More Great Poll Numbers...

[jesse_ewiak 0]

Shamlessly stolen from emergingdemocraticmajority weblog, which Mike and Vyce aren't going to read anyway...so if you want, add 5 points to the numbers to account for evil liberal tilt!

 

Can There Be Such a Thing as Too Much Bad News for President Bush?

 

I didn't think so. So, rather than feeling guilty for piling on, let's take a peek at the new CBS News/New York Times survey. Here are the key findings.

 

1. Bush's favorable/unfavorable rating is net negative for their fifth survey in a row (going back to the beginning of April).

 

2. Kerry-Edwards beats Bush-Cheney by 5 points (49-45), including an 8 point lead among independent voters. Note that this 49-45 lead is the identical result that CBS News obtained in their overnight poll after Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate, suggesting that the Edwards bounce has some staying power.

 

3. Bush's overall approval rating is net negative (45 percent approval/48 percent disapproval) for their fourth survey in a row, going back to late April. His 45 percent rating, while a slight improvement over his late May and late June ratings, keeps him well into the danger zone for incumbents.

 

4. Right direction/wrong track is at 36/56, essentially unchanged since their last survey about three weeks ago.

 

5. His approval rating on foreign policy is his worst ever at 39/55, as is his rating on handling the campaign against terrorism (51/43). (Note: this latter trend contradicts a recent Post finding suggesting an improvement in Bush's rating in this area.) His approval rating on the economy is still going nowhere fast and, at 42/51, has still failed to reach the exalted heights of mid-February, when his economic rating reached 44/50. And his approval rating on Iraq is 37/58, practically a carbon copy of his dismal ratings in their late June and late May polls.

 

6. The Democrats have a 9 point advantage in the generic congressional contest, consistent with the Democracy Corps poll I covered on Friday.

 

7. John Edwards has a net +22 in his favorability rating, while Dick Cheney is now at -9, his worst rating ever.

 

8. For the first time, a majority (51 percent) says we should have stayed out Iraq, rather than we did the right thing by taking military action (45 percent). And the highest number ever (62 percent) says the result of the war with Iraq wasn't worth the loss of life and other costs of attacking Iraq.

 

9. With all the brouhaha in the Senate about the gay marriage constitutional amendment, the number who think gays should be allowed to either marry or form civil unions continues to climb--from 55 percent in March, to 57 percent in May to 59 percent in this latest survey.

 

10. The highest number ever (60 percent) think the US should not attack another country unless the US is attacked first.

 

11. The Democrats have an 8 point advantage in party ID without leaners and a 14 point advantage with leaners. Shades of the much-maligned Los Angeles Times poll. This party ID advantage, if it holds, gives the Democrats a built-in advantage on election day, which the Republicans then have to try to desperately counter by maximizing turnout of their base.

[Guest MikeSC]

Wow, that's the next best thing to an ACTUAL source.

-=Mike

[Stephen Joseph 0]

I thought the last gallup poll numbers showed bush slightly ahead?

anyone know?

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

If you can't trust the emergingdemocraticmajority weblog, who can you trust?...

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

I thought the last gallup poll numbers showed bush slightly ahead?

anyone know?

Not even close.

 

From PollingReport.com:

 

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. July 8-11, 2004. N=706 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

 

.

 

"Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?"

 

.

 

Bush/

Cheney Kerry/

Edwards Neither

(vol.) Other

(vol.) No

Opinion

% % % % %

7/8-11/04

46 50 2 - 2

[Guest MikeSC]

I thought the last gallup poll numbers showed bush slightly ahead?

anyone know?

Not that I've seen. The average poll has Kerry and Bush in a statistical dead heat. -=Mike

[Vyce 0]

Shamlessly stolen from emergingdemocraticmajority weblog, which Mike and Vyce aren't going to read anyway...so if you want, add 5 points to the numbers to account for evil liberal tilt!

5 points? Bah. I already added 10.

[Vyce 0]

If you can't trust the emergingdemocraticmajority weblog, who can you trust?...

No one, kkk.

 

I base my life upon it.

 

So much that I threw away my I Ching. Who needs it now that we have blogs?

[jesse_ewiak 0]

Well, I figured there was no way you guys would go to anything involving the New York Times, but if you want a link to the poll...

 

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/khtml/2004...P5hbg7WBH0SP/VA

[Guest MikeSC]

Shamlessly stolen from emergingdemocraticmajority weblog, which Mike and Vyce aren't going to read anyway...so if you want, add 5 points to the numbers to account for evil liberal tilt!

 

Can There Be Such a Thing as Too Much Bad News for President Bush?

 

I didn't think so. So, rather than feeling guilty for piling on, let's take a peek at the new CBS News/New York Times survey. Here are the key findings.

 

1. Bush is a poo-poo head.

 

2. Kerry - Edwards is DA BOMB! DA BOMB, BABEE!

 

3. Bush BAAAAD! He rapes kittens!

 

4. WE'RE GOING TO DIE! AIEEE!

 

5. We actually think Bush is a bit of a pussy.

 

6. Our congressmen get women hot. HOT, I tell you.

 

7. We hope Edwards let us spoon with him a few times.

 

8. We WON! WE WON! WE TURNED PEOPLE AGAINST THIS! YES!

 

Next up --- we're going to make WWII look like a horrible mistake.

 

9. We think Bush is a homophobe, too.

 

10. We should be sucker-punched, bee-yotch!

 

11. In purely theoretical assumptions based on spurious opinions --- WE RULE! YOU WILL BOW TO US!

Adapted for reality.

-=Mike

[jesse_ewiak 0]

Is Bush as handsome as Clark Gable and tough as John Wayne in your reality too, Mike?

[NoCalMike 0]

well considering it is only July, no lead is safe, and no deficet is THAT troubling....

[Guest MikeSC]

Is Bush as handsome as Clark Gable and tough as John Wayne in your reality too, Mike?

Hell yeah. Bush is my dawg -- in a purely platonic manner. Sexiest man on Earth.

-=Mike

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

I think he's a good-looking man, but I'd rather bang his wife...

[Guest MikeSC]

I think he's a good-looking man, but I'd rather bang his wife...

You know, his daughters are legal now...

-=Mike

...To use a line from The Onion, her wetlands are open for drilling...

[Vyce 0]

Shouldn’t this poll have really been contained in the “Bush vs. Kerry – who do you think will win” thread already in this folder?

 

And Jesse, exactly what response were you looking for here, seeing as your poll, under the best of circumstances, was posted to essentially rub Bush's allegedly poor numbers in the face of all those who support him?

[Guest MikeSC]

Shouldn’t this poll have really been contained in the “Bush vs. Kerry – who do you think will win” thread already in this folder?

 

And Jesse, exactly what response were you looking for here, seeing as your poll, under the best of circumstances, was posted to essentially rub Bush's allegedly poor numbers in the face of all those who support him?

Heck, I like this kid.

-=Mike

...Which of course will lead to people claiming he's an alternate account of mine...

[NoCalMike 0]

I think he's a good-looking man, but I'd rather bang his wife...

You know, his daughters are legal now...

-=Mike

...To use a line from The Onion, her wetlands are open for drilling...

One of his Bush's daughters is hot, the blonde, slightly "bigger" one, however the other one along with the Kerry daughters look EXACTLY like their father's in the face, which turns me off and just plain scares me.

[jesse_ewiak 0]

I think even Mike would say they're not great poll numbers. I posted them because they're basically the latest polls out. I just figured you guys didn't want to slog through a ton of stuff over at the NYT site, so I posted up an analysis. It's not like I didn't expect Mike or you to rip it. :-)

 

I don't really think Kerry or Bush will win in a landslide. It'll be close, and whoever wins will likely end up with 280-290 EV's and probably a split Congress. Am I liberal? Hell yeah, but it's not like the conservatives don't post every time some poll or something says Bush is ahead.

[Vyce 0]

Am I liberal? Hell yeah, but it's not like the conservatives don't post every time some poll or something says Bush is ahead.

I don't know if that true, but frankly, poll numbers don't deserve their own thread, unless we're going to make a "one and only" election thread in which we can stick all these little pieces of info.

[Highland 0]

I think you're all forgetting that these polls are, frankly, irrelevant so early in the campaign.

[Guest Cerebus]

According to OMGREALCLEARPOLITICSCONSERVATIVEBLOGLOL~! the average of the four latest polls (Rasmussen, CBS/NY Times, Washington Post, & Newsweek) is dead even for approval.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Every canidate receives a bump in the polls after choosing their VP. Bob Dole went up has high as 15% after choosing Jack Kemp.

 

It should also be noted these nation wide polls amount to squat. The only polls to look at are state by state.

[Jobber of the Week 0]

I tend to trust the Newsweek, WashPost, and Zogby polls and so far it's pretty even.

 

Gallup I gave up on after that stupid morality acceptable/unacceptable thing inspired me to look into them harder and they do seem to have a conservative bent.