This Week In Baseball 8/27-9/2

[Boon]

They've been against good offensive teams, but his last three starts have been terrible. That being said, I'd still probably throw him out there over Kei Igawa. Yanks will just have to hope they can benefit from the altered playoff schedule and trot out Wang/Pettite/Clemens.

[Cheech Tremendous]

As I said earlier, there's a tendency to pretend the most recent performance is the only one that exists. Mussina's been too good a pitcher to fall this quickly.

I believe there's been some work to suggest that a starting pitcher's most recent performances have more predictive value than career norms, at least in the short run. Doesn't mean that Mussina is cooked for good, but it might not be a good idea to keep throwing him out there every five days when he's been getting hit this hard.

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

On another note, we can now say that Baseball Prospectus was wrong when they predicted a 72-90 record for the White Sox. They're worse.

[Cheech Tremendous]

On another note, we can now say that Baseball Prospectus was wrong when they predicted a 72-90 record for the White Sox. They're worse.

 

 

I remember picking them to finish fourth in the preseason predictions thread and getting outrage from a couple of posters. I didn't think they'd be this bad, or even 72-90 bad. That team is just a disaster and the worst part is there's little to no help on the way.

 

Come to think of it, I need to revisit my original predictions to see how I've done. I don't think I missed the boat on anyone, with the possible exception being Seatte.

[mike546]

I didn't see the game, but it looked from the highlights like Detroit had a lot of hits to the shortstop side up the middle. aka where outs go to die with Derek Jeter's range up the middle.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh]

"it's that future predictions are based solely on the most recent performance."

 

Actually Al, if you read my posts, you'd have seen that my predictions for their future were based on the fact that the team, for an entire season, not "recently", has been the best hitting NL club. That is why, combined with "keep them in the game" overachieving by useless slugs Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton, along with new guys Durbin and Kendrick who have been effective, I think they have a chance.

 

The pitching is the key.

 

I'm skipping tonight's game and heading back to the Ballpark tomorrow and for the BPS on Thursday afternoon. Unless the bats are healthy, tonight's probably a big loss begind Eaton. With the way the rotation got worked out for this series I'm glad Eaton's pitching the game I'm missing, as Moyer, who has nothing left at this point, is somehow at least decent every other start. Eaton just needs to retire, and drop Mesa off a cliff on the way.

 

I pray the Diamondbacks get some hits tonight. Aside from Eric Byrnes having a great game, they were asleep last night due to Peavy pitching a gem. Go Snakes!

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

Kendrick and Durbin are the ones who are overachieving. Kendrick has 31 Ks in 88 IP, and his 11 HRs suggest he's not an extremely successful groundball pitcher. Durbin has 31 Ks and 27 BBs. Those peripherals do not point to sustainable success. To illustrate the point, here are the last ten pitchers to post a K rate as low as Kendrick's in as many innings.

 

STRIKEOUTS/9 IP <= 3.3

INNINGS PITCHED               YEAR     IP     SO/9 IP   
1    Chien-Ming Wang          2006    218       3.14   
2    Nate Cornejo             2003    194.2     2.13   
3    Kirk Rueter              2004    190.1     2.65   
4    Danny Graves             2003    169       3.20   
5    Kirk Saarloos            2005    159.2     2.99   
6    Jimmy Gobble             2004    148       2.98   
7    Kirk Rueter              2003    147       2.51   
8    Jimmy Anderson           2002    140.2     3.01   
9   Aaron Cook               2003    124       3.12   
10   Kirk Rueter              2005    107.1     2.10

 

There's a group that had a lot of future success, no? The only good pitchers in the group are Wang and Cook, and both were extreme groundballers. And the next list, guys in the last seven years with a strikeout/walk ratio as bad or worse than J.D. Durbin, over a full season.

 

SEASON
2000-2006

STRIKEOUTS/WALKS <= 1.14

INNINGS PITCHED               YEAR     IP      SO/BB   
1    Jimmy Anderson           2001    206.1     1.07   
2    Shawn Estes              2004    202       1.11   
3    Jimmy Haynes             2000    199.1     0.88   
4    Miguel Batista           2004    198.2     1.08   
5    Nate Cornejo             2003    194.2     0.79   
6    Kirk Rueter              2004    190.1     0.85   
7    Mike Hampton             2002    178.2     0.81   
8    Kazuhisa Ishii           2004    172       1.01   
9    Damian Moss              2003    165.2     0.86   
T10  Jamey Wright             2000    164.2     1.09   
T10  Steve Trachsel           2006    164.2     1.01

 

Do the Phillies have a chance? Absolutely. I very much think they can make the wild card. But the idea of making up six games on a team that's been demonstratively better over the last two seasons is unlikely. I do think Eaton will pitch better from here on out. I don't think an MLB caliber pitcher tosses an ERA that high unless he's hurt.

[mike546]

Chris Britton has finally been called up. All it took was 6.1 IP, 15 ER, 15 Hits, and 8 walks on the road trip from Sean Henn to finally let that happen.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh]

Stats mean jack shit, especially when you're calling out Kendrick for throwing longballs in Citizens Bank Park, the mecca of homerun balls. The Phillies are not a conventional pitching team, as they are the definition of "keep them in the game" pitching due to the offense being able to back up the pitching. Other than Hamels, there isn't one traditional "good pitcher" on the team, bullpen included. Myers is okay.

 

Speaking of silly stats, I love how Phillies.com claims Adam Eaton is a "Met Killer" for being 5-0 against them...despite tonight's pitcher Tom Glavine having beaten the Phillies *28* times.

[mike546]

Stats mean jack shit, especially when you're calling out Kendrick for throwing longballs in Citizens Bank Park, the mecca of homerun balls. The Phillies are not a conventional pitching team, as they are the definition of "keep them in the game" pitching due to the offense being able to back up the pitching. Other than Hamels, there isn't one traditional "good pitcher" on the team, bullpen included. Myers is okay.

 

Speaking of silly stats, I love how Phillies.com claims Adam Eaton is a "Met Killer" for being 5-0 against them...despite tonight's pitcher Tom Glavine having beaten the Phillies *28* times.

 

 

Coming from a Yankee fan, that strategy is NOT going to help you come playoff time.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh]

Totally agree, pitching wins games, as I said a few posts up, but you play the hand you're dealt, I guess.

[Guest Soriano's Torn Quad]

On another note, we can now say that Baseball Prospectus was wrong when they predicted a 72-90 record for the White Sox. They're worse.

 

 

I remember picking them to finish fourth in the preseason predictions thread and getting outrage from a couple of posters. I didn't think they'd be this bad, or even 72-90 bad. That team is just a disaster and the worst part is there's little to no help on the way.

I'll admit it. I saw this team finishing in second place. I had no idea that Jose Contreras would get so old, so fast. I didn't think the outfield would comprise Andy Gonzalez (who?) and Rob Mackowiak for much of the season, and I didn't think that Thornton, MacDougal, and the rest of the bullpen would be so shitty. They just got old and bad, and it surprised me to see it get this bad. That said, it doesn't look like Kenny Williams is making a lot of smart moves for the future. Extending Buerhle won't ruin them since he's a finesse guy, but four years is a long time for Reinsdorf to give a pitcher. Jermaine Dye is injury-prone and aging. They're stuck with another year of Contreras. The farm system doesn't have much to offer. Brian Anderson was a bust. And just for the record, this team will end up costing around $100 million. How much more money is Reinsdorf willing and able to put into the team year-in, year-out? As we all know, White Sox fans don't support their team when the team is bad. They don't even show up when the team is above-average. The well is gonna dry up, and he's not going to have the wherewithal to spend this much in coming years. Not that this should matter, since Williams assembled a championship team on middle-tier salary (they ranked 13th, maybe? this is offhand, I have an Excel document elsewhere), but they'll need to do it with big trades and scrap-heap signings.

[Smartly Pretty]

Brian Lawrence optioned to AAA, Endy Chavez activated, if anyone cares.

[Cheech Tremendous]

The White Sox caught a perfect storm of regression to the mean this year. In 2005 their pitchers greatly outperformed their true talent level. I remember Baseball Prospectus even invented a new stat to measure "Luck" because of the persistent way the team overachieved.

 

In 2006, the pitching came back to earth, but they upgraded their hitting and got career years from several unlikely suspects. Between the two year's performances, it was hard to see the underlying issues that affected this team. Now this year the pitching and hitting are back to expected levels, complete with regression attributable to their advancing age as a team.

 

The biggest problem in their way for the future is Kenny Williams as GM. He's been notoriously bad in the past and his moves this year are suspect. Unfortunately he's treating this season as a fluke rather than recognizing that it was the previous two years that were flukes. Trading Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, and either Thome or Konerko could have given them strong pieces to rebuild with. Now their stuck for the most part with the team they have. The minor league system is empty and they are not a desirable place for high priced free agents. I'm sorry, but signing Aaron Rowand and hoping the nostalgic fever of 2005 carries them through the end of the decade is not a rationale plan.

[Guest Soriano's Torn Quad]

Jerry is committed to Kenny Williams. He won't get fired. In fact, this will be only his first losing season as GM of the White Sox, in spite of the deafening dissatisfaction with his work before and after 2005. Of course, prior to 2005, the AL Central was bad, and they had Frank Thomas, so finishing around 85ish wins for a few years really must've hidden a multitude of sins.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh]

Mets 2, Phillies 0 - Top 5.

 

Phils have had very few chances, but should have scored a run, Glavine just gives a little and as usual, holds strong and allows very little against the Phillies. Delgado hit a 2-run bomb, that's the differenc.e

 

Jayson Werth's 9-9 streak came to an end on a Glavine strikeout. It was a very questionable, but not outrageous, call.

 

Double play ball kills Phillies in the 4th. Howard misses a homer by about 8 vertical feet, settles for a giant single.

[Vern Gagne]

Nice play by Nick Punto.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh]

Glavine pitching a gem...

 

Top 8 - Mets 2 Phils 0.

[mike546]

The Joba Rules are going to screw the Yanks in the 7th, I'm calling it. Pettite is staying in, hes going to get into trouble, and because Joba can only start an inning, Farnsworth is going to come in and blow it.

 

edit: Or Pettite can blow it himself.

[Precious Roy]

Nice jinx Mike

[UseTheSledgehammerUh]

Phillies get outta a jam for the umpteenth time and bring top o' the order up for bottom of the 8th. Do or die time.

[mike546]

Joba vs Manny and Ortiz in the 8th. Should be fun.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh]

Wow. The second run for the Phillies comes on a 12 foot in-field single that hugged the line and just wouldn't go foul.

 

Tie game into the 9th. Coste swings at the first pitch for Phils w/ bases loaded in 8th right back to the pitcher, sigh.

[CanadianChris]

Joba vs Manny and Ortiz in the 8th. Should be fun.

Manny's out of the game. Looks like he strained a leg muscle in the 6th.

[mike546]

I know why Sox fans hate Drew so much. He looked scared shitless up there.

[CanadianChris]

Joba brings the intensity. I haven't seen a pitcher that fired up over a strikeout since Dennis Eckersley in the '92 playoffs.

[mike546]

Joba brings the intensity. I haven't seen a pitcher that fired up over a strikeout since Dennis Eckersley in the '92 playoffs.

 

Have you ever seen K-Rod after a save? He full out orgasms.

[CanadianChris]

Joba brings the intensity. I haven't seen a pitcher that fired up over a strikeout since Dennis Eckersley in the '92 playoffs.

 

Have you ever seen K-Rod after a save? He full out orgasms.

I hardly ever watch the Angels, so no.

[Brett Favre]

K-Rod is like that guy that found out he wasn't the dad.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh]

PHILLIES WIN WALKOFF RYAN HOWARD M'FN MVP WINS IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

NOT DEAD YET