Spring Training 2008

[geniusMoment 0]

Paul Daugherty is a general douchebag. He wanted the Reds to trade Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto for Joe Blanton. When everyone railed against it he said that's what prospects are for, to be traded for pieces that give you a chance at winning. Using Blantons win and loss record as a barometer for success is the same thing that caused the Reds to give Eric Milton a 3 year 27 million dollar deal three years ago. Someone mentioned that to him but he just blew them off. He does have a Hall of Fame vote.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Ok, this has to stop. Dusty Baker and Joe Morgan know more about baseball than we do, guys.

Writers like Paul Daugherty though?

 

Dusty Baker gets criticism not only because he disagrees with the general stat community, but because his theories generally collide with what other managers are doing in this era. Washington's Manny Acta and Kansas City's Trey Hillman have recently espoused the merits of OBP in interviews. As far as Joe Morgan, he says some silly things because he gets information second hand. He never managed and as a player, he did as much to contribute to winning teams as any player in history.

 

I would point out that most of the criticism of Adam Dunn comes from sportswriters and a certain tenured radio broadcaster. The front office themselves have never seen fit to trade Dunn. Watching what Baker actually does in Cincinnati will be very interesting.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Here's a fascinating article on Brian Bannister and his embracing sabremetric thinking: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Alu7...o&type=lgns

 

- Still, Bannister’s interest prompted Mike Fast to run a detailed series of analyses on Bannister with Pitch f/x, the two-camera system that tracks a ball from the pitcher’s hand to the catcher’s glove and details its speed to the tenth of a mile per hour and movement to the inch.

 

- “I find Pitch f/x to be more useful than video,” Bannister said, “because you’re actually seeing what the pitches are doing late in the zone, and that’s what it’s all about. Everybody can throw a fastball, but if one guy’s explodes in the last 10 feet and the other’s goes dead straight, there’s a huge difference, even if they’re both throwing 95 mph. That’s where the magic lies: in tweaking your pitches in order to get the most out of your ability.”

 

- He’s got all kinds of theories. Bannister would like to sit down with James, who lives about 30 miles down the road in Lawrence, Kan., or with McCracken, and ask them whether curveball pitchers tend to have lower BABIPs. He looks at the league leaders every year – Orlando Hernandez and Chris Young and A.J. Burnett and Barry Zito last year, Young and Josh Beckett and Pedro Martinez and Matt Cain the year before – and sees a wicked hook as the common thread.

 

- For Bannister, that just doesn’t suffice. He wants to see which of his pitches get hit for home runs – the count, the situation, the speed, the break. He wants to know that in 0-2 counts, hitters are 3 for 53 against him in his major-league career, and, accordingly, he wants to figure out what pitches best get him to that count. He wants to increase his strikeout rate from 4.2 per nine innings – the sixth-lowest in the major leagues last year – to at least 5.5 and learn to do so with the same pitches he currently employs.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Yankee catching prospect Francisco Cervelli injured his hand this weekend in a collision at home plate in the 9th inning. Joe Girardi's not a happy dude. I saw the replay today, and it didn't seem all that out of context, it was a routine (if there is such a thing) home plate collision scenario. The guy threw the shoulder, but Cervelli held on to the ball and the dude was out. I guess Girardi's beef is that it was too much of a hit for a ST game.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Yankee catching prospect Francisco Cervelli injured his hand this weekend in a collision at home plate in the 9th inning. Joe Girardi's not a happy dude. I saw the replay today, and it didn't seem all that out of context, it was a routine (if there is such a thing) home plate collision scenario. The guy threw the shoulder, but Cervelli held on to the ball and the dude was out. I guess Girardi's beef is that it was too much of a hit for a ST game.

Girardi's beef is that his player got hurt, otherwise there would be no issue. Shame to see any player get hurt, and Cervelli's already had trouble staying healthy.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Does Cervelli fit into the grand scheme of things? I know there already is another wonder-kid catcher, 18 year old Jesus Montero, in the system somewhere. Of course I could just ask at NYYFans, but I'd rather not wade through a 20 page thread of overanalysis from a bunch of rose-colored glasses wearing Kei Igawa apologists.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Does Cervelli fit into the grand scheme of things? I know there already is another wonder-kid catcher, 18 year old Jesus Montero, in the system somewhere. Of course I could just ask at NYYFans, but I'd rather not wade through a 20 page thread of overanalysis from a bunch of rose-colored glasses wearing Kei Igawa apologists.

 

Jesus Montero is a nice power-hitting prospect but I don't think that there's any chance he sticks at catcher. He'll be a 1B or DH as he moves through the system.

 

Don't know much about Cervelli. I doubt the next Yankees catcher comes through their system.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

I've heard Montero is a house at about 6'4 and 230 or so.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I've heard Montero is a house at about 6'4 and 230 or so.

 

 

He's a legit 80 on the 20-80 power scale. His bat will play, but defense at catcher is not his strong suit.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I've got Baseball America handy, I'll type out their profile for you.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Montero signed for $2 million, the highest bonus of any international free agent in the summer of 2006. He had a difficult fall, however, struggling in instructional league and having his signing bonus reduced to $1.6 million. Industry chatter about the reasons for the reduction hasn't been officially confirmed. Montero has exceptional raw power to all fields, coupling a discerning eye for a young player with brute strength and bat speed. He has plenty of arm strength for his position and natural leadership ability, with an effusive personality and improving knowledge of English. At 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, Montero has already grown very large for an 18-year-old. The Yankees say he has lower-body flexibility, necessary for blocking balls in the dirt, and has worked hard to become a solid receiver. There are mixed opinions about his ability to stay at catcher, and he'll have to keep working on his body and catch-and-throw skills to stay behind the plate. He threw out just three of 32 baserunners (9 percent) in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut. If Montero can remain a catcher, he profiles as a future all-star. He has a leg up on 2007 second-round pick Austin Romine, who has yet to play as a pro, for the starting catching job at short-season Staten Island

 

They rate him the Yankees' #6 prospect. I have not seen him play of course and I would not trust GCL stats, so I can not add much more. I would bet on him moving from behind the plate, but remember that Mike Sweeney and Carlos Delgado developed in the same fashion.

 

BA Rates the Yankee catching prospects:

Jesus Montero (6th in the system)

Austin Romine (22)

Francisco Cervelli (23)

Chase Weems (unranked)

Kyle Anson (unranked)

 

They profile Cervelli as a future backup, an effective catch-and-throw guy.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Thanks for that. If he could be an average defensive catcher at best, that would be fine. How many truely great catchers are there in MLB anyway? Not very many, a lot of teams punt at that position anyway. I'd rather bring somebody up from within for league minimum than overpay for some 35 year old off the scrap heap who won't give me anything but an automatic out.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

One other thing is that with a rookie ball 18 year old, don't expect him to jump to the Majors right away. This kid is a long ways away.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

One other thing is that with a rookie ball 18 year old, don't expect him to jump to the Majors right away. This kid is a long ways away.

 

 

Don't forget that catchers are notorious for being late bloomers as well. I'm not sure what it is about the position, but it seems like many guys don't hit their stride until their mid-to-late 20s.

 

With Montero, even if his defense blossoms in the next few years, it might be hard to crack the major league team. Pitchers often call the shots when it comes to what catchers they will use, and a young kid with sketchy English skills and gamecalling experience could be at a disadvantage.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

One other thing is that with a rookie ball 18 year old, don't expect him to jump to the Majors right away. This kid is a long ways away.

 

 

Don't forget that catchers are notorious for being late bloomers as well. I'm not sure what it is about the position, but it seems like many guys don't hit their stride until their mid-to-late 20s.

 

With Montero, even if his defense blossoms in the next few years, it might be hard to crack the major league team. Pitchers often call the shots when it comes to what catchers they will use, and a young kid with sketchy English skills and gamecalling experience could be at a disadvantage.

Most players don't hit their stride until their mid to late 20s, regardless of position. Several recent catchers have reached the majors and excelled at a young age recently, including Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer.

 

As far as the English language, isn't that a silly statement? Over a third of the catchers in the league right now come from Latin America, and now Kenji Johjima has performed admirably coming over from Japan.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Most players don't hit their stride until their mid to late 20s, regardless of position. Several recent catchers have reached the majors and excelled at a young age recently, including Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer.

 

Good point, but they seem to be the exception to the rule. Or maybe this is one of those things that I've been told my whole life even though it has no actual bearing in real life.

 

As far as the English language, isn't that a silly statement? Over a third of the catchers in the league right now come from Latin America, and now Kenji Johjima has performed admirably coming over from Japan.

 

In hindsight, you might be right. I'm just saying that you often see good catchers failing to have a repoire with their pitchers and it costing them their playing time. I was just thinking that age, questionable catching skills and language barrier could be a reason that he'd fail to catch on in NY.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

The Yankees best pitcher does not speak English. Neither does their second baseman and left- and centerfielders.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

How many truely great catchers are there in MLB anyway? Not very many, a lot of teams punt at that position anyway.

 

Offensively I think it's been a rather interesting decade for catchers... Yeah, most are somewhat poor (Brad Ausmus for example) offensively but there are a quite a few guys with 90 or higher OPS+ for their career.

 

Jason Varitek: .267/.350/.447 with a 103 OPS+ in 11 seasons

Jorge Posada: .277/.381/.479 with a 124 OPS+ in 13 seasons

Victor Martinez: .301/.373/.473 with a 123 OPS+ in 6 seasons

Ivan Rodriguez: .303/.340/.479 with a 111 OPS+ in 17 seasons

Joe Mauer: .313/.394/.459 with a 125 OPS+ in 4 seasons

Jason Kendall: .297/.375/.394 with a 100 OPS+ in 12 seasons

Paul Lo Duca: .288/.338/.414 with a 99 OPS+ in 10 seasons

Brian McCann: .296/.351/.491 with a 116 OPS+ in 3 seasons

Josh Bard: .275/.341/.415 with a 102 OPS+ in 6 seasons (126 in past 2 years)

 

Then you have guys coming up or entering the league like: Kurt Suzuki, Mike Napoli, Russell Martin, Kenji Johjima, Carlos Ruiz, and many others. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Catcher revolution continue offensively.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

But out of the list you just referenced, Lo Duca, Kendall and Pudge are cooked, Varitek and and Posada are a year or two away from joining them and there is very little in the pipeline to replace them. The best catching prospects are Jeff Clement and Jarrod Saltalamacchia and neither of those guys are expected to stick at the position.

 

But then again catchers supposedly develop late. There might be a few more that emerge in the next few years. I still hold some hope for Dioner Navarro, Jesus Flores, Kelly Shoppach and a few others to become league average hitters.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Didn't Navarro have the lowest OPS of all 800-odd eligible candidates in the bigs last year? I know he's really young, but, yikes. I think Mauer will move from behind the plate sooner than later also. He's too valuable to afford getting as many days off as catchers need. (For some reason I can't make new paragraphs)

[Brett Favre 0]

Looking at the home plate incident, hearing about it, it didn't sound like it was a problem but looking at the replay, the ball hadn't even gotten to Cervelli and he could have definitely avoided him on the way to the plate. I thought Cervelli was waiting for him right in front of the play, but he was looking for the ball and this guy comes and spears him or whatever. Eh, I don't like the play. And is this guy going to make the team cause he ran over a catcher? Have we stooped this low in judging players? It's like the Aaron Rowand method of scouting.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Didn't Navarro have the lowest OPS of all 800-odd eligible candidates in the bigs last year? I know he's really young, but, yikes. I think Mauer will move from behind the plate sooner than later also. He's too valuable to afford getting as many days off as catchers need. (For some reason I can't make new paragraphs)

 

 

Navarro had an .815 OPS over the second half of the season last year. I don't know if that's a fluke or a sign of turning the corner, but it's a good performance for a 23-year-old catcher. Let's see how well he builds on it this season.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Navarro was a peice in the Johnson/Vazquez trade in 2005.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Looking at the home plate incident, hearing about it, it didn't sound like it was a problem but looking at the replay, the ball hadn't even gotten to Cervelli and he could have definitely avoided him on the way to the plate. I thought Cervelli was waiting for him right in front of the play, but he was looking for the ball and this guy comes and spears him or whatever. Eh, I don't like the play. And is this guy going to make the team cause he ran over a catcher? Have we stooped this low in judging players? It's like the Aaron Rowand method of scouting.

If the ball hadn't gotten to Cervelli, what is he doing in front of the plate? By the rulebook a player is not to block the plate or a base without possession of the ball. Of course no one enforces it, and that's going to cause a controversy one of these days.

[Brett Favre 0]

He was barely blocking the plate. It looked like he was stepping up to receive the throw as well. Since the ball hadn't gotten there yet he could've avoided Cervelli. If Cervelli had the ball, I wouldn't mind.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Billy Crystal is going to play for the Yankees in Thursday's exhibition game.

[Brett Favre 0]

Finally. A meaningful spring training game.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Ok, this has to stop. Dusty Baker and Joe Morgan know more about baseball than we do, guys.

Writers like Paul Daugherty though?

 

Dusty Baker gets criticism not only because he disagrees with the general stat community, but because his theories generally collide with what other managers are doing in this era. Washington's Manny Acta and Kansas City's Trey Hillman have recently espoused the merits of OBP in interviews. As far as Joe Morgan, he says some silly things because he gets information second hand. He never managed and as a player, he did as much to contribute to winning teams as any player in history.

 

I would point out that most of the criticism of Adam Dunn comes from sportswriters and a certain tenured radio broadcaster. The front office themselves have never seen fit to trade Dunn. Watching what Baker actually does in Cincinnati will be very interesting.

 

I don't have any kind of problem with not liking Dusty Baker as a manager, or Joe Morgan as an announcer. It's just when people puff out their chest and pretend they know more about baseball than these guys. Does that make any sense? Like, I hate Isiah Thomas, but the guy knows more about basketball than I do. I think that sort of makes sense.

[CanadianChris 0]

Ok, this has to stop. Dusty Baker and Joe Morgan know more about baseball than we do, guys.

Writers like Paul Daugherty though?

 

Dusty Baker gets criticism not only because he disagrees with the general stat community, but because his theories generally collide with what other managers are doing in this era. Washington's Manny Acta and Kansas City's Trey Hillman have recently espoused the merits of OBP in interviews. As far as Joe Morgan, he says some silly things because he gets information second hand. He never managed and as a player, he did as much to contribute to winning teams as any player in history.

 

I would point out that most of the criticism of Adam Dunn comes from sportswriters and a certain tenured radio broadcaster. The front office themselves have never seen fit to trade Dunn. Watching what Baker actually does in Cincinnati will be very interesting.

 

I don't have any kind of problem with not liking Dusty Baker as a manager, or Joe Morgan as an announcer. It's just when people puff out their chest and pretend they know more about baseball than these guys. Does that make any sense? Like, I hate Isiah Thomas, but the guy knows more about basketball than I do. I think that sort of makes sense.

I don't think it's a matter of people thinking they know more than them. It's more about being frustrated that these guys are so far behind the times, and are seemingly proud of being so far behind the times. I get mad whenever Dusty spouts off his nonsense, because there are people who listen to him and actually buy into what he says. Adam Dunn probably doesn't give a shit what Dusty says, because he's been in the league long enough, but Joey Votto is in a position where he can have his career changed for the worse because Dusty thinks his way is the be all and end all of baseball, and that's not right.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Ok, this has to stop. Dusty Baker and Joe Morgan know more about baseball than we do, guys.

Writers like Paul Daugherty though?

 

Dusty Baker gets criticism not only because he disagrees with the general stat community, but because his theories generally collide with what other managers are doing in this era. Washington's Manny Acta and Kansas City's Trey Hillman have recently espoused the merits of OBP in interviews. As far as Joe Morgan, he says some silly things because he gets information second hand. He never managed and as a player, he did as much to contribute to winning teams as any player in history.

 

I would point out that most of the criticism of Adam Dunn comes from sportswriters and a certain tenured radio broadcaster. The front office themselves have never seen fit to trade Dunn. Watching what Baker actually does in Cincinnati will be very interesting.

 

I don't have any kind of problem with not liking Dusty Baker as a manager, or Joe Morgan as an announcer. It's just when people puff out their chest and pretend they know more about baseball than these guys. Does that make any sense? Like, I hate Isiah Thomas, but the guy knows more about basketball than I do. I think that sort of makes sense.

 

Is this aimed at the sabremetric community? If not, my apologies in advance.

 

I know myself, what I'm most irked by is that these general managers and club managers have all these tools and statistics at their disposal to utilize. I was reading "Feeding The Monster" about the mid 2000's Boston Red Sox and this quote jumped out at me, "Epstein's baseball operations crew was providing the team's coaching staff with voluminous reports-on upcoming opponents, on how best to use the players on the team-which Little largely seemed to ignore" (page 208). That kind of sums up what annoys me because there are all these statistics meant to help but managers like Dusty either ignore them or refuse to give them a second thought. It's not like the sabremetric community is trying to be nerdy and come up with complex things. They've been able to approximate how many runs a team can be projected to score over a season. How is that something negative or not worth looking at?

 

Rather than using just batting average, they can tell you how a hitter hits at different counts, against lefties vs. righties, and how he hits against certain pitchers over his career. Why would you, as a manager, not use those numbers to your benefit? As a general manager, why pay a guy $11 Million a season when you could get a similar or better player for $4-$5 Million cheaper and use the extra money for a better pitcher or more depth on the bench?

 

I'm well aware that I'm far from the most knowledgeable guy about baseball but that's why I'm not scouting college/high school players. Instead, I'm a fan who's lucky to have a team with a general manager/manager who understands that these new statistics being developed are done to improve how to see talent as much as possible. I'd hope as a fan of any team, that you'd want to see your team successful and if that means utilizing new stats such as "VORP" or "Adjusted OPS+" than so be it. I'll be the first to tell you that mathematically I couldn't tell you how to do the equations for 1/3 to 1/2 of the sabremetric stats out there but at the same time, I understand how they could maximize efficiency both financially and on the field.