2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[KingPK 0]

This has lead to some interesting discussion today. We should attack a different division each day with everyone chipping in with their perspectives on teams.

 

Would making separate threads for each division garner enough discussion?

[KingPK 0]

via rotoworld;

 

Curt Schilling told WEEI on Thursday he plans to become a free agent following the season because the Red Sox are not willing to negotiate a contract extension with him now or during the season.

The Red Sox front office has hinted that they want to see how the 40-year-old pitches this year before committing more money to him and Schilling was reportedly told of their official stance Wednesday. There was speculation that he had been discussing a one-year extension worth $13 million. Like Schilling's retirement plans, this too could change.

 

Almost forgot to touch on this.

 

Smart move by the Red Sox and smart by Schilling to downplay the situation. One, it'll give Curt a kick in the ass to keep in shape and prove to not only Boston, but the rest of the baseball world that he's worth one more year and two, if Curt is pretty good and the rest of the staff shakes out like it has the potential to, they could send him to another team at the deadline and try to get whatever piece(s) they may need for a playoff run. If Curt is good and the rest of the rotation ISN'T, then he's got them by the shorthairs and can probably demand $15 million and possibly get it.

 

Of course, if Curt stinks and the rotation does as well, an extension will probably be the furthest thing from the Sox management's minds.

[naiwf 0]

This has lead to some interesting discussion today. We should attack a different division each day with everyone chipping in with their perspectives on teams.

 

Would making separate threads for each division garner enough discussion?

 

I doubt it. The AL East would get more than enough because of Yankees/Sawx, and the NL Central would lead the league in posts just because of viva. I don't think anyone really cares about the teams in the West and while the NL East & AL Central can and should be competitive no one here cares to post enough about it to warrant 6 distinct threads.

[Bored 0]

Coming out April 24th:

 

 

Ehhh, Game 1 was the only real thriller so the only reason to put this out is to have Reggie's three consecutive homeruns on DVD. As you can see since it was a six game series, Game 5 of the ALCS is in the collection.

 

Since they put out three sets last year of N.L. winners last year and the first two this year are from the A.L. I'm going to guess the 1985 World Series will be next or possibly the 1993 World Series. Obviously the 1991 one is going to wait with the 1987 set being released next month.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Im hoping they get the 83 Os/Phillies Set out..even though Ive been watching the games on MASN Os Classic (or whatever its called).

 

The Os/Nats preseason game is on MASN next Saturday at 1pm..YAY!

 

I cant wait!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The 1983 World Series was pretty boring, and not just because the Phils lost.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

I'm only doing this because I'm bored...

 

2007 Kansas City Royals

C: Their options are John Buck and Jason LaRue. Buck had a .702 OPS (and improving his OBP, although shitty, every season for the past 3 seasons) along with 33 XBH (36.2% of his hits). Jason LaRue plummeted off the face of the earth last season in limited time with Cincinnati, going .196/.317/.346 but he did have 8 HR in 191 AB (.041 HR/AB). LaRue put up a .720 OPS last year in 51 AB vs. Lefties and Buck managed a .787 OPS vs. Lefties last year in 114 AB. LaRue has shown in 2004 and 2005 that he can put up solid OPS' (.765 and .806) so it wouldn't shock me if Buck starts out as starter but gives way to LaRue eventually during the season.

 

1B: Ryan Shealy and Justin Huber will be battling here, with Ross Gload having an outside shot. Shealy really did well upon arriving in Kansas City (.789 OPS in 193 AB) along with 18 XBH (33.3%). He had a dreadful 7.7% BB rate however and needs to improve that to help his cause. Justin Huber is another highly regarded, or was a highly regarded prospect in the Royals system however in 88 MLB AB he has struggled with a .216/.271/.261 line with only 6 BB (6.8%) and should be the backup to Shealy to start the season.

 

2B: Mark Grudzielanek is a solid option here for the Royals. He put up a .740 OPS and, as seems to be the trend with the hitters, didn't walk as much as he should have (28 BB in 548 AB). He is a good doubles hitter and makes for a solid #2 or #6 hitter.

 

3B: Esteban German should have the job locked up here after a very good, if "unknown" season of .326/.422/.459 in a respectable 279 AB. He had a great 40 BB/49 K rate and showed power with 26 XBH, including 18 doubles. Mark Teahen could back him up if he doesn't land a starting role in the outfield.

 

SS: Angel Berroa fell off a cliff last year and the options of Blanco and Sanchez behind him are even less appealing. Berroa did improve his XBH per AB rate (5.8%) however his BB are declining every season, which certainly isn't encouraging. A prototypical #9 hitter here.

 

LF: The Royals have a glut of outfielders, which is good and bad. Emil Brown put up a very solid .815 OPS along with 41 doubles and 15 HR and has the inside track here. Mark Teahen can be the backup LF and backup 3B, having had an .874 OPS, one of the best on the team. Teahen displayed good HR power with 18 but only had 21 doubles.

 

CF: David Dejesus gets the job and will be keeping it after another .800+ OPS season last year with .810. He showed good doubles power with 36 and also had a solid BB/K rate of 40 to 73. Shane Costa should be the backup here after a .709 OPS and 20 doubles in 237 AB.

 

RF: Mark Teahen could be the starter here however Reggie Sanders may be battling him. Ideally, Teahen would be the starter with Sanders backing him up in RF with his .729 OPS from last season. A possible platoon situation could be formed as Sanders had an .828 OPS against lefties while Teahen had an .895 OPS against righties.

 

DH: Mike Sweeney will be slotted here despite an injury plagued season last year where he still put up a solid .787 OPS and had 41% of his hits go for extra bases.

 

Offense: Outside of a couple positions like SS and C, the Royals have a surprisingly good offense. Their outfield alone could comprise of three players with .800+ OPS' along with their 3B. 1B and Mike Sweeney at DH should also contribute to the OPS rise. They also have 3B Alex Gordon quickly rising, although a question is raised as to where he goes given how well German did last season.

 

SP: Their rotation isn't that great if they have Scott Elarton as an option. He had a 5.34 ERA and threw more BB than K last season along with given up 26 HR. Odalis Perez had a very good 4.32 FIP despite his sucky real ERA with the Royals. Opponents managed to hit .295 off him however he also allowed 9 HR in 67 IP (13.4%). The good news is that he had a 2.66 K/BB rate. Zack Greinke should be a solid rotation member if he can get back to his 2004 numbers however given his mental struggles last year, that remains to be seen. Luke Hochevar may have an outside shot at getting a rotation spot and could be a very useful member, however concern arises if he would be called up too early. Gil Meche should be the team's #1 and did very well last year, including a surge in K at 156 in 186.2 IP however since the Royals tend to suck... Luke Hudson managed to go 6-3 in 15 starts down the stretch last season upon being put into the starting rotation. Hudson put up a 4.80 ERA in his 15 starts but take out his 10 ER game and he went 88 IP with 37 ER (3.78 ERA).

 

Ideally, my rotation would be the following: Gil Meche, Odalis Perez, Luke Hudson, Zack Greinke, and Luke Hochevar. This rotation should be decent but it sucks and that can be somewhat attributed to the Royals defense behind them. Angel Berroa had a .969% fielding and 18 errors at SS and Esteban German had 5 errors and a .929% fielding at 3B.

 

RP: Their bullpen isn't spectacular however Joel Peralta (57 K vs. 17 BB in 73.2 IP) is solid despite the 10 HRA. David Riske was solid for the Soxes with a 3.83 ERA in 44 IP. He should help add depth to the Royals pen. Todd Wellemeyer put up a 3.63 ERA despite a 37 BB vs. 37 K rate in 57 IP. If he can lower his BB a bit, he should put together another good season ERA wise. Joe Nelson walked a lot of batters (24 in 44.2 IP) but he also had 44 K, which is encouraging along with allowing 5 HR. Octavio Dotel should be an adequate closer if he can stay healthy, which he has been unable to do the past 2 seasons. Jimmy Gobble put up a really good FIP of 4.19 (incl. 6 starts in 60 games) comparable to Peralta's 4.11 FIP. As a reliever only, Gobble managed a 4.15 FIP despite a 4.50 ERA in the role. He had a very solid 57 K vs. 18 BB in 60 IP however he did allow 9 HR.

 

Overall: This Royals team really should be better than it is. Offensively, they have a solid enough lineup and rotation wise, they're bad, but not the worst ever. If they had any semblance of defense (and they desperately need to get rid of Angel Berroa) their rotation would probably put up better numbers, as evidenced by what Luke Hudson was able to do without the 1 horrible outing. Bullpen wise, again a bad but not worst ever group. They could improve a lot like the rotation with a better defense.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

3B: Esteban German should have the job locked up here after a very good, if "unknown" season of .326/.422/.459 in a respectable 279 AB. He had a great 40 BB/49 K rate and showed power with 26 XBH, including 18 doubles. Mark Teahen could back him up if he doesn't land a starting role in the outfield.

 

You're sort of ignoring the 800 pound gorilla in the room. A gorilla by the name of Alex Gordon.

 

The Royals are going to finish last in the division, but I think they'll end up much better than anyone else expects. They'll put up a fight against a lot of good teams and beat up on some of the other crappy teams in the AL. Gordon will get the 3B job out of Spring Training, and Billy Butler and Luke Hochevar will probably be up by the All-Star break. They may be young, but they are better than the incumbents and could contribute to a strong second half run. I wouldn't be surprised to see Teahan moved for some pitching help either.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

I mentioned Gordon later, but you're right. German did much better at 2B defensively so I could see him replacing Grudz at 2B with Grudz coming off the bench, leaving Gordon at 3B.

 

It's a shame that Gordon couldn't move to SS to replace Berroa (yes, I hate Berroa). I just really hope that Hudson gets a rotation spot given his solid numbers last year w/o the 1 game shelling.

 

Next possible SS replacement for Berroa...

- Jeff Bianchi (2nd round, 2005) who has hit .414/.500/.721 in 140 AB in rookie ball at ages 18 and 19. 39.6% of his hits have gone for extra bases and he has a 25 BB vs. 25 K rate. In 2005 he had 4 errors and a .972% fielding.

 

The Royals do have the potential to have a really good rotation down the line with Luke Hochevar, Billy Buckner, and Chris Nicoll coming up the ladder with Brent Fisher a few years away. As for the bullpen guys like Ryan Braun and Joe Nelson should be making impacts this year (Nelson) and the next couple (Braun).

 

Also of note, Dayton Moore took over the Royals GM duties last year. Given that they have the #2 pick this year, it will be curious to see how they fare in this year's draft class too.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

2. Craig Biggio .246-It's hard to think that Bidge will pick his average up dramatically next season, as he's declined in average significantly over the last few years, but, he's typically been a strong starter and will hopefully get his 3000 hit by late June/early July and take a back-up role to Mark Loretta, who, as everyone knows is a very good hitter.

 

I just caught this on a second read through. Loretta is not a very good hitter nor is he even a good or average hitter. He's below average and he's lucky he found a team that was willing to pick him up. And don't get fooled by his lack of errors in the field either because he's not very good defensively.

[vivalaultra 0]

2. Craig Biggio .246-It's hard to think that Bidge will pick his average up dramatically next season, as he's declined in average significantly over the last few years, but, he's typically been a strong starter and will hopefully get his 3000 hit by late June/early July and take a back-up role to Mark Loretta, who, as everyone knows is a very good hitter.

 

I just caught this on a second read through. Loretta is not a very good hitter nor is he even a good or average hitter. He's below average and he's lucky he found a team that was willing to pick him up. And don't get fooled by his lack of errors in the field either because he's not very good defensively.

 

What's not good about him? The fact that he has a career .299 average, the fact that he hasn't hit below .280 in 10 years, his 1.2/1 K/BB rate, his 33 doubles last year? I mean...come on...dude did get 181 hits last year. And he doesn't have to be sparkling defensively. Biggio isn't Bill Mazeroski with the glove at 2B anymore, but he's been fine riding on the coattails of Adam Everett and his ungodly range the last few years.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

What's not good about him?

 

What's not good about Mark Loretta? It could be the fact that he has barely cracked a .700 OPS in each of the past two seasons, including his blistering .666 in the second half last year. It could be the paltry .254 EqA that put he put up last year. It could be that he was the like 22nd or something in batting runs above replacement for qualified 2B, even though he played everyday for a good team batting in the 2-hole. I'm not arguing that he's not a possible upgrade to Biggio, I'm concerned that you think he's a "very good hitter."

[Brett Favre 0]

He's a very good singles hitter.

[vivalaultra 0]

And that's exactly what role I was saying he should have. He should be batting 2nd, behind Chris Burke and before Berkman. All I know is that he's a good #2 hitter. He makes contact and doesn't strike out alot. He doesn't have to have a 1.000 OPS to do that. He's not gonna bat clean-up, and if he does bat clean-up, that means that the Astros are dead last in the division and Brad Ausmus is seeing time at shortstop.

 

Edit: Looking at the thing, I see that I didn't type correctly. I meant to say that Mark Loretta is a very good #2 hitter.

[Fuzzy Dunlop 0]

I got tickets for the Astros April 9th, Cardinals April 22nd, Mariners June 12th, and Giants July 16th. I'm gonna try to get some more Cards games if I ever get through the Virtual Waiting Room again.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

He has no home run power either in the past 2 years. Loretta also had a road split of .261/.313/.309 last year in 342 PA. Not exactly encouraging as he hit .258/.341/.313 in 250 PA in 2005 as well.

 

He'll be 35 years old and he was the definition of league average (park adjusted) in OBP and well under league average in SLG and OPS in 2006.

 

Biggio on the road in 2006 = .178/.253/.288 but at home he hit .298/.346/.522.

Biggio on the road in 2005 = .235/.296/.386 but at home he hit .291/.350/.540.

 

You're basically replacing Biggio in Loretta with a Biggio without the ability to slug the ball at home. Loretta slugged .411 at home in 2006 (in Fenway!) and .385 at home in 2005.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Manny Acta sounds like he is going to be a great manager. He's not going to bunt or steal jus to be "aggressive." He wants high OBP guys at the top of the order. He's going to bat Ryan Church second if he's healthy. And best of all, he's open to new ideas and information. Too bad he has no talent to work with in Washington.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

He has no home run power either in the past 2 years. Loretta also had a road split of .261/.313/.309 last year in 342 PA. Not exactly encouraging as he hit .258/.341/.313 in 250 PA in 2005 as well.

 

That's only part of it. His ISOp last year was around .080, which is roughly .100 below the league average. That's terrible.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

The Arizona Diamondbacks should be a fun team to watch and I'm hoping GM Josh Byrnes has success there after being a part of the Sox brass.

 

Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young are all very good prospects who should start and this club could surprise in the NL West IMO.

[The Man in Blak 0]

There's no way that I can see Esteban German getting a start at 3B over Gordon or Teahen, especially given Bell's reluctance to give him any sort of regular playing time last year. That being said, he really should be in the lineup and I'd be tempted to gamble with him at shortstop over Berroa, who is just a cataclysmic team-sinking vortex of suck at this point.

 

The Royals are going to be a real intriguing team next year, when some of those veteran contracts roll off the books: Sweeney, Elarton, Sanders, and Grudzielanek (if he declines his '08 player option) will be making room for fresh blood from the minors like Butler, Bianchi, and maybe even somebody like Tyler Lumsden or Chris Lubanski. The 2007 season, though, doesn't look as promising, despite appearing to be an improvement over the debacle that was last year's team.

 

As for Loretta, the guy isn't really an All-Star, but he gets on base at an average clip, offers passable (though not necessarily good) defense at multiple infield positions, and puts the ball in play. He would be decent as a pinch-hitter/super-sub to spell Biggio and the rest of the infield until Hunter Pence gets called up to the big league club; once he arrives, Pence could take center field and allow Chris Burke (a superior hitter and glove man, from what I've seen) to sub into the infield slots, relegating Loretta further down the bench.

[vivalaultra 0]

With my limited knowledge of sabermetrics, can you please give a very, very in-depth definition of ISOp? I assume it's not the International Society of Pharmacovigilance? And I still think Loretta will be good for the team. He might be a singles hitter, but if he's on first base, he only need trot when Berkman or Carlos Lee knock him in.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

With my limited knowledge of sabermetrics, can you please give a very, very in-depth definition of ISOp? And I still think Loretta will be good for the team. He might be a singles hitter, but if he's on first base, he only need trot when Berkman or Carlos Lee knock him in.

 

Real simple: ISO = Slugging - batting average

 

It measures the ability to hit something other than singles, which Loretta has no ability to do. In general, a decline in ISO precludes a steep decline in actual performance, although it is more pronounced amongst young hitters. It's also one of the five stats used to select a player's comparables.

[vivalaultra 0]

Ah, so what would be a good ISO for a 2B or for a #2 hitter?

[The Man in Blak 0]

I'm not sure that IsoP is really the best stat to invoke in this argument - I agree that a marked decline in isolated power could preclude a severe drop in performance, but Loretta's career IsoP is .103. Even in his career year in 2004, he only chipped in an IsoP of .160. Though .080 isn't a great stat, it's not all that far removed from what Loretta has done throughout his MLB tenure.

 

Loretta is a slap hitter, like he's always been, and he's almost got a .300 career batting average to show for it. I don't think I'd want him out there near the top of the lineup every day, but I think he's a fair improvement over Eric Bruntlett as a utility player off of the bench (which is where I imagine he'll be).

[vivalaultra 0]

Hey now...there ain't nothing wrong with Bruntlett. Bruntlett's clutch, yo. I'm not basing that on any statistic, but, Eric Bruntlett's the clutchest motherfucker in the world.

[strummer 0]

Manny Acta sounds like he is going to be a great manager. He's not going to bunt or steal jus to be "aggressive." He wants high OBP guys at the top of the order. He's going to bat Ryan Church second if he's healthy. And best of all, he's open to new ideas and information. Too bad he has no talent to work with in Washington.

 

Just read that article. Manny Acta is awesome.

 

A manager that downplays being "aggressive" , challenges the hackneyed notion of "moving runners along" , reads charts and stuff that have actual stats and evidence.

 

Focusing on defensive positioning and that pesky OBP

 

My kind of manager

 

The part about not bunting probably made Joe Morgan cry

__________________

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Ah, so what would be a good ISO for a 2B or for a #2 hitter?

 

I don't think there's a good rule for ISO in the 2 spot, because it doesn't really give a good profile of the hitter. Ideally, you want a high-OBP guy at the top of the lineup. There's no hard and fast rule other than the fact that you bat your best players at the top where they get the most at bats. Loretta is a number 8 or 9 hitter in a decent lineup.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Manny Acta sounds like he is going to be a great manager. He's not going to bunt or steal jus to be "aggressive." He wants high OBP guys at the top of the order. He's going to bat Ryan Church second if he's healthy. And best of all, he's open to new ideas and information. Too bad he has no talent to work with in Washington.

 

Just read that article. Manny Acta is awesome.

 

A manager that downplays being "aggressive" , challenges the hacknayed notion of "moving runners along" , reads charts and stuff that have actual stats and evidence.

 

Focusing on defensive positioning and that pesky OBP

 

My kind of manager

 

The part about not bunting probably made Joe Morgan cry

__________________

 

I wish he he was managing in the American League. Ozzie Guillen would probably try to punch him out.

[Guest Oedipus Rex]

Hey, I thought Latinos had to be boorish and irrational to manage a baseball team! This rocked my world!

[Styles 0]

The O's continue to eat to their own before the season starts:

 

Notes: Comebacker fells Walker

02/23/2007 2:59 PM ET

By Spencer Fordin / MLB.com

 

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- The serene and carefree atmosphere of Spring Training was shattered in a moment Friday, when Baltimore reliever Jamie Walker was hit in the back of his head by a line drive. Walker left the field under his own power and was taken to Holy Cross Hospital to evaluate his condition.

 

"It was a little scary. It got him in the head," said Baltimore manager Sam Perlozzo. "He seemed to be fine, but they're just doing some precautionary tests."

 

Walker underwent a CAT scan, which revealed a minor concussion. He's listed as day to day.

 

The incident happened during a fairly routine round of live batting practice. Walker was matched up against right fielder Nick Markakis, who had just stepped into the batter's box a pitch or two before. Markakis drilled a line drive back through the box, and Walker turned away from the ball but got hit directly in the back of his head.

 

"I think it was an offspeed pitch," Markakis said. "I saw it going right back up the middle, but everything happened so quick. It shocked me, pretty much. You hate to see something like that happen."

 

Walker never left his feet, but the shot elicited an audible gasp from the fans behind the first-base dugout. The team's trainers converged on the mound to check on Walker, and moments later, they walked him to the clubhouse. Walker had been pitching without a protective screen, which may have stopped the ball short of impact.

 

"It's optional for the pitcher," Perlozzo said. "Some guys don't feel like they can throw the ball properly with the screen in front of them. If they want it in front, they can put it there. If they don't, they can take it away."

 

"It definitely made my heart skip a little bit," added Markakis. "You hate to see something like that happen. Hopefully, he's OK, and we can get him back out there as soon as we can."

 

Walker, who signed a three-year deal for $12 million this winter, is one of the key pieces of Baltimore's rebuilt bullpen. The Orioles will monitor his progress before allowing him to return to full workout duty.

 

"He said he was a tough son of a gun," Perlozzo said. "That's what he said when I got there. I believe him."