POSSIBLE problem

[Guest MikeSC]

Dick Morris on FNC made a point that isn't too far off, but might be needed:

 

The exit polls MUST be investigated --- by the gov't, if needed. He argued that the polls were extremely out of whack and, according to Morris, it is unbelievably difficult to screw up an exit poll, so it almost definitely had to be deliberate. And that it was done to try and keep the Bush vote down (I don't deny that I got down when I saw the numbers --- even though some seemed WAY out of whack).

 

The press BETTER investigate this, and if they won't, the Congress might have to. The polls were way too off, leaked way too early, and this is a problem.

-=Mike

[bob_barron 0]

New Jersey, North Carolina and Virginia all seemed to be way off.

 

Any others?

[JoeDirt 0]

People also shouldn't take them to be absolute fact when it's based on a sample. Sure, they shouldn't have been off as much as they were, but anyone who thought Kerry had Florida won because exit polls said he was up one percent at 2:00 was a little too eager to jump to conclusions.

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

New Jersey, North Carolina and Virginia all seemed to be way off.

 

Any others?

Ohio and Florida were pretty bad too if I remember correctly.

 

Kerry had well over 300 electorial votes according to exit polls.

[bob_barron 0]

It was on Air Force One on election day that strategist Karl Rove started calling around to get the results of early exit polls. But the line kept breaking down. The only information that came through as the plane descended was a BlackBerry message from an aide that simply read: "Not good." Not long afterward, Rove got a more detailed picture and told the President and senior aides the bad news. Florida Governor Jeb Bush had been saying the state was looking good, and the Bush team had expected to be ahead in Ohio. But Kerry was leading everywhere. "I wanted to throw up," said an aide onboard. Bush was more philosophical: "Well, it is what it is," he told adviser Karen Hughes."

[Guest MikeSC]

New Jersey, North Carolina and Virginia all seemed to be way off.

 

Any others?

PA was a major one. FL was one. OH was one.

  People also shouldn't take them to be absolute fact when it's based on a sample. Sure, they shouldn't have been off as much as they were, but anyone who thought Kerry had Florida won because exit polls said he was up one percent at 2:00 was a little too eager to jump to conclusions.

Morris' point was that it is unbelievably hard to botch exit polls like they were botched.

-=Mike

[bob_barron 0]

PA was weird because the early polling has Kerry WAY up (High 60s) which was really weird and then the vote total ended up 51-49 which is not bad at all.

 

I still want to know how they could call NJ so early

[Guest Anglesault]

according to Morris, it is unbelievably difficult to screw up an exit poll,

Now, now Mike. You should know by now that if it can be done, we will do it.

[therealworldschampion 0]

I still want to know how they could call NJ so early

 

(As an NJ resident, this calls for a cheap shot)

 

One of McGreevey's "friends" must run the exit polls here.

 

GOP drew 1.5 million votes which is extremely suprising and only lost by 5 points. This looks extremely good for the 2005 governor's race if they can keep the momentum.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

PA was weird because the early polling has Kerry WAY up (High 60s) which was really weird and then the vote total ended up 51-49 which is not bad at all.

Like I said before, with PA the results from Pittsburgh and Philly always come in first, giving the Democrat candidate a HUGE early lead. When the rest of the state submits their returns the lead gets vanquished. The exit polls probably tilted heavily for these urban areas, which explains the big advantage Kerry had.

 

I admit I bit on these damn polls. I was certain Kerry was going to win. My thoughts began to change when I heard this exchange later in the night.

 

Jim Angle was interviewing some Bush guy and he was really excited about Florida and running off all these voter figures that showed improvements in Bush's performances there from 2000. They then turned to Carl Cameron who had Joe Lockhart on and all he was saying is that lots of black people where showing up. I lol in 2004 when I heard his reasoning...

[Prime Time Andrew Doyle 0]

What exactly is an exit poll?

[Special K 0]

I think it's fairly simple. People with regular, 9-5 jobs are more likely to be Republican. People who can just bebop over to the polls 9:00AM on a Tuesday are more likely to be Democrat. 'Struth.

[Guest MikeSC]

What exactly is an exit poll?

Basically, firms hire pollsters to stand outside voting places to ask voters who they voted for, why they did, etc. They are, normally, the most accurate polls on Earth.

 

One of the rumors is that the earliest numbers originated from the Kerry campaign and weren't based on anything --- but it is only a rumor.

-=Mike

[Special K 0]

No one thinks my theory, that unemployed people (or people working a shitty swing shift at a fast food joint) just MIGHT think the economy's tanking and people working a steady 9-5, who can't vote till they're off work just MIGHT think things are going pretty OK? That's a lot more believable than Kerry making shit up, to me at least.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

It's not just your theory, K. Another common perception that many people use is the "I'm may be doing OK in this economy, but I don't know about my neighbor down the street."

 

Funny enough, during the Clinton "boom" years, I worked shitty dead-end jobs. In fact, I'm pretty sure that both jobs I worked at Sappy Valley have since been eliminated. I'm also certain that my job I worked in Ohio is going to go the way of the DoDo in another year or so...

[Dr. Tom 0]

One of the rumors is that the earliest numbers originated from the Kerry campaign and weren't based on anything --- but it is only a rumor.

-=Mike

I heard a rumor that the Kerry campaign had people taking the polls who hadn't voted at those locations. Just Kerry supporters who got into the buildings via a back door, then walked out the front door and took an exit poll just like they'd voted. Just a rumor, but it is an interesting one.