Bonds, Sosa, the record

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Barry Bonds will be the next to hit 700, that can't be denied. But, I don't think he will reach 755. I just have an instinct that says he can't hit like this forever and eventually his numbers will have to go down.

 

After doing some research, if his HR numbers went down, then people may not notice. He does have a HR in every 8.7 ABs. Ruth never came close to a HR in every 7 or 8 AB for 3 straight years. Bonds has done that and it's baffling. Bonds is a different hitter than about every slugger out there. Bonds knows the strikezone. Sammy Sosa, who is also a good power hitter, strikes out more and walks less because Sosa is more prone to swing at pitches. Bonds will wait if he has to because most pitchers don't know how to get him out, so they throw crap and put him on base every other PA.

 

(I saw Bonds strike out twice in KC, once by Chris George, the owner of a 7.11 ERA and 9 wins, and by Mike MacDougal, who got Bonds to foul off two pitches and then struck him out)

 

My personal thoughts on all this aren't changing since April. In April, I realized that Sammy Sosa is on a great pace for greatness.

 

Back then, he had 500 HRs and he was only 34. I checked Baseball Almanac and only two men were younger than Sammy when they hit 500. Jimmie Foxx and Willie Mays. Ruth and Aaron were also 34 when they hit #500.

 

Now, I am aware that there is a good shot that Sosa's numbers will fall as he gets older. Sammy will be 35 in November. But, Sammy hit 40 HRs this year even if he had three things go wrong. (a) the beaning that shattered his helmet, (b) the toenail dealie, which I think was ingrown, and © the corked bat. Now, I will not get into the bat thing, it's bizarre about how it all happened.

 

ALL TIME HOME RUN LEADERBOARD ON THEIR 35TH BIRTHDAY

 

3. Hank Aaron - 510 home runs on his 35th (2/69)

2. Babe Ruth - 516 home runs on his 35th (2/30)

1. Sammy Sosa - 539 home runs on his 35th (11/03)

 

Now, you have learned a fact. Sosa has more HRs at the age of 35 than Babe Ruth had. (Sosa also had more home runs at the ages of 30, 31, 32, 33 and 34 than Ruth. Which goes from 1925 to 1929 for Ruth and 1999 to 2002 for Sosa. Although, to be fair, Aaron had more HRs than both guys until the age of 32. That was after 2001 for Sosa and 1966 for Aaron)

 

I will admit this, that compared to Jimmie Foxx, alot of sluggers look like slackers. Foxx had 500 home runs at 32 years old but his numbers fell big time and he retired with 534 home runs. Foxx did hit 58 home runs in 1932, not bad for a player who was 24 at the time.

 

So.. will Bonds hit #756? will Sosa come close to hitting 650? Is it still too early to ask "Will A-Rod hit 700"? Why did Jimmie Foxx stop hitting home runs after 1940? Any other thoughts?

[Mik 0]

I think that Sosa will end up with the alltime homerun record, regardless of what Bonds does.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

ESPN has Bonds passing Aaron in April 2006 although I've heard sooner. I think Bonds has at least 2 more years of play in him, which would make it close. I think he probably could have 1 or 2 more if he went to the AL and DH'ed.

[Bored 0]

ESPN has Bonds passing Aaron in April 2006 although I've heard sooner. I think Bonds has at least 2 more years of play in him, which would make it close. I think he probably could have 1 or 2 more if he went to the AL and DH'ed.

Okay okay I'm biased but I think I might get some to agree that Bonds should retire before going to the A.L. to DH just to break the record. It would honestly taint the record.

 

But speaking of retirement...I think he's retiring after this year. Its a huge hunch I have but that's a subject for another day.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Hes 97 Homers away from the record right now. If in 2 years he hits say, 90-96 Home Runs, I think he'll probably end up a DH in the American league for at least 1 year so he can break the record. If hes more than 30 off the record, I'd say he'd probaly retire in 2 years.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/hammer

[Guest Mindless_Aggression]

I think Alex Rodriguez could at the end of it all, end up with it. He never goes nuts like Sosa or Bonds in a season, but he always consistently hits 40 and has been for a lot of his career, if he just kept doing that for a decade and change, he might have a shot. A long shot, but he certainly has a decent chance at it.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Okay okay I'm biased but I think I might get some to agree that Bonds should retire before going to the A.L. to DH just to break the record. It would honestly taint the record.

 

Why? Hank Aaron hit his last 22 home runs while DHing for the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

As for Jimmie Foxx, perhaps an injury affected him. Also note that he missed 1943 entirely. Chances are he was called into military service.

[Guest Choken One]

A-Rod is only 28 and already has 345 Home Runs...That's a great pace and he hasn't even had that *breakout* season (hr wise)

 

Bonds hit 45 in what was one of the emotionally intense seasons one can go through, he remains in great shape for his age, He trails His Godfather by only Three Home Runs and he should be able to beat that in the first week of 2004. Then it's all about the Babe, The record that Bond's indicated he was really going after, not 755. Perhaps Bonds, knowing he might not reach 755 went the smart route and told the media that Ruth is all that matters to him, Because catching the Babe is possible, very possible. He trails the Babe by merely 56 behind. He could very well get that done at the seasons end next year but likely will hit 40-45...

 

I feel he'll reach 715 and walk away, Leaving the Hammer Alone, knowing well that going for 755 will render useless as Someone will likely pass him soon.

 

Sammy Sosa? I don't think so, This season he already slowed down and I think his age is starting to slowly show, Unless he would to move to the D.H, I can't see him closing in on Mays, much less Aaron.

 

The man to look at is, Alex Rodriguez, At the tender age of 28 has himself Halfway to Mays already and he hasn't reached his prime just yet, I don't think. A-Rod is the most complete hitter of this bunch...I strongly believe, Barring injury, Rodriguez can approach The HAMMER.

[Guest Choken One]

Okay okay I'm biased but I think I might get some to agree that Bonds should retire before going to the A.L. to DH just to break the record. It would honestly taint the record.

 

Why? Hank Aaron hit his last 22 home runs while DHing for the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

As for Jimmie Foxx, perhaps an injury affected him. Also note that he missed 1943 entirely. Chances are he was called into military service.

Didn't They say that if Ted Williams didn't miss those seasons for service he would have had Over 630 Home runs?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

He likely could have. Williams lowest home run total in the two years before and after the war was 32. Credit him with those, and he's got 96 more. You can probably assume he'd hit 35-40 more home runs during the Korean War, and at that point, 630 begins to look conservative.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I should add that Jimmie Foxx is a different case. He only missed one year, and he hit 8 home runs the year before. I can't see him getting any more than 15 that year he missed.

[Guest BobbyWhioux]

Well, if we're playing that what if game... Willie Mays was in military uniform in 52 and 53 for the Korean War. Those years would have been his second and third years in the league. He could have easily passed Babe Ruth before people even heard of The Hammer if you give him those years.

 

51, 54-73: 21 years

 

660/21 = 31.4 career season average (including his depreciating last years that he spent with the Mets).

 

30 homer years in 52 and 53 wouldn't be out of the question, and Mays has 720. At least.

 

Yeah, Williams fought in two wars, he could've passed 600 otherwise.

 

And if Griffey hadn't gone to Cincinatti and contracted Disabled List-Itis, we'd still be talking about him in this conversation. But shit happens.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Glad someone mentioned Griffey. I remember a time when he was the only one anyone was considering as a likely candidate to break the record.

 

Sosa will definitely get near it, but I don't see him sticking around long enough to break it, although I'd like to see it.

[Vern Gagne 0]

I wonder if Bonds wants to break Aaron's record. He's said he wants to pass Babe Ruth and become the all time left-handed HR leader. He's nearing 40 and may not want to play long enough to pass Aaron.

[Guest Choken One]

No because Aaron isn't the Icon that Ruth is...

 

and he knows he can't reach Aaron and likely knows well enough that someone will get 755+ shortly, likely Sosa the next season at this rate...

 

Junior's quest for 755 died April 7th 2001 on that 3rd Base line...The question remains...Can he even reach 500? He only needs I believe 42 home runs...He has the hitter's ballpark to his advantage but he can't do it on the D.L.

[Spaceman Spiff 0]

and he knows he can't reach Aaron and likely knows well enough that someone will get 755+ shortly, likely Sosa the next season at this rate...

Damn, Sosa's gonna jack 216 HR's next year? I'd *definitely* check his bat for cork every game.

 

Bonds is only 97 away from 755, so he'd be my bet to do it. 2 very good seasons, 3 at the most, and Bonds does it.

[Guest Choken One]

I meant the next season after Bonds would...Meaning if it takes Bonds THREE years, then it will take Sosa Four years...if he can stay healthy and return to his Normal 50+ seasons...

[Dr. Tom 0]

Why? Hank Aaron hit his last 22 home runs while DHing for the Milwaukee Brewers.

He also spent the last few years of his career swinging off his ass to get the record. Aaron still finished with a .305 career average, but the decline becomes noticeable once he's in sight of the HR record.

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

I can't be the only one who thinks the record is not nearly as credible as it should be, due to the high amount of pitchers in the league they have nowadays. Mark and Sammy were supposed to have like a special season, breaking the single season mark, and the record is broken like three years later? No wonder why baseball is doing so badly.

 

That's what I love about playoff baseball though, as the quality of talent is high and therefore the game is played the way it should be...

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I can't be the only one who thinks the record is not nearly as credible as it should be, due to the high amount of pitchers in the league they have nowadays. Mark and Sammy were supposed to have like a special season, breaking the single season mark, and the record is broken like three years later? No wonder why baseball is doing so badly.

 

1. Baseball isn't doing badly. It's easily one of the top 2 sports in our country, along with football.

 

2. You could make the same argument about Henry Aaron. The National League expanded in 1962 and again in 1969. Did Aaron benefit from the diluted pitching then?

 

3. The career record means something considering that its only been broken once in the last 80 years. The single season record was broken by Ruth on 4 seperate occasions within 10 years. No one's hit above 60 the last few years. I think as the years go by, we'll see just how hard hitting 70 home runs is.

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

Football is the top sport on it's own. NASCAR is number two if I remember correctly. Maybe it isn't, but it's definitely the fastest rising sports league in America, which is pretty sad.

 

EDIT: I had assumed that baseball was doing badly. What with the contraction issues, how much people hate Bud Selig, low TV ratings, etc.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Contraction was nothing more than MLB's ploy to con cities into funding brand new major league ballparks, whose profits would go directly to the owners of said teams.

 

TV ratings are low compared to past ratings, but they are in no way tanking. There's just too much interest in baseball. And there's no way NASCAR is bigger than baseball.

[Spaceman Spiff 0]

I meant the next season after Bonds would...Meaning if it takes Bonds THREE years, then it will take Sosa Four years...if he can stay healthy and return to his Normal 50+ seasons...

But you said Bonds couldn't catch Aaron. Which is it?

[Guest Brian]

I think he doesn't want Aaron, that he only wants Ruth. This last season was tough on him, and I think mentally it's really starting to wear on him. He's going for the left-handed mark, and with the walks numbers, he's just sealing it up.

[Guest BobbyWhioux]

I can't be the only one who thinks the record is not nearly as credible as it should be, due to the high amount of pitchers in the league they have nowadays. Mark and Sammy were supposed to have like a special season, breaking the single season mark, and the record is broken like three years later? No wonder why baseball is doing so badly.

Yeah.

 

Allowing Bonds to break the record just three years later was bad booking; they shouldn't have put him over like that. They need to book better so they don't get desperate for ratings and hotshot so many broken records so quickly. Too many title changes hurt credibility.

 

*wink wink*

 

 

Sosa and McGwire's "Special Season" came in 98: the first year for the expansion Diamondbacks and Devil Rays (sure, they didn't play the Devil Rays, but the D-Ray's presence DID dillute staffs league-wide).

 

And the ball's been juiced since they came back from the 94 strike to increase the odds of home runs to bring the fans back. Just like they switched to the lively ball in the wake of the Black Sox scandal and Ruth-a-mania. Dig long enough, and you can put the Maris Asterisk on ANYTHING if you really want to. Nothing is credible...

 

* Gehrig got 8 extra days of rest per year cuz they only played 154 games back then; his game streak should never have counted even before Ripken passed him.

 

* Christy Matthewson, Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Three Finger Brown, they all got to use the dead ball and they were allowed to spit and scuff and doctor the ball with impunity. Throw out ALL their ERA and Win and Strikeout and Scoreless inning records. And any other great pitcher from 1900 - 1920 you can think of (Addie Joss, Eddie Plank, etc).

 

* Ruth, Mantle, Maris, all got to exploit that short porch in Yankee stadium's right field. Asterisk ALL their season and career home run totals.

 

* They widened the strikezone for 1968 in a deliberate attempt to keep scoring from getting out of hand. Gibson's 1.12 ERA that year (an N.L. record) doesn't count.

 

* They have three rounds of playoffs now, since 95, instead of just 2 or just 1 (as they did prior to '69). Big ass asterisks for the post-season hitting records and numbers that Derek Jeter and David Justice and so on have...

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Nice little bit of sarcasm.

 

Its worth noting that Maris hit 30 of his 31 home runs on the road.

 

I'd also note that the home run explosion started BEFORE the Black Sox scandal. Ruth would've hit 40 home runs in 1919 if he didn't play in Fenway Park that year. The real catalyst for the "lively" ball was the Ray Chapman beanball.