The Countdown to Beltran with Yankees Topic

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

sheets is a free agent? why the hell is everyone talking about clement and pavano and perez then? get his ass.

[Guest cpac]

I dont want navarro on the major league team next year. I rather have him get another year in triple A. All he is going to do is ride the bench next year if he were on the Yankees.

[The Man in Blak 0]

In that case, they could sign John Flaherty or Brent Mayne for the league minimum. Or, if they were feeling adventurous, go grab Josh Bard off the free agent market. Given Bard's "stunted development" and tap out to Victor Martinez, he should come cheap.

[mike546 0]

By signing Conine AND having Beltran, you'd now have to make time for Giambi and him at first place, while you can't play Giambi at irst everyday, which takes ABs away from Bernie, whos backup, Kenny Lofton, wants to start. If the Yankees signed Conine, he'd become a pinch hitter. And I'm not sure hes ready to do that when hes still a respectable hitter.

 

And no way would I sign Kennedy. He was horrible for the D-Rays pitching in a pitchers park. I'd like to see him consistent before he put in the rotation.

[Brett Favre 0]

Lofton's probably gone. But yeah, I see your point.

[The Man in Blak 0]

If the Yankees signed Conine, he'd become a pinch hitter. And I'm not sure hes ready to do that when hes still a respectable hitter.

The man's thirty-eight years old and, while he's still productive, he's beginning to decline. He's at the stage of his career where he's going to contribute more to a team as a bat off the bench and an occasional starter in the field. Unless some team like the Marlins ridiculously overrates him and gives him a starter's contract, I think that's a pretty realistic evaluation of his prospects, which is why I picked him.

 

In terms of the Giambi/Bernie debate, consider Conine an insurance policy. The health of both guys is in question, so Conine gives the Yankees a guy that can play the field competently and hit above replacement level. Plus, if you decide to DH Giambi exclusively, that means putting Bernie at the corner and call me crazy, but Bernie Williams isn't going to emerge as a gold glover at the corner after playing in the outfield for most (if not all) of his career.

 

If Giambi or Bernie are healthy, you put Conine on the bench and you don't worry about it because, out of those three, he's probably the lesser offensive threat. And, as far as Lofton's concerned, he should have known what he was getting into when he signed on board.

 

And no way would I sign Kennedy. He was horrible for the D-Rays pitching in a pitchers park. I'd like to see him consistent before he put in the rotation.

 

Yeah, and he was fantastic last year in a hitter's park. He wasn't horrible for the D-Rays - his third year was awful, but he pitched at the league average his first two years, with ERA+ scores of 101 and 99. Plus, he's only 25 years old right now, which means the Yankees would be getting him in his prime. Perhaps $4-6 million was a little expensive, but I still feel he's a great gamble (more so than Brown was this year).

[mike546 0]

I see your point, but I just can't see Joe Kennedy starting for the Yankees in a playoff series. Maybe I'm just used to reliable starters, but I just can't see it.

 

I'd think Wells, even at his age, would be a smarter choice. I don't think hes going to cost much for one year. Kennedy is younger, but the Yankees want to win now, not in 2 or 3 years.

 

What corner is Bernie going to with Sheff and Matsui?

[the max 0]

I'd guess that they'd stick Matsui in center and Old Man Bernie in left.

 

And you want reliable starters, even though Jon Lieber was a postseason starter...interesting. Not saying he didn't do a good job, but he wasn't really reliable before the playoffs.

 

I can see the Yanks overpaying for Wells.

[Brett Favre 0]

Beltran is going to play center. So Bernie will DH.

[mike546 0]

Lieber was reliable for the last two months of the season.

 

But Giambi can't play first everyday. And because of this, he'll HAVE to play more games at first, which means a whole lot less D.

 

How can they put Matsui in CF if Beltrans there?

[the max 0]

How can they put Matsui in CF if Beltrans there?

How can they put Beltran there if they haven't signed him yet?

[mike546 0]

By signing Conine AND having Beltran, you'd now have to make time for Giambi and him at first place, while you can't play Giambi at irst everyday, which takes ABs away from Bernie, whos backup, Kenny Lofton, wants to start. If the Yankees signed Conine, he'd become a pinch hitter. And I'm not sure hes ready to do that when hes still a respectable hitter.

 

I'm saying if they do sign Beltran, somebody's losing ABs.

[Brett Favre 0]

How can they put Matsui in CF if Beltrans there?

How can they put Beltran there if they haven't signed him yet?

Lets not get silly now. You know the name of this thread.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

There's no real way to gut this team or even cut the payroll to $125 million. As always, the Yankees will dip into the free agent market and have their choice picks of the pool. There's plenty of options out there: Carlos Beltran, Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, Ben Sheets, Jeff Kent (assuming Houston declines the $9 million option for 2005), Guillermo Mota, Octavio Dotel, Roberto Alomar, Billy Wagner (if Philly declines the $9 million option for 2005), Troy Percival, Ray King, Jason Marquis, Bret Boone, Craig Counsell, Placido Polanco or even Jeff Conine (if the Marlins decline his $4.75 million option) are out there to fill up the holes in the 'pen, at CF, at 2B, or on the bench.

 

First off, Ben Sheets is NOT a free agent to be. I don't think he's eligible until after the 2007 season. Same deal with Joe Kennedy. Mota's not eligible until after next season. Boone's option kicked in, and he's owed $8 Million in Seattle. Marquis has until 2006 before he reaches free agency. Ray King also has until after next season to reach eligibility.

 

Here's a list of potential free agents...

 

http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/05agency.html

[The Man in Blak 0]

Well, fuck. Now I'm going to have to re-do the whole list again.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Okay, so nine players for the Yankees, within quasi-realistic budget constraints:

• Carlos Beltran (OF)
• Matt Clement (Starter - RHP)
• Odalis Perez (Starter - LHP)
• Placido Polando (2B/SS/3B)
• Wilson Alvarez (Long Relief/Spot Starter - LHP)
• Tino Martinez (Backup 1B/Left-Handed Bat)
• Gregg Zaun (Backup C)
• Todd Walker (Backup 2B/Left-Handed Bat)
• Danny Bautista (Backup Corner OF/Right-Handed Bat)

[mike546 0]

I think Odaliz lost a TON of money with the postseason he had.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

If they want to make a judgement based on two starts, all the better. With his pitiful run support, he's tremendously undervalued. He sounds like a pitcher the Blue Jays might make a run for, quite honestly.

[mike546 0]

And I think all Yankee fans want Tino back. Screw Giambi and his contract, Tino would be the perfect fit. Sure hes declining, but he'd be a great clubhouse presince, and bring a good glove.

 

If your the Yankees, do you trade Giambi, eat most of his contract, and bring in Tino? They sure as hell would pay for it, but it'd work out in the field, and allow everybody to get the playing time they need.

 

Highly unlikey? Yes.

 

Impossible? No.

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

there is no possible way they could get anyone to take Giambi.

[Guest cpac]

I want no part of odalis perez he is a gutless pussy just like vasquez and kevin brown. I also want no part of wilson alvarez and greg zaun. I rather see the yankees keep flaherty for another year. He is not the greatest but when he does play he does produce and no you're not going to see that from his numbers.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Translation: "I want the Yankees to win another championship, but I don't want them to sign talented players. They should keep their talentless backup catcher. He's productive, and I am going to stick my head in the sand and ignore this stuff called evidence."

 

I wish the Yankees would put this guy in charge of the team, actually.

[Guest cpac]

Yeah Odaliz Perez is really talented. I love the playoffs he had. And Wilson Alvarez he is only the second coming of Cy Young. Stupid me how can I not realize true talent in players like Greg Zaun.

[The Man in Blak 0]

I know that a lot of Yankee fans would prefer bringing back Boomer to be the lefty in the rotation, but here's a couple of reasons why Odalis Perez is a better option:

 

- No injury concerns. It's true that David Wells had a great deal of success while wearing the Yankee pinstripes, but he also took his team out of Game 5 of the 2003 World Series with an early exit due to back problems. Wells is 41 years old and, while his age and "conditioning" make him a cheap option, it doesn't necessarily make him a good bargain. Perez, on the other hand

 

- Odalis Perez is 27 years old. Numerous analyses have shown that the breakout period for players lies in the 27-28 age realm and that peak performance usually carries on until around 30-32. Wells and Perez are going to come at comparable prices but, while the risks for Wells are considerably higher (injury, completely falling off due to age), the rewards for Perez could be higher, as a three year deal would position the Yankees into getting the three best years of Odaliz Perez's career.

 

- Postseason sample size isn't necessarily reliable. In his first postseason as a starter (1995), David Wells went 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. You isolate those stats by themselves and conclude that Wells was merely average in the postseason, being unable to predict - from those two starts - that Wells is one of the most reliable playoff pitchers of the last couple of years (25-15, 3.18 ERA). This was Perez's first postseason as a starter and he got the "privilege" of facing one of the top offenses in the league and, in two starts, he got rocked. Two starts are no real indication of future performance - if anything, you could argue that the Cardinals' onslaught provided Perez with a valuable learning experience.

 

When you consider those three points, I dont really think there's an argument.

 

As far as Wilson Alvarez was concerned, he had a great year out of the pen for the Dodgers: a 1.16 WHIP in 40 games (15 starts), all while providing nearly a strikeout an inning. The ERA (4.03) is deceptive; he hovered around the threes until two straight disastrous outings at the end of August raised his ERA a full point.

 

Plus, like or not, he's the best left-handed reliever on the market and - in case you haven't noticed - that's something you really could use with Felix Heredia being the only lefty in the bullpen. Chris Hammond's had prior success with the Yankees, but he's older. Steve Kline was very efficient as a LOOGY this year, but he's got an injury history and a ton of work in recent years. Terry Mulholland is ancient and, while gutsy and "crafty", ultimately not that good anymore.

 

Regarding Gregg Zaun, he's better than Flaherty in terms of defense, with a better CS% (.277 vs. .233) and a better CERA (4.76 to 4.93). On top of that, Zaun showed that he could hit this year - he had a higher OPS than John Flaherty (.761 to .750), primarily due to an OBP that was 81 points that Flaherty's (.365 OBP for Zaun). Zaun's not going to win the MVP anytime soon, but he is a better option than Flaherty, clutch performances or not.

[mike546 0]

Wasn't Alvarez injured near the end of the year? I remember watching Cards/Dodgers, and he couldn't start due to a bad arm or something.

 

I think there going to keep Flathery for the fact he jelled with the pitchers (only catcher Conteras pitched well with).

[The Man in Blak 0]

Alvarez had two relief appearances in the Cardinals series, so he wasn't injured. Plus, he wasn't in the regular rotation anyway, so I doubt they would have spot-started him in the playoffs, even with Penny out and Nomo pitching BP.

[Guest cpac]

I dont care what Perez and Alvarez did pitching in that pitchers park and I want no part of Greg Zaun. Flaherty might not have the best numbers but like Mike said he works well with the pitchers and his teammates like him. Plus it seemed like everytime he played he got a big hit and contributed to team even though he was the 25th man on the team. He is not going to hurt you and another year on his contract wont be bad. Especially with Navarro waiting in the wings.

[CanadianChris 0]

Perez's ERA was actually lower on the road than at home.

 

Keep trying, though; this is hilarious.

[Dr. Tom 0]

I refuse to let facts get in the way of my beliefs.

Edited for accuracy.

[Guest cpac]

You know what forget all of you. I cant stand the arrogance on this board. Dr Tom and Al Keiper think they are the baseball know it all shiznits. God forbid I have my own fucking beliefs. Big Fucking Deal. What a crime that is. I guess that makes me stupid for not wanting Odalis Perez the second coming of Pedro Martinez. You know look at how well Vasquez did in the national league? Look at how well Kevin Brown did in the national league. I guess I am a fucking moron because online geniuses like Dr. Tom and Al Keiper who spend all of their time on a fucking website say so. Well sue me for not wanting Greg piece of shit Zaun on the team I root for.