Campaign 2008

[MFer 0]

Since I don't expect consistency or intellectual honesty from the Clinton campaign at this point, it was morbidly amusing to see how the Clinton campaign tried to spin the results of the primary in, of all places, West Virginia as a crucial win. I hope someone in the media remembers to mention that only 28 delegates are at stake tomorrow, and that West Virginia is worth 5 electoral votes in November. Tomorrow's victory will somehow show that white people won't vote for Obama, even though he won primary victories in Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, and Utah.

I loved how some people pulled out the "No Democrat has won the presidency without winning West Virginia since 1916" card.

 

"AND HERE COMES THE CLINTONS!!!"

[Danville_Wrestling 0]

Well I'm glad I skipped tonight's election coverage save watching 6 minutes of CNN a few moments ago. I love how the press is focusing next week just on Kentucky while completely ignoring Oregon which is the same day and will probably net a huge blowout win for Obama to cancel out a large Clinton win in Kentucky. I'm not at all shocked that Obama got trounced in West Virginia, I mean the demographics of the state favor him in no way shape or form. I laugh at how the state is worth 28 delegates but the press makes it seem like it was a gold mine. I mean Obama picked up 27 supers last week alone.

 

I think the Clinton arguments that this justifies rethinking the nominee is ludicrous because an Obama-McCain matchup totally redraws the electoral map between Republicans and Democrats. Obama could very well mount a challenge to McCain in Colorado, Missouri, and Virginia just to name a few states (while McCain could likely challenge Obama in New Hampshire and Massachusetts). It'd be at least refreshing than looking at the red-blue state gridlock where one damn state decides the whole thing.

 

I honestly believe that Clinton is remaining in this race to embarass Obama, expose him as a weakened candidate, and ruin him for the general election so she can run against a very aged John McCain in 2012. She probably won't stop by my hometown next week to campaign (and I wouldn't go regardless) but the people here in KY believe just as much ridiculous stuff as the people of West Virginia did before this vote. How anyone can see this WV vote as credible to the campaign baffles me when SIXTY-THREE percent of voters believed that the gasoline tax being lifted was a good idea.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see this whole thing go to the convention. The meeting on FL/Michigan on the 31st is staffed by Clinton diehards and they'll push for these delegates to be seated/votes to be counted into the popular vote totals setting off a battle on the Denver floor. All I have to say is that when the doors are locked Obama better have his knifes sharpened and ready because I don't like his chances against the Clintons in the backroom.

[NYU 0]

Do the Democrats even have a chance of winning Michigan and Florida in the general election?

 

I don't see how. You disenfranchised their votes and rendered the citizens meaningless in the entire primary process. Considering Obama clearly said he did not want the votes in those states to count because of the violated election rules, why would the people feel inclined to vote for him over McCain?

 

Prediction here: Obama will lose both Florida and Michigan to McCain in November, with Florida being a particularly critical hit because of its status as a swing state.

[Danville_Wrestling 0]

I always saw McCain winning FL (figured he'd have a good base with the retired vets down there) and the Dems taking Michigan so I think the whole argument is mute. I think there is an overstatement being made about Democratic voters just getting very pissed about their votes not counting and choosing not to go to the polls. Does anyone really think a large number of people are going to wake up on election day in November and say "Well you know what, the Democratic Party refused to count my vote so I'm going to sit out!" It accomplishes very little in the long run and what kind of statement can be made out of that? Also, based on how few people actually bother to vote in many of these primaries (albeit with a tight race this year set lots of records) I think people are overestimating the concern. It's not like these states aren't going to be counted in the Electoral College or anything.

 

It would just be a travesty to count FL/Michigan now since everyone knew going in their votes weren't counting. The DNC made that call and Clinton campaign chair Terry McAullife was one of the most vocal proponents of Michigan/Florida not counting because he said if they moved up their primaries they'd destroy the system.

 

After this tight race I wonder if it'll case a rethinking of the primary calendar and the phenomenon of front loading will be stopped. I bet California wishes they still held their primary in the first week of June now...

[NYU 0]

Does anyone really think a large number of people are going to wake up on election day in November and say "Well you know what, the Democratic Party refused to count my vote so I'm going to sit out!"

 

Yes, in Michigan and Florida at least. A number of people will either sit out or vote for McCain instead of giving the Democrats their support.

 

It accomplishes very little in the long run and what kind of statement can be made out of that?

 

It sends the message that the Democratic party can not afford to completely alienate two states who, in the case of Michigan they typically DO get support from, in the case of Florida can feasibly get their electoral college votes.

 

Also, based on how few people actually bother to vote in many of these primaries (albeit with a tight race this year set lots of records) I think people are overestimating the concern. It's not like these states aren't going to be counted in the Electoral College or anything.

 

This has been the biggest primary in years and years with record turnout, and there's a considerable amount of voters who were told they didn't count because the powers-that-be in their states tried to make a power play. I definitely think there's going to be some considerable backlash from this.

[godthedog 0]

the dems never had a good chance to win FL anyways. i feel they'll still take MI, though it'll be close.

[SuperJerk 0]

The Clinton campaign has reportedly rejected any kind of compromise on Florida and Michigan that's been proposed by the Obama campaign and the DNC so far.

 

The Obama campaign could totally make this into one hell of a negative ad if they wanted to.

 

"Barack Obama gave his word to follow the rules, and even took his name off the ballot. Senator Clinton's campaign was for it before the primary, but changed their minds after they won a primary her opponents weren't even part of. Does Sen. Clinton really care about Michigan, or is she just using us as pawns in her losing campaign? Obama: keeps his word. Clinton: breaks her word and uses us."

[NYU 0]

Uh, no. The McCain camp could bury Obama on the issue if they constantly reinforce the idea that Barack Obama supported the notion of their votes being excluded from the electoral process, while John McCain treats every voter as equals and seeks to earn the support of every single one. McCain could question why the Obama campaign didn't try to find a resolution to this matter with the DNC before the Florida and Michigan elections so this whole mess could be avoided, instead choosing to simply give up on them and wanting to withhold their inalienable right to vote as if it was no big deal.

 

Doesn't matter how true it has to be -- it's how the issue is spun. And as we've learned in recent years, the Republicans are very tactical when it comes to this.

[SuperJerk 0]

Doesn't matter how true it has to be -- it's how the issue is spun. And as we've learned in recent years, the Republicans are very tactical when it comes to this.

Good point.

 

Republicans are going to get killed in November because of the economy and the war. Everything else is just trivia.

[Danville_Wrestling 0]

McCain could question why the Obama campaign didn't try to find a resolution to this matter with the DNC before the Florida and Michigan elections so this whole mess could be avoided, instead choosing to simply give up on them and wanting to withhold their inalienable right to vote as if it was no big deal.

 

I don't think this would have many legs at all considering that all Obama has to do is throw out the words of all the other major Democratic candidates who supported the DNC's decision on FL/Michigan including Hillary Clinton. If the voters are going to get pissed off at anyone they should get pissed off at their state governments because those governments chose to violate the DNC's rules and got their votes annulled as a result. The whole notion of the DNC, Barack Obama, or any other actor that is not the state governments of FL/Michigan "disenfranchising" voters is ridiculous.

 

And I'm not surprised the Clinton team has said that they aren't going to compromise on FL/Michigan. Losing an election won't keep Hillary from the White House god forbid. The cynic in me just wants the DNC to go ahead and give her all the wide margins victories she won in those states and then some so we have a major riot in Denver, it'd make for great TV anyway.

[Guest Vitamin X]

Since I don't expect consistency or intellectual honesty from the Clinton campaign at this point, it was morbidly amusing to see how the Clinton campaign tried to spin the results of the primary in, of all places, West Virginia as a crucial win. I hope someone in the media remembers to mention that only 28 delegates are at stake tomorrow, and that West Virginia is worth 5 electoral votes in November. Tomorrow's victory will somehow show that white people won't vote for Obama, even though he won primary victories in Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, and Utah.

Don't forget Washington and the upcoming Oregon one! I've never lived around so many white people as I have in the Pacific NW.

 

Hillary is doing the smart thing and trying to campaign here as much as possible, though, I keep seeing ads for both campaigns having events in the area (the Portland metropolitan area alone compromises like, over half of the state population, so that would make sense). Why, today none other than Sean Astin- of The Goonies and Lord of the Rings fame- is stumping for Hillary on the second floor of the building I work at, at my school! And then across the hall, the black guy who played the President's assistant on The West Wing and some other people are campaigning for Obama. Oh, I feel so conflicted!

[Gary Floyd 0]

It's official: Edwards endorses Obama.

[CubbyBr 0]

And a huge boost for Obama....

 

He now has the endorsement of John Edwards.

[Atticus Chaos 0]

Did Edwards get his jet ski?

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

Ha!

[Danville_Wrestling 0]

It's really too bad that Edwards chose to run as VP last go around because I could see him and Obama on a ticket together. The big flaw in that ticket would be the lack of experience both of them bring to the table but they have very similar messages of "change" and look good in photo-ops together. However, Edwards has already been classified as a "loser" due to the '04 campaign w/Kerry so I very much doubt he's going to get the VP slot. Attorney General is a possibility though (which would be anathema to big business).

[Guest Vitamin X]

Good decision to announce it in Michigan, of all places, as well.

[SuperJerk 0]

Edwards would be a great Attorney General.

 

Meanwhile...

 

Democrat Barack Obama has won the endorsement of NARAL Pro-Choice America, a leading abortion rights advocacy organization that has supported rival Hillary Rodham Clinton throughout her political career.

 

NARAL officials said the decision wasn't intended to be a snub of Clinton, who is running to be the first female president.

 

They said the board decided to back Obama over Clinton because he is overwhelmingly favored to win the nomination and to heal what the organization viewed as a growing rift between black voters and white female activists that the protracted Clinton-Obama contest may have caused.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24618748/

 

I'd have felt better if they'd endorsed Clinton...their unwavering support for late-term abortions is hardly mainstream, and in my opinion this will hurt Obama more than it will help.

 

Speaking of Mrs. Clinton...this is what you might call a psuedo-endorsement...

 

Hillary Clinton on Wednesday reiterated her vow to stay in the Democratic presidential race, but she said it would be a "terrible mistake" for her supporters to vote for John McCain over Barack Obama.

 

"Anybody who has ever voted for me or voted for Barack has much more in common in terms of what we want to see happen in our country and in the world with the other than they do with John McCain," Clinton said on CNN's "The Situation Room."

 

"I'm going to work my heart out for whoever our nominee is. Obviously, I'm still hoping to be that nominee, but I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me ... understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/clinton/index.html

 

 

[Timmy8271 0]

Wait a minute, Isn't she the one that said Mccain would be a better president than Obama?

[Danville_Wrestling 0]

Hillary is trying to have it both ways right now with her saying she'll support the nominee and that she'd be better against McCain. However, she still believes she's going to be the nominee evidenced by her comments to the press today about how this race is going to go into "overtime" where she might be able to heave up a "3 point shot" and win it. Also, Terry McAuliffe was adament today that Hillary will be the nominee by Denver so it doesn't look like she's giving up and is really going to play this whole thing out and try to game the FL/Michigan delegates to win it. However, I think by May 31st Obama may have good enough numbers to the point that even if those delegates are reinstated in full he still wins the nomination and hits the newly adjusted magic number.

 

What can help Obama from Edwards endorsement is Edwards can urge his 19 delegates to back Obama which could net Obama about 20 or so additional delegates at the end of today and put him close to/over the 1,900 mark.

 

All I can see the DNC justifying on May 31st is that they reinstate possibly 50% of FL/Michigan's delegates. The out for them is that the RNC made that their penalty for FL/Michigan so it somewhat mitigates the political fallout that has erupted over this situation. 50% won't really help Clinton out all that much so she'll probably oppose it but it's probably the most that she's going to get because the "elite" part of the DNC is starting to gravitate to Obama and does not want a messy floor fight in July.

 

By the way, I'm surprised no one has commented yet on the GOP losing yet another House seat in Mississippi's 1st Congressional district. The GOP needs to seriously re-evaluate its election strategy because right now they are doing NOTHING to sell to voters. At this pace they are going to be isolated in the House and the prospect of them losing upwards of eight to nine senate seats still looks like a possibility. Here in KY I think Mitch McConnell is going to be in for a fight from a Democratic challenger. Overall, I think he'll win but it's going to be a tougher contest than some expect (and he might even have lost if Ben Chandler had decided to seek the seat since he was trailing McConnell 45-44% in test polls). A massive defeat by the GOP on election night would probably evict both John Boehner and McConnell from their leadership positions (which may not be a bad thing) and create major upheaval in the party. If I'm the GOP at this point you need to craft something to sell to voters other than "well I'm with Bush but I'm not with Bush" because that is NOT selling. What would definitely help the GOP is to craft some type of energy strategy that thinks both long-term and short-term. For example, the GOP can promise that we are going to invest in alternative energy sources BUT can really make a case that it's time to start drilling in the states again to get oil. Also, I think a case can be made to build more oil refineries since we haven't built one of those since 1974 and our infrastructure needs an upgrade. How you pay for these things at a time when we have a massive deficit I can't say but making the case for oil refineries/domestic oil with a twinge of long-term thinking might be able to put some Congressional Democrats on the defensive and the GOP can try to portray the issue as a "working people are suffering at the expense of environmental hippies/extremists" battle because many of the people that I talk to in the Midwest seem to echo these same ideas but for some reason those ideas are not being replicated at a national stage. It might also help if the Congressional GOP rediscovered its backbone and started being more vocal in its opposition to some of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid's policies.

[SuperJerk 0]

It might also help if the Congressional GOP rediscovered its backbone and started being more vocal in its opposition to some of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid's policies.

Since most voters probably have no idea who Reid and Pelosi are...exactly what policies are you referring to?

[Danville_Wrestling 0]

It might also help if the Congressional GOP rediscovered its backbone and started being more vocal in its opposition to some of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid's policies.

Since most voters probably have no idea who Reid and Pelosi are...exactly what policies are you referring to?

 

Well I'd say that if it was true most voters had no idea who Reid/Pelosi are that shows how inept the GOP machine has been. It's hard to rally voter sentiment if you have nothing to oppose (especially a political figure to oppose). The GOP has simply failed to categorize Reid or Pelosi in the same light the Democrats did with Newt when he was Speaker of the House which was the last time we had a tough battle between a divided government.

 

The GOP needs to be more vocal on a few fronts. First, the GOP needed to have a much better solution to the housing "crisis" than what the Democrats proposed which is in some respects a glorified bailout package (but it could be worse). For example, a way to speed up the foreclosure process might actually allow people who are looking for a home to enter the market and allay fears that if you foreclose a property it will be vandalized/become an area of crime and then lower others property values (which Bernanke expressed concern about in his testimony before Congress). Also, the GOP has been TOTALLY inept at selling the idea of free trade. In fact, on most economic policies in general the GOP has just shut up and allowed things to run their course and THAT IS NOT HOW TO GOVERN. It seems as if the GOP is just devoid of any ideas in how to take power, reminding me of the Liberal Democrats in Great Britain, and parties that are like that stand no chance of being elected.

 

The GOP also could be a more vocal proponent of strengthening borders, reducing the federal deficit (and showing more oversight of the budget process, go look at Tom Coburn's rants from Oklahoma as an example of what the GOP should be doing), and education reform. The GOP may have ideas but voters are not seeing them and the ideas they have presented are total garbage, like their joke of an immigration bill several years ago. The GOP is getting a backlash due to Bush's FP but also because of their gross incompetence in doing nothing of what was asked of them from their constituents. If you promise an amendment on gay marriage you have to deliver. If you promise fiscal responsibility you must deliver. However, the House GOP did none of this and wasted time except to get in with lobbyists like Jack Abramoff and they are facing massive consequences as a result.

 

I just think the GOP needs a complete shake-up from top to bottom. The top isn't good and the bottom is not as well as state GOP parties are in terrible shape. Look at KY, this state is basically devoid of major GOP figures outside of our 2 Republican senators, Anne Northup who couldn't oust a governor under fire for a hiring scandal and who lost her seat in the House in '06 (although she's trying to get it back), Trey Grayson, our sec. of state, and Richie Farmer (ag. commissioner who was a former UK basketball star). Other than that, the state GOP is horrible. Also, the GOP needs serious change because the shifting population of the country as well as changing demographics (such as rising Latino populations) in several states are getting ready to push it into being a marginal party if it isn't careful.

 

This is just not going to be a very good election cycle for Republicans, and especially conservatives like myself who feel as if we've been abandoned by the Republican Party.

[Jingus 0]

I'd have felt better if they'd endorsed Clinton...their unwavering support for late-term abortions is hardly mainstream, and in my opinion this will hurt Obama more than it will help.

Except that Obama himself is a supporter of partial birth abortion. He's voted for it in the past. That's one of the biggest negatives about the guy which makes me dislike him.

[AndrewTS 0]

Hillz has, uh, a much broader base in WV:

.

 

 

[Guest Desensitized]

"No, West Virginia, you're the wrong kind of Democrats. Try again."

[Atticus Chaos 0]

So, the ban on gay marraige in california was lifted today. Which means the republicans are almost certainly going to use this as a wedge issue in the election (like in 2004).

 

I almost wish Rudy had won the nomination now. He was the one republican who couldn't talk about the sanctity of marraige.

[Guest]

McCain is against a same-sex marriage ban, so it won't be used as anything in the general.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

The CEO of my company told me that he thinks Barack Obama is actually a Muslim plant, and that if he wins in November, he's going to "turn" and surrender to al Qaeda. Time to accelerate my job hunt.

[Guest Desensitized]

He has an nWo shirt under his suit.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

I think what bothers me most, even beyond the goofy paranoia and casual xenophobia, is the notion of surrendering to al Qaeda. I mean, it's not even a country or conquering entity. That's like saying "We surrender to a kickball team."