This Week In Baseball 9/16-9/23

[geniusMoment 0]

Adam Dunn's awful. Why is he still with the Reds?

I realize what you're saying in that Adam Dunn doesn't deserve some of the shit he takes, but the problem most Reds fans have is you're paying 25 million a year combined between Dunn and Griffey (who you're stuck with). They are a team with a mid-60 million payroll, with little to no pitching after Harang and Arroyo. When you have that much of your payroll tied up in two position players it makes developing pitching a premium, something the Reds haven't done since Mario Soto. It's not that people think Dunn sucks, it's that so much is tied up in Griffey and Dunn. I would love to unload Griffey, and have my outfield next year be Dunn, Hamilton and Jay Bruce, but I doubt anyone wants Griffey. Now, this offseason there is no starting pitching available, therefore you're better off just picking up the option and keeping Dunn, and after 2008 Griffey's deal is up so keeping Dunn long-term is a possibility. But, there isn't any strong dislike of Dunn in the Cincy area, there are the usual sportstalk radio show callers who are morons, but there are those in every city. But, if I could get a strong number 2 starter for Dunn for the next 7 years, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

[Guest Gym Class Fallout]

I'm sure everyone knows, but I have never been an Adam Dunn fan. I don't care that he hit 40 homers four years in a row.

too many strikeouts

[Smartly Pretty 0]

What's his average? It's reasonable to dislike a .250 hitter with 100k's and 40 homers, but a .270 hitter with 100k's and 40 homers is a little harder to knock. That sounds weird now that I say it, but it sounds about right. .20 points is a lot.

[geniusMoment 0]

His OBP is very high, he walks 100 times virtually every year, batting average is about .267, but many would argue that's an outdated stat.

[snuffbox 0]

Another Milwaukee bullpen collapse.

[Guest Gym Class Fallout]

He's .266 for the year with a .387 on base. The manner of outs doesn't matter.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What's his average? It's reasonable to dislike a .250 hitter with 100k's and 40 homers, but a .270 hitter with 100k's and 40 homers is a little harder to knock. That sounds weird now that I say it, but it sounds about right. .20 points is a lot.

.249 career. It depends on the walks however. Dunn's career OBP is .381, a very good mark. Compare that to say Dave Kingman, who hit .236 with a .302 OBP in his career. If a guy walks 100+ times a season, he can get away with a low average.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Did someone just say BATTING AVERAGE is an outdated stat? Shut the fuck up.

 

And Czech, manner of outs matters. Not putting the ball in play is significantly worse than putting the ball in play. No chance of an error, you can't advance a runner. Striking out is bad.

 

EDIT: I realize .381 is a high OBP, and yes, that's very good, but if his batting average .275 instead of .250 career, imagine how much higher still his OBP would be.

[geniusMoment 0]

Thanks for the well reasoned response.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Name one player of the course of baseballs storied history that has a high batting average and was a bad hitter.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Did someone just say BATTING AVERAGE is an outdated stat? Shut the fuck up.

 

And Czech, manner of outs matters. Not putting the ball in play is significantly worse than putting the ball in play. No chance of an error, you can't advance a runner. Striking out is bad.

 

EDIT: I realize .381 is a high OBP, and yes, that's very good, but if his batting average .275 instead of .250 career, imagine how much higher still his OBP would be.

You could ground into a double play.

 

And if Derek Jeter could hit 40 home runs a year instead of 20, imagine how high his slugging percentage would be.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Name one player of the course of baseballs storied history that has a high batting average and was a bad hitter.

How high?

 

[Guest Gym Class Fallout]

Did someone just say BATTING AVERAGE is an outdated stat? Shut the fuck up.

 

And Czech, manner of outs matters. Not putting the ball in play is significantly worse than putting the ball in play. No chance of an error, you can't advance a runner. Striking out is bad.

Batting average doesn't give you the whole picture.

 

Putting the ball in play runs the risk of a double play, though. Striking out is bad, grounding into a twin killing is worse, but at the end of the day, 1 = 1.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

If you ground into a double play there's a chance for an error. At least you're making the team field, you're not giving the outs away, you're making them earn both of those outs (not that a pitcher doesn't earn strikeouts).

 

.300, by the way.

[devo 0]

I realize .381 is a high OBP, and yes, that's very good, but if his batting average .275 instead of .250 career, imagine how much higher still his OBP would be.

 

2007 BA and OBP: .266 and .384

2003 BA and OBP: .249 and .400

 

Yeah.

[strummer 0]

Czech where is this supposed Cardinal Magic?

 

 

[Guest Gym Class Fallout]

If you ground into a double play there's a chance for an error. At least you're making the team field, you're not giving the outs away, you're making them earn both of those outs (not that a pitcher doesn't earn strikeouts).

 

.300, by the way.

Strikeouts aren't giveaways. What would you take: a one-pitch groundout that "requires fielding," or a nine-pitch strikeout?

[Guest Gym Class Fallout]

Czech where is this supposed Cardinal Magic?

If you're serious, Brendan Ryan, Ryan Ludwick, and Braden Looper.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

If you ground into a double play there's a chance for an error. At least you're making the team field, you're not giving the outs away, you're making them earn both of those outs (not that a pitcher doesn't earn strikeouts).

 

.300, by the way.

Juan Pierre.

 

If a batter strikes out, there's still a chance for an error as the catcher has to catch the third strike. You can reach first on a strikeout and error. OBP is the only thing that matters. The manner of the out is meaningless. Don't believe me? Take a stat page from any league and run a correlation study between runs scored and strikeouts. Then do the same for runs and OBP.

[strummer 0]

PujolJunkie:

 

BA (Batting Average)

Hits divided by at-bats; also, perhaps the stat that makes Ken Tremendous' blood curdle the quickest. Okay, maybe that's wins. Batting average is the backbone of traditional hitting metrics, and amazingly, is still looked upon as a good way to determine whether someone is good at hitting baseballs. It is not a good way to determine this. Why? Well, you already know why. You know it intuitively, and you always have. Because a guy who hits .250 but clubs 40 HR and 40 doubles and walks 100 times a year is way way way more valuable to his team than a guy who hits .310 with 2 HR and 19 doubles and 15 walks. That’s kind of obvious, isn’t it? I agree. So why should we keep talking about batting average, ever? We shouldn’t? Okay, we won’t. But Tim McCarver will, and that’s why he should be selling cookware door-to-door instead of talking to the country about baseball every Saturday.

 

In 2005, the MLB leader for BA was Derrek Lee, at .335 (Placido Polanco was 2nd). The median BA for players eligible for the batting title was about .280 last year, or what Raul Ibanez and Mark Kotsay were able to produce. (Incidentally, this sort of helps confirm my belief that Mark Kotsay is the perfect “average” player. Maybe it’s his name.) Nick Swisher and Mike Lowell tied for last among eligible batters at .236. Because their batting averages were so low, both of these players were unable to recover, and never had a productive season in the Major Leagues again.

[Bored 0]

Name one player of the course of baseballs storied history that has a high batting average and was a bad hitter.

Juan Pierre, career .301 hitter. Next.

 

Edit: Bah, Google Boy beat me to it.

 

And no one show PujolJunkie Jack Cust's stats this year, he might faint.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Dropped Third Strikes are way way way less common than any other variety of error. I also wouldn't call Juan Pierre a bad hitter. He's actually a pretty good leadoff hitter.

 

Czech: Typically these 100k guys aren't going down in 9 pitches each time. Guys like Richie Sexon and Adam Dunn swing wildly when they strikout and are done in three or four pitches.

 

Also, for the record, I'm ok with using OBP as a stat for evaluating players. It's a perfectly reasonable stat. Calling batting average outdated though I find absurd.

[Guest]

Juan Pierre is the worst fucking "ballplayer" player making an exorbitant amount of money I have ever watched on a nightly basis in my entire life.

[Guest Smues]

Dropped Third Strikes are way way way less common than any other variety of error. I also wouldn't call Juan Pierre a bad hitter. He's actually a pretty good leadoff hitter.

 

Czech: Typically these 100k guys aren't going down in 9 pitches each time. Guys like Richie Sexon and Adam Dunn swing wildly when they strikout and are done in three or four pitches.

 

Pretty good LEADOFF hitter? Key-ricst.

 

Yeah I want my leadoff guy to OBP about .330 the last 3 seasons. Because I certainly don't expect my leadoff man to get on base or anything.

[geniusMoment 0]

Dropped Third Strikes are way way way less common than any other variety of error. I also wouldn't call Juan Pierre a bad hitter. He's actually a pretty good leadoff hitter.

 

Czech: Typically these 100k guys aren't going down in 9 pitches each time. Guys like Richie Sexon and Adam Dunn swing wildly when they strikout and are done in three or four pitches.

 

 

Actually, Adam Dunn goes deep into at bats due to his eye. He will see more pitches in an at bat than anyone on the Reds except Scott Hatteberg (who if you have read moneyball you know about).

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Dropped Third Strikes are way way way less common than any other variety of error. I also wouldn't call Juan Pierre a bad hitter. He's actually a pretty good leadoff hitter.

 

Czech: Typically these 100k guys aren't going down in 9 pitches each time. Guys like Richie Sexon and Adam Dunn swing wildly when they strikout and are done in three or four pitches.

Adam Dunn has struck out 1,089 times coming into tonight. 181 times (16.6%), it was on an 0-2 count. 300 times (27.5%) it was 1-2. That's assuming they don't hit a foul ball with two strikes.

 

Besides that though, we have a concrete measure. Adam Dunn ranks fourth in the NL in pitches per plate appearance.

 

Juan Pierre is not a good leadoff hitter. He led the National League in outs last season and is second this season.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Juan Pierre is probably the worst leadoff hitter in all of MLB. You're insane.

 

By the way, have you heard of three true outcomes. A baseball player has control over three things: homeruns, walks and strikeouts. Everything else is completely in the hands of the defense, park effects, and a bunch of other stuff that has nothing to do with the batter at all. That's why we have a thing called BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). Over a large enough sample, all players will have about a .300 average on balls that are put into play. There's no skill there. That's why batting averages are all over the map from year to year and OBP stays relatively consistent.

 

The goal of baseball is to score more runs than the other team before you use up your 27 outs. The goal of a hitter is to not get out. The goal is not getting a hit.

 

You are embarrassing yourself. Please stop while you are so far behind and pick up Baseball Between the Numbers, or Moneyball, or the Book, or the Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract. There's a lot of good stuff there.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

It's getting late for myself, but sometime in the near future I'll tackle this in a little detail. It's fairly common and I think it could provide for a good educational experience. I don't want to see a poster piled on unnecessarily.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

Brett Myers you suck, pal!

 

In reality, the Phillies bats did. I can't wait for Brett to go back to the rotation next year.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Pitchers per plate appearance aside (I concede Adam Dunn sees more pitches than I thought) I'd much rather him put the ball in play if I'm a Reds fan. If there's a runner on third base with less than two outs, I really don't want a high-strikeout guy at the plate.

 

 

By the way, have you heard of three true outcomes. A baseball player has control over three things: homeruns, walks and strikeouts. Everything else is completely in the hands of the defense, park effects, and a bunch of other stuff that has nothing to do with the batter at all. That's why we have a thing called BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). Over a large enough sample, all players will have about a .300 average on balls that are put into play. There's no skill there. That's why batting averages are all over the map from year to year and OBP stays relatively consistent.

 

Are you sure you're...explaining that right? Are you telling me that a regular base hit has more to do with park effects than a Home Run? And if all players hit .300 over balls put in play then doesn't that reinforce the point that putting balls in player is better than striking out?