EVIL~! alkeiper

How did Iguodala do Al? Apparently Big Jackass wants to be traded, and to that I say please do. From what I saw, I was very pleased with his performance.

I like this format, Alf. Good debut for the 76ers, as they come back to beat the Celtics. We don't have great players (except AI), but we have a very deep team, and we can pull off a good season with the right matchups.

From Leyland... I ran data for these kind of things. There is NO correlation between productive outs and scoring runs. There is no correlation between striking out and failing to score runs. Situational hitting? The Phillies team OPS was .788. It was .784 in Close and Late situations, and with runners in scoring position. It was .770 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs, and .767 with the bases loaded. Negligible differences. Hell, the Phillies finished third in runs scored. That would indicate the problem was their pitching. Leyland failed to identify the real problems with the team. Manuel's been with the organization a few years. Thome's a no-nonsense guy, and I doubt he'll start dictating managerial selection. Especially since no one makes a decision involving Thome like they do with a pitcher.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1915690 Jim Leyland gave some troubling quotes about productive outs, so its probably best that he wasn't hired. Manuel comes from a limited major league managing background, but he experienced success with the Cleveland Indians.

Usually you can get the printable version, and then copy and paste from that. Or utilize the Source button in your browser options. Not that I'd condone copying stuff off Insider or anything...

Glaus hasn't repeated his 2000 either. Why does he get a pass, and Koskie does not? What it boils down to is that Koskie has had better seasons three of the last four years (according to Win Shares), and if you grab Glaus he might not even play third. I know he's productive when healthy, but that is a big if, and health counts as a performance variable.

They're on the same team, so Mik is referring to them as teammates, not competing for the same award.

I'm not sure what they have to spend, but I could certainly see a Joe Randa type ending up there.

Matheny was a lazy choice, but I doubt no one will latch on to Brian Schneider when he played in Montreal.

1. Adrian Beltre 2. Corey Koskie 3. Troy Glaus 4. Shea Hillenbrand 5. Vinny Castilla 6. Joe Randa 7. Tony Batista 8. Jose Hernandez 9. Shane Halter 10. Herbert Perry Adrian Beltre posted the best year of any free agent, hitting .334 with 48 home runs in Dodger Stadium. Beltre has been inconsistant, but at 26 it is quite possible that his improvement is real. His most comparable player is Ron Santo, which is a good sign. I think Beltre is a good investment. Corey Koskie battled injuries this season. He boasts a career 280/373/463 line. I would expect similar production for the next three or four seasons. Troy Glaus has power, but his days of playing third are likely over. Glaus has never been a great defender, and injuries have limited him to 149 games over the last two seasons. As a hitter, Glaus will hit around .250, with plate discipline and power. Shea Hillenbrand is a league average hitter, and slightly below average defender. He's young enough to make a decent fill-in for a few seasons, as long as he is not overpaid. Vinny Castilla had a great year in Colorado. The problem is that he has never had a great year outside of Colorado. This season, he hit .218/.281/.493 on the road. He holds a career .256/.301/.443 pn the road. Castilla is a bad investment for any team which does not play half of its games in Denver.

Exactly, Tom.

Third or fourth.

In a chat yesterday, Gammons refuted the Oakland rumors. He stated the Athletics told the Yankees they have nothing that interests them.

The length of Delgado's contract is not going to determine how much money he makes. Plain and simple, teams are finished approaching $20 Million in player contracts (except Beltran). There's no chance Delgado tops $12 Million, and I'm going on record with that. The Mets are the only big market team even in the market for a first baseman this season.

Uribe posted a .327 OBP and .506 Slugging percentage last season, at the age of 24. He's also above average defensively. You could do a LOT worse.

And Guardado indeed exercised his player option, meaning he'll stay in Seattle, at $4 Million.

This is the interesting position in the free agency market, with a ton of useful players available. 1. Nomar Garciaparra 2. Edgar Renteria 3. Christian Guzman 4. Omar Vizquel 5. Orlando Cabrera 6. Jose Valentin 7. Rich Aurilia 8. Royce Clayton 9. Barry Larkin 10. Alex Gonzalez Nomar Garciaparra had a poor season by his standards, lowering his value. He is a potential bargain. Garciaparra holds a .322 career batting average, third among active players. His four most similar batters at his age are in the Hall of Fame. He still has quite a few years left. I think the Angels, Mariners, and White Sox will show interest. Edgar Renteria had a subpar year, posting just a 287/327/401 line. Still, he has hitting potential, speed, and he is a superior defender. At 29, he could be an excellent long term investment. Christian Guzman is just entering his prime years, which could mean a boost to his offensive numbers. But his key is his defense, which is excellent. Guzman is an option for teams looking to improve defensively, and at 27, he is the youngest player out there. Omar Vizquel had a good year offensively, boosting his value. His offense will decline, and his defense is just average at this point. Still, he can make a nice fill in for a season. Orlando Cabrera is overrated. He boasts a gaudy .316 career OBP, and he turns 30 next season. He is good on defense, but you can find that anywhere. Based on the Red Sox' title, someone will likely overpay for his services.

Cairo turns 31 next season. It is rare for a position player to experience a sustained boost so late in his development. Reese is a fine defensive player, but his OBP is abysmal, and its hard to give him much favor when Deivi Cruz and Rey Sanchez are also available.

1. Jeff Kent 2. Placido Polanco 3. Todd Walker 4. Tony Womack 5. Miguel Cairo 6. Mark Grudzielanek 7. Damion Easley 8. Eric Young 9. Roberto Alomar 10. Pokey Reese Jeff Kent might be a few seasons away from the Hall of Fame. If he can reach 375-400 home runs, he will have an excellent argument. In any case, Kent is still an excellent hitter, and above average defensive second baseman. I would not be surprised to see the Cubs show interest here. Placido Polanco is a good contact hitter and an excellent defender. With the rise of Chase Utley, the Phillies bid him a fond farewell into the free agent market. The Yankees would be an excellent opportunity here. Todd Walker is usually good for a .270-.290 average, and 15-20 home runs. He is also a better defender than viewers give him credit for. Tony Womack saved his career with an excellent campaign in St. Louis. At 34, Womack posted a career best batting average without an improvement in his walk rate. That spells trouble. Womack will doubtless regress next season. Still, he can make a handy backup, his defense at second is good, and he is a truly excellent percentage basestealer (83%). Miguel Cairo also enjoyed a career best year in New York. Like Womack, he produced without improving his walk rate. He's a below average defender, and is better served as a backup at this stage in his career.

Those use two year averages, and use only straight counting stats and stats like batting averages. They are not an accurate rating of players, and are used only to dictate free agent compensation. Vlad Guerrero and Miguel Tejada got no more than $12 Million. The market has leveled off.

Fielding percentage and errors are poor indicators of actual fielding skill. It only measures obvious screw-ups. Derek Jeter winning is complete nonsense. He didn't have a bad fielding year at all. In fact, it was his best ever. But Christian Guzman was far and away the best defensive shortstop in the American League. By any statistical measure, Guzman tops Jeter. Bret Boone winning is pure laziness from the voters. Orlando Hudson is clearly the superior fielder. How is it bs? Should we all just sit in the dark with our heads between our legs and decide we can not read fielding statistics? Or should we give it our best shot? If you actually read James' work, you might learn a great deal.

A dual option is where both sides need to agree. A mutual option gives both sides a decision. In this case, Seattle's option was for $6 Million. Guardado's side of the option is for $4 Million.

Lee's never hit more than 22 home runs in a season, and that was his rookie year. You are not getting 30 home runs from Lee unless you stick him in Colorado. Players don't dictate how much they earn. They are only worth what teams are willing to pay them. There's no chance Delgado makes anything more than $10 Million. I think the Blue Jays can sign him for $7 Million.

It is based on season stats. I would rather do three year averages, but it is prohibitively harder to compute those quickly.

The Mariners declined Eddie Guardado's mutual option, so its up to him to decide to pick up the option or become a free agent.