Oh, Canada

[Boon 0]

(CNN) -- After months of political instability, the government of Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin fell Monday evening when three opposition parties united to topple him with a no-confidence vote in the House of Commons.

 

Martin's center-left Liberal Party had been dogged by a corruption scandal. It will now face voters in an expected January election that could end 12 years of Liberal rule in America's largest trading partner -- after a campaign over the Christmas holidays that the prime minister argues most Canadians don't want.

 

The opposition Conservatives, the leftist New Democrats and the separatist Bloc Quebecois joined forces to bring down Martin's government, which had lost its majority in an election last year. Monday's final vote was 171-133.

 

The date of the new election will be announced Tuesday, but it is expected to be in mid- or late-January.

 

The Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois had been threatening for months to bring down Martin and force an election. But until Monday, his government had survived with the support of the New Democrats and a handful of independents.

 

The Liberals have run Canada since 1993. Recent polls give them the edge over opposition leader Stephen Harper's Conservatives, but with fewer than 40 percent support among those polled, indicating that another minority government is likely.

 

Polls also show that in vote-rich Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is well ahead of the other parties, making the task of assembling a majority even more difficult.

 

The Liberals took big losses in the House of Commons in June 2004 amid what was known as the sponsorship scandal, in which government money was paid to advertising firms to shore up support for Canadian unity in French-speaking Quebec.

 

Investigators determined most of the money went to firms with Liberal connections, with little or no work done in exchange, but placed most of the blame on former Prime Minister Jean Chretien.

 

Martin was cleared of wrongdoing and issued a dramatic apology on behalf of his government in April. The Liberals agreed to pay $1.1 million back to the government after an initial report was issued November 1.

 

But Harper's Tories have readied a good-government platform for the upcoming vote, with Harper vowing to curtail the influence of high-priced lobbyists in Ottawa if he becomes prime minister.

 

Martin had proposed elections in March, after the expected release of a second report on the sponsorship scandal. He blasted the opposition earlier this month for moving toward a quick election, because the campaign would take place over the holidays -- "when Canadians least want one."

 

Martin, who became prime minister in December 2003 after Chretien retired, became the fifth Canadian leader to lose a confidence vote. The last was Conservative Joe Clark, in 1979.

 

The Liberals' political difficulties mark a sharp turnaround in Canadian politics. Just five years ago, with the political right divided between two rival parties, the Liberals coasted to a clear majority for their third consecutive election win.

 

But the right has since unified into the new Conservative Party, which, coupled with the sponsorship scandal, helped cost the Liberals their majority in last year's election.

[CanadianChris 0]

So who gets a minority this time? I see the Bloc taking 60 seats in Quebec, so a majority is going to be all but impossible.

[ZGangsta 0]

The conservatives loose some ground to the NDP in Brittish Columbia and everything else stays the same. Barring any new scandals or monumental fuck ups (and knowing the Harper-led conservatives, that's a possibility) it's another Liberal minority.

[Slayer 0]

More like "No Canada"

[Boon 0]

Ba-zing.

[CanadianGuitarist 0]

Liberal Minority.

 

135 or so for the Grits, 70 a piece for the Blocs and Conersvatives and 30 for the NDP, all give or take.

 

A few more Bloc seats and NDP seats.

 

A few less PC seats.

 

About the same Liberals.

 

And roughly the exact same fucking thing we saw last June. God damned waste of time.

[Dogbert 0]

110 Liberal, 105 Conservative, 35 NDP, 60 Bloc.

 

Give or take, I think it'll be this close.

[CanadianChris 0]

If it's that close, we'll see ANOTHER election within a year.

[Dogbert 0]

Well, I don't see the Tories losing seats, and they currently sit at 98. The NDP will likely benefit the most from the Liberals' losses; however, 35 was an overestimation on my part. They'll likely end up with ~30, with the Bloc making up the ground.

[CanadianGuitarist 0]

I don't see the Tories taking 100 seats.

 

What you tell a pollster and what you actually vote are hugely different. I realise that works on both sides of the spectrum, but when push comes to shove, Harper is the least trustable and least likeable candidate.

 

Also, and I'm trying to do this as open mindedly as possible:

 

Why should I vote for the Tories?

-Tax cuts?

-Lower gas prices?

-Better fiscal managment?

-"We're not the Liberals?"

 

The Grits have pledged tax cuts, gas is the lowest it's been in 6 months, there have been 9 straight surplusses.

 

As for we're not the Libs, why would I change my vote because of what that dumbass Chretien? Martin is a trustable leader and they represent my ideals.

[Tawren 0]

The Conservatives are so goddamned dumb that it is impossible for them to gain seats. The only changes I see coming are a few more for the Bloc, a few more for the NDP, and a few less for the Libs and Cons.

 

I agree with what CanadianGuitarist said. "We're not the liberals" is all the conservatives have.

 

This whole thing is a retarded waste of time.

[CanadianGuitarist 0]

The Conservatives are so goddamned dumb that it is impossible for them to gain seats. The only changes I see coming are a few more for the Bloc, a few more for the NDP, and a few less for the Libs and Cons.

 

I agree with what CanadianGuitarist said. "We're not the liberals" is all the conservatives have.

 

This whole thing is a retarded waste of time.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

It's basically what they had last time, too. And Martin's been cleared, now.

[LaParkaMarka 0]

Last time they had a bit more, the whole closer ties with the States and increased military spending. They had more of a platform, now the Tories are just a bunch of bluster. I agree that this is a waste of time considering it will be another Liberal minority.

[CanadianGuitarist 0]

Last time they had a bit more, the whole closer ties with the States and increased military spending. They had more of a platform, now the Tories are just a bunch of bluster. I agree that this is a waste of time considering it will be another Liberal minority.

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You'll also recall there's been absolutely no chance for the Libs to govern. It's been god damned sponsorship namecalling, attempted non-confidence votes, and one squabble after another.

 

I'd have liked to have seen at least some kind of activity before an election was forced.

[cbacon 0]

It's likely that the NDP will gain some seats out of this, so i'm all for it.

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

Last time they had a bit more, the whole closer ties with the States and increased military spending. They had more of a platform, now the Tories are just a bunch of bluster. I agree that this is a waste of time considering it will be another Liberal minority.

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And of course that is not a particularly popular platform with most Canadians. If there's one thing you say with near certaintly, it's that most Canadian voters do not like George W. Bush, and will immediately be suspicious of anyone promoting closer ties with his government.

 

And just for fun:

 

[dubq 0]

That's not fun. It's just stupid.

[Red Baron 0]

Yes, waste that tax payers money.

 

If anything this election is going to hurt the Conservatives more by losing all the seats they have gained since the last election.

 

I know my riding will be Liberal forced and if not NDP.

[MARTYEWR 0]

The economy in Canada is still good, and likely will still be strong come January. Therefore, Liberals win, either a minority or majority. All other factors (scandals, health care, social issues, etc.) do not matter.

 

Sounds blunt, but it's true.

[Guest cosbywasmurdered]

It'll be another Liberal Minority. It's just another huge waste of money, and it'll hapen again within a year too.

[dubq 0]

The economy in Canada is still good, and likely will still be strong come January. Therefore, Liberals win, either a minority or majority. All other factors (scandals, health care, social issues, etc.) do not matter.

 

Sounds blunt, but it's true.

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It's very true. I'm just excited that when Harper loses this election it will (hopefully) mean a Peter McKay led opposition.

[Slayer 0]

Not really understanding your foreign (and therefore scary) parliamentary system, will there be a PM change soon?

[dubq 0]

There'll be an election in January/February, but it's doubtful that there'll be an actual PM change.

[CanadianChris 0]

It's almost guaranteed that either the Liberals or Conservatives will be looking for a new leader after this election, though.

[dubq 0]

Probably both!

[CanadianChris 0]

Nah, whoever wins gets to stay on as leader. Especially if it's Harper.

[dubq 0]

True, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Martin resign down the road (before the next election) if they end up with another Liberal minority.

[starvenger 0]

I agree with what CanadianGuitarist said. "We're not the liberals" is all the conservatives have.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not true. They'll probably also play the "we're not Belinda" card in the GTA. For all the good it'll do them. I wouldn't be surprised to see them gain 1 or 2 seats in York Region (Aurora and my new riding of Markham, which doesn't seem to like incumbents) though, which probably won't offset their losses in BC I think.

 

This whole thing is a retarded waste of time.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Of course it is, but it does lead to the possibility of more of those unintentionally hilarious Harper/Tory TV ads.

[LaParkaMarka 0]

I honestly really enjoy elections, in that the politics involved is pretty hilarious and entertaining. It's a gigantic waste of money, but the time spent = more funny for me.

 

I'm not sure how many seats the Tories will really lose in BC. Gurmant Grewal will almost certainly lose in Surrey, his wife probably isn't too popular now as well in her riding. But they have few urban BC seats as it is; the rural areas will almost certainly stay blue, and that's where the Tory base in BC is.

[MARTYEWR 0]

Nah, whoever wins gets to stay on as leader.  Especially if it's Harper.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I think Martin's equal to the same situation. Be prepared for 8 weeks of "Gomery cleared ME; it was all Chretien's fault".