This Week In Baseball

[Guest]

I'm one of the people who thinks Hawkins needs to be moved to the set-up role where he excells. But off the top of my head, the Cubs don't have anyone that could fill the closer role. I think there are maybe five truly dominant closers that are almost always lights out, so I don't expect them to land such a closer. People say they should've gone after Benitez and Percival, but judging by their performances so far, I'd say it was a better bet that they didn't.

I'm extremely surprised that they haven't tried to trade for Ugueth Urbina. He seems to be a guy that's out there.

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

I think the lack of plate discipline is hurting the Cubs more than Hawkins at the closer.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Al would make a better Cubs fan than any of us on the board since he's always able to put a positive spin on bad situations. It's just becoming clear that Dusty at the helm isn't going to get the job done.

 

It's a skill you have to have to survive as a baseball fan, honestly.

Cubs fans have been doing it for nearly a century.

[sfaJack 0]

I think the lack of plate discipline is hurting the Cubs more than Hawkins at the closer.

That's not it! Don't you know that walks just clog up the basepaths?

 

And I know it's still way, way early, but the rest of the Central teams aren't doing themselves any favors by spotting the Cards a 3 1/2 game lead already.

[the max 0]

If Scott Williamson ever comes back from his arm surgery (he's on the 60 day DL) the Cubs will probably use him. He has some filthy stuff when he's on.

[mike546 0]

The only thing Yank cans can celebrate is the Sox losing again to the Rays, and their god oh mighty ace not looking good, again.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

If both the Sox and Yankees miss the division title, I'll go to church* again.

 

*Church may include watching five minutes of the Hour of Power.

[iggymcfly 0]

Well, since that would probably mean the Orioles win the AL East, I would be tremendously excited. I probably wouldn't go to church, but I would run screaming through the streets, drunk and naked.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Fun with comparisons, Yankee style...

 

Jon Lieber: 4-0. 2.73 ERA, 29.2 IP, 2 BB, 9 Ks

Jaret Wright: 2-2, 9.15 ERA, 19.2 IP, 9 BB, 13 Ks

 

Jeff Weaver: 2-1, 6.00 ERA, 24 IP, 3 BB, 10 Ks

Yhancy Brazoban: 1-0, 3.68 ERA, 7.1 IP, 4 BB, 8 Ks, 4 saves

Kevin Brown: 0-2, 8.25 ERA, 12 IP, 3 BB, 7 Ks

 

Brad Halsey: 2-0, 2.74 ERA, 23 IP, 2 BB, 15 Ks

Randy Johnson: 1-1, 5.13 ERA, 26.1 IP, 5 BBs, 27 Ks

[bob_barron 0]

I called the Jaret Wright signing blowing up in their face. Seriously- why give the guy 7.5 million for having one pretty good year?

 

The Braves will go on one of their runs if they just can keep pounding the ball like they have today. This rotation is just sick

[Vern Gagne 0]

Plenty of people called that one Bob. It's called the Mazzone Factor.

[razazteca 0]

If both the Sox and Yankees miss the division title, I'll go to church* again.

 

*Church may include watching five minutes of the Hour of Power.

Baseball cannot exist without having the Yankees in the playoffs.

 

*boycott KFC for Church's Chicken?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Plenty of people called that one Bob. It's called the Mazzone Factor.

It wasn't just Mazzone. They fell into the same trap with Esteban Loaiza last year.

[bob_barron 0]

Plenty of people called that one Bob. It's called the Mazzone Factor.

I'm not taking credit for calling it.

 

But Wright started to fall off as the season wore on (having a particularly disgusting outing in San Diego) and was terrible in the playoffs, I never thought a team would be insane enough to give him 21 mil.

[Vern Gagne 0]

I meant the success Wright had under Mazzone last year.

[Mik 0]

The Yankees didn't make that mistake just once this offseason, they made it twice with Carl Pavano.

 

Thanks for the career year, Carl. Have fun in NY.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Yep. Pitching in New York is a whole different animal.

[Guest]

The Yankees had to have known what they were getting in to with Pavano. In Montreal he was absolutely terrible, and last year, he didn't exactly show me too much.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Al's gonna need to keep those positive spins going with the way the Phillies have been playing lately.

[Vern Gagne 0]

It's Abreu's fault

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Yep. Pitching in New York is a whole different animal.

It has nothing to do with New York. Look at these two pitching lines....

 

2003: 201 IP, 204 Hits, 19 HRs, 49 BBs, 133 Ks, 4.30 ERA

2004: 222 IP, 212 Hits, 16 HRs, 49 BBs, 139 Ks, 3.00 ERA

 

The difference is almost entirely in hits allowed, which as we all know are prone to luck, and flucuate from year to year. So we have a guy who....

 

a. Pitched better than normal last year

b. Moved from Dolphins Stadium to Yankee Stadium

c. Moved from the National League to the American League

d. Went from a very good defense to an abysmal defense

 

B & C add 0.4 to his ERA right off the bat. The rest is icing on the cake. Like Jaret Wright, this was entirely to be expected.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Al's gonna need to keep those positive spins going with the way the Phillies have been playing lately.

Why? Are they playing tonight?

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Al's gonna need to keep those positive spins going with the way the Phillies have been playing lately.

Why? Are they playing tonight?

I need to have that mindset more often.

 

And I must've been high when I decided not to bench Odalis Perez tonight. Seven earned runs in five innings of work. God damn Coors.

[Bored 0]

Another thing to take into account with the Yankees early pitching problems is they also have atrocious defense. Right now they rank dead last in all of baseball in Defensive Efficiency.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Yep. Pitching in New York is a whole different animal.

It has nothing to do with New York. Look at these two pitching lines....

 

2003: 201 IP, 204 Hits, 19 HRs, 49 BBs, 133 Ks, 4.30 ERA

2004: 222 IP, 212 Hits, 16 HRs, 49 BBs, 139 Ks, 3.00 ERA

 

The difference is almost entirely in hits allowed, which as we all know are prone to luck, and flucuate from year to year. So we have a guy who....

 

a. Pitched better than normal last year

b. Moved from Dolphins Stadium to Yankee Stadium

c. Moved from the National League to the American League

d. Went from a very good defense to an abysmal defense

 

B & C add 0.4 to his ERA right off the bat. The rest is icing on the cake. Like Jaret Wright, this was entirely to be expected.

 

I don't agree, that hits are almost all prone to luck. Good pitchers know how to prevent hitters from getting alot of hits.

[ISportsFan 0]

White Sox win again, this time 3-2 in 10 innings at Kansas City to make their record 14-4. Contreras got hurt in the 4th inning, pulling his hamstring. But, the bullpen only allowed one run in 6 2/3 innings to get the W. Tenth inning heroics by Aaron Rowand, Juan Uribe, and AJ Pierzynski despite the 3, 4, 5, and 6 hitters only hitting something around 2 for 37 in the first two games of the series. Finally, the best moment for the Sox in the game came on a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth inning where Damaso Marte covered home to barely get the tag out to save the Sox from a loss.

 

Jason

[mike546 0]

Who says Pavanos done bad? If anything, hes been our best starter. Hes got a 2.86 ERA, and if not for the Yankees suckass D, would have only given up 7 runs in 22 innings.

 

Sure RJ hasn't been himself, but again, a lot of its the D. He pitched well his first tart, sucked in his 2nd. He was OK in Boston, and really had great stuff beside the damn HR. He should have head a 7 innings and 3 ER start, but fucking Torre left him in too long, plus Jeters error. Moose has been decent, and keeps kept us in every game beside the game where, *shock*, A-Rod made a 3 run error, and Sheff makes an error on the NEXT play against Boston.

 

Brown and Wright have sucked, no doubt. I honestly think Cashman was the ONLY person in the world who wanted Wright over Lieber. I've been moarning his loss since the day we declined his option.

 

Dumbass Cashman.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Yep. Pitching in New York is a whole different animal.

It has nothing to do with New York. Look at these two pitching lines....

 

2003: 201 IP, 204 Hits, 19 HRs, 49 BBs, 133 Ks, 4.30 ERA

2004: 222 IP, 212 Hits, 16 HRs, 49 BBs, 139 Ks, 3.00 ERA

 

The difference is almost entirely in hits allowed, which as we all know are prone to luck, and flucuate from year to year. So we have a guy who....

 

a. Pitched better than normal last year

b. Moved from Dolphins Stadium to Yankee Stadium

c. Moved from the National League to the American League

d. Went from a very good defense to an abysmal defense

 

B & C add 0.4 to his ERA right off the bat. The rest is icing on the cake. Like Jaret Wright, this was entirely to be expected.

 

I don't agree, that hits are almost all prone to luck. Good pitchers know how to prevent hitters from getting alot of hits.

It is a hard concept to swallow, I know. But essentially, a pitcher's matchup can end in four outcomes....

 

a. strikeout

b. walk (or hit-by-pitch)

c. home run

d. other ball in play

 

What happens when (D) is brought into the equation is roughly the result of luck. Good pitchers romove luck from the equation by collecting lots of strikeouts (A), and reducing the damage done by balls in play by limiting walks (B).

 

Pitchers that do poorly in categories A, B and C are not good pitchers. There is no such thing as a pitcher that can prevent hits year after year without doing well in those three peripheral categories. Look at Damian Moss in 2002. 179 IP, 140 hits allowed, 3.42 ERA. So what the heck happened? His peripherals caught up with him.

 

Let me modify the theory a little. Good pitchers allow less hits because their peripherals indicate their dominance. A pitcher who collects alot of strikeouts induce weak contact when the hitter DOES get ahold of the ball, leading to more out. I do not believe a pitcher can "pitch to contact," because if the pitcher is inducing contact, the batter knows where to hit the ball, and if he does he is going to be able to put it somewhere the pitcher does not want him to. Walks indicate control and a lack of collateral damage, and a home run rate accounts for guys who have otherwise good strikeout and walk totals, but are hittable (Bruce Chen, John Stephens, etc.).

 

And if that does not convince you, note I said prone to luck, and not entirely due to luck. Look at Ichiro Suzuki. His batting averages have been .350, .321, .312, and .372. Ichiro is a consistantly good hitter, and his batting average has nearly a 25 point standard deviation from year to year. All batters and pitchers are prone to these ebbs and flows. That is why it is important to use career statistics to gauge players, and not trust the results of a single year. Even if Pavano did have the ability to prevent hits, he did not show it in 2003.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Brown and Wright have sucked, no doubt. I honestly think Cashman was the ONLY person in the world who wanted Wright over Lieber. I've been moarning his loss since the day we declined his option.

 

Dumbass Cashman.

 

In fairness, $8 Million looked like an obscene amount when they declined the option. No one knew the pitching market was going to explose the way it did.

 

I do think the Yankees missed the boat by not signing Odalis Perez.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

The Royals only lost because they don't know how to run the bases.