2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[Failed Bridge 0]

Nice article on Griffey

 

Link~

[Big McLargeHuge 0]

That was a Griffey article? It read more like a piece about Bonds. It's Jeff Pearlman, so his opinion means dick to me, but Griffey "the best of his generation"?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Since when was Griffey ever a jackass? He was one of the most fan-friendly players of the '90s.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

The O's continue to eat to their own before the season starts:

 

Notes: Comebacker fells Walker

02/23/2007 2:59 PM ET

By Spencer Fordin / MLB.com

 

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- The serene and carefree atmosphere of Spring Training was shattered in a moment Friday, when Baltimore reliever Jamie Walker was hit in the back of his head by a line drive. Walker left the field under his own power and was taken to Holy Cross Hospital to evaluate his condition.

 

"It was a little scary. It got him in the head," said Baltimore manager Sam Perlozzo. "He seemed to be fine, but they're just doing some precautionary tests."

 

Walker underwent a CAT scan, which revealed a minor concussion. He's listed as day to day.

 

The incident happened during a fairly routine round of live batting practice. Walker was matched up against right fielder Nick Markakis, who had just stepped into the batter's box a pitch or two before. Markakis drilled a line drive back through the box, and Walker turned away from the ball but got hit directly in the back of his head.

 

"I think it was an offspeed pitch," Markakis said. "I saw it going right back up the middle, but everything happened so quick. It shocked me, pretty much. You hate to see something like that happen."

 

Walker never left his feet, but the shot elicited an audible gasp from the fans behind the first-base dugout. The team's trainers converged on the mound to check on Walker, and moments later, they walked him to the clubhouse. Walker had been pitching without a protective screen, which may have stopped the ball short of impact.

 

"It's optional for the pitcher," Perlozzo said. "Some guys don't feel like they can throw the ball properly with the screen in front of them. If they want it in front, they can put it there. If they don't, they can take it away."

 

"It definitely made my heart skip a little bit," added Markakis. "You hate to see something like that happen. Hopefully, he's OK, and we can get him back out there as soon as we can."

 

Walker, who signed a three-year deal for $12 million this winter, is one of the key pieces of Baltimore's rebuilt bullpen. The Orioles will monitor his progress before allowing him to return to full workout duty.

 

"He said he was a tough son of a gun," Perlozzo said. "That's what he said when I got there. I believe him."

better to have all this happen now than durring the season..

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Hardball Times has added Marcel projections to their player pages.

 

Eric Chavez:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/pl...lastName=Chavez

 

Scroll to the bottom.

[vivalaultra 0]

I'm not completely familiar with the Marcels, but after looking at a few and noticing that they look kinda...low compared to other projections I've seen, I read the description and, just to make sure, they're calculations based on career averages regressed to the mean proportionate to the time a player's been in the league, right? And therefore, they're nothing more than a baseline projection? I ask only because if Roy Oswalt is projected to win 14 games and Carlos Lee is projected to only hit 29 homeruns, there might be some disappointed people in Houston.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I'm not familiar with Marcel either, but projections as a whole tend to be conservative. There is some mathematical reasoning behind this that is totally escaping me at the moment. For projection systems, I still haven't seen one better than PECOTA. I know they've been shown to be about 70% accurate with hitters, and a little less than that with pitchers.

 

By the way, since you mentioned him specifically, here are some other projections for Lee this year, courtesy of Fangraphs. Looks like 29-32 HR is the expected performance, but I'm not sure that those are tailored for his new home park. Hopefully I can give PECOTAs take on it if BP 2007 ever ships.

 

Carlos Lee

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

When a guy hits 29-32 home runs each year for three years, that's probably going to be his projection. Comiskey and Miller Park were good hitters' parks, so he's not making a big move. He'll hit more home runs to left field but less to center and right. I couldn't see projecting more than 32 HRs. He could hit more, but that's not something I would predict.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Top 5 2007 NL Left Fielders, by PECOTA Projected VORP

 

Player Team EqA VORP

Alfonso Soriano CHN .296 43.9

Jason Bay PIT .308 43.6

Adam Dunn CIN .314 42.8

Carlos Lee HOU .295 36.6

Matt Holliday COL .296 34.4

[Hawk 34 0]

Since when was Griffey ever a jackass? He was one of the most fan-friendly players of the '90s.

 

If anything, he's been more of a "jackass" now since coming home to Cincinnati then he was in the 90's. He's still still tremendously fan friendly but is touchy with the local media but I can't blame him for that. His demeanor hasn't really changed, just his health. I do wonder if he hadn't gotten plauged with constant injuries, would he be in Barry's shoes? We know when he hasn't been hurt, he can still jack homers and make plays. He'll get to 600 (possibly this season if he's healthy) and in time, people will remember him more. I guess he's forgotten now because he plays in a small market and isn't complicted in any steroid talk right now along not being an real active enough player but his numbers along with his once (and still, to a lesser extent) tremendously marketable personality will place him among the top players of all time.

[vivalaultra 0]

Here's an article from today in the Houston Chronicle about a drug raid on a pharmaceuticals company in Florida that was selling steroids over the internet. It mentions that several current and former MLB players, NFL players, and a former Mr. Olympia were customers. Interestingly enough, it mentions Gary Matthews Jr. as a customer by name. Career year, anyone?

 

DA in Albany, N.Y., raids Fla. steroids center

Yearlong investigation of Internet drug sales may expose use by pro athletes

 

 

By BRENDAN J. LYONS, Senior writer

Copyright © Times Union

 

 

Check out the Times Union's full report on this story ORLANDO, Fla. -- A downtown pharmacy here was raided by a law enforcement task force on Tuesday, apparently as a result of a large New York state grand jury investigation into Internet drug sales.

 

The unusual inquiry, led by Albany County's district attorney, has taken New York narcotics agents and a federal task force deep inside a maze of shadowy pharmacies and Web sites that have reaped millions of dollars in profit by allegedly exploiting federal and state prescription laws, according to court records.

 

More than two dozen doctors, pharmacists and business owners have been, or will be, arrested in the coming days on sealed indictments charging them with various felonies for unlawfully distributing steroids and other controlled substances, records show.

 

The Times Union has learned that investigators in the year-old case, which had remained quiet until now, uncovered evidence that testosterone and other performance-enhancing drugs may have been fraudulently prescribed over the Internet to current and former Major League Baseball players, National Football League players, college athletes, high school coaches, and a former Mr. Olympia champion and another top contender in the bodybuilding competition.

 

The customers include Los Angeles Angels centerfielder Gary Matthews Jr., according to sources with knowledge of the investigation.

 

Sources also said New York Bureau of Narcotics Enforcement investigators recently interviewed a top physician for the Pittsburgh Steelers about his alleged purchase last year of roughly $150,000 of testosterone and human growth hormone.

 

In the past several years, Internet-based pharmacies have become the new drug delivery system for tens of thousands of customers nationwide, displacing smugglers, overseas mail-order companies and so-called ``gym rat'' dealers who sell steroids from the trunks of their cars, according to state and federal investigators.

 

Tuesday's raid of Signature Pharmacy, an Orlando business that did an estimated $36 million in business last year, could expose a long list of sports figures, celebrities and others who have turned to Internet pharmacies for illegal drugs such as steroids, authorities said. Albany County District Attorney David Soares said his office pursued the case, in part, because New York has some of the strictest prescription drug laws in the country. In addition, Signature Pharmacy last year did an estimated $6 million in business in New York, he said.

 

"We're arresting young men on street corners every day for selling drugs,'' he said. "Signature did $30 million last year ... $250,000 in Albany County.''

[Guest Oedipus Rex]

Ron Santo was turned down by the veterans yet again. Damn it, that's not fair.

[geniusMoment 0]

Little story on Dunn from a reds beat reporter:

 

Just a big kid

Dunn asked for two tickets to see the movie '23' at a downtown Sarasota theatre and was asked to prove his age with ID.

 

"What? How old do you have to be to see this movie?" said Dunn, 27. He was told he had to show ID because he bought two tickets. "Guess the guy thought I was buying a ticket for a 7-year-old. I've never been carded in my life," he said.

 

The other ticket was for Griffey, who was standing next to the ticket booth, arms folded, laughing heartily.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

This little gem came from Murray Chass of the New York Times today, and it's caused quite the controversy. BP and FJM have already responded to it. Here's the whole snippet from a longer article about Spring Training and topics that should be off limits.

 

Statistics mongers promoting VORP and other new-age baseball statistics.

 

I receive a daily e-mail message from Baseball Prospectus, an electronic publication filled with articles and information about statistics, mostly statistics that only stats mongers can love.

 

To me, VORP epitomized the new-age nonsense. For the longest time, I had no idea what VORP meant and didn’t care enough to go to any great lengths to find out. I asked some colleagues whose work I respect, and they didn’t know what it meant either.

 

Finally, not long ago, I came across VORP spelled out. It stands for value over replacement player. How thrilling. How absurd. Value over replacement player. Don’t ask what it means. I don’t know.

 

I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that’s their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans’ enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.

 

People play baseball. Numbers don’t.

 

Normally this stuff doesn't bother me that much, but this guy write for the NY freakin' Times. His job is to cover and write about baseball. It's just ridiculous that these old time baseball guys can't take 15 minutes to learn a couple new concepts, so they resort to name-calling and holier than thou rhetoric. It's lazy reporting and it's dull writing.

 

And Jay Jaffe from bp.com responds:

 

NY Times columnist Murray Chass went out like a bitch today, with an anti-intellectual screed that called BP out by name, claming that new-age statistics were undermining most fans' enjoyment of baseball. It's codgerism of the worst kind, where somebody says "I don't understand this, therefore it's useless. Kids these days! Now, where did I put my pants?"

 

Chass is a Spink honoree, but I'm through explaining to younger generations of readers why that is. They can judge him on his halcion-dazed ravings and know-nothing attitude. It's a dark day for baseball.

[geniusMoment 0]

"It's a dark day for baseball."

 

That's a little bit dramatic I'd say.

[Failed Bridge 0]

ya, they should save that phrase for when Barry passes Hammerin' Hank.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

ya, they should save that phrase for when Barry passes Hammerin' Hank.

 

Well, it hasn't happened yet. I'm still hoping it won't.

[The Man in Blak 0]

I'm personally ambivalent towards the value of VORP (it's not predictive, it's weighed from an arbitrary baseline), but to openly dismiss and all "new-age statistics" as though they can't possibly bring a better understanding of the game is kind of childish.

 

That being said, Jaffe's response is equally as childish and, frankly, more worthy of scorn than Chass's willful ignorance because it furthers the negative perception around the sabermetric movement. I wouldn't have appreciated reading that on his Futility Infielder blog, let alone a site like Baseball Prospectus that has ambitions of journalistic credibility.

[Guest]

Good point.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The thing is BP was called out by name in Chass' column and it wasn't because of poor writing or product, but because he has some childish apprehension to embracing the changing game of baseball. Jaffe's response was equally negative, but it came in a chat that was linked on their website. I think in light of the audiences and context, Chass was far more out of line. It was just an unnecessay knock against an organization that has done a lot of positive things to enhance the public's general understanding of baseball.

[naiwf 0]

The thing is BP was called out by name in Chass' column and it wasn't because of poor writing or product, but because he has some childish apprehension to embracing the changing game of baseball. Jaffe's response was equally negative, but it came in a chat that was linked on their website. I think in light of the audiences and context, Chass was far more out of line. It was just an unnecessay knock against an organization that has done a lot of positive things to enhance the public's general understanding of baseball.

 

Except sabremetrics hasn't enhanced the general public's understanding of anything related to the sport. Most baseball fans don't care about it, and the majority of those that do look down on those that don't just as frequently as it works in the other direction, if not moreso. It's like one group of snobs arguing that another group of snobs has an attitude problem when both sides do. There will never be a day that casual fans will be arguing about VORP, WARP or isoP when talking about why they like to watch the game, or who their favorite player is/was. Baseball's biggest asset is its century plus long history. No one knew what Babe Ruth's VORP was, but they knew his BA, HR and RBI totals, and that's what they'll compare everyone with. The number 755 means something to Joe Blow, as do 3,000 hits or 300 wins. These new stats are not recognizable because when you begin to need an understanding of advanced calculus or statistics to watch a sport, or "increase your understanding" of it, I think that's going too far. I'm sure it enhances the interest for some, but that camp needs to realize most people watch baseball to relax and don't take the game as something to be disected and analyzed by stats you need complex formulas to determine. They just want to see someone club a 450 foot HR or make a game saving catch, not guesstimate how many wins he contributed to the team the prior season or whether some dude's going to regress to the mean.

[Guest]

I HATE agreeing with you on that, but it's the truth. The public is too fickle to care about that aspect of the game.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

But sabermetrics aren't understood by the general fan because there is no outlet for them to learn them. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. How is the average fan supposed to understand the importance and applicability of these stats if they have to watch John Kruk on Baseball Tonight instead of Rob Neyer, or read Murray Chass or Bill Plaschke instead of something by Bill James.

 

Stat guys don't hate regular fans. Some are frustrated by the fact that they are called nerds and that the stuff they care about is put down by others. That they try to bring something new to baseball conversations other that RsBI and are totally rebuffed. Why is is that things have to be dumbed down because it was arbitrarily decided 100 years ago that BA was a way to measure hitters and W-L was the way measure pitchers?

 

VORP is not something that you need calculus to understand. It's probably the simplest thing to understand. How much more did this guy contribute than an average, everday player. It's quick and easy to digest.

 

I still love baseball. I enjoy watching the game at home with a beer. The fact that I love it so much leads me to search for new knowledge. How is that a bad thing?

[naiwf 0]

But sabermetrics aren't understood by the general fan because there is no outlet for them to learn them. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. How is the average fan supposed to understand the importance and applicability of these stats if they have to watch John Kruk on Baseball Tonight instead of Rob Neyer, or read Murray Chass or Bill Plaschke instead of something by Bill James.

 

Stat guys don't hate regular fans. Some are frustrated by the fact that they are called nerds and that the stuff they care about is put down by others. That they try to bring something new to baseball conversations other that RsBI and are totally rebuffed. Why is is that things have to be dumbed down because it was arbitrarily decided 100 years ago that BA was a way to measure hitters and W-L was the way measure pitchers?

 

VORP is not something that you need calculus to understand. It's probably the simplest thing to understand. How much more did this guy contribute than an average, everday player. It's quick and easy to digest.

 

I still love baseball. I enjoy watching the game at home with a beer. The fact that I love it so much leads me to search for new knowledge. How is that a bad thing?

 

Like it or not, the 100 year headstart for the counting stats is not something you can catch up with no matter how antiquated they might seem. Unless you get a bunch of well respected former players to present the sabremetric side of things, it's always going to seem like something that only "nerds" understand. Then when you factor in that meatheads like Kruk get national TV gigs, it doesn't seem likely that it'll happen. In most things, people don't like change, and anything that requires thought will likely get pushed to the side for something that doesn't. For example, you might understand what VORP is and how to arrive at said number but let's be blunt, most fans are not as intelligent as a stat guy, they're not as interested in utilizing their brains when it comes to a game, and that's how a guy like Ryan Howard hitting a lot of HRs might make him seem like a better choice for MVP than Pujols even though there are about 100 stats he'd fall behind Pujols in on a regular basis.

 

There's nothing wrong with wanting to find new ways to enjoy the game, I just think some and I emphasize some stats guys look at those numbers as things that MUST be taken seriously if you want to consider yourself a fan. Both writers were wrong, but the guy who retaliated from BP ultimately harms his side of the argument more by spouting venom instead of taking the chance to explain to Joe Blow what VORP is and what value it has in relation to their interest in the game or comparing players. I hope that makes sense.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Naiwf is mostly right, but there's a small snippet of the piece that is worth bringing up. You mentioned Babe Ruth's statistics, namely Batting average and the like. You know how slugging percentage got its start? It debuted in the Babe Ruth era as sportswriters sought new measures of Ruth's productivity. RBIs have only been an official statistic since about 1920. If a statistic measures something new and important, it will probably gain appeal.

 

To me, what is important is not the statistics but the concepts behind them. Honestly, the average intelligent fan does not need to know a player's VORP. They merely need to be aware that there is a minimum baseline to expect from a player at each position. You don't need to know the precise park factor of Chase Field. You just need a vague idea that it inflates offense. There is a danger of getting bogged down in statistics. What people don't realize about Bill James is that he wrote about the underlying reasons behind the statistics, and thus created a greater understanding about baseball.

[Vern Gagne 0]

I'm not familiar with Marcel either, but projections as a whole tend to be conservative. There is some mathematical reasoning behind this that is totally escaping me at the moment. For projection systems, I still haven't seen one better than PECOTA. I know they've been shown to be about 70% accurate with hitters, and a little less than that with pitchers.

 

By the way, since you mentioned him specifically, here are some other projections for Lee this year, courtesy of Fangraphs. Looks like 29-32 HR is the expected performance, but I'm not sure that those are tailored for his new home park. Hopefully I can give PECOTAs take on it if BP 2007 ever ships.

 

Carlos Lee

 

 

I was just looking at the pitching projections for Marcel. No pitcher with more than 15 wins. No pitcher with more than 200 innings. I'd say that very conservative.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Honestly, the average intelligent fan does not need to know a player's VORP. They merely need to be aware that there is a minimum baseline to expect from a player at each position. You don't need to know the precise park factor of Chase Field. You just need a vague idea that it inflates offense.

 

I agree with you that the concepts behind the statistics are important, but I think that the contention here is that those concepts (at least the specific ones you've cited here) may not require heavy statistical analysis as explanation and these statistics (VORP) may actually distort one's view of the game, rather than enhance it.

 

Having a baseline for performance isn't necessarily something that VORP created - "old codgers" such as Chass likely do have a general idea about what you should normally expect from any typical MLB player, even if that expectation is grounded in more "traditional" stats like batting average and so forth. VORP can certainly come into the picture to quantify that expectation, but it's certainly not the only road that leads to this understanding and (more importantly) it can't hold any value unless it comes with a deeper understanding of what the stat actually tracks (and how the underlying factors behind the stat actually influence the outcome of a baseball game).

 

Where Chass should be reprimanded is in the fact that he freely admits that, as a sports journalist, he doesn't care to find that understanding and is much more content to remain loyal to his ways and beliefs, even though they could be inaccurate. He doesn't care to do the legwork and propose a reasonable argument against the philosophy that drives these statistics. It's not a "dark day for baseball", but it is irresponsible journalism to be so carelessly dismissive of new ideas that surround the game.

 

As for Jaffe, I don't care if it's a posted chat or not, you don't have somebody on your staff calling somebody who criticizes your work a "bitch" in print, no matter how baseless the criticism may be.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

For those who were disappointed in Jay Jaffe's poor taste, here's a more official response from Baseball Prospectus.

 

An Open Letter to Murray Chass

 

by Nate Silver

 

Hi, Murray.

 

I write to you as one baseball fan to another. There are only a few of us who are fortunate enough to have turned our love for baseball into a career. We are both in that lucky group. That’s why I was disappointed to read the following in your column today.

 

I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that’s their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans’ enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.

 

Fans today have a lot of choices about how they consume baseball in general, and their baseball media in particular. Baseball Prospectus’ mission is to provide them with an informed and independent perspective that helps to accentuate their enjoyment of the game.

 

I am not sure whether you have made a habit of clicking on those links in our daily newsletter, but if you do, you will find that we are talking about many of the same things that you are. We’re talking about how the Oakland A’s can win the World Series, how the Veterans’ Committee is doing a poor job of recognizing the contributions of players like Ron Santo, and how recent moves in the baseball industry are shoving baseball’s most devoted fans aside.

 

Sometimes, our arguments involve statistical analysis and sometimes they do not. To the extent that we use statistics, we look at them as part of the puzzle rather than the whole picture. We do, however, try and ensure that where statistics are used, they are used correctly. We have argued, for example, that the writers who selected Justin Morneau over Derek Jeter in the American League MVP balloting made a mistake not because they didn’t use statistics, but because they used statistics in the wrong way. They focused on Morneau’s RBI total, while ignoring that Jeter did a far superior job of getting on base, plays a much more difficult defensive position — and actually did a better job than Morneau of knocking runners in from scoring position when he had the opportunities.

 

We have found that millions of baseball fans appreciate our perspective on issues like these. At worst, we hope to offer them a choice. At best, we hope to increase the caliber of baseball discussion, and to give them another way to love and enjoy the game.

 

I would personally invite you to attend one of the events on our book tour, to appear on Baseball Prospectus Radio, or to participate in a baseball prospectus chat. I think you will be pleasantly surprised by how much you have in common with our readers. We are all baseball fans first, and we come carrying neither agendas nor pocket protectors. Alternatively, I am in New York frequently, and would invite you to attend a Yankees or Mets game with me. You have done a lot for the game of baseball and it would be a pleasure to meet you. I hope that your comments today reflected nothing more than a lack of familiarity with our people and our product.

 

Sincerely,

 

Nate Silver

Executive Vice President

Baseball Prospectus

[Mik 0]

I feel like that was an excellent response.

 

Did anyone get the 2007 B-Pro? Haven't gotten around to getting it yet but will have to once I finish the books I have sitting in the queue.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I feel like that was an excellent response.

 

Did anyone get the 2007 B-Pro? Haven't gotten around to getting it yet but will have to once I finish the books I have sitting in the queue.

 

Mine shipped yesterday so I should have it by Friday. If anyone wants me to do little write-ups on certain players, just shoot me a line.