Campaign 2008

[At Home 0]

Does anyone really think that McCain has even the slightest chance at winning against either candidate? Between Clinton and Obama, sure, there are discrepancies. But I would be forever ashamed to say that I am democratic if we run a literal sack of shit and don't beat McCain.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

Yes, I think McCain has a pretty good shot at winning the general.

[snuffbox 0]

The longer this goes, the better McCain's chances become. He's already no worse than even-money against Hillary. Could very easily be four more years of the biggest government in history.

 

[SuperJerk 0]

I still think McCain is pretty weak as a national candidate, for reasons I've already stated. He's basically the second coming of Bob Dole.

[The Robfather 0]

THE COMEBACK BITCH!

 

This woman wants to win more than any of them.

 

MSNBC is like a funeral tonight.

 

Fox News is salivating at the idea of a split convention.

[bobobrazil1984 0]

If Obama isn't careful, he's going to get stuck with a "choker" "he's not a closer" label here. This is the 2nd time he could have put Hillary away but failed.

 

The confusion with the whole Canada/NAFTA thing and the weak response to Hillary's late burst of tough "He's not experienced enough" ads really had an effect it seems. Funny how that foreign policy confusion/fuck-up happened just as hillary was pushing the 'he's inexperienced at foreign policy' drumbeat, eh? that's just effective politics.

[2GOLD 0]

Ohio: We just like making things difficult!

 

So I guess Obama will fall in Texas and HERE WE GO AGAIN. He's getting there fast. This will be the second time he has had momentum firmly on his side and Hilary has just stepped in and knocked him right on his ass in big states. He's getting the smaller ones but when the big states pop up, Hilary drops him.

 

She's getting ammo for the Super Delegates to use to justify picking her really fast.

[Guest Beastalentier]

<3

 

<3

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

So now Pennsylvania in six weeks? Shit. Pray for me.

[SuperJerk 0]

The thing about the attacks on Obama's ethnicity/religion is that they're dishonest and so easily refuted there's no way they'd make an impact on the campaign. I honestly can't see how anyone would believe them.

 

 

Okay, maybe not.

[SuperJerk 0]

Ohio: We just like making things difficult!

 

So I guess Obama will fall in Texas and HERE WE GO AGAIN. He's getting there fast. This will be the second time he has had momentum firmly on his side and Hilary has just stepped in and knocked him right on his ass in big states. He's getting the smaller ones but when the big states pop up, Hilary drops him.

 

She's getting ammo for the Super Delegates to use to justify picking her really fast.

[The Robfather 0]

Obama is such an over-the-top windbag. He's trying for a "I have a dream" here...

 

.... Finally, Fox cuts him off.

 

Thank God. He's such a phony.

 

At least with the BITCH, you know what you are getting.

[Guest Beastalentier]

Obama is such an over-the-top windbag. He's trying for a "I have a dream" here...

 

.... Finally, Fox cuts him off.

 

Thank God. He's such a phony.

 

At least with the BITCH, you know what you are getting.

Fox cut him off? Ouch.

 

Careful with your observations, Robfather.

[The Robfather 0]

Fox News justified it by saying they gave his speech the same amount of time as Clinton.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Hillary with the miracle comeback for the ages!

 

 

[PUT THAT DICK IN MY MOUTH! 0]

Welp,

 

Barack Obama's still-likely nomination owes a debt to John Rawls: the inequalities built into the Democratic delegate selection system benefit the little states and history's most aggrieved figure -- the liberal activist. Let's say Hillary Clinton romps to victory in Ohio and Texas and Rhode Island. Tens of thousands of extra voters. At most, a few extra delegates. But a win is a win, right? Twenty-four ... okay, forty-eight hours later, when the afterglow has faded and the Hill raisers are on vacation, Clinton delegate guru Harold Ickes will sit down at his desk, scratch his chest through the open folds of his shirt, and have the same problem he has right now: Barack Obama's earned delegate lead is virtually insurmountable.

 

There are a variety of delegate calculation spreadsheets floating around, and I've plugged numbers in all of them, using the red-rosiest scenarios I could contemplate for Clinton. Under a fairly neutral scenario, she needs about 55 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama, assuming she takes half the remaining superdelegates. (A generous assumption, given that his rate of superdelegate acquisition is about four to one right now.) To get 55 percent of the remaining pledged delegates, she needs to win about 72 percent of the popular vote in most of the rest of the 18 or so states that haven't voted. Clinton has won, in truth, nearly as many actual votes as Obama, and most of the biggest states. If merit governed the delegate selection process, Clinton would have an equal claim to the nomination. But merit, in this process, is a lower order principle.

[Guest Beastalentier]

Fox News justified it by saying they gave his speech the same amount of time as Clinton.

Meh. It was short. A tired retread, yes, but cutting off anyone's speech is kind of rude.

 

EDIT: unless Obama speaks for 45 minutes like he did that other time

[snuffbox 0]

"You know what you're getting with Hillary"

 

That's really dumb.

[Timmy8271 0]

Fucking Hillary. Obama had it in the bag and she appears on SNL and pulls the sympathy card. Man If Mccain wins the election, I expect the draft to come back.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

I think we're to the point where if Hillary wins the nomination, there will be mass riots by Obama "supporters".

 

 

 

 

[snuffbox 0]

Obviously, Marvin. We're a CULT! Of course there will be riots, what else is a cult led by a black Muslim in cahoots with al Qaeda supposed to do?

[NYU 0]

Uh oh, Snuffbox is having an Obameltdown.

[snuffbox 0]

Was that supposed to be posted during the afternoon when I actually was spazzing out?

[NYU 0]

Well no. It applies to your last few posts where you said McCain is going to easily beat Hillary and we'll have the biggest government ever for four more years, followed by your frantic post where you first pointedly mocked the accusation of an Obama cult, then quickly moving onto the claim of Obama being in cahoots with al Qaeda in exasperation.

 

Calm down. Deep breaths. Obama will likely still win the Texas Caucuses. Me, I'm a Hillary man.

[Guest frostdude1]

Hillary is gonna win the whole thing

[At Home 0]

Now this is just funny.

[snuffbox 0]

Go ahead and re-read the post where I talked about McCain's chances vs. Hillary. I'm pretty sure I said hes "no worse than even-money" but I'm getting a bit old/crispy, maybe you're right and it does say something completely different.

 

The post after Marvin's is the same mocking tone I take just about every single time I respond to anything he said.

 

I needed to calm myself down much earlier in the day, though. I'll admit my immaturity over the Brett Favre news.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Im happy for once I actually predicted something that happened..

 

*throws a party*

 

So there are no other primaries for 6 weeks? ouch

[Xavier Cromartie 0]

So there are no other primaries for 6 weeks? ouch

Incorrect. Wyoming is on Saturday, and Mississippi is next Tuesday. Obama will very likely win both of them.

 

Here's a reasonably good guess at how the pledged-delegate count will play out:

Czech & Co.: She needs 62% in every remaining contest to take the pledged-delegate lead. Obama is likely to win Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. Indiana and Puerto Rico could also be his, or at least fairly even. If so, then Hillary would likely need at least 85% of the votes in Pennsylvania, Guam, West Virginia, and Kentucky to have more pledged delegates.

[Guest Beastalentier]

She may not take the pledged delegate lead, but I doubt Obama lands the knockout punch either. She's got momentum now. Plenty of time to raise funds and re-organize. Bitch is the new black!