MLB Off-season Thread

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

I thought batting order had a negligible effect. Leyland can draw the day's order out of a hat and be in good shape. Well, not good shape physically, because there's a good chance that at least one of his lungs is completely composed of tar, but his team will win many games.

 

Some people have said that. I don't think it makes much sense but they used math to prove it, I think, which is worth more than my sense.

 

That being said, I don't see why you shouldn't at least try to maximize runs. It's the Pascal's Wager of baseball: if it doesn't matter how you draw up your lineup, then there is no harm in drawing it up in the way that seems like it would maximize runs - put your top two OBP guys first and second, and then go down from OPS with #3 on. But if it does turn out that lineup can affect runs production, then you're in good shape.

 

No-lose situation doing it my way.

Well, personally I would be in favor of the best OBP guys at the top, but with a lineup such as this, you can really mix and match according to streaks and slumps and lose very little, so I don't see the point of splitting hairs over the issue right now. Detroit's hitting can be phenomenal this year.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

I thought batting order had a negligible effect. Leyland can draw the day's order out of a hat and be in good shape. Well, not good shape physically, because there's a good chance that at least one of his lungs is completely composed of tar, but his team will win many games.

 

Some people have said that. I don't think it makes much sense but they used math to prove it, I think, which is worth more than my sense.

 

That being said, I don't see why you shouldn't at least try to maximize runs. It's the Pascal's Wager of baseball: if it doesn't matter how you draw up your lineup, then there is no harm in drawing it up in the way that seems like it would maximize runs - put your top two OBP guys first and second, and then go down from OPS with #3 on. But if it does turn out that lineup can affect runs production, then you're in good shape.

 

No-lose situation doing it my way.

Well, personally I would be in favor of the best OBP guys at the top, but with a lineup such as this, you can really mix and match according to streaks and slumps and lose very little, so I don't see the point of splitting hairs over the issue right now. Detroit's hitting can be phenomenal this year.

 

I agree about their potential for awesomeness.

 

I don't think it's necessarily splitting hairs to want to put a guy who gets on base 49% of the time at the top of the lineup instead of the bottom, but alas. There's not really any good reason to give that guy one fewer at-bat per game than you could give him. Seems that that would hurt your team.

 

Of course, nothing we say here matters. Jim Leyland will do whatever.

[Brett Favre 0]

Quote from Baseball Prospectus:

 

Converts the player's batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody. The major characteristics of the translation are: 1) that the translated EQA should equal the original, all-time adjusted EQA (within some margin for error); 2) that all seasons are expanded to a 162 game schedule; 3) that the statistics are adjusted to a season where an average hitter would have, per 650 PA: 589 AB, 153 H, 31 DB, 3 TP, 19 HR, 56 BB, 5 HBP, 113 SO, 10 SB, 5 CS, 79 R and 75 RBI. His rates would be a .260 batting average, .330 onbase average, .420 slugging average, and a .260 EQA with 76 EQR.

 

Hopefully you see why this is more useful when comparing players as opposed to using the original statistics (or worse).

 

Oh hell no.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Quote from Baseball Prospectus:

 

Converts the player's batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody. The major characteristics of the translation are: 1) that the translated EQA should equal the original, all-time adjusted EQA (within some margin for error); 2) that all seasons are expanded to a 162 game schedule; 3) that the statistics are adjusted to a season where an average hitter would have, per 650 PA: 589 AB, 153 H, 31 DB, 3 TP, 19 HR, 56 BB, 5 HBP, 113 SO, 10 SB, 5 CS, 79 R and 75 RBI. His rates would be a .260 batting average, .330 onbase average, .420 slugging average, and a .260 EQA with 76 EQR.

 

Hopefully you see why this is more useful when comparing players as opposed to using the original statistics (or worse).

 

Oh hell no.

 

You don't like numbers?

[Brett Favre 0]

I don't like unnecessary numbers.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

I don't like unnecessary numbers.

 

They're not unnecessary. They help humans better evaluate other humans who play baseball. It helps people not make mistakes by over-valuing bizarro world performances.

 

Kaz Matsui 2007 regular stats: .288/.342/.405

Kaz Matsui 2007 translated stats: .278/.335/.397

 

Factors Coors Field bullshit out. Teams that don't care for "unnecessary" things like translated stats give Matsui a big contract because he "found his rhythm" in Colorado. Teams like the Astros, with their retard GM Ed Wade.

 

Nick Swisher 2007 regular stats: .262/.381/.455

Nick Swisher 2007 translated stats: .272/.401/.510

 

Teams that don't care for "unnecessary" things like translated stats think Nick Swisher is decent instead of awesome at baseball, because he hits in a home park at McAfee that has something like 15 acres (this is an estimation) of foul territory and is generally enormous. You could see the same thing with Padres hitters.

[devo 0]

Padres close to signing Peavy to a three-year, fifty-two million dollar extension with an apparent twenty-two million dollar team option for a fourth year.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/base...y.ap/index.html

 

Not a bad deal at all.

[Brett Favre 0]

I don't like unnecessary numbers.

 

They're not unnecessary. They help humans better evaluate other humans who play baseball. It helps people not make mistakes by over-valuing bizarro world performances.

 

Teams that don't care for "unnecessary" things like translated stats think Nick Swisher is decent instead of awesome at baseball, because he hits in a home park at McAfee that has something like 15 acres (this is an estimation) of foul territory and is generally enormous. You could see the same thing with Padres hitters.

 

You don't need some super ultra formula. You can just check his road splits.

 

You make cheech look like Joe Morgan.

 

^ That's a really good deal for SD.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

I don't like unnecessary numbers.

 

They're not unnecessary. They help humans better evaluate other humans who play baseball. It helps people not make mistakes by over-valuing bizarro world performances.

 

Teams that don't care for "unnecessary" things like translated stats think Nick Swisher is decent instead of awesome at baseball, because he hits in a home park at McAfee that has something like 15 acres (this is an estimation) of foul territory and is generally enormous. You could see the same thing with Padres hitters.

 

You don't need some super ultra formula. You can just check his road splits.

 

You make cheech look like Joe Morgan.

 

^ That's a really good deal for SD.

 

Swisher home: .252/.388/.432

Swisher away: .270/.376/.474

 

His away stats still do not reflect his actual performance across the season. That's because the Athletics also play in a division where they have to hit in Safeco (#22 in MLB for Park Factor re: hits). Man, it's hard to hit there!

 

Fortunately, they play other away games in Arlington (#14) and Los Angeles of Anaheim (#6).

 

Strangely, because they are members of the American League, they also have to play in far away places like Toronto (#28) and Boston (#1). Sometimes they even play in Minneapolis (#23) or Baltimore (#4).

 

Do I need to keep going? Home/away splits do not work the way you are suggesting. They can show you that a home park is particularly easy or hard to hit in, but away stats do not necessarily reflect how you would otherwise hit generally.

 

Don't be scared of translated stats. Baseball Prospectus does all the calculating for you. You don't even have to look at a formula.

[Brett Favre 0]

Road Splits = Looking at how he does at other parks.

 

Not just Home/Away.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Road Splits = Looking at how he does at other parks.

 

Not just Home/Away.

 

Nick Swisher at Fenway in 2007: .111/.100/.222 in 9 AB.

Nick Swisher at Tropicana in 2007: .424/.412/.727 in 33 AB.

 

Fenway Park, #1 in MLB for Park Factor re: hits in 2007.

Tropicana Field, #24 in MLB for Park Factor re: hits in 2007.

 

You have to take everything together and normalize it. That's what translated statistics are for.

 

We done yet?

[Brett Favre 0]

Sometimes hitters don't just hit well in certain parks. For his career he's been a terrible hitter at Fenway compared to Tropicana field. Now, if you sign him being Boston thinking he's going to be nasty because he's in a hitter's ballpark, that's not going to be the case. Which is why you may need to look at his specific road splits.

 

But looking at it more closely-er Fenway does have better pitchers than Tampa. You don't really NEED translated for real realz percentages.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Sometimes hitters don't just hit well in certain parks. For his career he's been a terrible hitter at Fenway compared to Tropicana field. Now, if you sign him being Boston thinking he's going to be nasty because he's in a hitter's ballpark, that's not going to be the case. Which is why you may need to look at his specific road splits.

 

But looking at it more closely-er Fenway does have better pitchers than Tampa. You don't really NEED translated for real realz percentages.

 

I guess you don't need any sort of baseball statistics. You could just base everything off of anecdotes or memory. The point is (only) that translated statistics are a better way of measuring human performance in the game of baseball than regular statistics, because they factor out certain bullshit anomalies that can lead to over- or underrating players.

 

That's all.

 

[Brett Favre 0]

Yes, just like I said, I'll use my anecdotes and memories to measure the humanity of baseball.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Yes, just like I said, I'll use my anecdotes and memories to measure the humanity of baseball.

 

That's stupid.

 

You should use the Equivalent Humanity Index (EHi). Baseball gets a 1.9, which is really high considering football is like 0.9, basketball gets 0.7, and ice hockey is -0.3.

 

It's just better.

[Brett Favre 0]

I was playing about the anecdotes stuff.

 

Anyway, Santana is a Red Sox. The centerfielder is Coco Crisp, and they added Ryan Kalish. So it's a 5-1. It sucks that I'm going to have to root against Santana now.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

I was playing about the anecdotes stuff.

 

Anyway, Santana is a Red Sox. The centerfielder is Coco Crisp, and they added Ryan Kalish. So it's a 5-1. It sucks that I'm going to have to root against Santana now.

 

I know. I was playing about an Equivalent Humanity Index.

 

On the plus side for the Twins, this means they won't have to play Jason Tyner in center field.

[KingPK 0]

Where is this news about the Santana deal being official coming from?

 

EDIT: Aha!

 

Guess all that's left is i dotting and t crossing.

Edited December 5, 2007 by KingPK

[Brett Favre 0]

I might have jumped the gun but this site has this:

 

http://mvn.com/mlb-redsox/2007/12/04/frame...tana-a-red-sox/

[Smartly Pretty 0]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?...winter_meetings

 

Mets offered Heilman, Gomez and Humber for Bedard.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Where is this 49% figure of OBP for Placido Polanco coming from?

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Where is this 49% figure of OBP for Placido Polanco coming from?

 

I screwed up. He slugged .490. His OBP was only .400. So 40%, not 49%.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/polanpl01.php

 

Translated batting statistics, 2007.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Miguel Cabrera trade is another good one. Andrew Miller/Dontrelle Willis is a point in the Marlins' favor, good chance for the fish to come out ahead. Maybin could be a superstar and the Marlins need a center fielder. And there are four extra prospects in the deal.

 

Again I say, I love this offseason.

[treble 0]

I guess the Jays are willing to trade Rios, if the rumours of him going to the Giants for either Cain or Lincecum are true. The Jays want Cain straight up, but the Giants would prefer to give up Lincecum, and the Jays will only do that if SF takes on Glaus and his contract, too.

 

I'd say the Jays should just throw their hat into the Santana sweepstakes if they're going to trade Rios, who's better than any OF the Yankees or Boston would give up, but there's no way they could re-sign him.

[Red Baron 0]

The Jays should do some three way trade, that'll get Santana for Rios and have the Yanks or Sox give something up good for Santana.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

I almost feel bad for Kenny Williams. He got pantsed on the Hunter signing, and now not only did he fail to get Cabrera as was heavily speculated, Cabrera + Willis are on a divisional rival. Now he's struggling to unload Joe Crede. Good thing he's an arrogant douchebag from a notoriously unprofessional organization or I'd have some sympathy.

[UZI Suicide 0]

Why is Ned Colletti seemingly the only GM in baseball who doesn't want Matt Kemp?

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Rumors are that highly touted Japanese player Fukudome may end up either a Cub or Padre.

[Brett Favre 0]

The Yankees could've had Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Marquez, and Mitch Hilligoss. Brian Cashman, however, never wanted to sacrifice Hughes for Santana and convinced his bosses that the Yankees couldn't afford him now that Andy Pettitte is in the fold. This near-trade won't be forgotten by Yankees fans, unless Hughes takes off in '08.

 

I guess it's up to the Red Sox. If they don't trade him there and the Red Sox aren't changing their offer, then he'll probably stay (unless LAA jumps in).

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Since I have a bit of time.

 

For the Tigers: Miguel Cabrera makes that club an absolutely devastating offensive force. They've already replaced Sean Casey with Edgar Renteria and Craig Monroe with well, anything else. To think they already finished second in runs last year, in a pitchers' park. Dontrelle Willis struggled last year of course. I think a lot of that may have to do with Marlins' awful defense. Scott Olsen also tanked last year. Put Edgar Renteria at short and Jacque Jones in left instead, and quite a few more hits turn into outs.

 

Indians vs. Tigers, I think that one is too close to call just yet.

 

For the Marlins: They finally have a center field prospect who should earn the starting job by 2009. He was rushed to the Majors as a September callup when he clearly was not ready. Andrew Miller is a top pitching prospect, nearly as good right now as Dontrelle Willis. Mike Rabelo is a serviceable backup, no more. Eulogio de la Cruz has a great arm but has control issues, your classic high 90s thrower. Dallas Trahern might be a groundballer but I don't see much of a future there. Ditto Burke Badenhop, who wasn't overpowering even as a 24 year old in a high A pitchers' league.

 

I can't see the Marlins not losing less than 90 games again.