you had your starting staff locked up, you don't have to fear 2006 the way you do now, when Burnett and Al Leiter will be gone, and the only remaining starter from any of the Marlins championships will be Beckett (Willis was a reliever in the 2003 postseason).

 

MONEY BETTER SPENT?

 

In other words, Florida could have locked up a champion pitching staff that beat Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa/Kerry Wood/Mark Prior and the Yankees -- plus Burnett. But it opted instead to give that money to Delgado even though the mathematics show that, whether it is A-Rod in Texas or Delgado in Toronto, teams never do any winning when too high a payroll percentage is in the bank account of a single player.

 

We can go back and forth on whether pitching or hitting wins. Yankees-Red Sox were one-two in AL runs scored last season. Cards-Astros were one-five in NL.

 

Lack of hitting crippled the Marlins last September, so you need a Delgado. But the Marlins did win their championship on pitching while Brian Giles, an offensive player comparable to Delgado, has never done any winning and the Phillies have done nothing but underachieve since getting Thome.

 

All in all, it is a fascinating baseball discussion.

 

That's one of the things Delgado brings along with that bat.

 

Buzz and talk and hope.

 

But it bears noting today that there are other ways to have spent that much money -- money nobody knew the Marlins had.

 

For example, wasn't $52 million about what the Marlins needed to ensure a new stadium?

 

And a future here?

[2GOLD 0]

The Cubs and Marlins are rivals?

When did this happen?

 

Dammit, it wasn't in my Chicago Cubs newsletter!

[Lightning Flik 0]

Its a one sided rivalry 2G. They hate your team all the time, while you beg indifference till they crush your team.

 

Or something like that.

[Mik 0]

You couldn't be more wrong, Flik. And there is no REAL Cubs/Marlins rivalry, just one here on the board between Cubs fans and myself.

 

If you want to get technical, some Cubs players got upset last year after Miguel Cabrera mocked the Bartman incident during a routine fly ball that went into the stands and some Cubs players got mad at it, although most dismissed it as a silly joke.

 

But people may think there is a rivalry based on the way I have argued with Czech Republic and Bruiser during past seasons (and this season as well - I'm betting) when it comes to Cubs vs. Marlins.

 

As for LeBetard's article. I agree with him on the stadium. But I disagree about the players. I would rather have Delgado and Leiter than Pavano and Pudge - maybe that's just me. I'm more excited about this year's Marlins team than I have been about a team since 1997.

 

My theory on the deal in relation to the stadium is this, Loria thinks adding Delgado will boost ticket sales. He's correct so far, yesterday they sold $150,000 worth of season tickets and they expect it to increase steadily over the next few months. They are expecting the highest number of season tickets sold yet. Secondly, he thinks that by bringing another winner to Florida, they will get the support they need from the Florida legislature and get the stadium. If the stadium is approved, money isn't that big of an issue. Half the key to survival in south Florida is to get out from under their crippling lease and actually get to keep their profits.

 

I think this was a wise move from a fiscal standpoint as well, but I'm no economist.

[Jericholic82 0]

The marlins do need a new field, but is it worth it? They never seem to have a lot of people at the games unless it was the world series.

 

Then again I don't live in FLA so I have no idea. and I am a hardcore Yanks fan so the fish are on my list of hated teams in baseball to go along with the red sox, mariners, Indians, Angels, Dodgers, so you can just disregard my statements and take them as purely entertainment

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Let's take a short review of the Marlins' offseason...

 

1. Re-sign Paul Lo Duca, a 32 year old catcher, to a 3 year, $18 Million contract. Meanwhile, block Josh Willingham, who posted a 281/449/565 line in AA, and whom Baseball Prospectus projects to be the best catcher in the National League RIGHT NOW.

 

2. Sign Carlos Delgado to a four year, $52 Million contract. Block Jason Stokes, who slugged .513 in AA at the age of 22.

 

3. Sign Al Leiter to a one year, $8 Million contract despite his declining K rate and rising BB rate.

 

Next season, A.J. Burnett and Juan Pierre will likely leave the team via free agency. When they lose them, remember that the Marlins could have kept these good, young players, but instead blew money on players they really didn't need.

[Vern Gagne 0]

What's your teams opening day lineup, and pitching rotation look like? About 3 weeks away from P/C reporting.

 

Twins

 

C-Joe Mauer

1B-Justin Morneau

2B-Luis Rivas/Micheal Cuddyer

SS-Jason Bartlett/Nick Punto

3B-Micheal Cuddyer/Eric Munson

LF-Lew Ford/Shannon Stewart

CF-Tori Hunter

RF-Jacque Jones

DH-Lew Ford/Shannon Stewart

 

SP-J.Santana

SP-B.Radke

SP-C.Silva

SP-K.Lohse

SP-J.Mays/J.D. Durbin

 

RP-J.Nathan

RP-J.Romero

RP-J.Rincon

RP-G.Balfour

RP-J.Craine

RP-C.Nitkowski/J.Durbin

Edited January 28, 2005 by Vern Gagne