On November 3, 2004...

[BX 0]

According to estimates made by the North Carolina State Elections office, Gore got 1,257,692 votes in 2000, compared to Bush's 1,631,163 votes.

 

A difference of 373,000 some votes. I think the chances are good for Kerry/Edwards to pick up a lot of those swing votes, especially given Edwards name-recognition and general "charisma".

 

By the way, I'm left to wonder why charisma is so often cited by Republicans when talking about Kerry, (and his preceieved lack of it). This is a fucking election, not a game of EWR. "Charisma" shouldn't figure into a candidate so damn much, you know?

[Guest MikeSC]

According to estimates made by the North Carolina State Elections office, Gore got 1,257,692 votes in 2000, compared to Bush's 1,631,163 votes.

 

A difference of 373,000 some votes. I think the chances are good for Kerry/Edwards to pick up a lot of those swing votes, especially given Edwards name-recognition and general "charisma".

 

By the way, I'm left to wonder why charisma is so often cited by Republicans when talking about Kerry, (and his preceieved lack of it). This is a fucking election, not a game of EWR. "Charisma" shouldn't figure into a candidate so damn much, you know?

Charisma desperately is a part of politics. Like it or not, it's a popularity contest. Why do you think Clinton drubbed Dole so badly? Because Dole lacked the charisma Clinton had in spades.

 

Well, this'll get ugly as the US Chamber of Commerce has vowed to disavow themselves of their usual neutral stance and unload on Kerry, since he picked John Edwards, whom the group loathes more than words can express.

-=Mike

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Really, though, no one's naive enough to think it doesn't factor in. I'm just amused that people think Bush is more charasmatic than Kerry, and that this makes him more likely to win. That's like saying that Osama bin Laden is more evil than Saddam Hussein, so Saddam obviously will go to heaven.

 

Seriously, they're both so heinously devoid of charisma that it's not even gonna matter. Edwards will be a breath of fresh air.

[Guest MikeSC]

Really, though, no one's naive enough to think it doesn't factor in. I'm just amused that people think Bush is more charasmatic than Kerry, and that this makes him more likely to win. That's like saying that Osama bin Laden is more evil than Saddam Hussein, so Saddam obviously will go to heaven.

 

Seriously, they're both so heinously devoid of charisma that it's not even gonna matter. Edwards will be a breath of fresh air.

Edwards is going to be painted in colors that'll make Dan Quayle look dignified in comparison.

 

Kerry has Dukakis-level charisma. He looked like a goof while going target hunting. He's trying to look like a "normal guy" and bombing horribly in the attempt. He has the charisma deficit that Dole had against Clinton and all Democrats had against Reagan.

 

Thing is, Kerry seems incapable of defining himself, which means Bush has as good a chance as any of doing it. Bush can't be defined by Kerry as he has a track record.

 

You need to INSPIRE people to get out and vote. If they don't feel a lot of passion for the candidate, you have a problem --- and nothing indicates even an iota of passion for Kerry.

-=Mike

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

You're STILL ignoring Bush's total lack of charisma. Kerry, at least, is a decent debator. Bush looks so horribly awkward on the podium that with those two on the same stage, no one will think very negatively about Kerry's charisma.

[BX 0]

The US Chamber of Commerce?

 

What the hell?

 

If the local Chamber of Commerce stuck their nose into local elections, one of the candidates would cut out their power. They can stick their helpful community resources & information elsewhere.

 

So where does this information come from, Mike? I'd be interested to see this.

[Guest Agent of Oblivion]

Bush's personality comes across in a weird way though. There's as many people who think he's a likeable, electable kinda guy as there are who paint him as a cross eyed oil-swilling retard.

 

Kerry just has this overall blandness that renders him completely inoffensive and sterile.

 

The VPs are so much better. Cheney has this awesome arch-villian "the emperor" vibe to him, where Edwards is a crooked lawyer gladhand. THOSE debates are going to be a good time, whereas the presidential ones will be more like old goats cracking heads.

[Guest MikeSC]

The US Chamber of Commerce?

 

What the hell?

 

If the local Chamber of Commerce stuck their nose into local elections, one of the candidates would cut out their power. They can stick their helpful community resources & information elsewhere.

 

So where does this information come from, Mike? I'd be interested to see this.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB...Ffree%5Ffeature

 

The US Chamber of Commerce is going to trash them, badly. And what can the Dems do? "Shut their power"? Yeah, that won't cause them even MORE problems.

-=Mike

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Bush comes across best on the stump, whereas Kerry looks better on the podium. It seems that Kerry actually looks like he has an opinion when he has someone to disagree with. Bush, on the other hand, is great when everything is planned out for him. However, he's horrible when he has to improvise.

[BX 0]

After looking over the US Chamber of Commerce website, I'd say it's obvious that they'd support a Republican candidate, who is almost always pro-business. However, Kerry also came out earlier this year in favor of businesses, so who knows?

 

And Agent, there is a booger on your shirt.

[Guest MikeSC]

Bush comes across best on the stump, whereas Kerry looks better on the podium. It seems that Kerry actually looks like he has an opinion when he has someone to disagree with. Bush, on the other hand, is great when everything is planned out for him. However, he's horrible when he has to improvise.

Campaigns tend to be planned down to the letter. So, Bush's "weakness" won't be a problem. And Kerry doesn't come across as an "off the cuff" kind of guy, either.

 

And, sadly, Kery is going to have problems because, outside of debates, he won't have anybody to disagree with him on much of anything.

-=Mike

[Guest Agent of Oblivion]

Kerry's head is shaped like a muppet, but I can't place which one. Bush looks simian.

 

Edwards is definitely the best looking of the bunch. Sounds unimportant, but looks play a great deal into charisma. Look at Kennedy/Nixon.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Kerry doesn't seem like he'd be good when it isn't planned out, but he is. I think it forces him to not sit there and rehearse the whole thing over and over again in his boring monotone. He puts passion into the debates, and let's face it: most people choose their candidate based on the debates. So, he probably won't have a problem there.

[Guest MikeSC]

Kerry's head is shaped like a muppet, but I can't place which one. Bush looks simian.

 

Edwards is definitely the best looking of the bunch. Sounds unimportant, but looks play a great deal into charisma. Look at Kennedy/Nixon.

Edwards doesn't have tons of substance. He's a lightweight with almost no public service experience and a long track record of tort law that is going to be a bitch to have avoid exploited like there is no tomorrow. Americans hate lawyers even more than pols.

Kerry doesn't seem like he'd be good when it isn't planned out, but he is. I think it forces him to not sit there and rehearse the whole thing over and over again in his boring monotone. He puts passion into the debates, and let's face it: most people choose their candidate based on the debates. So, he probably won't have a problem there.

Bush has mastered the art of lowering expectations. The man is exceptionally intelligent and has few qualms about people believing otherwise. He has the huge advantage that the two big issues, terrorism and economy, appear to be very much in his favor.

-=Mike

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Bush has mastered the art of lowering expectations. The man is exceptionally intelligent and has few qualms about people believing otherwise. He has the huge advantage that the two big issues, terrorism and economy, appear to be very much in his favor.

 

On what do you base this opinion?

 

Because as recently as two weeks ago, multiple polls had Kerry leading or tied with Bush on both of those issues.

[Guest MikeSC]

Bush has mastered the art of lowering expectations. The man is exceptionally intelligent and has few qualms about people believing otherwise. He has the huge advantage that the two big issues, terrorism and economy, appear to be very much in his favor.

 

On what do you base this opinion?

 

Because as recently as two weeks ago, multiple polls had Kerry leading or tied with Bush on both of those issues.

Because the economy is rebounding in a major way and we'll be slowly pulling out of Iraq.

 

It's going to be hard for Kerry to constantly claim that things are getting worse when they clearly aren't.

-=Mike

[BX 0]

"This has been tough weeks in that country." —George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., April 13, 2004

 

"Then you wake up at the high school level and find out that the illiteracy level of our children are appalling." —George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., Jan. 23, 2004

 

 

When you say stupid shit like that, it's easy to see why Bush is a "master at lowering expectations". But then again, so is Eugene.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Bush has mastered the art of lowering expectations. The man is exceptionally intelligent and has few qualms about people believing otherwise. He has the huge advantage that the two big issues, terrorism and economy, appear to be very much in his favor.

 

On what do you base this opinion?

 

Because as recently as two weeks ago, multiple polls had Kerry leading or tied with Bush on both of those issues.

Because the economy is rebounding in a major way and we'll be slowly pulling out of Iraq.

 

It's going to be hard for Kerry to constantly claim that things are getting worse when they clearly aren't.

-=Mike

Except the economy has been "rebounding" for months and months now, and yet, people STILL percieve it as being "bad".

 

Do you suddenly think that people will have a dramatic shift of opinion between now and July? They're still going to equate "Bush" with "recession", and all the democrats need to do is bring up the net job growth for an easy victory. Recent months aside, there is little chance Bush will have a net positive job growth by November. That issue is not a good one for Bush to bring up. He should run on the same thing that won it for the Repugs in 2002, and that's fear mongering; however, I'm not so sure that's even gonna work at this point.

[Guest MikeSC]

Except the economy has been "rebounding" for months and months now, and yet, people STILL percieve it as being "bad".

Because it's still being decried by the Dems as a bad economy and Bush isn't quite getting the good economy blowjob Clinton got in the press.

Do you suddenly think that people will have a dramatic shift of opinion between now and July? They're still going to equate "Bush" with "recession", and all the democrats need to do is bring up the net job growth for an easy victory. Recent months aside, there is little chance Bush will have a net positive job growth by November. That issue is not a good one for Bush to bring up. He should run on the same thing that won it for the Repugs in 2002, and that's fear mongering; however, I'm not so sure that's even gonna work at this point.

People vote with their pocketbooks and wallets. And they'll be better in November. And lord knows Kerry hasn't presented an idea that works.

-=Mike

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Oh, please. Don't even pretend there weren't "GREAT ECONOMIC GROWTH!!!" headlines after the overblown Q1 numbers were released... until they were revised downward, anyway.

[Gert T 0]

Is it really that much of a debate about Cheney won't be the VP?

 

I understand the thinking he may be a detriment to the GWB campaign, but Bush is loyal and sticks to his guns, so I would be shocked if he went with someone else.

[Guest MikeSC]

Oh, please. Don't even pretend there weren't "GREAT ECONOMIC GROWTH!!!" headlines after the overblown Q1 numbers were released... until they were revised downward, anyway.

Still the most robust growth in many years. And nobody is calling Kerry on his constant claim of how bad Bush's economic plan has been. He only inherited a recession and the biggest corporate scandal since the S & L scandal.

Is it really that much of a debate about Cheney won't be the VP?

 

I understand the thinking he may be a detriment to the GWB campaign, but Bush is loyal and sticks to his guns, so I would be shocked if he went with someone else.

I wish it was more of a debate, but I doubt there is much discussion about dumping him.

-=Mike

[Justice 0]

I'm gonna call bullshit on Tyler and Bush's "Lack" of charisma. He may not come off as the smartest person, yes, I'll agree. But to say that he has no charisma or that he is on-level with Kerry for charisma is just stupid. Bush has a very homey, common-man feel. His poll numbers are down, yes, but he's still virtually tied with Kerry despite tons of things going wrong for him. His charisma and general likeability (I think a while back people were asked if they like Bush personally and it came out as 60-40) is saving him from falling into a deeper pit.

 

Hell, look at his favorability right now:

 

 

He's still doing moderately well. Meanwhile, CHENEY is closing in on Kerry's numbers.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Annenburg? I'm not familiar with that polling outfit.

 

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm

 

From the same source as your graph, with many different poll sources.

 

And then, there's this:

 

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

 

Polling Report is great, by the way. The poll I referenced earlier about Kerry being trusted more in like, everything is on there.

 

 

 

Also, the Annenburg poll you mentioned has a very weird methodology for the favorability ratings. It's not a "yes vs. no" answer at all; it's a "rate from 1-10" answer, and thus, can't be taken the same way as a normal favorability ratings poll. Most favorability polls I've seen have Bush's negatives in the 40's and Kerry's "unknown" numbers in the 20's (but negatives only in the 20's, too.)

[Justice 0]

Indeed. That's where I got it from.

 

And most of them put him around 51-53%, barring the NYT/CBS poll, which is a pretty big outlier (Robbie, maybe that's what Mike was referring to when it comes to playing down cons and playing up libs). He's still doing moderately well at the moment. I don't see where you come off as calling him very uncharismatic, though. Seriously, though, Bush might be polarizing, but I don't think he lacks charisma at all. I think that's probably his biggest advantage over Kerry one-on-one.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Like I said, he comes off as remotely bearable on the stump, but he's absolutely horrible when he has to think for himself. Just look at the debates in 2000 and his press conferences where he actually had to answer questions; he looks like he's gonna cry half the time. He's about as boring a speaker as Kerry is.

 

The difference between the two is truly negligable.

[Guest FrigidSoul]

Heaven forbid you vote for a man who isn't charasmatic. I mean so long as they have a great smile and come off as somebody you'd want to hang out with then there's no need for good ideas on how to change things. Pretty sad when people are voting for charisma over intelligence.

 

During Bush's presidency I've learned that allowing a man who can't even send his daughters in the right direction during their youth isn't a good choice to lead the country. Never mind the fact he was a coke head and has DUIs all over the place...that game show host smile sure looks good and hides the fact there's nothing going on up in that part of his head where most people have a brain.

[Jobber of the Week 0]

You're STILL ignoring Bush's total lack of charisma.

I thought Bush had great charisma as a governor. Sure, his screwups were fodder for the late night comics, and still are, but he seemed very promising with all this talk of bipartisan efforts and raising above the shitflinging and blah blah blah. Turns out this whole plan hinges on the Democrats shutting up and nodding their head at every Republican proposal, but it sure sounded good at the time.

 

 

President Bush is a warmonger that some wager ought to be a criminal. Governor Bush was a nice guy seemed to really want to change the tone in Washington, if you'll just forgive that whole "McCain's illegitimate black child" thing.

 

Still, Governor and President Bush are both holding 50% against Dems with the personality of a brick wall, which kind of makes me question the "personality counts" thing anymore. It'll be interesting to see if Edwards changes anything. If he can look like the better man once Halliburton Dick waves the "WAR WAR WAR FEAR FEAR FEAR TERROR TERROR TERROR" flag at the debate, it could get interesting.

[Guest MikeSC]

Heaven forbid you vote for a man who isn't charasmatic. I mean so long as they have a great smile and come off as somebody you'd want to hang out with then there's no need for good ideas on how to change things. Pretty sad when people are voting for charisma over intelligence.

Well, they did graduate FROM THE SAME SCHOOL.

During Bush's presidency I've learned that allowing a man who can't even send his daughters in the right direction during their youth isn't a good choice to lead the country.

Because, God knows, kids do EXACTLY what their parents say 24/7. Have you done things your parents disapprove of at any point?

Never mind the fact he was a coke head and has DUIs all over the place...

"All over the place" being one in 1976.

that game show host smile sure looks good and hides the fact there's nothing going on up in that part of his head where most people have a brain.

Insulting John Edwards like that is awfully petty.

-=Mike

[Guest FrigidSoul]

Heaven forbid you vote for a man who isn't charasmatic. I mean so long as they have a great smile and come off as somebody you'd want to hang out with then there's no need for good ideas on how to change things. Pretty sad when people are voting for charisma over intelligence.

Well, they did graduate FROM THE SAME SCHOOL.

Are you seriously implying that just because they went to the same school that they are equally intelligent and one person going to a school couldn't possibly be smarter than another person going to that same school? Emphasis on serious, because you did imply it either way...so I want to know if it was sarcasm or actually feeling that way.

 

During Bush's presidency I've learned that allowing a man who can't even send his daughters in the right direction during their youth isn't a good choice to lead the country.

Because, God knows, kids do EXACTLY what their parents say 24/7. Have you done things your parents disapprove of at any point?

My father is neither president, nor did he strike it rich in the oil bussiness which could have allowed him to place me in programs to keep me away from trouble. I also know you'll try saying it doesn't matter, but it does. We both know that people with money and intelligence can keep their children out of harm's way. Bush has money...I'll leave it at that.

 

Never mind the fact he was a coke head and has DUIs all over the place...

"All over the place" being one in 1976.

You don't dispute the fact he's a coke head though. We're making progress Mike. Stick with me and we'll go places. Going back to the DUIs he was charged once, but I'm willing to wager he was pulled over for it a couple of other times and got off with it. Just as I'm sure Ted Kennedy's gotten away with it too. Just thought I'd make that clear so you don't pull out the biased stuff.

 

that game show host smile sure looks good and hides the fact there's nothing going on up in that part of his head where most people have a brain.

Insulting John Edwards like that is awfully petty.

We both know who I really spoke of, still if you want to go that route then ok. At least John Kerry would be running things and not nodding and smiling like a gasceous baby while the vice president says "Go play with your action figures, I've got big people work to handle here".