Chinese Democracy Leaks

[PUT THAT DICK IN MY MOUTH! 0]

but what am I missing here?

 

Well I think she's pretty rad, but I don't know what to tell you here. There's not really a lot to "get" with Taylor Swift, ya know? Either you think she's totally adorable and endearing or you don't. Not a whole lot more to it than that.

[BUTT 0]

Remember how popular the claim that "rock is dead" was back in '97? I seem to recall that Marilyn Manson was a big proponent of this, and pledged that his next album (later to be titled Mechanical Animals) would be a Bowie-style glam revival. And then, by 2000, rock was "back" and MM returned to his trademark Shitty Nu-Metal. I don't regret that period, though. Nu-metal doesn't quite have the cultural resonance of hair metal (probably because it understandably never took hold with the female music-buying public), so it's not as ripe for parody, but I swear to you it's five times more hilarious.

[PUT THAT DICK IN MY MOUTH! 0]

Welp, I just admitted to liking Taylor Swift in public. Cred destroyed.

[BUTT 0]

but what am I missing here?

 

Well I think she's pretty rad, but I don't know what to tell you here. There's not really a lot to "get" with Taylor Swift, ya know? Either you think she's totally adorable and endearing or you don't. Not a whole lot more to it than that.

Is T-Swift about to become a hipster cause célèbre the way Kelly Clarkson was a few years ago? Just warn me now so I can prepare.

[Guest Czecherbear]

No, rock died a long time ago. This is just pissing on the grave.

Rock never died and never will.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PUT THAT DICK IN MY MOUTH! 0]

Is T-Swift about to become a hipster cause célèbre the way Kelly Clarkson was a few years ago? Just warn me now so I can prepare.

 

I don't think so. Maybe? I don't know. I live in Michigan, man; I don't really have my finger on the pulse of hipster America. I just really like "Our Song"

[Precious Roy 0]

Best Buy = No Buys

 

Isn't Walmart the top music retailer in the country? You can't hit #1 without them. And Walmart seems a lot more friendly to the GnR target audience, namely people old enough to actually remember them. Whenever I go to Best Buy all I see in the music section are teenage girls and hot topic rejects.

[BUTT 0]

Wal-Mart would have guaranteed more sales. I bet Best Buy just offered a better deal. Besides, they say "fuck" once on the album and that doesn't fly in The House That Sam Built.

[Use Your Illusion 0]

Were you referring to Holy Wood as shitty nu-metal?

[BUTT 0]

I'M NOT A SLAAAAAAAAAAAAVE

TO A GOOOOOOOODDDDDDDDDDDD

THAT DOESN'T EXIIIIIIIIIIIIST

 

I'M NOT A SLAAAAAAAAAAAVE

TO A WOOOOORLD

THAT DOESN'T GIVE A SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTT

 

Sorry, it never did much for me. The "Sweet Dreams" cover is still great.

[BUTT 0]

Although I'll take Manson over Limp Bizkit, Papa Roach, Staind, Adema, Puddle of Mudd, Default, or Chevelle any day. Except for comedy purposes.

[haws bah gawd 0]

Wal-Mart would have guaranteed more sales. I bet Best Buy just offered a better deal. Besides, they say "fuck" once on the album and that doesn't fly in The House That Sam Built.

 

Oh, heavens no! We'll sell the GTA series, R-Rated Movies, Tobacco, Alcohol, and any other "questionable" material. but we are NOT going to poison your children's minds with that horrible Rock or Rap language.

[BUTT 0]

Accepting the fact that there was no way this album was going to turn a profit anyway, that's about as a good a first-week posting you're going to get from a new GNR album in 2008.

 

BACK TO THIS AGAIN, reportedly Best Buy paid $14 million for 1.6 million copies of the album. As Best Buy have been the ones handling all the promotion for the album, apparently it already is profitable.

[Giuseppe Zangara 0]

I imagine you stamping your feet and gritting your teeth as you typed that.

 

Now how much money do you think Best Buy will lose on this? And Kreese, though this did help the album make its money back, there's no way it would've turned a profit otherwise.

[UZI Suicide 0]

Accepting the fact that there was no way this album was going to turn a profit anyway, that's about as a good a first-week posting you're going to get from a new GNR album in 2008.

 

BACK TO THIS AGAIN, reportedly Best Buy paid $14 million for 1.6 million copies of the album. As Best Buy have been the ones handling all the promotion for the album, apparently it already is profitable.

 

WHAT? Where did you read that? I have a hard time believing Best Buy would pay $14 million for it.

[Use Your Illusion 0]

Hilarious how Axl is just having none of this. He's thrown a massive tantrum by the sounds. Crazy to think that he'd practically piss away all the time he spent on the album because of something his label has done etc. Then again, it's Axl Rose.

[bob_barron 0]

I wonder what Avril's "My World" sounds like.

 

It's a decent song, but not one of her better ones

 

[BUTT 0]

I imagine you stamping your feet and gritting your teeth as you typed that.

 

Now how much money do you think Best Buy will lose on this? And Kreese, though this did help the album make its money back, there's no way it would've turned a profit otherwise.

Oh come on. I'm not being a JAxl about this album. (Not a dis.) I just told you it would make money, and apparently it has. I don't have any personal stake in the success of Chinese Democracy. What's important is that I was right. :headbang: :headbang:

 

How much money will Best Buy lose? Lots! Bet they didn't count on Axl not doing any promotion or videos for the record. But they should have! Besides which, the first two singles are vaguely nu-metallish and it's no surprise that they haven't caught on at radio. "Street of Dreams" is the big power ballad from the album and if it's a hit, which I suspect it could be (at the very least it's more commercially viable than the almost Linkin Park-like "Better") then sales will pick up. If not, well then MORE LIKE WORST BUY AMIRITE?

 

 

[BUTT 0]

Accepting the fact that there was no way this album was going to turn a profit anyway, that's about as a good a first-week posting you're going to get from a new GNR album in 2008.

 

BACK TO THIS AGAIN, reportedly Best Buy paid $14 million for 1.6 million copies of the album. As Best Buy have been the ones handling all the promotion for the album, apparently it already is profitable.

 

WHAT? Where did you read that? I have a hard time believing Best Buy would pay $14 million for it.

 

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPa...gi?news07368m01

 

Many are expressing surprise that Guns N’ Roses’ Chinese Democracy sold only 255k in its first week as a Best Buy exclusive. But those who have closely analyzed the situation say that comparing GNR’s total with the 802k tallied by AC/DC in its Wal-Mart exclusive is like comparing apples and oranges, in that radically different circumstances surrounded the two projects.

 

AC/DC outsold GNR by nearly 500k not because of any particular difference between the two retailers, but as a result of the amount of exposure AC/DC had leading up to release relative to Guns—and most of the blame for that rests at the feet of Axl Rose. IGA and Best Buy were handicapped on a number of levels, due in large part to Rose’s refusal to participate in the setup—dramatically reducing the ability of the label and Best Buy to market the release.

 

Contrast this situation to Columbia’s superbly orchestrated campaign for AC/DC’s Black Ice, overseen by a highly motivated Steve Barnett, who has a long, close history with the band. AC/DC seemed to be everywhere on TV, radio and the Internet in the weeks leading up to release, spiking the perfectly calibrated campaign by announcing its tour in the midst of the ramp-up and kicking it off just days after Black Ice went to market.

 

By contrast, Rose submitted to no TV or press interviews, nor did he choose take his band on the road behind the release, while no official video has yet surfaced. AC/DC has also had a far greater radio presence, leading some to wonder why IGA would be motivated to pour additional marketing and promotion dollars into the record after pocketing $14m in the one-way sale of 1.6m units.

 

Factor in that this was Best Buy’s first exclusive with a major release from a high-profile act, while Wal-Mart pioneered the arrangement back in 2005 with Garth Brooks. And some are asking whether Best Buy had sufficient time to do its own setup, given the fact that Rose didn’t approve the final artwork until a few weeks prior to the release date.

 

On the other hand, even in these less-than-ideal circumstances, most believe that Chinese Democracy fared better with Best Buy than it would have in general release, due to a concentrated effort on the part of the chain.

 

The Best Buy/GNR situation is unlikely to slow the trend considering its obvious benefits—notably including guaranteed big money and the elimination of returns—and speculators are speculating that the next big act to ride the wave could be U2, whose next album will be an important part of IGA’s hoped-for recovery from a rare down year.

 

Some assert that the GNR situation exemplifies the risk/reward trade-off so prevalent in recent Q4s, as the majors rush out superstar albums without proper setups in order to make their numbers for the year, thereby sacrificing potential long-term results for a short-term gain in the crucial fourth quarter.

[UZI Suicide 0]

I just can't believe that. Even if it is from a fairly reputable source. That is such a ridiculous dollar amount. Even if the album was a success, there was no way they were going to make even half of that back.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Well, given that Best Buy is currently selling the album for $12 (retail price: $14), they'll make it all back if they sell just over 1.2 million of the 1.6 they've received. Just under $5 million of gross product if they sell all 1.6 million copies. If one of the singles takes off (which I still doubt happens, mind you, especially with the complete lack of promotion), they'll break even.

 

But that's not really why you do an exclusive deal; you do an exclusive deal so people have to come to Best Buy or go on BestBuy.com to buy this particular item. While they're there, they buy a bunch of other stuff.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Music is just a loss leader for a store like Best Buy anyways. As long as they recoup 90-95% on the money spent on the exclusivity rights, they are in the clear. Like Edwin pointed out, since their only expense was the $14 million they only need to sell a little more than 1 million copies of the album to come out even.

[Coffin Surfer 0]

Yeah, I worked at Best Buy back during one of the big Lord of the Ring DVD releases. They were selling the DVD near a loss but cutting a profit by bringing so many people into the store where he would push the hell out of them to buy other products. Chinese Democracy, same deal.

[Giuseppe Zangara 0]

Well, given that Best Buy is currently selling the album for $12 (retail price: $14), they'll make it all back if they sell just over 1.2 million of the 1.6 they've received. Just under $5 million of gross product if they sell all 1.6 million copies. If one of the singles takes off (which I still doubt happens, mind you, especially with the complete lack of promotion), they'll break even.

 

But that's not really why you do an exclusive deal; you do an exclusive deal so people have to come to Best Buy or go on BestBuy.com to buy this particular item. While they're there, they buy a bunch of other stuff.

Your math only works assuming every penny of every CD sold goes to Best Buy. Best Buy makes very little money off the sale of individual CDs alone; that's been the case as long as they've been in business.

 

What are the specifics of this exclusivity deal? Did Axl & Co. trade off the right to royalties in exchange for the $14 million? I doubt that. That money's largely going to pay off debts accrued during the recording of this album.

 

Then, of course, there's the idea that once people go to Best Buy, they'll end up buying a bunch of other stuff, thus helping the chain make a profit. That's what they've been doing for years, so obviously it's worked for them, but is that happening with people who buy Chinese Democracy? How many of those people are going in there, picking up the album, and getting, say, a Blu Ray player or new refrigerator while they're at it?

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

I can't imagine an arrangement where Best Buy wouldn't get the majority of that cash, though I suppose it's possible. I've read very little on this whole deal, but I conceived it as Best Buy essentially giving the label an advance on their returns in exchange for a pile of albums and the guarantee that no one else can sell them. At the point that $14 million is already invested, I don't where the label would be doing much in the way of double-dipping. Otherwise, Best Buy really must be expecting it to be one hell of loss leader.

[BUTT 0]

I've read very little on this whole deal, but I conceived it as Best Buy essentially giving the label an advance on their returns in exchange for a pile of albums and the guarantee that no one else can sell them.

By "returns" do you mean profits or returns from the retailer to the manufacturer? Usually with these exclusive deals the CDs are sold one-way, so Best Buy likely can't send unsold copies of Chinese Democracy back to Universal.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Profitz.

[BUTT 0]

Haha oh shit, it's not even going to be in the top 10 next week.

 

As we head into the home stretch of the sales week, it’s all about the resurgent Britney Spears, whose Circus (Jive/ZLG) has far exceeded expectations and now appears headed toward 470-490k. Just what the doctor ordered—a feel-good story heading into the holidays. The only other debut that will make the leader board is Akon’s Freedom (SRC/Universal Motown), which should wind up at #7 with a projected 90-95k. Otherwise it’ll be the usual suspects: #2 Taylor Swift (Big Machine), 170-180k; #3 Beyonce (Music World/Columbia), 160-170k; #4 Kanye West (Roc-a-Fella/IDJ), 150-160k; #5 Twilight (Chop Shop/Atlantic), 120-130k; #6 Nickelback (Roadrunner), 110-120k; #8 Now 29 (UMe) 85-90k; and #9-10 dust-up between David Cook (19/RCA/RMG) and High School Musical 3 (Walt Disney), both trending toward 80-85k. Speaking of trends, next week’s Top 10 will break the recent pattern of domination by one or two labels and will instead be spread among 10 different ones.

[BUTT 0]

LW TW artist / album label power index % change

-- 1 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 504,507 -- CIRCUS

2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 182,517 -29% FEARLESS

4 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 148,546 -42% I AM... SASHA FIERCE

1 4 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 145,041 -67% 808S & HEARTBREAK

7 5 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 135,952 -20% DARK HORSE

8 6 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 134,333 -17% SOUNDTRACK

-- 7 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 106,626 -- FREEDOM

9 8 NOW 29 UME 90,293 -35% VARIOUS ARTISTS

10 9 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 88,424 -19% DAVID COOK

11 10 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 84,051 -16% SOUNDTRACK

12 11 AC/DC COLUMBIA 82,922 -8% BLACK ICE

19 12 ENYA REPRISE 67,470 +3% AND WINTER CAME

17 13 FAITH HILL WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 66,084 -8% JOY TO THE WORLD

14 14 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 64,250 -23% PROMISE

6 15 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 61,227 -68% DAY & AGE

5 16 LUDACRIS DTP/DEF JAM/IDJ 60,812 -71% THEATER OF THE MIND

3 17 GUNS N' ROSES GEFFEN 56,230 -78% CHINESE DEMOCRACY

 

 

Yeah, that's worth an ouch.

[UZI Suicide 0]

Epic fail.

 

Well, I guess we can officially say Slash is more successful without Axl than Axl is without Slash.