This Week In Baseball

[Vern Gagne 0]

Yep. Pitching in New York is a whole different animal.

It has nothing to do with New York. Look at these two pitching lines....

 

2003: 201 IP, 204 Hits, 19 HRs, 49 BBs, 133 Ks, 4.30 ERA

2004: 222 IP, 212 Hits, 16 HRs, 49 BBs, 139 Ks, 3.00 ERA

 

The difference is almost entirely in hits allowed, which as we all know are prone to luck, and flucuate from year to year. So we have a guy who....

 

a. Pitched better than normal last year

b. Moved from Dolphins Stadium to Yankee Stadium

c. Moved from the National League to the American League

d. Went from a very good defense to an abysmal defense

 

B & C add 0.4 to his ERA right off the bat. The rest is icing on the cake. Like Jaret Wright, this was entirely to be expected.

 

I don't agree, that hits are almost all prone to luck. Good pitchers know how to prevent hitters from getting alot of hits.

It is a hard concept to swallow, I know. But essentially, a pitcher's matchup can end in four outcomes....

 

a. strikeout

b. walk (or hit-by-pitch)

c. home run

d. other ball in play

 

What happens when (D) is brought into the equation is roughly the result of luck. Good pitchers romove luck from the equation by collecting lots of strikeouts (A), and reducing the damage done by balls in play by limiting walks (B).

 

Pitchers that do poorly in categories A, B and C are not good pitchers. There is no such thing as a pitcher that can prevent hits year after year without doing well in those three peripheral categories. Look at Damian Moss in 2002. 179 IP, 140 hits allowed, 3.42 ERA. So what the heck happened? His peripherals caught up with him.

 

Let me modify the theory a little. Good pitchers allow less hits because their peripherals indicate their dominance. A pitcher who collects alot of strikeouts induce weak contact when the hitter DOES get ahold of the ball, leading to more out. I do not believe a pitcher can "pitch to contact," because if the pitcher is inducing contact, the batter knows where to hit the ball, and if he does he is going to be able to put it somewhere the pitcher does not want him to. Walks indicate control and a lack of collateral damage, and a home run rate accounts for guys who have otherwise good strikeout and walk totals, but are hittable (Bruce Chen, John Stephens, etc.).

 

And if that does not convince you, note I said prone to luck, and not entirely due to luck. Look at Ichiro Suzuki. His batting averages have been .350, .321, .312, and .372. Ichiro is a consistantly good hitter, and his batting average has nearly a 25 point standard deviation from year to year. All batters and pitchers are prone to these ebbs and flows. That is why it is important to use career statistics to gauge players, and not trust the results of a single year. Even if Pavano did have the ability to prevent hits, he did not show it in 2003.

Outstanding Al. I under your point, and I was more or less refering to the elite pichers in the game. You're correct about the more average ones.

 

Another thing. I don't know the numbers, but it would seem like control pitchers like a Brad Radke might be more prone to allowing hits, since they're more likely to throw the ball near the plate.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Another thing. I don't know the numbers, but it would seem like control pitchers like a Brad Radke might be more prone to allowing hits, since they're more likely to throw the ball near the plate.

 

Not knowing myself, I did a quick 'n' dirty study. Baseball Prospectus provides Batting Average for Balls in play, which removes strikeouts from the equation. I drew up a list of the top five leaders in K/9 and BB/9 for each league, from last season. The power pitchers did allow less hits from batted balls, just a .284 mark compared to the .294 mark for control pitchers. Looks significant, but that works out to just one hit in a hundred, or about nine or ten hits over the course of a full season. For control pitchers, this is more than offset by the lack of baserunners when the hitters do collect those hits.

 

Some interesting stuff while looking over this. The MLB leader in K/9, closer Brad Lidge, allowed a .301 batting average from balls in play. Paul Abbott allowed just a .267 mark with the Phillies, and .259 with the Devil Rays.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Really proves you initial point Al. Kind of amazing the averages has high as they are for such good pitchers.

 

That's very interesting. Guess Abbott walked alot of batters.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Really proves you initial point Al. Kind of amazing the averages has high as they are for such good pitchers.

 

They seem high, but remember we are removing 100-200 outs for each pitcher because of the strikeouts. A strikeout is an automatic out, so pitchers like Randy Johnson have less of those to worry about than a Brad Radke.

 

That's very interesting. Guess Abbott walked alot of batters.

 

58 walks in 96 IP. Plus like I said above, only 46 Ks means he gets to face that .259 failure rate a lot more often than your average pitcher.

[Brett Favre 0]

Pavano is a bad pitcher? I get you guys on Wright and Brown, but Pavano? The Yankee hate is amusing.

[Mik 0]

Hell, I'm a Marlin fan, and even I don't have that much faith in Pavano.

 

He's had one good season in his entire career.

[Brett Favre 0]

He hasn't been terrible this year. Or bad. Pretty solid other than one start.

 

And being a Marlin fan has everything to do with it. You won't see me defend Jeff Weaver.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

As an Orioles fan I was kinda disapointed they didnt get Pavano..but I will say that I would rather have Pavano than Ponson.

 

Right now the Os rotation gets strong starts regularly from 3 of the 5 pitchers, Ponson and Cabrera being the two weak links. Ive been very impressed by Bedards improvement over last year, Chen has been a surprise, and Lopez is proving he should have been the #1 starter last year instead of starting off in the bullpen.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

It's not that Pavano's bad. He was just overrated going into this season because of one great season. Aside from 2004, he was average at best and I think that's what the Yankees are going to get. Unfortunately, what they paid for was the 2004 Pavano. That's not going to happen again and thus, they overpaid.

[Brett Favre 0]

Sure he might have been overpaid, but so far the risk hasn't looked like a bad one. Clement can't stay healthy for a full season, and it's a genius signing. Pavano had a breakout year last year, improving on his previous year, but he's not going to continue to improve? He's in his prime right now. I don't see why he wouldn't improve or stay at that level, instead of going back to being that average pitcher. It's not like he's 33, and it definitely was a fluke season.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Sure he might have been overpaid, but so far the risk hasn't looked like a bad one. Clement can't stay healthy for a full season, and it's a genius signing. Pavano had a breakout year last year, improving on his previous year, but he's not going to continue to improve? He's in his prime right now. I don't see why he wouldn't improve or stay at that level, instead of going back to being that average pitcher. It's not like he's 33, and it definitely was a fluke season.

The problem is that his peripherals did NOT improve. His strikeout rate was slightly lower in '04 than in '03. The only thing that made Pavano a better pitcher was the hit rate, which is prone to flucuation.

 

I'm not saying Pavano is a bad pitcher. He's slightly above average. Which makes him worth less than $10 Million a year. Clement was a better signing because he was cheaper, and because his K rate bodes better for future success.

[mike546 0]

If RJ isn't an ace today, the media, and the fans of the Yankees are going to go haywire. If he pitches like he has been, those messsage boards servers will go down.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

The Yanks are banking way too much on RJ pitching like that today. Watching their broadcast yesterday, they were talking like everything is going to swing the other way starting today because Johnson's starting. For novelty's sake, here's hoping to a Rangers' win!

 

And word of mouth is starting whenever the situation applies, LaTroy is back in the set-up role and Michael Wuertz will be the new closer.

[mike546 0]

THANK YOU JOE!

 

Phillips gets a start over Tino.

 

EDIT: SEE! Andy Phillips, two run double. What does Giambi do? He Ks.

 

START PHILLIPS.

[fairtoflair7 0]

This Mets lineup is unstoppable. The pitcher gets no breaks in it. Now only if the pitching Guru could fix his project in Zambrano...

[2GOLD 0]

I'm really starting to think it's a situation of finding the right catcher and getting his control under command for Cabera. I see lots of good things from watching him but he gets frustrated and just starts fling. He needs someone to help him grow up and that someone is not Sidney Ponson.

 

Oh and the Prince of Pancakes has a shutout through six innings today against the Blue Jays. I swear, that guy is the right handed David Wells. Some days he is good but when he is bad, he makes you grind your teeth till it hurts.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Two straight games the Twins and Tigers haven been postponed due to snow.

[mike546 0]

How hard was it snowing? I've never actually seen a game delayed by snow before.

 

EDIT: Phillips now goes deep with a 3 Run Homer. Joe needs to start this guy. I know its just one game, buts its damn near close to totaling the entire production of Giambi this year.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

It's real bad here (I live 90 minutes from Detroit). It looks like it's the middle of January right now.

[Matt Young 0]

The Braves have officially completed the 3 game sweep of Philly... And somewhere, Al's tears smear the stats on his scorecard.

 

I hate the Braves and want the Phillies to win the division, so this is disappointing.

[strummer 0]

Braves with another shutout as they sweep the Phils. They are playing scary good right now

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Wood only went five, gave up two, struck out eight and walked three (all leadoff walks). He only threw 76 pitches so I wonder what's going on. Or maybe I don't want to know.

[Matt Young 0]

Dodgers trail the Rockies 2-1 in the 4th inning in a game being broadcast on FSN West 2. It looks like this game will end right before the Bulls' playoff game starts, so that works out wonderfully. However, I will be pissed if LA loses to the fucking Rockies. I mean, come on. This is a perfect opportunity to end that losing skid.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

The Dodgers should be more ashamed that they've had two extra basehits in this series so far.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

God dammit. Classic Dusty Baker here. Our new closer by default is Chad Fox. Thanks for favoring the vets again, you dumb bastard.

[2GOLD 0]

It worked.

And Wood was pulled because he is still having tightness in his arm and they still don't want to push him too hard.

 

So for once, Baker actually did the right things with the pitching.

Brenly himself said the Cubs will be doing closer by committee for awhile until they are able to lock onto one who performs on a constant basis like he can actually handle it. And for once, that ACTUALLY makes sense.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Ejections: Tampa Bay Devil Rays pitcher Lance Carter ejected by 2B umpire Rick Reed. (7th); Tampa Bay Devil Rays pitcher Dewon Brazelton ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th); Tampa Bay Devil Rays Manager Lou Piniella ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th); Boston Red Sox right fielder Trot Nixon ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th); Boston Red Sox Manager Terry Francona ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th); Boston Red Sox pitcher Bronson Arroyo ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th).

[2GOLD 0]

Ejections: Tampa Bay Devil Rays pitcher Lance Carter ejected by 2B umpire Rick Reed. (7th); Tampa Bay Devil Rays pitcher Dewon Brazelton ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th); Tampa Bay Devil Rays Manager Lou Piniella ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th); Boston Red Sox right fielder Trot Nixon ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th); Boston Red Sox Manager Terry Francona ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th); Boston Red Sox pitcher Bronson Arroyo ejected by HP umpire Ted Barrett. (7th).

 

Yankees vs Red Sox?

HA!

 

The new rivalry is D-Rays vs Red Sox!

[mike546 0]

Actually, haven't the Rays and Sox always had bad blood? I remember some brawls with Pedro and somebody from a couple years ago.

[Guest Mosaicv2]

Actually, haven't the Rays and Sox always had bad blood? I remember some brawls with Pedro and somebody from a couple years ago.

Gerald Willams: former Yankee.