EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 The San Diego Padres finished 87-75, missing the NL West crown by six games. While they played well, they seemed to struggle at times with Petco Park. What people miss sometimes is that while the Padres' hitting stats were down, this does not necessarily equate bad hitting. Value does not come from compiling impressive hitting stats, but from creating enough runs to win a game, relative to the average in that park. The Padres scored 768 runs, eighth in the National League. That seems run of the mill. But on the road, they scored 439 runs, second in the League, and only two runs behind the St. Louis Cardinals. This was a very good offensive team, masked in an extreme pitchers' park. Six of the Padres' starters had OPSs 10% or better above the league average. Take Khalil Greene for example. His .279/.349/.446 line was fairly good, for a shortstop. On the road, Greene's line ballooned to .301/.353/.543. Greene's slugging percentage on the road was tops for NL Shortstops. Greene appears to be a truly good player who could be severely underrated by his home park. The danger for the Padres is complacency. Teams who play in pitchers' parks tend to stick with bad pitchers longer because the park masks their deficiencies. The Padres only enjoyed above average performance from Jake Peavy and David Wells last year, and Wells is gone. Jake Peavy's injury last season cost the Padres the division crown, without a doubt. Peavy finished with a 15-6 record and a 2.27 ERA in 20 starts. He missed about 6 weeks. To cover, the Padres used Dennis Tankersley (6 starts), Sterling Hitchcock (4 starts) and Justin Germano (5 starts). Those three pitchers finished 1-10 on the season. Germano was rushed, and should improve. But in any case, the Padres' performance without Peavy was putrid. Cases like the above is what makes projecting winners so difficult. Often, it is not the abilities of the players, but the ability to stay healthy, and if that fails, to find reasonably good fill-ins to cover in case of injuries. The Braves had Nick Green and won the NL East. The Phillies found Paul Abbott and lost. The Dodgers turned to Wilson Alvarez in their rotation and won the division, while the Padres turned to Sterling Hitchcock and lost. This looks like a two team race between the Padres and Dodgers. I am loathe to pick a winner right now. It's just very, very close. This should be a fun one to watch in any case. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vern Gagne 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 Did San Diego make any changes to Petco Park in the off-season, like bringing the fences in? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 Did San Diego make any changes to Petco Park in the off-season, like bringing the fences in? They discussed it, but I haven't heard anything. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Czech Republic 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 I'd assume if they did we would have to know by now. You'd think all the dimensions would be marked in stone for the summer this close to Opening Day, and it would be made known to the public that the change was made. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spaceman Spiff 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 Hey, I'll be seeing this team in San Diego this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hektik 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 They are not going to move the fences in. Management has said that it would not be a good move to change the ballpark just for this team. The problem has been that the Padres power hitters (Giles, Nevin, and Klesko), all have power to right center. Unfortunately for them that is the deepest part of the ballpark. The ideal power hitter for Petco is a batter with power to left field aiming for the Western Metal Building. This is just a case of management building a team without taking the new ballpark into consideration. Looking beyond the ballpark, the Padres have many positives but also have the same question marks as they did at the end of last year. Centerfield - Dave Roberts is not an improvement over Jay Payton. The only real positive I can think of is that he will take over as leadoff hitter allowing Sean Burroughs to drop down in the order. Look at these numbers Roberts career: OBP 335 SLG .344 AVG .259 Payton career: OBP 335 SLG .443 AVG .285 Now remember that the Padres traded Jay Payton, Ramon Vasquez, a minor leaguer, and 2.65 million to Boston just because Roberts is fast. The Padres had a hole in Centerfield last year when the D Backs wouldn’t trade Steve Finley to them and they will have one again this year when Roberts goes down with a hamstring injury. 5th Starter - Last year the Padres traded their 5th starter Isamael Valdez to the Marlins at the trading deadline (a move I was happy about). The problem was they didn’t get a win from their 5th starter the rest of the year. They tried Sterling Hitchcock, Dennis Tankersly, and Justin Germano but they all failed. This year they were going to use Darell May but he has just been horrible this spring training. He may have just pitched himself out of a starting spot yesterday. The alternative is giving Justin Germano another shot or rushing Tim Stauffer up. Despite those problems, the Padres have a lot of positives going for them. Mark Lorretta is still one of the best hitters in the league and Khalil Greene is still an exciting shortstop and Baseball America’s 2004 Rookie of the Year. I expect Brian Giles to have a big bounce back year (it is his contract year), as well as Ryan Klesko. Last year Klesko only hit 9 homeruns. This was due to his shoulder surgery a year before. He could not lift weights during the off season and lost his power. He started regaining it in the 2nd half and has since gone back to his regular off season routine. The Padres improved their bench by making Xavier Nady the 4th outfielder and adding Eric Young. Their bullpen is one of the best in league and they improved it by adding Chris Hammond to go along with Scott Linebrink, Akinori Otsuka, and Trevor Hoffman. Despite the 5th spot they have a solid 1 through 4 starting rotation headed up by Jake Peavy. He is a future Cy Young winner and was already the NL ERA Champion last year. I am cautiously excited about this team. They made great strides last year after having 5 straight losing seasons. They came so close last year that I will be disappointed if they don’t win the West this year. Either way I look forward to what should be a fun season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 Centerfield - Dave Roberts is not an improvement over Jay Payton. The only real positive I can think of is that he will take over as leadoff hitter allowing Sean Burroughs to drop down in the order. I disagree. Acquiring Dave Roberts is a very, very good move for this team, for two reasons. One, he can cover the expansive center field in Petco. Jay Payton was a liability, and his fielding statistics only look good because he had to cover for Ryan Klesko in left field. When you play in a park with a massive outfield, you need outfield defense, and Klesko, Giles and Payton just is not going to cover it. Dave Roberts will cut a few points off the team ERA. Second, Roberts' abilities unlike most hitters should not be affected by the ballpark. Jay Payton hit .242/.305/.304 last season at home. No player in the majors with more than 200 home at bats hit worse. In Petco, Payton smashes the ball and it just lands in a glove somewhere. Roberts' skills are perfect for a ballpark like that. 5th Starter - Last year the Padres traded their 5th starter Isamael Valdez to the Marlins at the trading deadline (a move I was happy about). The problem was they didn’t get a win from their 5th starter the rest of the year. They tried Sterling Hitchcock, Dennis Tankersly, and Justin Germano but they all failed. This year they were going to use Darell May but he has just been horrible this spring training. He may have just pitched himself out of a starting spot yesterday. The alternative is giving Justin Germano another shot or rushing Tim Stauffer up. They should at least give May a chance to prove his worth in the Majors. Petco is a lot different than Arizona. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mik 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 Centerfield - Dave Roberts is not an improvement over Jay Payton. The only real positive I can think of is that he will take over as leadoff hitter allowing Sean Burroughs to drop down in the order. I disagree. Acquiring Dave Roberts is a very, very good move for this team, for two reasons. One, he can cover the expansive center field in Petco. Jay Payton was a liability, and his fielding statistics only look good because he had to cover for Ryan Klesko in left field. When you play in a park with a massive outfield, you need outfield defense, and Klesko, Giles and Payton just is not going to cover it. Dave Roberts will cut a few points off the team ERA. Second, Roberts' abilities unlike most hitters should not be affected by the ballpark. Jay Payton hit .242/.305/.304 last season at home. No player in the majors with more than 200 home at bats hit worse. In Petco, Payton smashes the ball and it just lands in a glove somewhere. Roberts' skills are perfect for a ballpark like that. I agreed with this when I read the same exact thing in 2005 Baseball Prospectus on Saturday. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 27, 2005 Perhaps. But Baseball Prospectus never mentioned Payton's home/road splits, did they? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the max 0 Report post Posted March 28, 2005 http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=119738 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sfaJack 0 Report post Posted March 28, 2005 http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=119738 There'll be no stopping the Padres now!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
